Malyasian Flight missing - MH370

[BigMikeH77 0]

That's very interesting. And also contradicts the Malaysian military. Smack Dab in the middle of the south China Sea. That's not anyones airspace, is it?

[billvon 2,991]

>Even if this 777 had a catastrophic power failure, the reserve system could keep
>it in the air for another hour, assuming the engines still functioned.

Or -

They run out of fuel. During the ensuing panic they lose track of their heading, and during the few restarts they manage they drift east. They lose mode C when the RAT first deploys and never try the radio.

Pilot error, historically, has been the cause of most such accidents.

[LuckyMcSwervy 0]

I really hope it's this aircraft the Chinese satellite has purportedly captured. If the seas are as shallow in this area as I've read, I'd think that would bode well for recovery efforts if this does, in fact, prove to be the wreckage.

By the way, the satellite image they're now parading about to the world is 3 days old.

Always be kinder than you feel.

[grue 1]

LuckyMcSwervy

By the way, the satellite image they're now parading about to the world is 3 days old.

RobertMBlevins

Yeah...it's going to piss a lot of people off that the Chinese didn't release that image when they got it. Or maybe they didn't recognize it for what it was until now. We will hope it's the latter.

Here's a fun exercise for those who think it should have been faster:

Go outside with even your smartphone, tell someone to hide a backpack somewhere barely within view. Take about 800 photos to cover everything.

Find the backpack.

cavete terrae.

[Amazon 7]

BigMikeH77

That's very interesting. And also contradicts the Malaysian military. Smack Dab in the middle of the south China Sea. That's not anyones airspace, is it?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ce/9_dotted_line.png

Anyone not taking into account the current tensions betwixt the Chinese AND all of the countries surrounding that so called 9 dotted line area that the Chinese are claiming... would be very foolish indeed.
You can bet this will figure in at some point.

[craddock 0]

RobertMBlevins

Bob Woodruff was the one who reported the incoming letter from the oil rig worker. I tweeted him: Pin down exact time letter was sent. If it predates the release of the Chinese sat image, letter could be valid.

It was about 2:30 CST when I first heard of Woodruffs report and and actual image of the email.
.

That spot isn't bad at all, the winds were strong and that was the issue! It was just on the downwind side.

[craddock 0]

I correct what I said now that I think about it. That time was earlier when I first heard and saw the email from Mike Mackay. It was not until later when Woodruff confirmed it(or when I heard he did) as authentic. The time you were looking for was the first one just wanted to correct the way I worded it

That spot isn't bad at all, the winds were strong and that was the issue! It was just on the downwind side.

[billvon 2,991]

>You can bet this will figure in at some point.

The smart money is on pilot error.

[quade 4]

RobertMBlevins

Flight had about seven hours' fuel remaining when the transponder ceased to transmit. At the typical cruising speed of 640MPH, that's over four thousand miles.

You do realize there's no law of physics that says all of that couldn't be flown in circles a hundred miles in diameter; right?

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[Amazon 7]

billvon

>You can bet this will figure in at some point.

The smart money is on pilot error.

Just factoring in two of the major protagonists in a deteriorating situation over the resources in the disputed area and that very specific area this whole thing is going on. Even when and if the wreckage is found.. OR if the plane was disappeared to Indonesia by hijackers... it will be a bullet point on the list of grievances on both countries Power Point briefings.

[yoink 321]

RobertMBlevins

Flight had about seven hours' fuel remaining when the transponder ceased to transmit.

How do you know that?


I just got a flight back from New York to San Diego that had to divert mid flight because they put the wrong amount of fuel in....

AND there was what I considered a near miss on that flight - less than half a mile, head on, same level. Not sure what the FAA considers 'close' to be, but it scared the shit out of me.

[LuckyMcSwervy 0]

I received a Breaking News alert a few minutes ago that the 777 debris wasn't found at the location the Chinese satellite designated as suspect.

Always be kinder than you feel.

[craddock 0]

Andy Pasztor with WSJ has reported that ACARS data has indicated that it stayed in the air for four hours past last known location. This is from engine data sent automatically to Rolls Royce.

That spot isn't bad at all, the winds were strong and that was the issue! It was just on the downwind side.

[quade 4]

RobertMBlevins

If it had been circling for thousands of miles and in the air for hours more until its fuel ran out...it would have been noticed by radar.

That's not certain by any means.

I can absolutely guarantee you there are aircraft that fly thousands of miles every day out of range of radar and are never noticed by it . . . because they aren't in radar range.

Again, there is nothing certain about this incident yet other than the fact the plane can't be found and along with it, anything even remotely factual in terms of what would explain it.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[LuckyMcSwervy 0]

I just read that. I don't know how I missed it previously. 4 hours. Hmmm...

Always be kinder than you feel.

[quade 4]

yoink

AND there was what I considered a near miss on that flight - less than half a mile, head on, same level. Not sure what the FAA considers 'close' to be, but it scared the shit out of me.

1,000 foot vertical within 5 miles. Anything inside of that is a big deal during cruise flight. Obviously gets a bit closer during parallel runway ops for arrivals.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[craddock 0]

quade

That's not certain by any means.

I can absolutely guarantee you there are aircraft that fly thousands of miles every day out of range of radar and are never noticed by it . . . because they aren't in radar range.

Again, there is nothing certain about this incident yet other than the fact the plane can't be found and along with it, anything even remotely factual in terms of what would explain it.

Still if the plane flew for an additional 4 hours after last contact as now being reported, with everyone looking for it, it is odd it would not be picked up on someones radar. You have to admit that.

That spot isn't bad at all, the winds were strong and that was the issue! It was just on the downwind side.

[quade 4]

craddock

Still if the plane flew for an additional 4 hours after last contact as now being reported, with everyone looking for it, it is odd it would not be picked up on someones radar. You have to admit that.

No. Depending on the direction it may have taken it's entirely possible it's half way to Madagascar and in a location absolutely nobody will EVER look for it. Ever. Not now, not never, not ever. And almost the entire time it would be completely out of radar contact.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[BigMikeH77 0]

Hopefully there will be more details available in the morning.

[normiss 800]

Only 60% to 70% chance though, correct?
(IIRC, it's almost 70% pilot error)

[yoink 321]

More weirdness

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26559627


Jet sent engine data 4 hours after last contact - apparently not

Quote

Mr Hussein also denied a report in the Wall Street Journal that the plane had sent engine data to the ground for more than four hours after it lost contact with air traffic control.

He said that his team had spoken to Malaysian Airlines and Rolls-Royce, the engine's manufacturers, who both said the report was "inaccurate".

China had satellite pictures of the crash site - apparently not.

Quote

Mr Hussein told reporters at Kuala Lumpur International Airport that the Chinese embassy in the Malaysian capital had said the satellite images were released by mistake and "did not show any debris from MH370".

So many conflicting stories that it becomes hard to see what is just crap journalism in a rush to get a 'fact' out, and what are possible excuses or real events from responsible, knowledgeable parties.

[lawrocket 3]

[Reply] crap journalism in a rush to get a 'fact' out, and what are possible excuses or real events from responsible, knowledgeable parties.

[wmw999 2,446]

24-hour news, baby. If you have 24 hours to report, you gotta find 24 hours worth of "content."

Which is why you have stories like
"We think something is happening in this building. No one will confirm it, but as soon as someone does we'll let you know. Until then, here's Dave with commentary on what might be happening."

Wendy P.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[craddock 0]

Very true and funny indeed.

But when you have seasoned reporters like Andy Pasztor that are extremely respected talking about ACARS transmissions received everyone tends to listen. He is not the kind of guy known to fabricate information and is extremely knowledgeable and respected in the aviation community. He would be the reporter we would want to cover one of our incidents given the choice. Malaysia has contradicted him and said no transmissions received by Boeing or RR after they lost contact but many are skeptical of that yet, putting more faith in this journalist than that.

And now the US Navy is sending a ship under maximum power to the Indian ocean where they claim the plane is. Remember the plane was Northeast off of Malaysia when is disappeared.

And I almost ribbed Quade for his "halfway to Madagascar" comment thinking he was not aware that it was flying the opposite direction And how would it get back to the Indian Ocean undetected!? Imagine if this plane flew right back over Malaysia without them knowing!? Something they are covering up. US seems pretty confident it ended up West as of the info we have at this second.

Crazy.

That spot isn't bad at all, the winds were strong and that was the issue! It was just on the downwind side.

[quade 4]

craddock

And I almost ribbed Quade for his "halfway to Madagascar" comment ...

Again, some people hadn't applied enough imagination to the possibilities.

People have a tendency to grasp onto the first thing they see that fits their pre-existing theory and then are locked into confirmation bias.

I'm not saying it IS half way to Madagascar, but it was an increasing possibility the second we saw the direction of the previously reported turn back.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver