Innovation has died???

[Nataly 38]

A very interesting conversation we had at work the other day... On the one hand, one of my colleagues was stating that there was an imminent revolution about to happen because people today were so much more connected than before - communication, he said, has made everything accessible to everyone and this will lead to some BIG changes.

My other colleague said no: we have greater access to more junk than ever before... We recycle ideas instead of coming up with our own. Consider the beginning of the 20th century compared to the end of it... Huge strides of progress compared to homogenisation and disposability... Yes, everyone can now get on a plane, but these planes existed 50 years ago. Where are the super-jets? Why are we not being teleported anywhere? Why is life expectancy still the same - why have we not come up with something REALLY innovative like getting younger, curing cancer, et cetera, et cetera...

So where do you stand on the spectrum?? We're NOT using our brains and accomplishing nothing of great worth or we're on the brink of MAJOR breakthroughs??

"There is no problem so bad you can't make it worse."
- Chris Hadfield
« Sors le martinet et flagelle toi indigne contrôleuse de gestion. »
- my boss

[Squeak 17]

innovation (revolution) comes in waves.
Industrial, Economic, Scientific, Electronic etc..

The start of the 20th century ushered in BIG macro innovations, the end so many mico (electronic) innovations
Also everything and everyone is now answering to big business, (secrecy clauses, non competition agreements etc...) so the sharing of ideas has become much more limited compared to previous times.


Innovation hasn't died, it has just become more covert.

You are not now, nor will you ever be, good enough to not die in this sport (Sparky)
My Life ROCKS!
How's yours doing?

[Skyrad 0]

I think that collectively we are not as bright as our ancestors, human intelligence has passed its zenith and our reliance on immersive entertainment has removed the stimuli for development of a fertile imagination. The above factors combined with the western culture of risk aversion and a general inability to make a decision without first having a meeting to reach the lowest common denominator of consensus opinion with which one can cover ones arse has lead us to a dark age in innovation.
Not until a computer is capable of imagining matched with true AI will we see innovation return to the West, the next great strides are likely to come from the up and coming BRIC nations and their neighbours, as they say necessity is the mother of invention and quite simply we have it to cushy in the West today just happily consuming away with welfare state crash nets below us.
Now that said, we are living in the information age, and to make the breakthroughs in technology that we need now will take collaborative working, the arse covering culture I spoke about earlier slows progress down immensely but all the time little bricks are being created and added to the knowledge base upon which we climb upwards towards the next breakthrough. Will one person discover teleportation? Unlikely but if they do it will be because of generations of discoveries and little breakthroughs that gave them all of the required pieces. We stand upon the shoulders of giants, there is no real giants anymore but lots of little people standing on one another's shoulders eventually equates to one giant in towering achievement.

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

[adamUK 3]

There was an interesting article in the Economist on this topic too.

[IanHarrop 42]

Things have changed... you just haven't noticed

I am not going to go through each thing. and obviously real teleporting is still only a dream clicky

but as for life expectancy, on a global basis it has changed

- In 1900, global average lifespan was just 31 years, and below 50 years in even the richest countries
- By the mid--20th century, average life expectancy rose to 48 years
- In 2005, average lifespan reached 65.6 years; over 80 years in some countries

Planes have now been around for over 100 hundred years but things have changed a bunch in the last 50 years. In the 1960s air travel was for the "jet set", the regular folks couldn't afford it. Now we complain that the airport is so crowded...

I think the reason we don't notice change is that we've come to expect it. Change is part of our everyday.

In the 1970s I had to go through an operator to make a phone call to my parents in France from Canada. Now I Skype with my buddy who's travelling in SE Asia and staying hostels - even the $4 a night hostels have free internet there. He's using a laptop computer. When I first started programming in the early 70s a small computer was the size of a phone booth. We don't see many phone booths these days because the phone in our pockets is smaller than a pack of smokes and connects to the internet where we can watch video while we map where we are using GPS.

"Where troubles melt like lemon drops, away above the chimney tops, that's where you'll find me" Dorothy

[FlyingRhenquest 1]

Well we DO have the technology to build a flying car, but we don't have the technology yet to build a flying car that people can fly the way people drive. It's not really that useful if you have to fly it out of an airport, have a pilot's license to do so and follow the rigorous FAA maintenance schedule because you can't coast to the side of the road if the engine stops in your flying car. So there's not much point -- you can buy a used Cessna for less than I paid for my not-flying car, if you want that.

A couple of companies are experimenting with self-driving cars right now. That's more along the lines of what they were talking about in those 1950s-era newsreels, when they were talking about "the future." That's also one of the key components that you need if you're going to make a viable flying car, which really is the benchmark of "the future" when people imagined it.

Missions to other planets are now routine. We used to imagine they'd be manned. That's actually kind of odd because we used to imagine robots would be more capable than robots actually are now. But you can't tell me innovation has died when we send a robot with a freaking laser to another planet. Sure, we could send a robot to Mars in the 70's, but all it could really do is sit there.

With our recent work in genetic engineering, I think it's very likely that we'll see cures for cancer, AIDs and many other diseases within the next 10-20 years. We're starting to play with nanotechnology, too. Our early steps are not really recognizable as such, but they're already beginning to have an impact on our lives. Once the field takes off, it's literally unimaginable where it will take the species.

It's harder now to be an inventor in the sense that Ben Franklin or Thomas Jefferson were inventors. A lot of the fruit that a self-taught person with a big imagination could pick have been picked. It seems like these days you need a team working toward a goal. Even so, you still see individuals accomplishing big things. In my field, Linus Torvalds planted the seed that became Linux. Sure, it's seen thousands of contributors since he posted it, but he wrote the kernel of an entire freaking operating system on his own. Notch wrote Minecraft and made a couple million dollars for himself almost overnight. Richard Stallman has cranked out a ridiculous amount of software both on his own and by directing teams.

And have you seen what they're doing with 3D printing? You can design a 3D object with a CAD program and print that object, and upload your file so others can print it too. They're talking about eventually being able to print organs with 3D printers.

Although it's a bit harder for an individual to innovate now, it's a bit easier for them to learn. You can go out on youtube and search on The Royal Institution or Sixtysymbols and find all manner of science lectures online. I've recently sat through a couple of hour-long chemistry lectures and several shorter lectures on nuclear physics and general relativity. The Khan academy is trying to put a basic education up on youtube. If you can sit some kids in a village in Africa around a communal computer and give them a good education, that's a game changer right there.

So yeah, I'd say we're still doing stuff, it's just harder to notice with successive iterations of iPhones coming out. Even there, the cars I'm driving today are a LOT more reliable than the ones my parents used to get. The beater car I got with 140K miles on it is more reliable than a car Dad got new in the 80's. This is not something we'd easily notice because it looks like a car, but its guts are nothing like early or even recent automobiles.

I'm trying to teach myself how to set things on fire with my mind. Hey... is it hot in here?

[Nataly 38]

A lot of people are describing improvements and/or change and/or greater access to technologies... These should not be confounded with innovation. For example, the fact that many more people are able to travel by plane does not change the fact that these are pretty much the same planes/technology as 50 years ago. Same goes for cars, et cetera. One could even argue that Skype is derived from a mixture of technologies that are (relatively speaking) old. Video, the telephone, et cetera - this was innovation but isn't combining the two "just" an improvement? (I don't mean to diminish it's impact, which is why I have put "just" in quotes.) The internet - this was innovation. Faster/cheaper internet is improvement. Social networks? Ok, maybe they are innovative... But *more* social networks are not.

I don't wholly agree with either of my colleagues, by the way, but they both had some valid and very interesting points of view.


ETA: Thanks for the link, Adam - interesting read

"There is no problem so bad you can't make it worse."
- Chris Hadfield
« Sors le martinet et flagelle toi indigne contrôleuse de gestion. »
- my boss

[FlyingRhenquest 1]

You can have innovative additions to technology that exists, though. The iPhone was "just a cellphone," but it changed our thinking about phones (and that you could sell a phone that was good for just about everything EXCEPT making phone calls! )

The concepts behind Google Glass are three decades old now, but it takes that company to drive consumer acceptance of the idea. One of the early concepts with wearable computers was that an on-board camera could do facial recognition and bring up pertinent details about the person you're looking at. Potentially you could strike up a conversation with a complete stranger as if you'd known them for years. It takes a lot of pre-existing technological components to bring us this thing we have never seen before. Another thing discussed was leaving virtual tags in a digital overlay of the world for future people to see. Originally it was discussed using IR transmitters to provide your location, but now it could be done with GPS and "the cloud." You could have a blog people could only see at a bus stop, or something. Previously you needed a can of spray paint for that. Not really new, but we haven't done it in that form before.

The Internet may have been innovative, but networking came around in the 70's. It wasn't until the early 90's when several different technologies came together that the average consumer became aware of it. A few people don't think this was the best thing to happen to the Internet (see "The Eternal September",) but the things that has enabled clearly changed the world.

3D printing is clearly both innovative and potentially as much of a game-changer as the internet was. If you need an object, just add raw materials and print the object. Maybe a coffee mug. Some guy over on deviant art is experimenting with 3D printed fractals. Here's One. Actually if you search that site for "3D Print", you can see some pretty amazing things people are already using the technology for. I visit deviant art daily, because I see amazing conceptual art there frequently enough that it's worth the time.

Another thing about innovation is that frequently something happens and the general public isn't aware of it for some time. Just because we don't notice that we're innovating, doesn't mean we're not.

All it really takes is an idea. As you might tell from late-nite TV advertising, most of our ideas are crap. I'd guess upwards of 99%. But a world-changer could happen at any moment, usually by accident.

I'm trying to teach myself how to set things on fire with my mind. Hey... is it hot in here?

[sfzombie 3]

you are completely ignoring all of the innovation in the last 50 years. beside those mentioned, how about pilot-less drones launching laser guided tomahawk missiles? and there are so many more that i don't want to start a list...

http://kitswv.com

[kallend 2,148]

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you are completely ignoring all of the innovation in the last 50 years. beside those mentioned, how about pilot-less drones launching laser guided tomahawk missiles? and there are so many more that i don't want to start a list...

Hey, I have a small drone of my own, built it last Fall. No missiles though, just a GoPro. Take neat aerial photos of the neighborhood, local landmarks, etc.

I disagree than innovation is dead. It just takes different forms than 100 years ago.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[JohnMitchell 16]

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A lot of people are describing improvements and/or change and/or greater access to technologies... These should not be confounded with innovation. For example, the fact that many more people are able to travel by plane does not change the fact that these are pretty much the same planes/technology as 50 years ago.

We may be in an era of refinement and optimization. The planes from 50 years ago and today operate at 3/4 the speed of sound. Why? Because that's the best tradeoff between speed and efficiency. To go faster (supersonically) is very expensive. We all want cheap flying. Today's planes are much more efficient, reliable and safe compared to those jets of the 60's.

Same with flying cars. They've been done many times over, but they are a clunky compromise of performance at best. No one really wants one except for the impractical novelty of it all.

Teleportation? Hmmm, I've read we've done that on an atomic level. But there's still a long way to go before you shoot my molecules across the ether. Why didn't Leonardo da Vinci build a nuclear reactor? Sorry, but there are just too many pieces of the puzzle missing for some inventions to be invented . . . today.

Is there a Warp Drive a la Star Trek? Perhaps. I like to imagine there are physical principals and forces, as elementary as electricity and magnetism, that we will discover and harness. The repulsive force that seems to be accelerating the expansion of the universe? Sounds like something that could be harnessed for anti-gravity machines. But sure as hell not in my life time.

I've often said that the Egyptians could have been flying hang gliders made of wood, bamboo and papyrus if they had understood the physics of flight. They had the materials, just not the knowledge. It took until the 1790's for the Montgolfier brothers to combine old technology, fire and paper, to make the first hot air balloon ascents. What miracle of science is staring US right in the face now, in our carbon-fiber post-nuclear robotic state of technology?

So I feel like a Dutch trader of the 1600's, very comfortable in an age of sailing ships, nice pottery, oil paintings and printing presses. Life is good and comfortable. Small innovations make my life better and better, but there are no fundamental changes. In fact, I'm hard pressed to imagine what they could be. But they are on the horizon, two centuries in the future, with steam, electricity, industry and oil.

Maybe radical advances in our technology just can't be sustained. There's a leap, then a rest, then another quantum leap. One thing is for certain, though. The faster communication can occur, the faster things change.

[jackwallace 3]

The exoskeleton.
The growing of body parts.
The printing of body parts.
Magnetic ride control in cars.
Roomba.
That scary robot mule thing the military is using.
The hair club for men.

U only make 2 jumps: the first one for some weird reason and the last one that you lived through. The rest are just filler.
scr 316

[Nataly 38]

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you are completely ignoring all of the innovation in the last 50 years. beside those mentioned, how about pilot-less drones launching laser guided tomahawk missiles? and there are so many more that i don't want to start a list...

I am not completely ignoring anything - they're not even my theories!

"There is no problem so bad you can't make it worse."
- Chris Hadfield
« Sors le martinet et flagelle toi indigne contrôleuse de gestion. »
- my boss

[ryoder 1,590]

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Same with flying cars. They've been done many times over, but they are a clunky compromise of performance at best. No one really wants one except for the impractical novelty of it all.

Not true. The Russians have perfected them, and we have the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcmzgiLQVSk

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[kallend 2,148]

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Is there a Warp Drive a la Star Trek? Perhaps. I like to imagine there are physical principals and forces, as elementary as electricity and magnetism, that we will discover and harness. The repulsive force that seems to be accelerating the expansion of the universe? Sounds like something that could be harnessed for anti-gravity machines. But sure as hell not in my life time.

Possibly we'll learn something from the Higgs boson measurements being made at CERN. However, harnessing a force so small that even with our most sensitive equipment it can only be detected over intergalactic distances doesn't make me optimistic that dark energy will be harnessed for our use.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Andy9o8 2]

I have it on good authority that everything that can be invented, has been invented.

[oldwomanc6 60]

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I have it on good authority that everything that can be invented, has been invented.

That's the thing about innovation; it always looks like there can be no more, because you never see it till it is already done.... and then it looks like there will be no more.....

lisa
WSCR 594
FB 1023
CBDB 9

[FlyBear 1]

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[...] like getting younger [...]

I hope we'll never be able to get younger. Look at the world's population. Growing and growing. Imagine how it would be if we'd live on and on. More people come, less people go.

We're supposed to die one day. And for god's sake, we should not try to avoid that... We'd have to build skyscrapers as high, that skydiving would become impossible. I hope it will never get that far!

But to refer to your topic. I've thought about it myself several times. For example, I can't believe that we are still driving cars which need that huge amount of fuel and work with such small efficiency. But then I see the connection between car manufacturers and oil groups and suddenly everything seems pretty logic to me.
There is no interest in progress. Only if it's asked by the politics. If they'd involve cars that drive on solar energy, they wouldn't get the money which is left from our fossil energy reserves. Money is the key to everything. Sad but true

[Andy9o8 2]

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I hope we'll never be able to get younger.

Indeed. Imagine if there were no limit to the process. It was traumatic enough coming out; it would be so much worse going back in.

[oldwomanc6 60]

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I hope we'll never be able to get younger.

Indeed. Imagine if there were no limit to the process. It was traumatic enough coming out; it would be so much worse going back in.

Then why do men spend their entire lives trying?

lisa
WSCR 594
FB 1023
CBDB 9

[ryoder 1,590]

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I hope we'll never be able to get younger.

Indeed. Imagine if there were no limit to the process. It was traumatic enough coming out; it would be so much worse going back in.

I don't know;
Seems like only few years after they come out, most men start spending a lot of time/energy/money trying to get back in.

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[Nataly 38]

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[...] like getting younger [...]

I hope we'll never be able to get younger. Look at the world's population. Growing and growing. Imagine how it would be if we'd live on and on. More people come, less people go.

We're supposed to die one day. And for god's sake, we should not try to avoid that... We'd have to build skyscrapers as high, that skydiving would become impossible. I hope it will never get that far!

But to refer to your topic. I've thought about it myself several times. For example, I can't believe that we are still driving cars which need that huge amount of fuel and work with such small efficiency. But then I see the connection between car manufacturers and oil groups and suddenly everything seems pretty logic to me.
There is no interest in progress. Only if it's asked by the politics. If they'd involve cars that drive on solar energy, they wouldn't get the money which is left from our fossil energy reserves. Money is the key to everything. Sad but true

Yep... Whenever a patent comes out for fuel-less cars, they get bought by either oil companies or car companies... Then they collect dust until it's economically advantageous for *them* to do so... Sadly, a lot of innovation gets squashed this way because too much money is involved.

As for getting younger, I think delaying or reversing the ageing process could be a good thing in some cases... It wouldn't necessarily make us immortal, but it could significantly improve our quality of life. Imagine, for instance, if Alzheimer's disappeared... Or if elderly people didn't go blind/deaf... Or if breaking a hip was no longer a very big risk... Or if at 85 running a marathon were still possible... If you led an active, pain-free, disease-free life until you just croaked one day... Even simple things like the ability to cure or reverse baldness and/or gray hair and/or wrinkles without the need for radical/risky surgery...

"There is no problem so bad you can't make it worse."
- Chris Hadfield
« Sors le martinet et flagelle toi indigne contrôleuse de gestion. »
- my boss

[davjohns 1]

There was once an episode of the Simpsons where a character being examined by a doctor that explained to the guy that he had so many viruses, bacteria and such, that they kept each other in balance.

We have cures for things we did not have. We have diseases we did not have. We have more communication. We have more junk communication and miscommunication. We have easier travel. We have easier travel for disease, crime, and corruption. We have more ideas. We have more bad ideas. We have more stuff. We have more waste. We have more free time. We waste more time. We have more food. We have more weight problems.

Maybe there is a cosmic balance to things. Maybe man can not stand to be too successful and is self-limiting. Maybe we are on the verge of something big when one side of the equation gains an advantage over the other. Will it be a boom in prosperity or devastation?

Life. If done properly, it's one hell of a ride.

I know it just wouldnt be right to kill all the stupid people that we meet..

But do you think it would be appropriate to just remove all of the warning labels and let nature take its course.

[ryoder 1,590]

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Or if at 85 running a marathon were still possible...

Like this?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fauja_Singh

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[BETO74 0]

How is the Harlem shake for innovation??? :)
we could not live without it future generations will thank us forever! sarcam implied

http://web.mac.com/ac057a/iWeb/AC057A/H0M3.html