Jump numbers and canopy accident risk

[DocPop 1]

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But if you have a jumper with 4000 jumps who has hurt himself 4 times over the course of his career, and a newer jumper with 500 jumps who has only hurt himself once - the guy with 4000 jumps is still the safer jumper overall. His injury per jump rate is a lot lower.

And his number of close calls is 4 times higher, so higher jump numbers in this example equate to higher risk of canopy accidents.

"The ground does not care who you are. It will always be tougher than the human behind the controls."

~ CanuckInUSA

[craigbey 0]

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But if you have a jumper with 4000 jumps who has hurt himself 4 times over the course of his career, and a newer jumper with 500 jumps who has only hurt himself once - the guy with 4000 jumps is still the safer jumper overall. His injury per jump rate is a lot lower.

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And his number of close calls is 4 times higher, so higher jump numbers in this example equate to higher risk of canopy accidents.

FAIL

The guy with 4000 jumps and 4 injuries does NOT have a higher risk for another accident.

[craigbey 0]

I see your profile has changed and you now have 20 years of experience. Does that mean that you've only been able to get 10 jumps / year?

Not very current, but your natural talent will cover it.

[DocPop 1]

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FAIL

The guy with 4000 jumps and 4 injuries does NOT have a higher risk for another accident.

Dude - you can't just add in another word, change the context and then say "Fail".

The guy with the higher jump numbers has had 4 incidents. He is therefore 4 times more likely to have appeared in the incident reports.

Listen, I know everyone here thinks I am a douchebag and that's cool, but there is so much thread drift because of people trying to score points that a lot of threads become pointless.

"The ground does not care who you are. It will always be tougher than the human behind the controls."

~ CanuckInUSA

[DocPop 1]

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I see your profile has changed and you now have 20 years of experience. Does that mean that you've only been able to get 10 jumps / year?

Not very current, but your natural talent will cover it.

I made my first jump in 1990 (90 jumps so far this year). How would you like me to calculate it?

Did you also notice the canopy change?

Next contestant, please...

"The ground does not care who you are. It will always be tougher than the human behind the controls."

~ CanuckInUSA

[ufk22 33]

Unfortunately, everyone I've known who died under a good canopy had very high jump numbers, very current.

This is the paradox of skydiving. We do something very dangerous, expose ourselves to a totally unnecesary risk, and then spend our time trying to make it safer.

[erdnarob 1]

Here are some statistics which have been released in 2007 by the FAI. They concern the year 2005 for Skydiving across the world.

*36 countries supplied the information
*More than 6 millions jumps have been made by a bit more than 800 000 jumpers
*64 fatalities happened or one fatality per 96 000 jumps or one per 12600 jumpers
*tandem fatalities 3% *solo fatalities 97%

*41% fatalities out of the 64 happened with the main parachute well open
*16% fatalities out of 64 might have been avoided by AAD use
*84% fatalities out of 64 seem to be caused by human error
3 fatalities out of 64 or almost 5% involved first jump students

In Canada the month of April and July seem to be the most prone for fatalities (for the past 14 years) which corresponds to the beginning of the skydiving season and the warm and humid weather of July.

For comparison purpose:
Swimming: one fatality for 38 600 swimmers
Scuba: one fatality for 31 300 divers or one every 95 000 dives
Boating: one fatality for 15 400 persons
Bicycling: one fatality for 47 200 persons
Marathon running: one fatality for 4065 runners

What is very disturbing is the 41% of fatalities under a well open main canopy. Swooping...

I hope that could help with this thread

Learn from others mistakes, you will never live long enough to make them all.

[airtwardo 7]

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But if you have a jumper with 4000 jumps who has hurt himself 4 times over the course of his career, and a newer jumper with 500 jumps who has only hurt himself once - the guy with 4000 jumps is still the safer jumper overall. His injury per jump rate is a lot lower.

And his number of close calls is 4 times higher, so higher jump numbers in this example equate to higher risk of canopy accidents.

Wait, WHAT?!

~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~

[davelepka 4]

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Why is this suddenly about me?

Becasue we're not idiots. It's no secret you're the outspoken jumper on a canopy well beyond your experience or skill (I've never seen you jump, there is no way you're qualified to jump what you're jumping and we all know it). It's no secret that you think everyone esle has it wrong, and that you have devised a world in which you are the exception to the rule.

Then you create a poll where you put the 'issue' between you and many highly experienced jumpers on this site as the 'line in the sand' to see who's on what side. Somehow, you have the nerve to ask, 'Why is this suddenly about me?"

Why did you put in poll form this time, this issue of yours? So you could collect anonymous 'numbers' in your favor, with no regard for the experience of those who side with you?

You already know the possible answers to your quesiton, and you know that the jumpers who side with you will be of lesser experience, and those against you will be of greater experience.

What you also know, but choose to ignore, is that out of those two groups, only the more experienced jumpers have been in both pairs of shoes. I have been a newbie, and remember having 50 jumps. I have also been an intermediate jumper, and remember having 500 jumps. I have been an advanced jumper, and remember having 1000 jumps. I am currently an expert jumper, and can easily recall my last jump. I can tell you without a doubt, that time in the sky is the number one metric for overall skill or ability.

Does natural talent enhance those jump numbers? Yes.

Does dedicated training and education enahnce those jump numbers? Yes.

Do either of them replace pounding out the jumps? Nope. No way. Never.

Your choices and reasoning are not correct. Among the things you may come to regret in the years to come, don't add spreading your message to other jumpers to the list.

[Southern_Man 0]

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For comparison purpose:
Swimming: one fatality for 38 600 swimmers
Scuba: one fatality for 31 300 divers or one every 95 000 dives
Boating: one fatality for 15 400 persons
Bicycling: one fatality for 47 200 persons
Marathon running: one fatality for 4065 runners

Where did you get these numbers for comparison? I'd like to see it because the number for marathon running is very, very highly suspect.

"What if there were no hypothetical questions?"

[wildcard451 0]

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What is very disturbing is the 41% of fatalities under a well open main canopy. Swooping...

Not one and the same...

[JSE 1]

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What is very disturbing is the 41% of fatalities under a well open main canopy. Swooping...

That number is very disturbing, and from what I've read lately that number may be higher for more recent years. But it seems you are suggesting that this is due to swooping. I'm not sure this is the case. There have been a lot of canopy collisions lately that have nothing to do with swooping. Personally, I'm much more concerned with people who don't fly a predictable pattern or who are uncurrent then I am with the experienced swoopers at my dz.

[ianmdrennan 2]

I believe it's important to state:

Jump numbers are needed to have good experience, but jump numbers don't mean that you have good experience.

In other words, just cause you got the #'s doesn't mean you have the experience. But if you don't have the #'s you definitely don't have the experience.

Ian

Performance Designs Factory Team

[ianmdrennan 2]

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Unfortunately, everyone I've known who died under a good canopy had very high jump numbers, very current

Sadly this happens. Generally there are a few things that this can be attributed to:

1) No matter who you are, it only takes 1 mistake.
2) As your experience grows so does your confidence. This gives some jumpers a false sense of security, complacency sets in, and a mistakes/poor judgement happens.
3) As your experience grows, so does your desire to (as safely as you can) push boundaries. The sport is not without risk and we all calculate our risk each and every jump we do. Sometimes, in pushing that boundary you push too far, and there's no going back.

Of course, there are a myriad of other things that could happen, but that's a first pass at the statement.

Ian

Performance Designs Factory Team

[beowulf 1]

I would like to add that there is never a point in skydiving where you have enough experience or skill that it is entirely safe. Experience and skill can save your ass when you find yourself in a bad situation, but those are only gained through jumping and sometimes they are not enough.

Also wanted to add that if you jump enough sooner or later you will find yourself in a bad situation having to make a tough decision very quickly with no time to think.

[Ron 10]

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In other words, just cause you got the #'s doesn't mean you have the experience. But if you don't have the #'s you definitely don't have the experience.

My point made better than I could make it.

"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334

[grimmie 186]

I know a lot of skydivers around the world, like many of you. I have spent countless hours patching up injured jumpers at far to many places. I have witnessed a number of collisions and seen countless landings go bad. Like many of you here, I could go on for days about the stupid things I have seen skydivers do to themselves. Hear me out for a minute or two...

I think canopy collisions happen for a few different reasons.
a. No landing pattern is established and no training or enforcement of the pattern. We do a terrible job at some places ensuring that people know where to fly and how to set up a proper pattern to land.
b. We have so many different speed canopies in the air at one time now it is difficult to teach experienced and newbies how to fly safely in that situation.
c. Too many jumpers are way too scared to land crosswind or downwind.
d. Too many jumpers think the skydive is over when the parachute inflates.
e. Too many jumpers think the rules are for the other guys, not them.
f. WAY TOO MANY JUMPERS FLY A CANOPY WITH THEIR HEADS UP THEIR ASS.
g. Some folks that are madly skilled in the tunnel are overwhelmed under a parachute.

I have seen a Golden Knight and a French 8 way member collide. I have seen a VERY high time airline pilot and a very highly experienced jumper collide. We all know about Danny and Bob, and Roger Nelson. I watched two CRW team mates collide in the landing area.
It's not just the new kids on the block getting wrecked guys, it's everyone.

We, as an industry and a sport, have to do a WAY better job of training, continuing to educate and enforcing safe canopy patterns and flying.

And think about "Experience" for a minute. I know some folks that have a few thousand jumps. All of them are done at Perris or Elsinore. Same elevation, lots of landing area at each DZ. Take that same jumper and put them on a reserve ride or bad spot at the "Ranch", or Lost Prairie. Uh Oh! Some people have 2,000 jumps and some people have the same jump 2,000 times.

We have to watch out for each other. Old guys, mentor the new guys. New guys, listen to the old guys. DZO's and managers, get a plan and stick with it. Sit jumpers down that are too cool to follow the rules. Really explain a new to your DZ person the patterns. Don't just show them a blow up of the airport and say "land here".

It's more than just experienced or newbies colliding and statistics. It's all of us out there. Use your head. If you aren't sure about patterns, ask.

Can one of you call 911 for me, I just fell off of my soap box.

[billvon 2,998]

>And his number of close calls is 4 times higher

Right. And the risk of death for the lower time jumper is 100%.

But both those numbers are pretty meaningless. About the only meaningful number you can discuss is the risk _per_jump._ That's all you can really control.

[airtwardo 7]

...same jump 2000 times.

I'm stealing THAT line!

~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~

[craigbey 0]

Dude, you said...

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higher jump numbers in this example equate to higher risk of canopy accidents

And now YOU are mis-quoting yourself...

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He is therefore 4 times more likely to have appeared in the incident reports.

2 different things and incorrect use of the word 'risk'. You don't seem to understand what it means.


So, why did you give up on the Katana? Could it have something to do with 'risk'?

[Hvance 0]

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==Some people have 2,000 jumps and some people have the same jump 2,000 times. =

Great post in general. Liked this line in particular. Applies to everyone.

I wish Google Maps had an "Avoid Ghetto" routing option.

[erdnarob 1]

Swooping seems to be the first reason for fatalities with an well open canopy. I agree that canopy collision is also a contributing factor. As far as I am concerned, several jumpers I have known have died at landing while just one was involved in a canopy collision. Chances of canopy collision are less likely to happen due the space generally large enough. OTOH many jumpers using high performance canopy are swooping. What we can hope is that more and more people wanting to swoop would or should take a canopy piloting course which is becoming more and more popular.
About the traffic circuit now, it is the role of the DZO to enforce the regulations at his DZ. When it's done and monitored circuits are done properly.

Learn from others mistakes, you will never live long enough to make them all.

[wmw999 2,452]

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Swooping seems to be the first reason for fatalities with an well open canopy.

A pretty significant number of the open canopy fatalities that aren't canopy collisions also seem to be obstacle or downwind-landing avoidance -- i.e. the person makes a late hard turn to get to where they think they need to land (not on an obstacle, or facing into the wind). That's very much not the same as swooping.

It's very hard to tell the difference in the aftermath; a low turn is a low turn, whether it was to swoop or to avoid someone. And trying to discern the difference between skilled and unskilled swoopers is even harder.

But before we just blame swooping, it's probably important to understand that.

The thing is -- a swoop machine of a canopy will punish you just as hard for a late-breaking decision to avoid hitting the kid who ran out onto the field, as it will for a misjudged swoop.

Wendy P.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[erdnarob 1]

Always ready to give info when available, here is an extract (in attachment) of a document where you can identify my sources. The whole document was available at the PIA symposium at Reno Nevada in 2007. A seminar was dedicated to this facet of skydiving.
Are you by any chance a marathon runner ?

Learn from others mistakes, you will never live long enough to make them all.

[erdnarob 1]

Thanks for participating to the thread. I have no figures about fatalities when landing with obstacles. What you say matches what I have always said : being able to choose the landing area is for me very important since any hazards can wait for us when you land elsewhere. Personally I have landed about anywhere (not on purpose) : junk yard, near electric lines, besides a highway, near a river or a lake, in a very tight glade, in town...name it. I have been extremely lucky. For that reason I recommend everybody to get familiar with low flat turns just in case of having to use them. OTOH as soon as possible, a jumper should have a canopy with a loading factor fast enough to be able to penetrate into the wind as much as possible. That is an important factor allowing the jumper to choose better his landing area.
But we have to admit that swooping or low turn or hook turn is still the main suspect.

Learn from others mistakes, you will never live long enough to make them all.