Three Rig Riddle

[Birdman_Mike 0]

I have a riddle. Suppose three identical parachute rigs are packed. Two rigs have been packed intentionally with double malfunctions. The other one is packed normally. For purposes of this question, assume that the normal rig is guaranteed 100% to not have a malfunction. Let's label these rigs A, B, and C. Send me a private message with your rig choice A, B, or C, and I will give you the second part of the riddle when I have enough responses

Purple Mike

[Birdman_Mike 0]

I have 21 responses so far. I am still waiting to hear from some more people.

Purple Mike

[NealFitz 0]

sounds a bit like the gameshow host riddle

Dudeist Skydiver #170
You do not need a parachute to skydive, you only need one to skydive again

[Birdman_Mike 0]

Please refrain from responding to this post before I finish the riddle, since I am trying to keep the answers as unbiased as possible. You are welcome to send me a private message with your answer.

Thank you,

Purple Mike

[kj126 0]

Oh Shit, now that he responded I am biased to choose A.

I Am Sofa King We Todd Did!!

[captain1976 0]

C

You live more in the few minutes of skydiving than many people live in their lifetime

[Herky 0]

If you choose "a" "b" or "c",,,let's say "b". You now have B, he then tells you "a" is a double mal, do you want to stick with your choice, or switch to rig"c". Choose "c"!

Keeping with original rig gives you 33% chance of having safe rig, switching gives you a 66% chance.

I have a feeling that's where this riddle is going...riddle made the rounds on the net two years ago.

[kj126 0]

That riddle was also in a movie, now cant remember which

I Am Sofa King We Todd Did!!

[hcsvader 1]

The movie "21"

Have you seen my pants?
it"s a rough life, Livin' the dream
>:)

[muff528 3]

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If you choose "a" "b" or "c",,,let's say "b". You now have B, he then tells you "a" is a double mal, do you want to stick with your choice, or switch to rig"c". Choose "c"!

Keeping with original rig gives you 33% chance of having safe rig, switching gives you a 66% chance...........reply]

At this point I ain't jumping none of 'em!

[blkhwk91b 0]

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Keeping with original rig gives you 33% chance of having safe rig, switching gives you a 66% chance.

Ok, not a mathematician so help me out here. If a bad rig is taken out of the mix and all that is left are two rigs (one bad one good), how in the hell are you getting a 66% chance by switching when there are only two rigs left?

One choice out of 3 gives you a 33% chance of picking the right one.

If only two are left you have a 50/50 of having the right one on your back. The third rig is no longer a part of the equation.

Initially A,B, and C are unknowns. Now that there is a known factor, the odds change.


( I have a feeling there is some egghead on here that sprinkles calculus formulas on his cheerios in the morning that is going to make me wish I never posted this)

"Better to have a short life that is full of what you like doing, than a long life spent in a miserable way." - Alan Watts

[Birdman_Mike 0]

I was hoping to have more responses before asking the next question. Unfortunately, some people couldn't resist posting their speculations prior to the conclusion of the riddle.

I will now show you that one of the other rigs has a double malfunction. You are now left with your original choice and one other rig. Would you like to switch your original choice for the other rig? There will not be another opportunity to switch.

Again, please send me a private message with your answer.

Purple Mike

[LaRusic 0]

Lol well we have to take into account variable change, which was brought up in the movie.

So first we have a 33% chance of getting the good one and 66% chance of getting a double mal.

We pick "A"

Now its told to us that "B" (or whichever has a mal) so that eleminates one.

Now most would think we now have a 50/50 chance of getting the right rig, but take into account variable change.....

So rig "A" still only has a 33% of being right because we picked that out of the orignial 3, "B" and "C" collectivally have a 66% chance of having the good opening. Since B has been eliminated, "C" now has the 66% chance of being good due to variable change.

The Altitude above you, the runway behind you, and the fuel not in the plane are totally worthless
Dudeist Skydiver # 10

[ghost47 18]

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One choice out of 3 gives you a 33% chance of picking the right one.
If only two are left you have a 50/50 of having the right one on your back. The third rig is no longer a part of the equation.
Initially A,B, and C are unknowns. Now that there is a known factor, the odds change.

Think about it like this:

Out of the three, one of the rigs is good, two are bad. What are the odds that you picked the good one the first time?

As you've noted, 1 out of 3.

Okay. No matter what you've picked, I can always point to a bad rig -- if you picked right the first time, both remaining rigs are bad, and if you picked wrong the first time, there's still one remaining rig that's bad.

With me so far?

So you pick. Two possibilities -- you picked right the first time, you picked wrong the first time.

If you picked right the first time, then when I point to a bad rig, and ask if you want to switch to the third rig, switching would be the wrong choice, because the third rig is also bad.

If you picked wrong the first time, then when I point to a bad rig, and ask if you want to switch to the third rig, switching would be the right choice, because the third rig is the good rig.

So it boils down to: if you picked right the first time, switching is bad. If you picked wrong the first time, switching is good.

What are the chances that you picked right the first time? 1 out of 3. What are the chances that you picked wrong the first time? 2 out of 3. So 2 out of 3 times, switching is better.


If that's still messing with your head, try this instead:

There are 100 rigs. 99 are packed with double mals. One is guaranteed to open. You pick one. I honestly point out 98 of the remaining 99 that are bad and ask if you want to switch to the one remaining. Do you switch?

[blkhwk91b 0]

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So rig "A" still only has a 33% of being right because we picked that out of the orignial 3, "B" and "C" collectivally have a 66% chance of having the good opening. Since B has been eliminated, "C" now has the 66% chance of being good due to variable change.

Horse Shit on the variable change Let me tell you how my brain does math.

Once "B" is eliminated you divy up its 33% between the remaining two rigs.

Regardless that you already picked "A", you still have a choice between one of two rigs. To me it doesn't matter that you already "picked" it.

Variable change my ass........I'll punch that Einstein prick right in the kidney if I ever see him.

"Better to have a short life that is full of what you like doing, than a long life spent in a miserable way." - Alan Watts

[Chizazz 0]

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Quote

So rig "A" still only has a 33% of being right because we picked that out of the orignial 3, "B" and "C" collectivally have a 66% chance of having the good opening. Since B has been eliminated, "C" now has the 66% chance of being good due to variable change.

Horse Shit on the variable change Let me tell you how my brain does math.

Once "B" is eliminated you divy up its 33% between the remaining two rigs.

Regardless that you already picked "A", you still have a choice between one of two rigs. To me it doesn't matter that you already "picked" it.

Variable change my ass........I'll punch that Einstein prick right in the kidney if I ever see him.

Heheh.

[LaRusic 0]

haha

The Altitude above you, the runway behind you, and the fuel not in the plane are totally worthless
Dudeist Skydiver # 10

[Birdman_Mike 0]

It seems that it is impossible to have an unbiased sample of responses here. I am not sure why several people decided to post to this thread after I requested silence. Too bad that some people had to try to show how smart they are and ruin a chance to get a nice unbiased sample. I will not continue with hecklers in the audience. I am finished with this thread.

Thank you to everyone that responded privately.

Purple Mike

[FanOfFalling 0]

So I picked a rig, I jumped it, it doesn't matter which rig I picked after I have exited the aircraft. If I picked the double mal I went in like that, otherwise I didn't. I win?

[ghost47 18]

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It seems that it is impossible to have an unbiased sample of responses here. I am not sure why several people decided to post to this thread after I requested silence. Too bad that some people had to try to show how smart they are and ruin a chance to get a nice unbiased sample. I will not continue with hecklers in the audience. I am finished with this thread.

Since you replied to my post . . .

Someone had already given the answer. Someone else didn't understand the answer. So I tried to clarify. Don't see how that's such a bad thing.

Dunno what you wanted an "unbiased" sample for, and I'm sorry that you were unable to get one, but this problem has been around since 1975, and even has its own wikipedia page.

[MikeJD 0]

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I am not sure why several people decided to post to this thread after I requested silence.

Welcome to The Bonfire.

[PrairieDoug 0]

+1 on the logic (but prefer to shake Einstein's hand).

Doug

[Butters 0]

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What are the chances that you picked right the first time? 1 out of 3. What are the chances that you picked wrong the first time? 2 out of 3. So 2 out of 3 times, switching is better.

According to you, if I chose A and was told B was a malfunction, then chose A again and was told C was a malfunction, then A still only has a 1 out of 3 chance of not being a malfunction ...

"That looks dangerous." Leopold Stotch

[Harmless 0]

Just because you don't understand it doesn't make it wrong... It's called the Monty Hall problem. Google it.

"Damn you Gravity, you win again"

[timmyfitz 0]

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It seems that it is impossible to have an unbiased sample of responses here. I am not sure why several people decided to post to this thread after I requested silence. Too bad that some people had to try to show how smart they are and ruin a chance to get a nice unbiased sample. I will not continue with hecklers in the audience. I am finished with this thread.

Thank you to everyone that responded privately.

Purple Mike

Waaaaaaaaaaaa