Heads up to Socal people - rain

[billvon 2,998]

Heads up to Socal people, especially people living near mountains:

Early predictions are for a LOT of rain next week. 5 to 8 inches near the coast, 20 inches on west-facing slopes, 30 inches in some areas. 2 to 4 inches in the desert. That means mudslides and unstable slopes, especially in areas which have burned recently. Keep your eyes and ears open as the forecast gets more accurate.

[skyrider 0]

We need it.....(not the mudslides)

[LyraM45 0]

We just got a heads up on this at my work. Funny thing is I'm about to move to San Fran area to forecast with the NWS at the end of the month-- looks like I'll miss out on the fun!

Here is an email I got this morning:

This is a message from the Dean, College of Natural Science and Mathematics
at Cal State Fullerton.


Subject: Rainfall coming

In some parts of Southern California, a whole seasons worth of rain could
fall over the course of 5-10 days.

This is what the emergency response community is saying (by way of our
county emergency response group):
Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific,
and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The
strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water,
but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that
the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us.
Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from
the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely
powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide
tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances
right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source.
The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these
storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and
strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations
beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday.
This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican
border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be
all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation
event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to
occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra
after its all said and done. But theres a big and rather threatening
caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm events are going to be
hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as
powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the
following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess
of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas.
Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20
inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at
lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.

This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are
virtually unanimous in reloading the powerful jet stream and forming an
additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next
Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential
for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now
shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire
state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at
best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and
because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, its worth
mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow
(even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a
moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This
situation will have to monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection
does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be
sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry
antecedent conditions).

In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very
steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure
centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though
its not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is
certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point,
and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range
(since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the
mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as
the event(s) draw closer.

In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across
California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential
exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this
interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event
during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole seasons
worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be
a rather memorable event. Stay tuned

Apologies for the spelling (and grammar).... I got a B.S, not a B.A. :)

[quade 4]

bill, I thought you said just the other day that LA disasters are played out? (I'm paraphrasing of course. )

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[BikerBabe 0]

my hubby just sent me this info too...We do live in Ramona, in the mountains, near the burned areas of the Witch Fire in '07. While I suspect that was long enough ago to stave off a lot of the problems we might see in Ventura, etc, I suspect CA 78 (one of the two possible routes from Ramona down into San Diego) might see some mudslides/road closures if it does rain this much.

Hopefully i won't be homebound!

Never meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup!

[airtwardo 7]

Take the scooter down wildcat canyon....


did ya know there use to be a dz on the res?

~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~

[skyrider 0]

Quote

my hubby just sent me this info too...We do live in Ramona, in the mountains, near the burned areas of the Witch Fire in '07. While I suspect that was long enough ago to stave off a lot of the problems we might see in Ventura, etc, I suspect CA 78 (one of the two possible routes from Ramona down into San Diego) might see some mudslides/road closures if it does rain this much.

Hopefully i won't be homebound!

I'll be surprised if we see that much this far south....We have had so little rain, it may as well eb fire aftermath...there is no root growth, many plants are laying dormant!

We build in the mountians on a regular basis,(mountian bike trails) and the roots are the worse I have ever seen, great if your building trials like us, but bad news if we get a big rain!

[GARYC24 3]

Ventura county here. Missed the 17 ft. waves this week! I hope it does rain ALOT! I got to bring some fishing gear inside, thanks for reminding me! haha

[NickDG 23]

Ramona! - We had a drop zone there for a few years in the early 80s.

We dodged the bullet, as far as mudslides, during the last set of storms, so we'll see about his time. We are located right below the burn areas of the Station Fire in La Crescenta.

NickD
Here's the latest from the NWS.

LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
435 AM PST FRI JAN 15 2010

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK... IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE THREE OR FOUR SEPARATE STORM SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY AND FRIDAY...

FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...AND 8 TO 16 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 20 INCHES WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAVORED SOUTH FACING COASTAL SLOPES...

THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TO THE RECENT BURN AREAS. AS SOILS BECOME MORE SATURATED THROUGH THE WEEK...

[BikerBabe 0]

Quote

Take the scooter down wildcat canyon....


did ya know there use to be a dz on the res?

haha, yeah, i knew there used to be a DZ out here. sure would save me some driving!

And trust me, I have ridden down wildcat canyon many times. It's nice because 78 up to Julian is so crowded now you can't get much above 20 mph on the turns anymore. Plus we stop in and eat at Barona, which has some great food!

Never meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup!

[lawrocket 3]

Quote

Ventura county here. Missed the 17 ft. waves this week! I hope it does rain ALOT! I got to bring some fishing gear inside, thanks for reminding me! haha

I was in Santa Bararbara in 1995 when La Conchita slid into the 101. And the Gaviota tunnel was blocked. And the 154 washed out. And the airport was flooded. And we were basically separated from civilization for 3 days.

I've been monitoring this from Fresno. They expect us to get about 2-4 inches of rain by Friday (Jan. 2 2007 sucked - we got 3 inches of rain one morning that flooded our house). But the mountains have snow levels "expected to be measured in yards...Not feet." This was what the NWS said.

This is gonna be some interesting stuff. I'm hoping the pineapple express doesn't hit afterward or it could wipe out the drought gains.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[stitch 0]

Surfs Up !! Inland style.

"No cookies for you"- GFD
"I don't think I like the sound of that" ~ MB65
Don't be a "Racer Hater"

[warpedskydiver 0]

I was in Monterey in the winter of 1983, people were trapped all over central CA.

We were tasked with retrieving quite a few of them.

Boy was there mudslides.

The cool thing is I got to see some of the largest waves in my life.

Those storms had the ocean really going.

[ltdiver 3]

Wonder if they can add to the arson charges here in Oak Glen if the mud slides destroy homes, etc. The arsonist is in custody, waiting for his day in court.

ltdiver

Don't tell me the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon

[nanook 1]

Not meaning to go off topic here, but how is the Ramona living up there? Is the local wines pretty good? Ever since the BATF labeled the area as a wine growing appelation, I have fancied buying up some land and growing some vines, spending my retirement years growing and pruning some good ol' vitis vinifera.

I wish you well with the up and coming deluge. Don't hesitate to ask for assistance if needed. I'm gonna keep an eye on the news.

_____________________________

"The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you can never know if they are genuine" - Abraham Lincoln

[ltdiver 3]

Actually Oak Glen is apple territory, not grape.

If you're looking at wineries you have to go a bit south and a lower elevation. Say, Temecula. Now -there's- a beautiful place to invest in.

ltdiver

Don't tell me the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon

[nanook 1]

That's a beautiful place up there.
Thanks.

_____________________________

"The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you can never know if they are genuine" - Abraham Lincoln

[BikerBabe 0]

actually, we have a couple small wineries up here. I am ashamed to say I haven't tasted any of it, though it's on my list of things to do. Apples are more up Julian way, but There are definitely orchards out near SD Country Estates, too.

It's an affordable, small town lifestyle near enough to San Diego...pretty much anything down in town is 30-45 minutes away. The only downside is traffic in and out during rush hour, as there are only two roads, both 2-lane twisties.

Never meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup!

[warpedskydiver 0]

San Luis Obispo seems like it would be good for vineyards.

Not too hot, not too cold.

[skyrider 0]

Seems the rain once again desided to Skip the Dago area.....Nice and sunny out, low 70's!

[airtwardo 7]

Quote

Ramona! - We had a drop zone there for a few years in the early 80s.


NickD

Then we moved it to Barona...remember?


You said something about no feds on a Reservation.



You prolly DON'T remember...'cause there were NO FEDS!

~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~

[billvon 2,998]

>If you're looking at wineries you have to go a bit south and a lower
>elevation. Say, Temecula.

Ramona is south of Temecula. So is Escondido, which has become another wine destination; Fallbrook Wineries and Orfila are two great ones.

[Gawain 0]

Don't know about SoCal but it's already raining up here in NorCal. It's going to be a wet few days.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[ltdiver 3]

Quote

Don't know about SoCal but it's already raining up here in NorCal. It's going to be a wet few days.

Battened down here already and waiting for the punch. Wonder which weather guru will be the most accurate. I've read everything from dry to 8 inches, with snow expected as low as 3,000' perhaps.

ltdiver

Don't tell me the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon

[nanook 1]

Quote

Quote

Don't know about SoCal but it's already raining up here in NorCal. It's going to be a wet few days.

Battened down here already and waiting for the punch. Wonder which weather guru will be the most accurate. I've read everything from dry to 8 inches, with snow expected as low as 3,000' perhaps.

ltdiver

There's going be a mess on the I-8 and the 5. this is more than someone just spitting out the window.

_____________________________

"The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you can never know if they are genuine" - Abraham Lincoln