YOUR probability of Death

[bertusgeert 1]

One of my profs is trying to prove something to me. He sent me this:

28 died out of 110,000 jumps in 1988 yielding a rate of 25/100,000 dead (about the same as driving in a car). http://www.afn.org/skydive/sta/stats.html

Using my spreadsheet this implies that in 1,000 jumps the probability of death is 22.12% and in 10,000 jumps the probability of death is 91.79%. Of course this has a couple of assumptions built in.

Here is the spreadsheet.

That MUST be IMPOSSIBLE. EVEN FOR 1988.

Does anyone have more recent data for multiple years deaths/jumps?

And where did the BASE fatality list go?

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As jy dom is moet jy bloei!

[bigway 4]

That info may have been useful 20 years ago.

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[Morrison79 0]

I am drunk so my math may be off but here goes nothing.

if for every 100,000 jumps 25 people die than your chance of dieing is 0.00025% per jump

I lost my train of thought but once I sober up I might remember. i'll post later

[CSpenceFLY 1]

I would say that the 110000 number is small for 1988

[jtval 0]

First off, your (or my) probability of death is 100%.


when it comes to skydiving he is assuming that each person jumps once.


its like a deck of cards.

if you cut the deck in hopes of finding ,let's say , the ace of spades your probability of finding it is one in 52.

two outcomes.
1- you find the card.
2- you dont

if you DO NOT replace the inccorect card your next probability is 1 of 51. etc....


that seems to be the example your prof is using....in a VERY BASIC equation.

I've done 1000jumps and I haven't died once, never mind 22.12% of the time. (which is 221.2 times)

There are plenty of jumpers who have broken the 10,000 jump mark. I don't think they are shitting thier pants because some mathlete thinks he has an average worked out.

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[mattmais 0]

That info may have been useful 20 years ago.
............................

now they havecanopies 1/4 the size !

[bigway 4]

With a cypres.

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[Squeak 17]

that maths is all wrong
you statistical chance of death does not go up the more times you jump.
it's like tossing a coin you have a 50% chance of a H or T, toss it again you still have a 50% chance of H or T, it does not matter how many times you toss it you will always still have a 50% chance of H or T

You are not now, nor will you ever be, good enough to not die in this sport (Sparky)
My Life ROCKS!
How's yours doing?

[bigway 4]

If anything would the chances of dying not decrease because of experience?
However maybe experience brings more risky moves etc so that may just cancel that out.

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[jtval 0]

Skydiving: a sport in which you can do everything right and still die.

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[bigway 4]

Cheers for that sparky

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[jtval 0]

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Cheers for that sparky

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[jtval 0]

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One of my profs is trying to prove something to me.

I am curious, What exactly is S/he trying to prove to you?(probably that sitting on the couch is safer?)

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[JohnMitchell 16]

I think you're off by one power of ten. IMHO.

[drudchen 0]

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28 died out of 110,000 jumps in 1988 yielding a rate of 25/100,000 dead (about the same as driving in a car). http://www.afn.org/skydive/sta/stats.html

Using my spreadsheet this implies that in 1,000 jumps the probability of death is 22.12% and in 10,000 jumps the probability of death is 91.79%. Of course this has a couple of assumptions built in.

Yeah, your math seems to be right, given the numbers you based your analysis on.

hmm.. it is a dangerous sport...

edit: (for those wondering about the math) here's the walkthrough:
the probability of tossing the coin and for it to come up NOT heads is 0.5. The expectation (probability) that you will not see heads if you toss 10 times in a row is 0.5^10 is 9.7%. The more you toss the coin the lower the probability becomes for ALL the tosses to come up tails, even though the individual tosses have probability of 0.5 with independent events. So, a 100-9.7 = 90.3 probability that you will see AT LEAST one tails on 10 coin tosses

Same with jumps: the probability of NOT having a fatality on 1 jump is 1-(25/100000) which is 0.99975. Raising that to the power of 1000, you get 0.7788. So the expectation of dying if you do 1000 jumps is 1-0.7788 = 22.12%

[matthias 0]

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One of my profs is trying to prove something to me.

I'm curious what that may be.


To my understanding, everyone's probability of death is is 100%.

0.02

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[popsjumper 2]

Hah!

Numbers, numbers, numbers.

I'm immortal.


j/k Ju-Ju God, j/k.

My reality and yours are quite different.
I think we're all Bozos on this bus.
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[squirrel 0]

skydiving is better that being, to use an old phrase, being "bored to death."

tell you professor to do something useful with his mathematical mind...like taking VEGAS! yeah baby!

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[The111 1]

No mattter WHAT numbers you use, they are wrong, because as skydivers we are not rolling the dice and then sitting back idly to watch our fate unroll. We are actively participating, and always making decisions. Those who make better decisions will die a lot less. Those who make poor decisions will die a lot more. It is the same on the highway. Every time it rains here in FL I see dozens of cars wash off the highway into the trees because they don't realize that wet roads are slippery. Yes, there are "oh shit" factors, uncontrollable circumstances, and you can do everything right and still die, in both cases. But still, probability does not apply to a situation like this.

That's like saying if 1/1000 people is a brain surgeon, you have a 1/1000 chance of becoming one. Wrong, you can become one only if you want to, and try to. There's no "probability" involved in your choices. Past statistics do not always imply future probability.

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[Butters 0]

Amen to that!

"That looks dangerous." Leopold Stotch

[Icon134 0]

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No mattter WHAT numbers you use, they are wrong, because as skydivers we are not rolling the dice and then sitting back idly to watch our fate unroll. We are actively participating, and always make good decisions.

Which is why I never really liked statistics...

Livin' on the Edge... sleeping with my rigger's wife...

[bertusgeert 1]

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That info may have been useful 20 years ago.

Yes. If anyone knows where I can find more current info, please let me know.

He's not trying to prove that I should sit on the couch, mostly that he's smarter than me! Mostly I think he's challenging me.

I didn't include the .xls like I wanted to 1st time off. Here it is, just drag down the cells to get to whatever jump number you want.

HUMAN ERROR: You can say your safe, or not. Point is, despite the fact that most deaths are caused by human error, YOU ALSO are very much subject to human error.

So if I can get deaths per jumps made, I can show him how much this statistic has changed in 20 years. He claims skydiving is less popular now than it was then based on an Outside article. - August 2007 issue of Outside Magazine (pg. 28) has a brief tidbit implying that skydiving is LESS popular now than around the late 80s early 90s: Free Fall: How a once badass sport lost its edge.

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As jy dom is moet jy bloei!

[The111 1]

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August 2007 issue of Outside Magazine (pg. 28) has a brief tidbit implying that skydiving is LESS popular now than around the late 80s early 90s: Free Fall: How a once badass sport lost its edge.

Oh noes, skydiving is unpopular! I guess I'll have to quit.

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[The111 1]

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HUMAN ERROR: You can say your safe, or not. Point is, despite the fact that most deaths are caused by human error, YOU ALSO are very much subject to human error.

As long as we're talking statistics, what probability do I have for human error, versus somebody else? The question is ridiculous. A human being is THE most complex thing on this planet. Applying statistics to something that requires human sentience implies that we are all identical. And while many people may strive for homogeneity in modern culture, the fact remains that we're all different.

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[PrairieDoug 0]

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that maths is all wrong
you statistical chance of death does not go up the more times you jump.
it's like tossing a coin you have a 50% chance of a H or T, toss it again you still have a 50% chance of H or T, it does not matter how many times you toss it you will always still have a 50% chance of H or T

You are correct that the probability of H on any single toss does not change, but it's also true that the probability of at least 1 H does increase with more tosses. From this simplistic standpoint, jumping more does increase your odds of an accident. In the real world, though, this is at least partly offset by the fact that jumping more improves skills and judgment.

Doug