Is the US experiencing a house price crash?

[Newbie 0]

It seems there is a definate downturn in the market, but are the major metropolitans on the east and west coasts being affected?

Anyone notice a downturn, and in particular in NYC, LA, SF and San Diego areas?

Thanks!

"Skydiving is a door"
Happythoughts

[normiss 851]

damn skippy!

ok Jen...look that one up too!

[Lindercles 0]

I don't know anything about it first hand, but I heard a news story this morning that said the housing market was down to it's lowest point since February of 2004.

[simplyputsi 0]

Tell that to Atlanta.

Houses cost more than ever here!!!

Skymama's #2 stalker -

[Buried 0]

chicago is the same. 7-8 mth demand and more houses on the market than buyers

Where is my fizzy-lifting drink?

[NWFlyer 2]

Quote

Tell that to Atlanta.

Houses cost more than ever here!!!

Oh puhleeze... it's still way cheaper than most cities.

Seattle's still pretty hot. At least I keep telling myself that as I wonder "should I sell NOW?"

"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." -P.J. O'Rourke

[Shawndiver 0]

Definitely a downturn in Marin County, CA. (Just north of SF) The median price for a family home here is down to almost $900,000. It was up to almost a million at the beginning of the year. Glad I bought a decade ago!

_________________

[guppie01 0]

Appears to be on the down swing in Ventura as well... Waterfront condo's a year ago started at half mil... now starting @ 400k.

g

"Let's do something romantic this Saturday... how bout we bust out the restraints?"
Raddest Ho this side of Jersey #1 - MISS YOU
OMG, is she okay?

[normiss 851]

it's even happening at the dz...buses going for $1000...selling for $500

[ACMESkydiver 0]

Yes they are. I was in mortgage for many years, and we keep an eye on the economy.

California housing sets the rates for the rest of the country (stupid, but true). If we want to see where rates are going, we watch California.

If you're interested, check out some forecasting sites. www.hsdent.com is a good one. We are looking at another full-on great depression in the next 10-15 years. Thanks, baby boomers!

~Jaye
Do not believe that possibly you can escape the reward of your action.

[billvon 3,070]

San Diego is dropping fast. Houses aren't selling, and people who were counting on being able to sell them to afford their mortgages are set to get screwed. They will default, the bank will reposess, THOSE houses will go on the market - and the slide will accelerate.

Glad I got a fixed rate mortgage four years ago!

[GTAVercetti 0]

Houses are selling MUCH slower in the DC area.

A few months back, a neighboring house went for around 900K (still ridiculously overpriced). The ones for sale now have been for sale for quite some time now.

I think we are going to see ALOT of developers go under. they built too much too fast.

But I am not an economist and am basing this ENTIRELY on what I see and my feelings.

Why yes, my license number is a palindrome. Thank you for noticing.

[mailin 0]

I just bought a house in what could be considered the boston metro area (lots of ppl commute to boston from where we'll live). The majority of homes were on the market for more than 120 days - but they still made money. The folks who are selling the home we're buying bought it 4 years ago. They haven't updated a thing - really, done nothing to it (its in great shape though).

They're making $100k on it. And the price was down $35k from their original asking price (which wasn't unreasonable).


Jen

Arianna Frances

[jeiber 0]

-- Existing home sales down 4.1% in July, Reuters reports; weaker than expected.

-- New home sales slump 4.2% to 1.07 million annual rate, Reuters reports; weaker than forecast.

Both from CNN breaking news. Seems like I've been getting similar email reports over the past couple months. Sure sounds like a trend to me...

Let's look at the economics here. Interest rates have been at record lows, so everybody who could buy or refi, did.

Interest rates are now higher. Why would somebody give up their existing house, just to move into something the same size, but pay more every month?

Homebuilders have been building like mad, trying to keep up with the demand, due to the low interest rates. So now we have all these homes (high supply) and high(er) interest rates (low demand).

My opinion - it's gonna get worse over the next 6 months, then level off.

Jeff

Shhh... you hear that sound? That's the sound of nobody caring!

[seejanefall 0]

Portland Oregon is still stupidly expensive for housing, but we also contend with a strict urban growth boundary. Crack houses are going for about $200k.

_____________
PMS #394

[StreetScooby 5]

Home prices are down about 10% in Westchester county (just north of NYC).

We are all engines of karma

[Jib 0]

In Palm BEach County, sales were down 44% from last July, but the middle price was about the same -- $390k+. There are definitely more houses for sale, but I don't think we've hit the wall yet where people have to get out to of their variable mortgages and spec properties -- just waiting longer.

--------------------------------------------------
the depth of his depravity sickens me.
-- Jerry Falwell, People v. Larry Flynt

[Phillbo 11]

When I bough 2 years ago in Scottsdale, houses were selling in hours.. now it's more like weeks - months. Values have backed off a bit but not enough to impact the massive increase in the last 4 years. Mine is still valued well over twice what i paid for it.

[Douva 0]

Quote

We are looking at another full-on great depression in the next 10-15 years. Thanks, baby boomers!

Ten to fifteen years I may be able to live with. Ten to fifteen months and I'll be living in a van down by the river. When you're young and starting out in the career world, it's scary to think about the economy taking a nose dive right when you're trying to get a foothold. It's especially scary to think about it bottoming out about the time you'll probably be trying to support a family. If we can just avoid a repeat of the '80s real estate crash, for two or three more years, I'll probably be able to dig in and ride it out. If it happens any sooner than that--me, van, river.

On the upside, I am hoping to buy a house in the next year or two, so if interest rates don't get much higher, I may be able to benefit from the buyers' market.

I don't have an M.D. or a law degree. I have bachelor's in kicking ass and taking names.

[Feeblemind 1]

This is what happens when folks bet on the "come line" and signed those interest only loans that are comind due to be refinanced. Problem is they are now beyond their financial means and the banks are going to own alot of homes soon. This will do nothing but cause the market to continue to slide.

Fire Safety Tip: Don't fry bacon while naked

[Michele 1]

Don't forget that for most areas, the housing "sale" season is already past. Most people who are going to buy have already done so this year, so as to be settled and ready for when school starts. The only other time selling is good is just towards the end of the year; people who are being relocated generally get relo'd at the end of the year (or the end of the fiscal year in June), and in the holidays the homes for sale are generally less in number than in the summer season (who wants to put their house on the market at Christmas?).

I think that, in most major markets, the home sale "slump" is nothing more than a little one. We here in the Los Angeles area have been appreciating about 20% per year (more in some cases, and more in some years than others), and this has been going on since the late 90's. What was selling in 98 for $200K is now selling for $700K, for an example.

I think the market is slowing, and will continue to do so as long as interest rates rise. However, it's not crashing; it's more like a slow leak or a little slump than anything else, imho, and combined with the end of summer sales season, it's going a bit flatter than before. As I've told clients who are "waiting" for housing prices to drop to 98-99 levels, it will take a 12+% interest rates, a really big earthquake, a firestorm, a terrorist attack and a tsunami before we see housing prices like we did in the late 90's.

Ciels-
Michele

And I think it's a good thing...

~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek
While our hearts lie bleeding?~

[Douva 0]

I work primarily in commercial real estate, and one of the things that's killing us right now is rising construction costs. Construction costs have increased at a rate of approximately 25% per year, for the last four years. That means it costs twice as much to build a shopping center now as it did in 2002.

For the last five-to-ten years, one of the things driving the market here in Texas has been California investors selling off California properties for huge profits and reinvesting the money in cheaper Texas properties. We're already starting to see a decline in those California investors, as rising construction costs and other economic factors make investing in Texas properties less profitable.

We're far from the crisis/tipping point, but the guys that have been in the industry longer than I've been alive don't seem optimistic about the handwriting on the wall.

I don't have an M.D. or a law degree. I have bachelor's in kicking ass and taking names.

[nanook 1]

Quote

Glad I got a fixed rate mortgage four years ago

My and my Fiancee have fixed mortgages on our condos too. We really found out how bad San Diego was doing when we were looking for new homes we could own as a married couple. We learned quickly to circle new-builds like vultures. One new-build place was offering a $100,000 incentive if we bought now. We said we would be back in a year when we were married and they told us to "hurry up, they are going fast." I think I'm safe if we wait.

_____________________________

"The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you can never know if they are genuine" - Abraham Lincoln

[ACMESkydiver 0]

Quote

Ten to fifteen months and I'll be living in a van down by the river.

That was one funny freakin' sketch!

~Jaye
Do not believe that possibly you can escape the reward of your action.

[Ron 10]

OK...Since you know way more than I do.

How about if I bought a few mths ago? Will prices drop so much that I will be under my house?

"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334