ChasingBlueSky 0 #1 November 4, 2005 Guess I just haven't been paying attention to this news story. So, from what I was told at work today: -a pandemic called the spanish flu happened years ago that was a version of this -it goes bird to bird, and bird to human, but not human to human -chance that it could mutuate and go human to human -the mutation on each jump could make it hard to come up with a way to stop it. -could be a pandemic if that happens. cats and dogs living together, mass hysteria SO....what I can tell is there isn't anything you can do other than wash your hands and stay away from sick/dead birds. Am I missing anything? Lucky me I have almost no ability to fight off colds! Looks like a few days off of work in my future _________________________________________ you can burn the land and boil the sea, but you can't take the sky from me.... I WILL fly again..... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yardhippie 0 #2 November 4, 2005 Quote Guess I just haven't been paying attention to this news story. So, from what I was told at work today: -a pandemic called the spanish flu happened years ago that was a version of this -it goes bird to bird, and bird to human, but not human to human -chance that it could mutuate and go human to human -the mutation on each jump could make it hard to come up with a way to stop it. -could be a pandemic if that happens. cats and dogs living together, mass hysteria SO....what I can tell is there isn't anything you can do other than wash your hands and stay away from sick/dead birds. Am I missing anything? Lucky me I have almost no ability to fight off colds! Looks like a few days off of work in my future its like SARS a few years ago. the media hype is making it a "potential pandemic" or WTF ever. When it turs out more people were killed by the flu than SARS. my .02. take your vitamins, exercise, and dont drink out of a bird bath...Goddam dirty hippies piss me off! ~GFD "What do I get for closing your rig?" ~ me "Anything you want." ~ female skydiver Mohoso Rodriguez #865 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jeff.Donohue 0 #3 November 4, 2005 Mostly right. Spanish flu (the 1918 pandemic) is genetically similar to H5N1 (the disease currently killing birds). It's easily transmitted bird to bird, particularly when they're caged up, but it has also spread to wild birds (which migrate). That disease has been found in birds from Romania to Korea. It doesn't usually infect humans (and it can't be transmitted human to human yet), but 61 people have died from getting it from birds (mostly in South East Asia). There is a chance that it could mutate, particularly if a person infected by a bird also had a human influenza virus. Once in humans, it might have a stable genotype (one strain) or it might have multiple genotypes (more than one strain). If it were to mutate into a form that transmits human to human, the fear is that it would be of the same scale as 1918. Tamiflu and other current flu vaccines would probably not work on a H5N1 variant in humans. A vaccine could probably be developed (if a strain can be isolated), but it will take at least 6 months from when that strain arises and is detected until when shots would be available. In the meantime, a lot of people could be sick. The real bummer about the 1918 flu is that it was actually more likely to kill you if you had a strong immune system than if you were a typical flu victim (elderly and children). It caused what they refer to as a "cytokine storm" in the body of people with strong immune systems. In short, nasty stuff. Similar thing could have happened with the Swine Flu back in the 1960s. It didn't, obviously. So, it could be a big deal, it could be absolutely nothing. Your chances of dying are still 100%, though, regardless of whether it does or doesn't. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ReBirth 0 #4 November 4, 2005 Quote Your chances of dying are still 100%, though, regardless of whether it does or doesn't. WHAT??!!?? My god, man, what are you saying? AHHHH AHHHHH PANIC!!!! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
freeflir29 0 #5 November 4, 2005 Quote Tamiflu and other current flu vaccines would probably not work on a H5N1 variant in humans. Wrong................Tamiflu is very effective in controlling the life cycle of this virus in the host. The only really bad side effect seen so far was a Vietnamese girl that was taking a low dose of Tamiflu BEFORE she ever contracted the virus. She was taking care of a sick family member. This induced an anti-viral resistant strain of the virus. So far it is STILL not infecting humans much. I wish I could share why I am so educated on this subject. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mx757 4 #6 November 4, 2005 first case of Bird flu has already hit the USA see the photo Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hobbes4star 0 #7 November 4, 2005 if fun were easy it wouldn't be worth having, right? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ReBirth 0 #8 November 5, 2005 Quote ish I could share why I am so educated on this subject. My god, man!!! Don't tell me you've switched teams from sheep to chickens? Wasn't there a south park episode about you...yeah, you drove the bookmobile, chicken fucker!!! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nerdgirl 0 #9 November 5, 2005 Quote Quote Tamiflu and other current flu vaccines would probably not work on a H5N1 variant in humans. Wrong................Tamiflu is very effective in controlling the life cycle of this virus in the host. The only really bad side effect seen so far was a Vietnamese girl that was taking a low dose of Tamiflu BEFORE she ever contracted the virus. She was taking care of a sick family member. This induced an anti-viral resistant strain of the virus. By some coincidence (i.e., an open meeting at NAS), I was speaking with the Sergey Netesov (Deputy Director of VECTOR [yeah, that one in Russia]) about avian influenza today. There have been multiple incidents in China in which individuals have been taking Tamiflu prophylactically, were exposed to H5N1 and developed Tamiflu-resistant influenza. He did not know whether they responded to Glaxo's Relenza(TM), as the Vietnamese girl reported in Nature. VR, marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orchid 0 #10 November 5, 2005 Quote ***Tamiflu is very effective in controlling the life cycle of this virus in the host. __________________________________________________ My uncle is a doctor and did a study on Bird Flu.....and found that "Tamiful is very effective when taken immediately after being contracted with the virus. Which mean the very first sign/symtom developed."Love is doing small things with great love." Lacrosse: Legally beating men with sticks since 1492 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
freeflir29 0 #11 November 5, 2005 Quote yeah, you drove the bookmobile, chicken fucker!!! It was all part of my plan to teach Officer Barbrady to read! That was my only intent......... Quote There have been multiple incidents in China in which individuals have been taking Tamiflu prophylactically Right............if it's taken Prophilactically it negates the intended effect of the drug and makes the problem worse. The medical community needs to get a handle on this! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AggieDave 6 #12 November 5, 2005 What you're missing is that this is basically a non-issue, its not a big deal, there's no real major threat, but some folks want to be prepared for a possible threat. That's understandable. However, the media loves a good worthless and fear based story, so they've gone nuts reporting on it. Even though less people have died from it in 5 years then have died in lightening strikes just this year. Hell, more folks have died from other normal flu's we have floating around then have died from the bird-flue over the past 5 years. The media's good at blowing BS up and not reporting what is truely important.--"When I die, may I be surrounded by scattered chrome and burning gasoline." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shropshire 0 #13 November 5, 2005 Yeap, what he said. and to add..... These scientists that can see into the future sooo well ought to do the lottery! (.)Y(.) Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nerdgirl 0 #14 November 5, 2005 There's an old joke/truism: ask two scientists the same question and you'll get three different answers. It might be worth considering that as the media might present somewhat less than technically precise portrayals of skydivers and skydiving, the same applies to most scientific research, especially that which is a moving target changing daily. Most scientists are fond (to put it mildly) of error bars and accustom to dealing with uncertainties (if nothing else limitations of instrumentation resolution), the media and policy-makers in DC are less comfortable. marg Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters. Tibetan Buddhist saying Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shropshire 0 #15 November 5, 2005 good response... I guess that I think like an engineer (deal with what is, not what could possible be if only.....). Thanks, (.)Y(.) Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,106 #16 November 5, 2005 Quote What you're missing is that this is basically a non-issue, its not a big deal, there's no real major threat, but some folks want to be prepared for a possible threat. That's understandable. However, the media loves a good worthless and fear based story, so they've gone nuts reporting on it. Even though less people have died from it in 5 years then have died in lightening strikes just this year. Hell, more folks have died from other normal flu's we have floating around then have died from the bird-flue over the past 5 years. The media's good at blowing BS up and not reporting what is truely important. Risk is the product of the probability of an event and the severity of its consequences. While the probability of a killer mutation in the immediate future may be small it is far from zero, since such things have happened many times in the past. The consequences are horrific. This makes it a high risk event and worthy of our attention, the government's attention, and media attention.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ReBirth 0 #17 November 5, 2005 Meh...I've got enough to worry about. i'm not going to ponder cross species mutational viruses coupled with the migratory habits of swallows (both african and european) and the coconuts they carry. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shropshire 0 #18 November 5, 2005 Maybe something like an asteroid hit, would you think? Or more likely, say than a recent killer such as a hurricane or eathquake... I guess, it's all about risk assesment and management (we know a fair bit about that in our chossen sport). We dont [tend] to hype up our risk, but the media pretty much always do and I suspect that they have again with this Bird Flu story. In my opinion its getting way too many column inches. Regards, (.)Y(.) Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ExAFO 0 #19 November 5, 2005 Quote In my opinion its getting way too many column inches. Agreed. It's in the news because "Bird Flu" sounds exotic and menacing, and will sell ad space on both electronic and print media. Also, we still have people dying from a myriad of other more virulent diseases. They just aren't interesting enough to put on the news.Illinois needs a CCW Law. NOW. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FlankSteak 0 #20 November 6, 2005 Quote Guess I just haven't been paying attention to this news story. So, from what I was told at work today: -a pandemic called the spanish flu happened years ago that was a version of this -it goes bird to bird, and bird to human, but not human to human -chance that it could mutuate and go human to human -the mutation on each jump could make it hard to come up with a way to stop it. -could be a pandemic if that happens. cats and dogs living together, mass hysteria SO....what I can tell is there isn't anything you can do other than wash your hands and stay away from sick/dead birds. Am I missing anything? Lucky me I have almost no ability to fight off colds! Looks like a few days off of work in my future No, I don't think you are. It took 100,000+ lives in the past. I say wash your hands, sit back, and hope for the best. Either that or have all our hunters sit on the eastern seaboard and pluck off anything that flies by. ______________________________________________ "...whatever stands against freedom must be set aside, be it ritual or superstition or limitation in any form." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AggieDave 6 #21 November 6, 2005 Quote Risk is the product of the probability of an event and the severity of its consequences. While the probability of a killer mutation in the immediate future may be small it is far from zero, since such things have happened many times in the past. The consequences are horrific. This makes it a high risk event and worthy of our attention, the government's attention, and media attention. Holy cow that's funny! Ok John, since you have to no matter what disagree with me, enjoy yourself with this one. There are many many many more important things to worry about besides the slight chance that someday somewhere this strand of flu will mutate and it *might* mutate into something that will kill off millions of people. For now the rest of the western world will continue to worry about their real lives.--"When I die, may I be surrounded by scattered chrome and burning gasoline." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,106 #22 November 6, 2005 Quote Quote Risk is the product of the probability of an event and the severity of its consequences. While the probability of a killer mutation in the immediate future may be small it is far from zero, since such things have happened many times in the past. The consequences are horrific. This makes it a high risk event and worthy of our attention, the government's attention, and media attention. Holy cow that's funny! Ok John, since you have to no matter what disagree with me, enjoy yourself with this one. There are many many many more important things to worry about besides the slight chance that someday somewhere this strand of flu will mutate and it *might* mutate into something that will kill off millions of people. For now the rest of the western world will continue to worry about their real lives. I repeat for those who didn't get it the first time: RISK is not PROBABILITY. It is a combination of probability AND severity of consequences. So even if an event has low probability, if the consequences are serious enough, it can still be high RISK. We know the 1918 flu was a bird flu, and it killed 40,000,000 people. That seems to me to be a fairly serious consequence. YMMV. Have a nice day.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,106 #23 January 8, 2006 www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,25149-1974978,00.html... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shropshire 0 #24 January 8, 2006 Quote His last words were, ‘Cuddle me, Daddy.’ I did and I felt him kiss me on my cheek. Then he died.” This is strong stuff - It's impossible for us to understand exactly what this family went though - 3 kids..... just cannt put into words. (.)Y(.) Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lindsey 0 #25 January 8, 2006 Half of the people who have contracted this H5N1 strain have died. That's impressive. linz-- A conservative is just a liberal who's been mugged. A liberal is just a conservative who's been to jail Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
