Fl. vs hurricanes (weather stuff) and IVAN

[akarunway 1]

New weather patterns turn Florida into a hurricane magnet

BY MARTIN MERZER

Knight Ridder Newspapers


MIAMI - (KRT) - Charley, Frances and Ivan. Three major hurricanes. Two assaults on Florida already and possibly a third by next week. Get used to it. This is the new normal.

Scientists say we are in a period of enhanced hurricane activity that could last for decades, ending a 24-year period of below average activity. They also say the law of averages has caught up with Florida, with a change in atmospheric steering currents turning the state into a hurricane magnet.

``People are suddenly alert, suddenly paying attention,'' said Stanley Goldenberg, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane research division on Virginia Key. ``They can see now that we are in an active era. ... - People should realize that it is very unlikely that Frances is the last storm the U.S. will see this year.''

Which brings us to Hurricane Ivan.

Though subject to considerable error, long-range forecasts are consistently suggesting that Ivan will strike Jamaica on Friday and Cuba on Sunday as a vicious Category 4 hurricane. The outlook improved slightly for South Florida, but the southern half of the state remained in the five-day cone of probability.

When asked if Florida can endure another hurricane, Gov. Jeb Bush pointed Tuesday to a button he wore on his shirt. It said: ``I survived damn near everything.''

``We will survive whatever comes at us,'' he said. ``We're an incredibly resilient state. I'm not being defiant; I'm only suggesting we can meet this challenge.''

If Ivan hits the state, it will be the first time since 1964 that three hurricanes smacked Florida in the same year. And September and October tend to be among the most active months of the six-month hurricane season that ends Nov. 30.

``The season is still young,'' said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County. ``It certainly seems from my perspective that we're in the active period that has been predicted. The only surprise is that Florida hasn't been hit more often in the last few years.''

A sobering thought: Between 1941 and 1950, seven major hurricanes - with winds higher than 110 mph - attacked Florida. ``And that doesn't include the other less powerful hurricanes,'' Goldenberg said. That 10-year period fell in the middle of a cycle of heightened activity that began in 1926 and persisted until 1970.

Now, the combination of complacency bred during a long lull between 1971 and 1994, the new hyperactivity since 1995 and the ongoing mega-development of Florida's coasts frightens emergency managers and scientists.

``The implications are much-increased damage when storms make landfall,'' Goldenberg said, ``and the potential for major loss of life in the event of an evacuation foul-up during a rapidly intensifying storm.''

He has more than academic interest in this. Goldenberg and his family were nearly killed when Hurricane Andrew crushed their South Miami-Dade home in 1992.

Research he later conducted with NOAA scientist Chris Landsea, private expert William Gray and others found distinct patterns of low-activity hurricane periods and high-activity periods, each of which endured for decades. These patterns, unrelated to the current concern over global warming, are caused by regular cycles of oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, such as unusually warm water in hurricane breeding grounds.

One period of ``hyperactivity'' ended in 1970 and was followed by a 24-year lull. The new period of heightened activity began in 1995 and could last for another 10 to 30 years, according to their report, which was peer-reviewed and published in 2001 in the prestigious journal Science.

In the last few years, and particularly this year, the depressing statistics related to the number, power and duration of storms appear to verify the report's depressing conclusions, especially when major hurricanes are considered.

This is significant because, though relatively few in number, major hurricanes - Category 3 or higher - cause 80 percent of all damage from tropical weather.

``We're not talking about stronger hurricanes than in the past,'' Goldenberg said. ``We're talking about more of the stronger hurricanes.''

The long-term average, including relatively quiet periods and busy periods, is 2.6 major hurricanes a year.

Between 1971 and 1994, only four years had more than two major hurricanes and none had more than three. Between 1995 and 2003, a much shorter period, seven years had three or more major hurricanes.

And we've already had four major storms this year - Alex, Charley, Frances and Ivan.

All the other numbers tell the same tale: total storms, total strength, total duration, Caribbean hurricanes, October and November hurricanes, each at least 100 percent - in some cases 500 or 1,000 percent - higher since the lull.

``That's a humongous increase,'' Goldenberg said. ``This is striking. This is not a little signal. It would be like saying the average temperature is 15 degrees warmer than last summer. It's huge. It's huge.''

Worse, atmospheric steering currents have changed to our disadvantage.

During the beginning of this active period, a persistent and beneficial bend in the jetstream carried hurricanes away from Florida. Now, that phenomenon had disappeared, replaced by a persistent ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic that is pushing them toward Florida.

What can you do?

Only one thing: Prepare.

``People should realize that, active year or slow year, we can still get hit,'' Goldenberg said. ``Remember, Andrew hit during a below-average year. The higher activity is just all the more reason to remind people that they can't let their guard down.''

(Herald correspondent Mary Ellen Klas contributed to this report.)

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© 2004, The Miami Herald.

I hold it true, whate'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all.

[unformed 0]

Cool hopefully they'll take out all of these condos and we'll get our beaches. Regardless people will learn to make better houses.

Actually, thinking about it, it makes sense. Houses made before the 70s are standing, because they knew what hurricanes could do. (Ours was in the 60s and had no problems whatsoever.) Houses made after Andrew are standing because Andrew gave them a wake-up call and legislation forced hurricane-safe housing.

Regardless, this will bring for some entertaining summers into our otherwise dead Florida season (that's right, season, we only have one season year-round).

I apologize if I sound like an asshole uncaring to other people's problems. I'm dealing with this too, it's entertaining. besides, what doesn't kill you only makes you stronger.

This ad space for sale.

[Amazon 7]

It sure sounds like a good market for a new construction phase of above ground bomb/tornado/hurricane shelters( below ground would be REALLLY stupid there in FL) . I remember the one my grandfather built back in the early 1960's in Hillsboro County East of Tampa. We even used it a few times.

[crwmike 0]

I'm losing my sense of humor about hurricanes.

Michael

[MarkM 0]

Does this mean housing prices will start to come down around here?

Heh. I don't really mind the hurricanes. They're the price you pay for living in paradise. Just be smart about where you live(solidly built house, not on a flood plain) and be prepared to be without power/stores/gas for a solid week at time if you have too.

I was frankly quite impressed by how well people down here handled Frances.

[skygrl70 0]

Okay, I'm so glad I'm in the process of selling all my sh*t to move to Palm Harbor in December. WTF!!! Although, I really do HATE the snow, the cold and all the other nasty stuff that comes with winter. Now I'm wondering WTF to do!!!!!