PhreeZone 20 #76 October 12, 2004 Just remember that as of last week Michigan was undecided also. The Great lakes and PA will be keys this year as will New Mexico.Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jimbo 0 #77 October 12, 2004 Summary There are 22 days left until the election. Bush leads by 10 in the Bush-biased electionprojection.com calculation. Kerry leads by 26 in the Kerry-biased electoral-vote.com calculation. Bush and Kerry are tied in the neutral princeton calculation. Data Source Bush Kerry Tossup Change vs. Yesterday ----------------------- ----- ----- ------ -------------------- electionprojection.com 274 * 264 0 Bush -21, Kerry +21 electoral-vote.com 254 280 * 4 Bush +6, Kerry +10 princeton 269 269 0 Bush +3, Kerry -3 average 266 271 * 1 Bush -4, Kerry +9 * met minimum necessary for election (270 votes) - Jim"Like" - The modern day comma Good bye, my friends. You are missed. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhreeZone 20 #78 October 12, 2004 Please, please, please don't let any of the states even be near as close as Flordia or New Mexico was last election! Let them win the state by 10000 votes if they are going to win it so that we don't have any courts fighting over it at all. Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Shanediver 0 #79 October 12, 2004 Quote Let them win the state by 10000 votes if they are going to win it so that we don't have any courts fighting over it at all. I'll second that! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
peacefuljeffrey 0 #80 October 12, 2004 QuoteInteresting, Florida no longer seems to be a decider. They have Kerry losing it, but stll winning. It's now all about Penn and Ohio. I am gonna laugh so hard if Kerry actually WINS Florida and LOSES the election... OH how funny that would be! -Jeffrey-Jeffrey "With tha thoughts of a militant mind... Hard line, hard line after hard line!" Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Deuce 1 #81 October 12, 2004 From National Review: Quote E-mail Author Author Archive Send to a Friend <% printurl = Request.ServerVariables("URL")%> Print Version October 12, 2004, 8:33 a.m. Follow the Yellow-State Road to the White House Battling in the powdered blue. George W. Bush was opening a significant lead over John Kerry until that fateful Thursday night when he slouched at his podium and appeared disgruntled and tired. The national polls then started to tighten and Bush's second debate performance, along with that of his running mate, seems to have been good enough to stop the bleeding and freeze the race. Whatever the national polls may say, though, a simple national plurality won't elect a president this year. A series of concurrent majorities in states all over the nation will choose the next president and that race is not quite as tight as the national polls indicate. The battle for the electoral college is close enough that either candidate has the possibility of winning, but Kerry has a hard row to hoe to get there. After consulting numerous state polls and historical trends, here is where I see the race going into the final presidential debate. Bush Red: Bush seems to have wrapped up 21 states with 176 electoral votes. Not surprisingly, most of these states spread through Dixie and up into the upper Midwest and mountain states. Kerry Blue: Kerry seems to have insurmountable leads in 10 states and the District of Columbia, worth a combined 153 electoral votes. More than half of Kerry's solid votes come from just California and New York. The remainder of the Kerry states come from the northeast corridor, except for Hawaii and Illinois. Looking only at the states solidly in one camp or another gives the impression of a rather tight electoral-college battle. However, the race in the paler states demonstrates Bush's significant advantage. Bush Pink: Bush seems likely to win another 8 states worth 88 electoral votes. Kerry Powder Blue: Kerry is poised to win 5 more states worth 67 electoral votes, including the essential states of Pennsylvania and Michigan. Toss-up Yellow: Six states are toss-ups and represent 53 electoral-college votes. Additionally, this year Maine's rural 2nd congressional district seems to be up for grabs. Maine has never split its electoral-college votes but this year it seems possible that Bush could win the district but lose the state to Kerry. In the states that are clearly leaning one way or another, Bush is ahead 264 electoral votes to 221 for John Kerry. That means that as of right now, if he holds his leads in red and pink states, Bush only needs six electoral votes from the yellow states that have not yet made up their minds. That means Bush can actually do what many have thought impossible for a Republican — win without Ohio. Bush could win New Hampshire, which he won in 2000 and New Mexico, which he only lost by 366 votes in 2000 and win the presidency with 273 electoral votes. If he wins Ohio, he can win the presidency handily without taking any other of the Yellow toss-up states. Indeed, if Bush wins Ohio's 20 electoral votes, which I assume in the end he will, he can afford to lose up to 14 of the electoral votes now showing pink and leaning his way. Kerry's road to the presidency is much more difficult. Starting from a base of only 220 electors, he has to win almost all the yellow toss-up states while holding all those leaning his way today. In fact, as things stand now, the only yellow state he can afford to lose is New Hampshire, which would give him exactly the 270 needed to win. Kerry has almost no room for error. Unless he can cut into the states leaning Bush's way, he has to run the table in every toss-up state except the Granite State. If he loses Ohio, which is likely, he would have to find 17-20 electoral votes from the pink states leaning Bush. He can do it, but a strategy for Kerry to win without Ohio could almost only come about by pulling off a victory in that state we remember so well from 2000 — Florida. Even after his poor debate performance, the electoral map tilts Bush's way with Kerry still trying to firm up the Gore states of 2000 so he can move aggressively to take the battle to Bush on his home turf. Rather than the national polls, follow the yellow-state road to the White House in 2004. — Gary L. Gregg is editor of Securing Democracy: Why We Have an Electoral College and Considering the Bush Presidency (with Mark Rozell). A faculty associate with the Intercollegiate Studies Institute, Gregg is also NRO's official electoral-college dean. Seems possible that Kerry may even win the popular vote. One of the nice things about these really tight elections is they force people to pay transitory attention to the electoral college. Signed, Ineffective Californians for Bush. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tunaplanet 0 #82 October 12, 2004 Still 240-194 in favor of Bush. Alot of the toss-up states are leaning towards Bush. Forty-two Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhreeZone 20 #83 October 12, 2004 Considering your site has'nt been updated for 2 days I would expect your number not to have changed since 2 days ago Yesterday is history And tomorrow is a mystery Parachutemanuals.com Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tunaplanet 0 #84 October 12, 2004 They usually update every 3-5 days or so. I prefer that better than these bogus sites you all list that are so skewed. I like how Rasmussen doesn't give a candidate the points from a state if it's within 5%. That gives a more reliable prediction than the others I have seen. Not to mention some of the sites you are posting are extremely biased. Forty-two Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jimbo 0 #85 October 13, 2004 Election Projection Update for 10/12 Summary There are 21 days left until the election. Bush leads by 10 in the Bush-biased electionprojection.com calculation. Bush leads by 14 in the Kerry-biased electoral-vote.com calculation. Bush and Kerry are tied in the neutral princeton calculation. Data Source Bush Kerry Tossup Change vs. Yesterday ----------------------- ----- ----- ------ -------------------- electionprojection.com 274 * 264 0 No change electoral-vote.com 274 * 260 4 Bush +20, Kerry -20 princeton 269 269 0 No change average 272 * 264 2 Bush +6, Kerry -7 * met minimum necessary for election (270 votes) "Like" - The modern day comma Good bye, my friends. You are missed. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,009 #86 October 13, 2004 Looks like the GOP thinks that Nevada is a state in danger of going to Kerry: ------------------------------------------ KTLA-TV (Oct. 12) -- Employees of a private voter registration company allege that hundreds, perhaps thousands of voters who may think they are registered will be rudely surprised on election day. The company claims hundreds of registration forms were thrown in the trash. Anyone who has recently registered or re-registered to vote outside a mall or grocery store or even government building may be affected. The I-Team has obtained information about an alleged widespread pattern of potential registration fraud aimed at democrats. Thee focus of the story is a private registration company called Voters Outreach of America, AKA America Votes. The out-of-state firm has been in Las Vegas for the past few months, registering voters. It employed up to 300 part-time workers and collected hundreds of registrations per day, but former employees of the company say that Voters Outreach of America only wanted Republican registrations. Two former workers say they personally witnessed company supervisors rip up and trash registration forms signed by Democrats. "We caught her taking Democrats out of my pile, handed them to her assistant and he ripped them up right in front of us. I grabbed some of them out of the garbage and she tells her assisatnt to get those from me," said Eric Russell, former Voters Outreach employee. Eric Russell managed to retrieve a pile of shredded paperwork including signed voter registration forms, all from Democrats. We took them to the Clark County Election Department and confirmed that they had not, in fact, been filed with the county as required by law. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jimbo 0 #87 October 13, 2004 QuoteTwo former workers say they personally witnessed company supervisors rip up and trash registration forms signed by Democrats. "We caught her taking Democrats out of my pile, handed them to her assistant and he ripped them up right in front of us. I grabbed some of them out of the garbage and she tells her assisatnt to get those from me," said Eric Russell, former Voters Outreach employee. Eric Russell managed to retrieve a pile of shredded paperwork including signed voter registration forms, all from Democrats. We took them to the Clark County Election Department and confirmed that they had not, in fact, been filed with the county as required by law. If this turns out to be as written, these people ought to be drawn and quartered. Reading your article, Bill, I don't see the part where Nevada is in danger of going to the Democrats. Are we to assume that whereever we find this sort of reprehensible behavious that it's because the state is in danger of going to the other guy? - Jim"Like" - The modern day comma Good bye, my friends. You are missed. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jimbo 0 #88 October 15, 2004 Election Projection Update for 10/13 Summary There are 20 days left until the election. Bush leads by 10 in the Bush-biased electionprojection.com calculation. Bush leads by 63 in the Kerry-biased electoral-vote.com calculation. Bush leads by 24 in the neutral princeton calculation. Data Source Bush Kerry Tossup Change vs. Yesterday ----------------------- ----- ----- ------ -------------------- electionprojection.com 274 * 264 0 No change electoral-vote.com 291 * 228 19 Bush +17, Kerry -32 princeton 281 * 257 0 Bush +12, Kerry -12 average 282 * 250 6 Bush +10, Kerry -14 * met minimum necessary for election (270 votes) - Jim"Like" - The modern day comma Good bye, my friends. You are missed. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jimbo 0 #89 October 15, 2004 Election Projection Update for 10/14 Summary There are 19 days left until the election. Bush leads by 10 in the Bush-biased electionprojection.com calculation. Bush leads by 56 in the Kerry-biased electoral-vote.com calculation. Bush leads by 24 in the neutral princeton calculation. Data Source Bush Kerry Tossup Change vs. Yesterday ----------------------- ----- ----- ------ -------------------- electionprojection.com 274 * 264 0 No change electoral-vote.com 284 * 228 26 Bush -7, Kerry +/- 0 princeton 281 * 257 0 No change average 280 * 250 8 Bush -2, Kerry +/- 0 * met minimum necessary for election (270 votes) - Jim"Like" - The modern day comma Good bye, my friends. You are missed. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhillyKev 0 #90 October 15, 2004 Something confuses me about these numbers. Like, why does Bush lead in the "Kerry biased" calculation more than in the "Bush biased"? If it were Kerry biased wouldn't that mean it leans more favorably toward Kerry? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lummy 4 #91 October 15, 2004 The "Kerry Biased" website has an algorithym to post poll reports based on the latest polls available regardless of source. For example, some of the battleground state's polls listed are from a clearly right leaning organization but they are the latest polls. The webmaster clearly states that he is a Democrat and points you to a "republican leaning" website of similar content if you would prefer itI promise not to TP Davis under canopy.. I promise not to TP Davis under canopy.. eat sushi, get smoochieTTK#1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #92 October 15, 2004 Results seem to imply that the pollsters might be above such partisan behavior. Their selected methods may lead to a bias, but it doesn't appear that they're changing their methods when it suits them. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rhino 0 #93 October 15, 2004 QuoteMSN has had Michigan listed as leaning Kerry for at least 2 weeks now Bush will not take Michigan... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lummy 4 #94 October 16, 2004 QuoteResults seem to imply that the pollsters might be above such partisan behavior. Their selected methods may lead to a bias, but it doesn't appear that they're changing their methods when it suits them. Are you talking about the web site or an individual polling firm?I promise not to TP Davis under canopy.. I promise not to TP Davis under canopy.. eat sushi, get smoochieTTK#1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jimbo 0 #95 October 16, 2004 Election Project Update for 10/15 Summary There are 18 days left until the election. Bush leads by 10 in the Bush-biased electionprojection.com calculation. Bush leads by 56 in the Kerry-biased electoral-vote.com calculation. Bush leads by 24 in the neutral princeton calculation. Data Source Bush Kerry Tossup Change vs. Yesterday ----------------------- ----- ----- ------ -------------------- electionprojection.com 274 * 264 0 No change electoral-vote.com 284 * 228 26 No change princeton 281 * 257 0 No change average 280 * 250 8 No change * met minimum necessary for election (270 votes) - Jim"Like" - The modern day comma Good bye, my friends. You are missed. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jimbo 0 #96 October 16, 2004 QuoteIf it were Kerry biased wouldn't that mean it leans more favorably toward Kerry? Motivation is my guess, though I can't be sure. The Kerry biased polls inflate the Bush numbers to motivate the Kerry supporters. The Bush biased polls deflate the Bush numbers to motivate the Bush supporters. Again, just a guess. - Jim"Like" - The modern day comma Good bye, my friends. You are missed. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jimbo 0 #97 October 17, 2004 Election Project Results for 10/16 Summary There are 17 days left until the election. Bush leads by 10 in the Bush-biased electionprojection.com calculation. Bush leads by 14 in the Kerry-biased electoral-vote.com calculation. Bush leads by 24 in the neutral princeton calculation. Data Source Bush Kerry Tossup Change vs. Yesterday ----------------------- ----- ----- ------ -------------------- electionprojection.com 274 * 264 0 No change electoral-vote.com 257 243 38 Bush -27, Kerry +15 princeton 281 * 257 0 No change average 271 * 255 12 Bush -9, Kerry +5 * met minimum necessary for election (270 votes) - Jim"Like" - The modern day comma Good bye, my friends. You are missed. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jimbo 0 #98 October 19, 2004 Election Project Results for 10/17 Summary There are 16 days left until the election. Bush leads by 10 in the Bush-biased electionprojection.com calculation. Kerry leads by 6 in the Kerry-biased electoral-vote.com calculation. Bush leads by 18 in the neutral princeton calculation. Data Source Bush Kerry Tossup Change vs. Yesterday ----------------------- ----- ----- ------ -------------------- electionprojection.com 274 * 264 0 No change electoral-vote.com 247 253 38 Bush -10, Kerry +10 princeton 278 * 260 0 Bush -3, Kerry +3 average 266 259 13 Bush -5, Kerry +4 * met minimum necessary for election (270 votes) - Jim"Like" - The modern day comma Good bye, my friends. You are missed. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jimbo 0 #99 October 19, 2004 Election Project Results for 10/18 Summary There are 15 days left until the election. Bush leads by 10 in the Bush-biased electionprojection.com calculation. Kerry leads by 10 in the Kerry-biased electoral-vote.com calculation. Bush leads by 24 in the neutral princeton calculation. Data Source Bush Kerry Tossup Change vs. Yesterday ----------------------- ----- ----- ------ -------------------- electionprojection.com 274 * 264 0 No change electoral-vote.com 247 257 34 Bush +/- 0, Kerry +4 princeton 281 * 257 0 Bush +3, Kerry -3 average 267 259 12 Bush +1, Kerry +/- 0 * met minimum necessary for election (270 votes) - Jim"Like" - The modern day comma Good bye, my friends. You are missed. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gkc1436 3 #100 October 19, 2004 funny thing......... our vote still does not count..... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
