tunaplanet 0 #101 October 26, 2004 Latest poll is... Bush - 222 Kerry - 207 Forty-two Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Muenkel 0 #102 October 26, 2004 The Weekly Reader...remember that as a kid...conducts their own presidential poll. They have not been wrong since '52. Their poll shows a commanding victory for Bush. http://www.weeklyreader.com/election_vote.asp _________________________________________ Chris Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
quade 4 #103 October 26, 2004 Well, if you're looking at "children's polls" then you'll also want to look at the Nickelodeon Poll. http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/20/campaign.kids.reut/ I think the two polls cancel each other out, which is good, since kids aren't allowed to vote.quade - The World's Most Boring Skydiver Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,009 #104 October 26, 2004 So hard to say. The Nickelodeon kid's poll has never been wrong, and they're a landslide for Kerry. But then again, the halloween mask numbers are slightly in GWB's favor. I haven't consulted the tea leaves or the chicken bones yet, though. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Muenkel 0 #105 October 26, 2004 Oh lighten up! It was not meant to be serious. But since you brought up the Nickelodeon poll, they have only been conducting such poll since '88. The Weekly Reader has a 32 year jump on them. _________________________________________ Chris Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
quade 4 #106 October 26, 2004 Ok, how about this then . . . What did GWB do to piss of the 10th graders? http://www.weeklyreader.com/election_results.aspquade - The World's Most Boring Skydiver Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Muenkel 0 #107 October 26, 2004 QuoteWhat did GWB do to piss of the 10th graders? He told them that both his daughters already had boyfriends and were not into 15 year olds. _________________________________________ Chris Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #108 October 26, 2004 QuoteThe Weekly Reader...remember that as a kid...conducts their own presidential poll. They have not been wrong since '52. Their poll shows a commanding victory for Bush. Redskins have a longer track record with same level of validity. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Shotgun 1 #109 October 26, 2004 Slightly off-subject, but I just read an interesting article on the public opinion polls: Quote85 Percent of Public Believes Bush's Approval Rating Fell In Last Month WASHINGTON, DC—According to a Gallup public-opinion opinion poll released Monday, a solid 85 percent of the American people strongly believe that the American people no longer strongly believe that Bush is performing effectively as president. "Due to perceived dissatisfaction over the economy, a strong majority of Americans believe that a strong majority of Americans believe that Bush's reputation has taken a hit," said Paul Mallock, a spokesman for Gallup. "In addition, we discovered a small but growing minority that believes a small but vocal minority is dissatisfied with the way the president is handling the situation in Iraq. The small but growing minority we found believes that a small but vocal group of Americans thinks that reconstruction is messier and more expensive than Bush originally said it would be." Of the 10,577 U.S. adults polled, 8,891 "strongly agreed" that more Americans "strongly disapproved" of the president's current performance. Mallock said the poll, in which public perception of Bush's popularity fell to its lowest point since he took office, may be a cause for worry among GOP leaders. "This is a potentially devastating public commentary on the perceived public opinion that Bush will use to guide his re-election campaign," Mallock said. "In fact, some see this as the most dramatic midterm shift in the public's perception of popular opinion of the presidency since Carter was in office. The Carter Administration was, as you may recall, believed to be very poorly regarded." Of those polled, 68 percent said that "at least half" of Americans think that consumer confidence has dropped by "at least 50 percent" since Bush took office. One out of every three participants also noted that one out of four Americans believed that Bush was at least partially to blame for the perceived drop. "I'm not surprised," said Barry Amodale, a Plano, TX, systems analyst. "I had a feeling that Americans were feeling that way. I heard that the voters were wondering how the average citizen thought Bush would explain his $87 billion request to the taxpayers, too." Amodale's opinion seems to reflect a recent rise in the popular regard of general opinion. "I saw something on CNN about the White House response to a Time magazine story about Congress' reaction to Bush's tax cut," Mammoth Falls, PA, schoolteacher Robert Brinley said. "I guess that story really made people think about how people think." The opinions of Bush's approval rating, as revealed by the poll, are already beginning to affect public opinion. "Until last week, I didn't know that people had such strong opinions about public opinion about Bush," said Greg Simon, a Chicago-area realtor. "I may have to reconsider my feelings about the president. I wouldn't want people to think that I don't think that what they think is important." Such public reactions to Gallup-poll findings are typical, Mallock said. "We often see a desire to acquiesce among survey participants," polling-analysis analyst Tamara Bello-Dockett said. "There's a pendulum effect to the feedback loop generated by the see-saw aspect of how people form their opinions about their perceptions of others' beliefs. This does make it somewhat difficult for us to know exactly what the American people are actually saying about how the public is feeling about popular thinking, if you see what I mean." Gallup-poll results are accurate to within plus or minus 3 percent. Link to original article Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SkyDekker 1,465 #110 October 26, 2004 And I am sure Bush is hoping that Brett Favre will not recover from his wrist injury sustained this past weekend. In the last 17 US Presidential Elections, a Red Skins win in the weekend preceding the lection was followed by a win for the incumbent....... Packers - Skins the game that will predict it all...... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Casurf1978 0 #111 October 28, 2004 This site is pretty good. Princeton Prof, bioscience and nueroscience, runs it: http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mardigrasbob 0 #112 October 28, 2004 Electoral College calculator lookreachpull.com/ec_calc.html ---------- Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tunaplanet 0 #113 October 28, 2004 Rasmussen is the best. Forty-two Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Casurf1978 0 #114 October 28, 2004 Why? I looked at the website to find out how they calculate the electoral college results and came up blank. They said they have the 'world's most comprehensive Election 2004 database' yet provide not info on where they gather this data from. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,009 #115 October 28, 2004 Electoral-vote.com contains the most data - they include ALL the recent polls, from Zogby to Rasmussen to Gallup, and they update the site with the most recent daily. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tunaplanet 0 #116 November 1, 2004 Bush - 222 Flipper - 186 Forty-two Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #117 November 1, 2004 QuoteBush - 222 Flipper - 186 Electoral-vote - who clearly is Kerry leaning based on their humor section, but nonetheless... Today has Kerry at 283 - 246, thanks to Oct 30 polling from Zogby giving him Florida, Penn, Michigan, and Minnesota. As it writes, all within the margin of error, but the trend line has gone towards Kerry. Thankfully I managed to mail my ballot out in time to avoid a drive to Berkeley on Tuesday. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
likearock 2 #118 November 1, 2004 QuoteQuoteBush - 222 Flipper - 186 Electoral-vote - who clearly is Kerry leaning based on their humor section, but nonetheless... Today has Kerry at 283 - 246, thanks to Oct 30 polling from Zogby giving him Florida, Penn, Michigan, and Minnesota. As it writes, all within the margin of error, but the trend line has gone towards Kerry. Thankfully I managed to mail my ballot out in time to avoid a drive to Berkeley on Tuesday. If you look more closely at that 283 - 246, it includes 87 votes from "Barely Kerry" but only 17 points from "Barely Bush". Which means there a many more borderline states that have to break in Kerry's favor in order to achieve that vote. However, nobody knows how the increased turnout and cell-phone factor will tend to change the election's outcome. Wayne Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,009 #119 November 1, 2004 On the pro-Kerry side: -The current electoral vote, counting states that have even a razor-thin margin either way, is 298-231 Kerry. -Traditionally, the incumbent's pre-election percentage is very close to his actual percentage. Thus, in a non-Nader state, if Bush is polling at 48% of the vote compared to Kerry's 47%, historically he will _get_ 48% of the vote - and Kerry will get the rest (52%.) -Most polls use landline phones, and thus discount people who only use cellphones. A very recent cellphone-only SMS poll showed a 55%-40% split in favor of Kerry. However, they also tend to be younger, and younger voters tend to have lower turnouts. On the pro-Bush side: -If you look at non-close states, Bush is leading by a pretty healthy margin. -Although there has been no polling data to corroborate this, the Osama suprise is likely to work in Bush's favor. -Many of the factors that favor the challenger in a close race may be erased by larger voter turnout. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tunaplanet 0 #120 November 1, 2004 We all know the latest Electoral College Poll is Bush 222 and Kerry 186. Here is a breakdown of the four big swing states. The first number will be Bush and the second Kerry. Florida - 50-45 Michigan - 47-50 Pennsylvania - 46-49 Ohio - 50-46 Forty-two Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PhillyKev 0 #121 November 1, 2004 I saw an encouraging snippet in the paper over the weekend. The last CNN poll before the 2000 election had Gore with less than 40%. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kelpdiver 2 #122 November 2, 2004 QuoteQuote Today has Kerry at 283 - 246, thanks to Oct 30 polling from Zogby giving him Florida, Penn, Michigan, and Minnesota. As it writes, all within the margin of error, but the trend line has gone towards Kerry. If you look more closely at that 283 - 246, it includes 87 votes from "Barely Kerry" but only 17 points from "Barely Bush". Which means there a many more borderline states that have to break in Kerry's favor in order to achieve that vote. I think that point is clearly spelled out, Wayne. If you're a Kerry supporter, you're a lot happier with you having a 40pt lead based on weak leads rather than a 40pt deficit. Don't know if the difference is statistically relevent, but you still want to be on the leading edge. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,009 #123 November 2, 2004 > We all know the latest Electoral College Poll is Bush 222 and Kerry 186. By the very latest polls (today's) the count is Kerry 230 Bush 205; that's excluding swing states. (BTW that's just taking the very latest polls without cherry-picking the ones you like.) > Here is a breakdown of the four big swing states. The first number will be > Bush and the second Kerry. Florida: Zogby K48 B47 CNN K43 B50 Miami Herald statewide K46 B46 Pennsylvania: Gallup K50 B46 Quinnipac K47 B47 CNN K46 B50 Ohio: CNN K50 B46 Mason-Dixon K46 B48 LATimes K50 B44 Michigan: Mason-Dixon K47 B45 Detroit News K43 B41 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tunaplanet 0 #124 November 2, 2004 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm Forty-two Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,009 #125 November 2, 2004 >If you look more closely at that 283 - 246, it includes 87 votes >from "Barely Kerry" but only 17 points from "Barely Bush" Today overall: B231 K298 Excluding barely-bush-or-kerry states: B205 K230 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
