Predictions by Sullivan

[billvon 3,073]

Everyone likes to make predictions, and even more people like to ridicule other people's predictions. One of the problems is that sometimes those predictions come partly true.

Andrew Sullivan has "von Hoffman" awards that he gives out for predictions that are spectacularly wrong. Check out some of his von Hoffman awards from days past (remember, these are predictions he is claiming are _dead_wrong_:)

von Hoffman award 3: "[Al-Jazeera has shown] the resistance and anger of the Iraqi population, dismissed by Western propaganda as a sullen bunch waiting to throw flowers at Clint Eastwood lookalikes ... The idea that Iraq's population would have welcomed American forces entering the country after a terrifying aerial bombardment was always utterly implausible ... One can only wince at the way weak-minded policy hacks in the Pentagon and White House have spun out the 'ideas' of Lewis and Ajami into the scenario for a quick romp in a friendly Iraq ... pity the Iraqi civilians who must still suffer a great deal more before they are finally 'liberated'." - Edward Said

von Hoffman award 4:"Iraqis, very clearly, do not want to be 'liberated,' even many who had long opposed Saddam's brutal regime. To the contrary, the US-British invasion appears to have ignited genuine national resistance among 17 million Arab Iraqis, just as the 1941 German invasion of the USSR rallied Russians and Ukrainians behind Stalin's hated regime. ... The nasty, bloody urban warfare the Americans and Brits sought to avoid at all costs is now confronting them." - Eric Margolis

von Hoffman award 5: "The huge psychological victory for the coalition produced by the arrival of US tanks in front of the media centre in Baghdad has not finished off the regime, even though this coup came so soon after their shock arrival at the international airport. A compilation of the military detail in reports from journalists in Baghdad and an ear for the changing spin from Centcom gives a less victorious picture of the battle for the Iraqi capital than is shown in the media. For example, for three hours on Saturday Centcom said the US was in Baghdad to stay, not on a raid. Then, after some armoured vehicles had been damaged and some troops killed and injured, it became a raid as the troops withdrew. The selective and censored TV coverage obscures a military reality that has been neither as successful nor as difficult as it has seemed. Now, reports of total victory may be premature." - Dan Plesch

von Hoffman award 6: "As the war drags on, any stifled sympathy for the American invasion will tend to evaporate. As more civilians die and more Iraqis see their "resistance" hailed across the Arab world as a watershed in the struggle against Western imperialism, the traditionally despised Saddam could gain appreciable support among his people. So, the Pentagon's failure to send enough troops to take Baghdad fairly quickly could complicate the postwar occupation, to say nothing of the war itself." - Robert Wright

von Hoffman award 7: "These are the last days of relative calm before we start bombing and massacring hundreds of thousands of people and in so doing enter into what many believe will a very long, drawn-out, insanely expensive, volatile, destabilizing, completely unwinnable war against a cheap thug of an opponent who has negligible military might and zero capacity to actually harm the U.S. in any substantive way. U-S-A! U-S-A! This will not be Desert Storm. This will not be quick and painless.. . . "

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Imagine, those idiots who predicted the war would not be quick and painless! Who do they think they are, claiming we need more troops, or that Iraqis will suffer during the occupation? Good thing Sullivan disregards such cranks in favor of those who think everything will be fine.

[TomAiello 26]

Who is Andrew Sullivan?

-- Tom Aiello

Tom@SnakeRiverBASE.com
SnakeRiverBASE.com

[ahegeman 0]

The most conflicted man on earth.

A gay, HIV-positive, Catholic conservative.

Probably the most well-known weblogger.

edited to add:
He would probably tell you he's not conflicted, that there is no inherent conflict between being Catholic, gay, and conservative. Of course he's wrong, but he SHOULD be right.

edited again to add:
But WTF do I know? I'm not Catholic, gay, or conservative. Maybe I should just shut up now.

edited yet once again to add:
Here's his blog: http://andrewsullivan.com/index.php. OK, I'm drukn. No more posting for me.

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There is a fine line between 'hobby' and 'mental illness'.
--Dave Barry

[AggieDave 6]

Quote

Probably the most well-known weblogger.

What about Will Wheaton? He's a well known weblogger.

--"When I die, may I be surrounded by scattered chrome and burning gasoline."

[ahegeman 0]

Quote

***What about Will Wheaton? He's a well known weblogger.

Ugh.

Actually, its Wil, with one "l". But I take no pride in correcting you on that. Actually, I'm sorta ashamed that I did.

Edited to add:
I take that back. I'm REALLY ashamed that I corrected you.

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There is a fine line between 'hobby' and 'mental illness'.
--Dave Barry

[AggieDave 6]

Hahaha...

Atleast someone knows who I referenced...that whiney little SOB..."I can't get jobs now because i'm type casted..." you're famous so STFU.

--"When I die, may I be surrounded by scattered chrome and burning gasoline."

[ahegeman 0]

He's famous for being a whiny turd. How good is that?

---------------------------------------------------------------
There is a fine line between 'hobby' and 'mental illness'.
--Dave Barry

[Gawain 0]

Quote

He's famous for being a whiny turd. How good is that?

And he enjoys studying dilithium crystals in his spare time. What a geek too....

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!