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ChasingBlueSky

Iran all over the news today

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Explosion 60 miles south of nuke power plant. Some news stations calling it from a missle, others from a dropped fuel tank. Still no 'offical' details:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,147764,00.html

Iran and Syria form united front against the US was just reported under "breaking news" on WGN TV.

Iran claims US is flying drones over nuke plants and they will shoot them down:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=504418


Iran will have ability to make bomb in six months:
http://wireservice.wired.com/wired/story.asp?section=Breaking&storyId=991513&tw=wn_wire_story
_________________________________________
you can burn the land and boil the sea, but you can't take the sky from me....
I WILL fly again.....

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sorry but this was too funny. It is in the last link you have.

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"They are trying very hard to develop the nuclear bomb. This kind of extreme regime with a nuclear bomb is a nightmare, not only for us," Shalom told reporters at the London briefing.



Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.
I'd rather be hated for who I am, than loved for who I am not." - Kurt Cobain

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Latest on the "explosion" is that it may be a construction blast, rather than a missle or a fuel tank falling off. I wonder what it is; one of the three, or...something else?

This will be interesting to see what happens...scary interseting, but interesting nonetheless.

Ciels-
Michele


~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek
While our hearts lie bleeding?~

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I have no problems with Israel having a nuclear bomb. They're not the types to sell it off to the highest bidder. Iran, well would you trust them with a nuke. IMHO what kept Saddam at bay in GW1 was that he knew if he attacked Israel with Bio or Chem weapons they most likely they would've retaliated with nukes. Now imagine if Israel didn't knock out Saddam's nuclear plant in the 80s and he acquired the ability to build such weapons.

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Explosion 60 miles south of nuke power plant



Wow those precision municitions are getting a lot more accurate .... :P


The TV news stated that it was some sort of fuck up, where someone heard a bang and got the wrong idea .... isn't paranoia great?

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

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>Iran, well would you trust them with a nuke.

We 'trusted' the USSR with enough nukes to destroy the US - and if you remember back to the 70's and the 80's, the USSR was evil incarnate. I put trust in quotes because of course we didn't trust them. But we survived because neither country wanted to start a war they would both lose.

>IMHO what kept Saddam at bay in GW1 was that he knew if he
>attacked Israel with Bio or Chem weapons they most likely they
>would've retaliated with nukes

So we trusted Saddam to not do anything stupid with his WMD's because he didn't want to get attacked with WMD's. In other words, MAD worked with a tyrant. But it won't work with Iran?

A world where every tinpot dictator has WMD's is not a nice one to contemplate, but it will eventually happen. The number of countries with nukes has been growing since the 50's and will continue to do so. We'll eventually have to learn how to deal with it.

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Trouble is, the little punks realize that nukes aren't worth shit unless you use them, and that's where the trouble lies.

The US has had a nuclear arsenal for 60 years now - what good (aside from MAD wrt the USSR, of course) have they done us?

Maybe the US ought to renounce nukes and get on the nuke-free side of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

mh

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"The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat."

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F*ing with the Iranians would be a colossal mistake. They are a great deal feistier than their Arab counterparts. Saddam was surprised to find that out the hard way. We should learn from his (albeit bad) example.

mh

.
"The mouse does not know life until it is in the mouth of the cat."

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> Trouble is, the little punks realize that nukes aren't worth shit unless
>you use them, and that's where the trouble lies.

Oh, I think everyone in the world now realizes that having nukes means that the US treats you with a whole different level of respect - and countries want that respect. If all that a small nuclear arsenal does is prevent preemptive invasions by the US (or China, or whoever) then many countries will consider them money well spent.

>The US has had a nuclear arsenal for 60 years now - what good (aside
>from MAD wrt the USSR, of course) have they done us?

You realize that we did use them during WWII, right?

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We 'trusted' the USSR with enough nukes to destroy the US - and if you remember back to the 70's and the 80's, the USSR was evil incarnate.



All good points, but can you really compare the USSR to Iran. Both sides knew that a nuclear war would be the end of the human race. Thus MAD worked in a sick kindof way. Could you say that same thing about a fundamentalist terrorist. Could MAD work with a real nutcase like OBL or one of his followers?

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In other words, MAD worked with a tyrant. But it won't work with Iran?



SH was a tyrant but smart enough to know he didn't want to die or lose his power. Could you say the same thing about Iran.

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>SH was a tyrant but smart enough to know he didn't want to die or
> lose his power. Could you say the same thing about Iran.

It's probably safe to say that they don't want to die or lose power. Are they as rational as Hussein or Musharraf? Probably; they're certainly more rational than Jong-Il. Are they as rational as we would like? Probably not.

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It's probably safe to say that they don't want to die or lose power. Are they as rational as Hussein or Musharraf? Probably; they're certainly more rational than Jong-Il. Are they as rational as we would like? Probably not.



What do you think OBL would do if he had a nuke?
"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334

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F*ing with the Iranians would be a colossal mistake. They are a great deal feistier than their Arab counterparts. Saddam was surprised to find that out the hard way. We should learn from his (albeit bad) example.

mh

.



Iran is one country I don't think we should be playing chicken with. The dominos are set up and just waiting for Bush to topple them. We can't handle Iraq as it is, now imagine having to cover Iraq, Iran, Syria and Afghan!

I'm just curious how we, as a country, would react if we found N Korea flying drones over Alaska??
_________________________________________
you can burn the land and boil the sea, but you can't take the sky from me....
I WILL fly again.....

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Probably use it as a threat



For what reason?

I think he would use it. He has already shown that he wants to create Terror. We have not been able to find or kill him.

I think he would "Strike a Great Blow against the Infidels". And by doing so secure his 72 Virgins.

A state like Israel will not sell/give them away if they had them. NK and Lil' Kim just want them as barganing chips for food and aid. Iran wants to have them to prevent the US from invading.

But out of all three, I'd rather Iran not be playing with nukes.
"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334

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I'm just curious how we, as a country, would react if we found N Korea flying drones over Alaska?? ***



Thank you for asking that question. We tend to forget how our government and people would react.
We the United States do have a tendency to think we are better, and we make our own rules.
Not a very democratic way to look at the world.
I'd rather be hated for who I am, than loved for who I am not." - Kurt Cobain

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But we survived because neither country wanted to start a war they would both lose.



there is one flaw in this theory. the USSR and the US were 2 countries with a specific list of targets to hit in case any of them starts a war.
today's war is doesnt have a "return address".
if a nuke blows up half of manhattan, how do you know who put it there?

as i said in other posts, i dont think Iran will use nukes directly, but i think its more than possible that nukes or radioactive leftovers will reach the wrong hands operating in the name of allah (or at least their twisted views of it...)
O
"Carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero."

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>For what reason?

To create terror. That's what terrorists do. It's sort of the definition. If you have one nuke, and you use it, you can create terror and mayhem once. If you bluff with it you can do it a dozen times - and it's a thousand times easier to do. Just make a videotape.

>A state like Israel will not sell/give them away if they had them.

I think they would give them away in a New York minute if they thought they could benefit from the exchange. If, say, Turkey approached them and said "we want to sign a mutual defense pact with you; sell us some nukes and we'll confront the threat together" I bet they would seriously consider the offer.

>NK and Lil' Kim just want them as barganing chips for food and aid.
>Iran wants to have them to prevent the US from invading.

I think Jong-Il is also thinking about preventing us from invading, but in general I agree with you.

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Thank you for asking that question. We tend to forget how our government and people would react.
We the United States do have a tendency to think we are better, and we make our own rules.
Not a very democratic way to look at the world.



The United States thinks we are better because we are better. We make our own rules because we are a sovereign state. That's what sovereign states do.

A democratic way to look at the world? Does that make any sense? First, the USA is not a democracy. Second, the world is not a democracy. There are no worldwide elections.

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The United States thinks we are better because we are better. We make our own rules because we are a sovereign state. That's what sovereign states do.



Yep. Our wonderful blue planet is fully of sovereign states. Living with their own rules. Not the ones of the US. Can you imagine this? I feel sure, there is only one nation in the world asking for US ideals and rules: The US itself. :)

dudeist skydiver # 3105

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>the USSR and the US were 2 countries with a specific list of targets to hit
>in case any of them starts a war. today's war is doesnt have a "return address".

That's definitely a problem. But that's a problem with terrorist groups, not with Iran. Anyone with a map knows where Tehran is.

>i dont think Iran will use nukes directly, but i think its more than possible
> that nukes or radioactive leftovers will reach the wrong hands operating in
>the name of allah (or at least their twisted views of it...)

In October 2004, Halliburton lost a large shipment of americinium, a highly radioactive isotope. It was later found sitting unprotected on a loading dock in Boston. The IIS estimates that 40kg of weapons-grade plutonium has been lost within the former USSR. We've lost several fuel rods from commercial nuclear reactors in the past 20 years. Over the years the US has lost 11 working nuclear weapons in accidents. Which isn't suprising since we built about 70,000 of them - that's a loss rate of only .016%, which is pretty good. Since only about 11,000 are even close to usable, that's a lot of spare nuclear material sitting around.

In other words, we've LOST more nuclear weapons than Iran and North Korea have built even by optimistic estimates of their capabilities.

To put it another way - what's going to be easier? For Osama bin Laden to get a working nuclear weapon, modify it to work by remote control, find a shipping company willing to endure the wrath of the US military (and send a crew to their deaths) ship a container to NY harbor, and detonate it by remote control - or send one guy across the border to find some discarded nuclear waste in the US and put it in a drum with some ANFO? The risk isn't that Iran will sell nuclear weapons to Bin Laden - the big risk is that someone will use our own nuclear waste (or weapons!) against us.

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If you have one nuke, and you use it, you can create terror and mayhem once. If you bluff with it you can do it a dozen times - and it's a thousand times easier to do. Just make a videotape.



if one nuke explodes, how do you know they had only one? wouldnt a video tape be more effective after they've proved they can do it? after all, no one took their video tapes too seriously before 9/11.

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>A state like Israel will not sell/give them away if they had them.

I think they would give them away in a New York minute if they thought they could benefit from the exchange. If, say, Turkey approached them and said "we want to sign a mutual defense pact with you; sell us some nukes and we'll confront the threat together" I bet they would seriously consider the offer.



you have no idea how wrong you are about that. turkey is an ally of israel, but so was Iran before the revolution.
Israel is believed to have had nukes since the 60's, until now it didnt even admit it let alone share it.
and at this point, the US holds nukes in turkey. if turkey really wants them they can easily take them by force.
O
"Carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero."

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