Iran all over the news today

[falxori 0]

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That's definitely a problem. But that's a problem with terrorist groups, not with Iran. Anyone with a map knows where Tehran is

yes, and thats exactly why they chose to attack israel at the moment in an indirect way (giving tons of weapons to hizbollah for example).
if OBL got a nuke, you wouldn't know if it came from Iran, Saudi arabia, or bought independently from another country.

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In other words, we've LOST more nuclear weapons

one risk doesn't make the other go away. "lost" radioactive materials are a huge risk and is irresponsible. but there is a difference between losing stuff and arming someone knowingly.

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To put it another way - what's going to be easier? For Osama bin Laden to get a working nuclear weapon, modify it to work by remote control, find a shipping company willing to endure the wrath of the US military (and send a crew to their deaths) ship a container to NY harbor, and detonate it by remote control - or send one guy across the border to find some discarded nuclear waste in the US and put it in a drum with some ANFO?

both are a threat. and i dont think they'll have a problem with "sending a crew to their deaths" or "controlling it remotely". i dont remember any of the 9/11 planes being controlled remotely.

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The risk isn't that Iran will sell nuclear weapons to Bin Laden - the big risk is that someone will use our own nuclear waste (or weapons!) against us.

i think both are risks that should be considered.

O

"Carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero."

[nacmacfeegle 0]

"The IIS estimates that 40kg of weapons-grade plutonium has been lost within the former USSR."

Sounds a wee bit light to me Bill, however Kallend and I had a chat about this last year I think, much of these losses are down to the way the stuff is actually accounted for, example in todays press here about 40kg missing from Sellafield in England...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4272691.stm.

Now then, is this method of accounting for radioactive material acceptable...not in my opinion.

"the big risk is that someone will use our own nuclear waste (or weapons!) against us."

You and I both know this is the most likely scenario, especially when the people building and deploying the device don't care about their own survivability. Problem is with this scenario, how do you mitigate against such an attack? If you think current measures are draconian, try living with a border lockdown. Its unworkable.

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He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me. Thomas Jefferson

[Ron 10]

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>For what reason?

To create terror. That's what terrorists do. It's sort of the definition. If you have one nuke, and you use it, you can create terror and mayhem once. If you bluff with it you can do it a dozen times - and it's a thousand times easier to do. Just make a videotape.

Ok, thats why they say in a video tape they have TWO weapons, and one of them is going to blast the shit out of NY...And when it does then the next "threat" is gonna casue MUCH more panic

Japan in WWII thought we had an arsenal of Atomic weapons....Little did they know we only had the two we used. But they THOUGHT we had hundereds (and we encouaged them to think that). That made them surrender.

A Nuke is only good for a bargaining chip in four ways:

1. MAD. You bomb me, and I'll waste you also. Think Russia and US in the 70's.

2. Invade me and I will waste some of you in a really neat way. Iran.

3. Help me and I will not have to have these things....Kinda like 2, but more. This is Lil' Kim and NK.

4. Do what I say or I'll stomp you. Think US today. This only works against a Non nuke country...Otherwise you have MAD. Also the first Country to lob a nuke will be toast. The world will rise up against them and they will be destroyed...Even the US.

The real nuclear threat is from a rouge element that wants power and to envoke fear, but has no Country to lose. OBL is such a nut bag. You can't use a nuke and people know where you are.

Think about it...If Iraq had WMD, and they had used a Nuke to hit Israel....Would you have minded if the World had crushed them?

As someone else said...You can't use a nuke if you have a return address.

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I think they would give them away in a New York minute if they thought they could benefit from the exchange. If, say, Turkey approached them and said "we want to sign a mutual defense pact with you; sell us some nukes and we'll confront the threat together" I bet they would seriously consider the offer.

Why Israel has the US on their side? Turkey would be great, but I doubt anyone wants to hand over a nuclear weapon.

The risk is that the more people that have them the bigger chance one will dissapear.

In your numbers you said the US "Broken Missle" rate is like .016%. Still that leaves what 11,000 you said? I have seen reports that state that some of those are lost at sea...We can't get them, so I doubt anyone else can either. And some are weapons MINUS the fissle material. Are you counting those as well?

Either way knowing how bad the control is in the former USSR...Do you think Iran, or NK would have a better retention rate than the US?

The real fear is that they get these weapons and give/sell/lose one to an OBL. I don't think NK will sell one, but they will threaten to do that unless we given them aid. Iran wants them to prevent invasion...a GREAT idea. However, I think they are more likely to "lose" one. And my fear is the lost weapon will be "found" by looking for the mushroom cloud.

"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334

[kallend 2,027]

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"The IIS estimates that 40kg of weapons-grade plutonium has been lost within the former USSR."

Sounds a wee bit light to me Bill, however Kallend and I had a chat about this last year I think, much of these losses are down to the way the stuff is actually accounted for, example in todays press here about 40kg missing from Sellafield in England...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4272691.stm.

Now then, is this method of accounting for radioactive material acceptable...not in my opinion.

"the big risk is that someone will use our own nuclear waste (or weapons!) against us."

You and I both know this is the most likely scenario, especially when the people building and deploying the device don't care about their own survivability. Problem is with this scenario, how do you mitigate against such an attack? If you think current measures are draconian, try living with a border lockdown. Its unworkable.

Problem with the "accounting error" theory is that the error always seems to be on the side of missing stuff. If these were true errors we would expect to find extra stuff just as often.

I'm a cynic; I reckon there really is missing Pu in the USA, UK and former USSR.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[nacmacfeegle 0]

I share your cynicism John.

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He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me. Thomas Jefferson

[gjhdiver 0]

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What do you think OBL would do if he had a nuke?

Probably use it, but then he and Al Qaeda are not a nation state, and therefore free from the usual checks and balances that statehood usually implies.

Even barking mad loons like Kim Jong Il understand the consequences of a nuclear exchange with another nuclear power. States like his and Iran aquire these weapons to use as baragining chips to secure more favorable treatment at the negotiating table. I personally can't see Iran for instance, developing a fisrt strike capablity with intention to use it against the US, as to do so would effectively mean the end of Iran as a nation state, and quite possibly as a location on a map. It's far more likely that they wish to aquire them as a hedge against being forced to endure the Pax Americana that this administration seems intent on pushing on the entire region.

As such too, it seems to be working. You have to remember that nation states will act in their own self interest, whereas free organizations like Al Qaeda, driven by idealogy are free not to. There's enough free nuclear material floating around on he black market that they don't need to get it from Iran, and the technology available to them is only enough to make a radiological weapon. Bad I agree, but not catastrophic.

[AndyMan 7]

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If these were true errors we would expect to find extra stuff just as often.

I suspect that happens all the time.

"40 KG of plutonium gone missing" makes headlines.

"40 KG of plutonium found exactly where they left it" does not.

_Am

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You put the fun in "funnel" - craichead.