China and Taiwan

[SkyDekker 1,465]

Well, China has now passed a law enabling mainland China to use "non-peacefull" means to prevent Taiwan from becoming fully independent.

secondly, Bush in his latest "coronation" speech indicated that the US would help and come to the aid of all countries to protect freedom and democracy around the world.

Think the US would ever go to war with China to aid Taiwan?

[nacmacfeegle 0]

"Think the US would ever go to war with China to aid Taiwan?"

Without SC support? Unlikely, and I don't mean 'Speaker's Corner'.

As part of a coalition? every likelihood, but not unilaterally.

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He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me. Thomas Jefferson

[justinb138 0]

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Without SC support? Unlikely, and I don't mean 'Speaker's Corner'.


South Carolina?

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[mcarchangel 0]

Actually the warplans for aiding Taiwan against China are pretty advanced. We have guarenteed Taiwan's independence since 1949. That guarentee is pretty much the only thing that has kept Taiwan from joining the nuclear club. Plus, let's face it, if we reniged on that promise when the the chips were down no one would ever trust us again. And for good reason. Since we finished breaking just about every treaty we signed with the Native Americans we've been pretty good about sticking to the ones we do agree to. If we think it's a bad idea we just don't join ie. Kyoto, the ICC, and the Land Mines treaty come to mind. China can attack Taiwan, but probably on her own Taiwan could prevent an invasion. With the help of the US and Japan, China would have no chance. They can kill Taiwan, but they cannot take it.

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"These are the old days, the bad days, the all-or-nothing days. They're back! There's no choice left, and I'm ready for war."

[SkyDekker 1,465]

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Actually the warplans for aiding Taiwan against China are pretty advanced. We have guarenteed Taiwan's independence since 1949. That guarentee is pretty much the only thing that has kept Taiwan from joining the nuclear club. Plus, let's face it, if we reniged on that promise when the the chips were down no one would ever trust us again. And for good reason. Since we finished breaking just about every treaty we signed with the Native Americans we've been pretty good about sticking to the ones we do agree to. If we think it's a bad idea we just don't join ie. Kyoto, the ICC, and the Land Mines treaty come to mind. China can attack Taiwan, but probably on her own Taiwan could prevent an invasion. With the help of the US and Japan, China would have no chance. They can kill Taiwan, but they cannot take it

OKay, let's say that is all true. Let's say China pretty much kills the entire population of Taiwan. do you think the US will (or should) continue to do business with China?

[mr2mk1g 10]

To defend Taiwan from China would require overwhelming sea power. Sure the US has that, but not against a modern adversary – not even one without a single ship.

Putting the kinds of assets such an operation would require in harms way is no longer a viable option. I’m not talking the political ramifications of losing 3000 souls in one go – merely the tactical considerations of a modern combined arms operation.

The surface to surface missile capability of a modern military has rendered the old power of the senior arm largely ineffective. It’s simply too easy to blow a trillion dollar warship out of the water with a 1/4 million dollar missile – like I said, you don’t even need to have your own navy.

At present, there simply isn’t a system available to protect the size of fleet an operation in the South China Seas would require. A fleet off the coast of China would be sitting ducks. Even with solely land based assets on both Japan and South Korea, I don’t see anyone being able to project the kind of power required to dislodge an occupation force from Taiwan.

[mcarchangel 0]

The killing of Taiwan would involve China using the missles and nukes that they ahve hamed at Taiwan. If that happened we would be in a nuclear war with China. One they know would go pretty badly for them. They are not the Soviet Union, or even Russia. It's called deterrance. It allows them to rattle their sabers, and even lose a conventional war, but knowing that if they go too far the outcome is unlikey to favor them. BTW we did the same thing in Europe with the Soviet Union from the 40s to '91.

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"These are the old days, the bad days, the all-or-nothing days. They're back! There's no choice left, and I'm ready for war."

[SkyDekker 1,465]

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The killing of Taiwan would involve China using the missles and nukes that they ahve hamed at Taiwan. If that happened we would be in a nuclear war with China. One they know would go pretty badly for them. They are not the Soviet Union, or even Russia. It's called deterrance. It allows them to rattle their sabers, and even lose a conventional war, but knowing that if they go too far the outcome is unlikey to favor them. BTW we did the same thing in Europe with the Soviet Union from the 40s to '91.

I think you'll find vastly different economies and people between China and the old USSR. On top of that, start looking at the dependence of the US economy on China.

[billvon 3,008]

>Plus, let's face it, if we reniged on that promise when the the chips
> were down no one would ever trust us again.

We've supported Saddam Hussein, the Contras, and the Mujahideen. Then five or ten years later they become our enemies. I don't think there are a lot of people who trust us much now, given our history.

>With the help of the US and Japan, China would have no chance.
> They can kill Taiwan, but they cannot take it.

I doubt that.

The reason we won the air war (the US and the UK) during WWII was not that we had better planes or better pilots. It was because for every fighter they shot down, we could build 5 more fighters and train 10 more pilots. Meanwhile we'd bomb their factories so they couldn't do the same. We had the numbers.

If China tries to take Taiwan they will succeed. It will cost them dearly, but for every ten thousand troops we kill they can send another 100,000. We could hit them with nuclear weapons - but they might well hit us back. And I think the US would not stomach the loss of Los Angeles and San Francisco in order to help out Taiwan.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

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If China tries to take Taiwan they will succeed. It will cost them dearly, but for every ten thousand troops we kill they can send another 100,000. We could hit them with nuclear weapons - but they might well hit us back. And I think the US would not stomach the loss of Los Angeles and San Francisco in order to help out Taiwan.

I agree and I think they will invade Taiwan within 10 years.

[Frenchy68 0]

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I agree and I think they will invade Taiwan within 10 years.

I greatly doubt that. I think China is using its new "law" to put pressure on Taiwan. It is NOT in China's interest right now to get into a war, especially one that isolate China from the rest of the international community.
Within 10 years, Taiwan will probably be another autonomus province of the PRC, but not because of military action. IMO.

"For once you have tasted Absinthe you will walk the earth with your eyes turned towards the gutter, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

[mcarchangel 0]

Who said anything about a surface fleet? All that is required for Taiwan to remain independant is to destroy any Chinese ground forces attempting invasion. They can only go in two ways, by air or by sea. Both can be blocked without use of surface forces. And for that matter the idea of calling the Chinese military modern, now or twenty years from now is ludicrus in the extreme. The Chinese are at least two full generational cycles behind us in weapons employment and use. Also the analogy with Germany in WW2 is a bad one. The training and technology there was balanced generally in favor of the Germans. At least till the end when training slipped. The Chinese would be lucky to get one of our planes for every dozen they lost. Their troops crossing the strait would be much worse off. And we were willing to put up Detroit for possible destruction to save Birmingham before, I'm not so sure we would shrink away from the table today.

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"These are the old days, the bad days, the all-or-nothing days. They're back! There's no choice left, and I'm ready for war."

[billvon 3,008]

>All that is required for Taiwan to remain independant is to destroy any
> Chinese ground forces attempting invasion.

Consider the logistics in stopping a million men invading by sea. Sure, you can sink ten troop carriers - but the 11th one might just slip by. Repeat that enough times and you have an invading force of 100,000.

And even if you could kill off 90% of that million man invasion, you'd still have more than half the Chinese army sitting in China in case they try to retaliate.

>Also the analogy with Germany in WW2 is a bad one. The training and
> technology there was balanced generally in favor of the Germans. At least
>till the end when training slipped. The Chinese would be lucky to get
>one of our planes for every dozen they lost.

That's exactly right. And if they can build 20 piece of shit planes for every one super high tech fighter we build, they will still win. We have the technology and the training; they have the numbers - and now they have the manufacturing base.

>Their troops crossing the strait would be much worse off. And we were
> willing to put up Detroit for possible destruction to save Birmingham
> before, I'm not so sure we would shrink away from the table today.

Look at how losing 3000 americans on 9/11 paralyzed the country and crippled our economy. Now imagine losing five million americans and all the electronics west of the Rockies. It would take us decades to recover from the resulting depression.

[TheAnvil 0]

I think the economic ties that have been growing between the two nations over the past several years will deter any invasion attempt. All of this recent activity has been political posturing. There was an article on that in THE ECONOMIST a few weeks ago. Quite interesting.

Vinny the Anvil
Post Traumatic Didn't Make The Lakers Syndrome is REAL
JACKASS POWER!!!!!!

[mcarchangel 0]

Two things about the overwhelming size and power of the Chinese Army. One, it isn't really real. The troop and training quality is unbelivably low compared to even European standards. Two, we're in the US and so we're used to having relatively secure borders. That's not the case for China. They are ringed by enemies and cannot just strip those borders to regain one wayward province. Also once you get those troops over to Taiwan they will have to be resupplied as they fight the Taiwanese ground forces, probably backed by Marines and some American Army units. All under hugely unfriendly skies for the Chinese. Not happening.

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"These are the old days, the bad days, the all-or-nothing days. They're back! There's no choice left, and I'm ready for war."

[SkyDekker 1,465]

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I think the economic ties that have been growing between the two nations over the past several years will deter any invasion attempt. All of this recent activity has been political posturing. There was an article on that in THE ECONOMIST a few weeks ago. Quite interesting.

Using the same thought process I come to a different conclusion. Taiwan will walk further down the path of independence and will declare independence within 10 years. China will react to it, by invading Taiwan to protect its face and economic interests. There is nobody who will be able to stop them at that point. The Western world will then have two options. Either put in place economic sanctions, or just grin and bare it. Since by that time Western Economies will even more rely on China for its manufacturing base by that time and I think you'll find not many countries will impose sanctions.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

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Two things about the overwhelming size and power of the Chinese Army. One, it isn't really real. The troop and training quality is unbelivably low compared to even European standards. Two, we're in the US and so we're used to having relatively secure borders. That's not the case for China. They are ringed by enemies and cannot just strip those borders to regain one wayward province. Also once you get those troops over to Taiwan they will have to be resupplied as they fight the Taiwanese ground forces, probably backed by Marines and some American Army units. All under hugely unfriendly skies for the Chinese. Not happening.

That is assuming the US is willing to live without chinese goods being shipped to sustain its discount economy. Contrary to popular believe many of those products in Target, Walmart and Kmart are not made in the US.

[Frenchy68 0]

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I think the economic ties that have been growing between the two nations over the past several years will deter any invasion attempt. All of this recent activity has been political posturing. There was an article on that in THE ECONOMIST a few weeks ago. Quite interesting.

I definitely concur with what you wrote. Taiwanese nationals benefit from a special status in China, which allow them to have businesses in mainland China while residing in Taiwan (which is an awefully hard thing to do for anyone outside of Taiwan). There are 10s of thousands of Taiwanese doing so. And that's only at the micro-level. It's in neither country's interest to take to the military level.

"For once you have tasted Absinthe you will walk the earth with your eyes turned towards the gutter, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

[rhino 0]

I'd bet 50,000 well armed Marines and Army Soldiers could mow through 1,000,000 China men in a heart beat.

It's all about TARGET ACQUISITION.

Air power helps too You know.. Dem Air Force boys..

[mcarchangel 0]

Absolutely, if you go to Walmart and take away everything made in China I would bet 50-60% of the stuff in the store goes away. We and China have entered into a symbiotic relationship economically that is probably a Really Bad Idea. Nevertheless it is the world we live in. But they would be just as bad off, probably slightly worse if the trade were cut off. Countries generally act in their self intrest. That's why I think a war is unlikly, especially if we remain behind Taiwan.

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"These are the old days, the bad days, the all-or-nothing days. They're back! There's no choice left, and I'm ready for war."

[christelsabine 1]

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I'd bet 50,000 well armed Marines and Army Soldiers could mow through 1,000,000 China men in a heart beat.

It's all about TARGET ACQUISITION.

Air power helps too You know.. Dem Air Force boys..

Sounds nice. And fully workable within shortest time. As history shows.

BTW.... ever spent any idea on native economy? Who's gonna pay the mowers?

Bwahahaha

dudeist skydiver # 3105

[billvon 3,008]

> I'd bet 50,000 well armed Marines and Army Soldiers could mow
>through 1,000,000 China men in a heart beat.

Dunno about that. Some completely untrained guerillas in Iraq have taken out 1500 of our military so far. And those guerillas don't have the weapons of a nuclear power backing them up.

But let's say you're right, and any given US soldier could take out 20 chinese troops. We'd still lose. They have the numbers and the home field advantage.

[TheAnvil 0]

And what, exactly, do you think makes invading Taiwan in the economic interests of China?

Vinny the Anvil
Post Traumatic Didn't Make The Lakers Syndrome is REAL
JACKASS POWER!!!!!!

[SkyDekker 1,465]

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And what, exactly, do you think makes invading Taiwan in the economic interests of China?

after taiwan declares independence, do you really think it won't readdress the economical ties in place?

[gjhdiver 0]

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I'd bet 50,000 well armed Marines and Army Soldiers could mow through 1,000,000 China men in a heart beat.

It's all about TARGET ACQUISITION.

Air power helps too You know.. Dem Air Force boys..

If their performance in Iraq is anything to go by, I sincerley doubt it.