OIL and an article about the end...

[leroydb 0]

http://itechzone.blogspot.com/

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Last Post?
“The oil-drilling rig count over the last 12 years has reached bottom. This is not because of low oil price. The oil companies are not going to keep rigs employed to drill dry holes. They know it but are unable ... to admit it. The great merger mania is nothing more than a scaling down of a dying industry in recognition that 90% of global conventional oil has already been found.” — Goldman Sachs, Energy Weekly, August 11, 1999

We all know that gas is expensive right now. What many of us don't realize is that it is not coming down in price again. There are two reasons for this: something called "peak oil production," which most experts say was reached around the year 2000 (it varies a little from oil-producing country to oil-producing country), and scarcity.

What has happened now that so many countries are industrialized, the requirement for energy has reached a point which has "maxed" out refinery capability, and since oil is becoming more and more " scarce," there is no incentive for the oil companies to increase refinery capacity. So the first part of the problem is demand has outstripped supply.

The second part of the problem is that the earth is running out of oil - not immediately, but in this century. However, we have already reached the point where demand outstripping supply has caused prices to begin spiraling. The competition for what oil can be produced is heating up, which will drive prices higher and higher.

The issue is not one of "running out" so much as it is not having enough to keep our economies running. In this regard, the ramifications of peak oil production for our civilization are similar to the ramifications of dehydration for the human body. The human body is 70 percent water. The body of a 200 pound man thus holds 140 pounds of water. Because water is so crucial to everything the human body does, the man doesn't need to lose all 140 pounds of water weight before collapsing due to dehydration. A loss of as little as 10-15 pounds of water may be enough to kill him.

In a similar sense, an oil-based economy such as ours doesn't have to deplete its entire reserves of oil before it begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10-15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty overnight.

There will come a point very quickly where food and water cannot be distributed in a profitable manner, or the prices will be driven so high we can't pay for them and crops will rot in the field, and water will remain where it is instead of being piped to your home. Medication distribution and production will cease as the cost exceeds the possible. Hospitals will run out of supplies. Police who do remain on duty will be overwhelmed as people turn to looting and murder for survival. Governments, financial institutions, distribution systems, etc., will all fail, either through scarcity or panic or both.

It would take an estimated 25-50 years to create the kind, quality and quantity of alternatives necessary to replace the literally thousands of ways we use oil at present, even if the technology existed. But we have maybe 3-5 years. It would take more money than there is to retrofit every economy to use alternatives, even if we had them. It would take more oil than there is to produce alternative energy sources, such as solar, nuclear, wind, biodiesel - all of these endevours require a source of energy up front. (I suppose that if all the governments of the world had started working this problem in 1900 instead of spending the century fighting wars, this could have been planned for and worked around, but it is "water over the dam" at this point).

Why do I tell you this? Not because there is something you can do about it - there really isn't. I suppose a really wealthy person could create a hideaway and stockpile it with enough goods to survive for the rest of his life, but for most of us who live paycheck to paycheck, in a very short time, we will be living like the third world, walking to a source of water each morning (if there is one), eating what lies on the ground (if anything), wearing whatever scrap of material we can put our hands on, most likely dieing in a short period of time.

The reason I even bring up the subject now is to raise the moral, ethical and spiritual questions that will need to be faced. What will my response be? There will be disease and starvation similar to the poorest of the poor that Mother Teresa ministered to on the streets of Calcutta. There will be murder as people steal other's supplies. Food will be in short supply or non-existent. Water will be in short supply or nonexistent. "What will be my reaction?" I ask myself.

There will be few alternatives, but one can imagine that one might be tempted at this point to commit suicide. How strong is my commitment to the sanctity of life, even my own? Will I kill to lengthen the days of my own miserable earthly existence? Or will I help others until I have no strength left, knowing that to be absent from the body is to be present with the Lord?

Now I cannot predict the day this will begin. Perhaps it has begun already. From my study of the available information, it appears that we have already reached peak production capability, production capability will not be increased because it is not cost-effective because of scarcity, there is more demand than supply, and so the cost is already spiraling, and will spiral much faster "soon." How soon? I don't know. Could be tomorrow. Could be next year. But not long.

I can't tell you what your reaction should be to this information. I don't like conveying it, that's for sure. Perhaps you should first do your own research. Those with access to the internet can start by searching for terms like "oil scarcity" and "peak oil production," for example.

For me, I am going to try to just live my remaining years normally until that is no longer possible. I am looking forward to my more sedintary years with my dear wife and our church. I do plan to study my scripture and pray to ensure my resolve to "do the right thing" when the circumstances arise. We should always be ready for these kinds of things anyhow, I suppose.

We don't ever know what tomorrow holds, but we do know who holds tomorrow.

Leroy


..I knew I was an unwanted baby when I saw my bath toys were a toaster and a radio...

[DJL 235]

A little too preach-y but I wonder how many people REALLY understand that the tank is running dry.

"I encourage all awesome dangerous behavior." - Jeffro Fincher

[DrunkMonkey 0]

Great. We're all fucked. Let me get my gun and blow my fucking brains out...

Seriously, WTF are we to say to stuff like this? There's not a fucking thing we can do, so why don't we all just eat a bullet and spare ourselves the horrors after the crash?

[billvon 3,070]

>WTF are we to say to stuff like this? There's not a fucking thing we can do . . .

An appropriate response would be to say that there is, of course, something we can do about it. The only question that remains is - do we want to do it?

[DrunkMonkey 0]

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>WTF are we to say to stuff like this? There's not a fucking thing we can do . . .

An appropriate response would be to say that there is, of course, something we can do about it. The only question that remains is - do we want to do it?

And that would be???

[BRYANGOESBOOM 0]

go to church according to the article

Not only will you look better, feel better, and fuck better; you'll have significantly increased your life expectancy. --Douva

[billvon 3,070]

>And that would be???

Just the first 10 things that come to mind are:

-increased incentives for solar-PV
-incentives for biodiesel and alcohol production
-zoning changes to encourage greywater and rainwater irrigation systems
-gradual CAFE increases
-fuel diversity tax incentives
-alternative power buyback programs
-dual mode hybrid development
-HTGR development and commercialization
-solar DHW tax incentives
-ground loop heat exchanger incentives
-refinery hydrogen reclamation
-tar sand extraction

oops, that was 12. But you get the idea. We're only helpess if we decide to be helpless.

[DJL 235]

Unfortunately, even the educated masses are only going to follow economic feasibility. Nothing will change and then people will be mad at the government for not doing something.

I design HVAC in buildings and am exasperated with how little developers care about their system's efficiency. It's all first cost and then they sell it to the owner.

"I encourage all awesome dangerous behavior." - Jeffro Fincher

[DrunkMonkey 0]

Fuck's sake...I cannot afford a Prius or an Insight. I have no political clout. I am only hoping to live a decent life.

I'd get an electric car and power it off a nuclear reactor, but they're all pieces of shit.

What's the point? If we're all fucked, why don't we all just commit mass suicide?

[MWGemini 0]

Just another case of the facts being blown out of proportion. The amount of oil in the world is finite, but more than sufficient to sustain us through our lifetimes. That is not to say that there is not a problem, because there is, but it is certainly nowhere near as bad as the writer (an extremist judging by his other blog entries) claims.

There's a thing called common sense. Some people seem to lack it. Others just like making sensational claims so that they can be the center of attention. Which category do you think this person falls into?

Mike

[SpeedRacer 1]

I agree with billvon. There's stuff we can do RIGHT NOW.

That article is yet another in a series of Gloom & Doom, We're All Gonna Die predictions I have been hearing all my life about one topic or another. There's always a good reason to believe that everything is just all gonna go to hell, and its inevitable.

The Gloomsters always turn out to be wrong, but that doesn't stop them from trying.

I don't object to a Gloomster pointing out a very real problem, but I do object to the whole pessimistic, defeatist attitude. Especially when history shows that people are capable of REACTING to problems & changing things to adapt to them.

Speed Racer
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[billvon 3,070]

>Unfortunately, even the educated masses are only going to follow
>economic feasibility.

Hence the need for economic incentives. You have to figure out a way to include the true cost, rather than just the up-front cost, in the price of appliances/vehicles/HVAC systems etc.

[billvon 3,070]

>Fuck's sake...I cannot afford a Prius or an Insight. I have no
>political clout. I am only hoping to live a decent life.

Rebuildable wrecked Insight - $500 on Ebay
Working Prius, needs body work - $1900 on Ebay

You can do it if you want. If you don't want to, no problem.

>I'd get an electric car and power it off a nuclear reactor, but they're
>all pieces of shit.

Nuclear reactors or electric cars?

>What's the point? If we're all fucked, why don't we all just commit
>mass suicide?

I hear there are cults that are into that sort of thing. It's just not my bag, baby.

[DrunkMonkey 0]

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Rebuildable wrecked Insight - $500 on Ebay

"Rebuildable?" You want to take a chance on a car that's been in a frontal collision?

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Working Prius, needs body work - $1900 on Ebay

That's just what the bid is up to-reserve--I'd guess at least $11k.

I don't have the money to save the fucking world. Let the affluent CEOs save the world. They have the resources, they're just greedy.

[billvon 3,070]

>"Rebuildable?" You want to take a chance on a car that's been in a frontal collision?

I bought one new, so I didn't take the chance. But you can if money is an issue. Or you can just complain about the problem and hope someone else solves it. It's a very popular approach here in the US.

[DrunkMonkey 0]

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I bought one new, so I didn't take the chance. .

Great, Daddy Warbucks. We're not all rich engineers who can afford to buy new. I've never owned a new car. So how's it us poor folk are ruining the world?

Point the finger at the rich assholes flying private jets, and driving Hummers, Escalades, and Ford Excursions.

[allrightscud 0]

There's plenty oil. Its just not in the same old places as we looked before. We've found the easy to get stuff, we just have to try a little harder to get what we need. New technology is allowing us to produce from previously un economical reservoirs using deep water technology, floating production vessels, more efficient well recovery. Places like Russia and West Africa are just opening up and no one has a real handle on how much is actually there but its a lot estimates in the industry reckon its more than we've taken to date.

I also noted that the article said that peak production would come around the year 2000. That tell me that this article is way out of date.

Our kids won't see the end of oil and neither will their kids. Lets not get Mad Max'd here. I don't fancy going Beyond The Thunder Dome.

As for the price of oil. If you look at the price increase over the last 30 years its is by no means over priced compared to the increase in property, cars, food or any other inflation affected item over the same period. In fact, I would say that its a long over due price adjustment.

Too much is never enough!

All right scud?

[Amazon 7]

OMG.. we are all going to die





Well except for the immortals..

I did not expect to get ouyt of this life alive anyway

[billvon 3,070]

>We're not all rich engineers who can afford to buy new. I've never
>owned a new car.

So - $1900 will get you a working (but banged up) car that gets 50mpg.

[billvon 3,070]

>There's plenty oil. Its just not in the same old places as we looked
>before. We've found the easy to get stuff . . .

That's exactly right. We're not running out of oil, we're just running out of cheap oil. Heck, if we had to, we could synthesize everything in a barrel of oil from CO2, water and sulfur. Of course it would cost $2000 a barrel.

The issue is that the end of cheap oil may hit us pretty hard. We're talking about way over $100 a barrel. The problem isn't just that we're running out of cheap oil - the problem is that we are both running out of cheap oil and increasing our demand exponentially. That sets the stage for a pretty massive crash.

So what can we do? We have to reverse the demand trend. If we ramp down demand at the same rate cheap oil runs out, then we don't see any price increase. Heck, if we can just level it out, then the price increase will be that much steep. But the way we're going now - using exponentially more and more of a resource that's about to get very scarce - is a recipie for a recession of 1929 magnitudes.

>Our kids won't see the end of oil and neither will their kids. Lets not
>get Mad Max'd here. I don't fancy going Beyond The Thunder Dome.

Keep in mind that the people in the Mad Max movies _had_ oil - they just didn't have enough to drive all their massive vehicles. In any case the battles over oil won't happen in the outback, they will happen in China, and in Venezuela, and in Russia. If the choice is collapse of our economy or a war for oil, which choice do you think this president will take? How about the next one?

[DrunkMonkey 0]

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>We're not all rich engineers who can afford to buy new. I've never
>owned a new car.

So - $1900 will get you a working (but banged up) car that gets 50mpg.

Are you even checking the link? There's NO ebay Prius for $1900. That was probably the second of 27 bids...

By the way, thx for ignoring the rest of my post.

[billvon 3,070]

>Are you even checking the link? There's NO ebay Prius for $1900.
>That was probably the second of 27 bids...

OK, whatever. I'll give you the link and you'll say "but that was in a collision, it might have problems." You can surely come up with more reasons not to do it than I can for reasons to do it. But that's fine; do whatever you want for whatever reason you want to do it.

[ChasingBlueSky 0]

Geo Metro. 1 litre, 3 cylinder 50mpg. Very cheap used.

_________________________________________
you can burn the land and boil the sea, but you can't take the sky from me....
I WILL fly again.....

[kallend 2,106]

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I bought one new, so I didn't take the chance. .

Great, Daddy Warbucks. We're not all rich engineers who can afford to buy new. I've never owned a new car. So how's it us poor folk are ruining the world?

IIRC, you got a free college education courtesy of ROTC. In time you'll be making money.

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Point the finger at the rich assholes flying private jets, and driving Hummers, Escalades, and Ford Excursions.

Yes! They should be paying more taxes!

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[penniless 0]

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Geo Metro. 1 litre, 3 cylinder 50mpg. Very cheap used.

I had one of those. Very difficult to transport a Marimba in it. Kept having to borrow my Dad's wagon.