Approval rating going down for Bush

[Johnnyskydive 0]

Demographic's....hmm. I am pretty sure most polls are done the same. Not all....but most.

Here are a few #'s from an internal poll my firm did:

"If the Congressional elections were held today, which party's candidate would you most likely vote for?"

Republican 40
Democrat 54
Not sure 6

"Do you approve/disapprove of the way President Bush is currently handling our national security?"

Approve 42%
Disapprove 49%
Neither/unsure 9%

I was, in fact, surprised by those #'s. Not so much the Republican Party #'s....but the # who choose Democrat. I'd have figured the #'s for "not sure" would have been much higher.

The way we do our polls.....
Have a computer bank with 10's of thousands of phone numbers. We get a computer generated list of around 5000 phone numbers....sometimes less. We usually aim to get around 1000 responses.....most hang up or say no.

Have people who are pretty much telemarketers call the numbers and ask the questions they have on the computer in front of them. When we get close to our target # of answers....we wrap it up. For the poll above we got the %'s from 1105 responses.

I know Gallup does their polls this way, as I assume most firms do. Demographic's could come into play....but unlikely as the computer pretty much just selects the #'s at random. The bank comes from every congressional district in the U.S.

John

[SkyDekker 1,465]

Interesting....Why do you think Clinton was the worst US president? naturally you are more than welcome to answer this in the other thread as well.

[billvon 3,006]

>Now, did you go into the "demographics" of these polls?

Nope. There were 33 poll results on that page, conducted by groups from FOX news to local colleges to CNN to NPR. Covers a pretty wide demographic. They all agree. So you can't really claim that it's a demographic issue. (Well, I suppose you could try.)

http://www.pollingreport.com/2006.htm

[pop 0]

Quote

catastrophic flood of panic -- which of course is what started this whole thing in the first place.

It started way before that,

7 ounce wonders, music and dogs that are not into beer

[ChasingBlueSky 0]

Quote

Quote

approval rating down to 36 percent

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/03/13/bush.poll/index.html

It's good to see more and more Americans coming to their senses. I've been saying from day one that a man who has failed just about every business he has ever touched, should not be allowed to lay his hands on this country. He is a screw up.

I do appreciate the fact that as an American citizen I at least have the right to say that. That wouldn't fly far back when I was living in the USSR.

Pretty sure it won't be better with the next President either. There is something wrong when someone wants to be President that bad.

The good politicians that look out for the people they represent are far and few between. Those in DC play too many games and it's more about their perceived reputation than doing what is needed.

_________________________________________
you can burn the land and boil the sea, but you can't take the sky from me....
I WILL fly again.....

[ChasingBlueSky 0]

Quote

Have people who are pretty much telemarketers call the numbers and ask the questions they have on the computer in front of them. When we get close to our target # of answers....we wrap it up. For the poll above we got the %'s from 1105 responses.

I have a hard time believing that a sample of 1105 point of views is a large enough sample to know how a few million people feel.

_________________________________________
you can burn the land and boil the sea, but you can't take the sky from me....
I WILL fly again.....

[billvon 3,006]

>I have a hard time believing that a sample of 1105 point of views is
>a large enough sample to know how a few million people feel.

Statistics. During a statistics class in college we did an analysis, and discovered that you could poll fewer than 100 people and discover with 99% certainty who would win the popular vote for president. The gotcha is that everyone you pick has to respond and respond honestly, which is very hard to do in a poll.

[kallend 2,027]

Quote

>I have a hard time believing that a sample of 1105 point of views is
>a large enough sample to know how a few million people feel.

Statistics. During a statistics class in college we did an analysis, and discovered that you could poll fewer than 100 people and discover with 99% certainty who would win the popular vote for president. The gotcha is that everyone you pick has to respond and respond honestly, which is very hard to do in a poll.

An additional caveat is that the sample has to be representative of the population.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[billvon 3,006]

>An additional caveat is that the sample has to be representative of the population.

Absolutely. It has to be truly random, which is NOT the same as the first 100 people who respond to an internet poll.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

you mena my poll isn't scientific...damn I had already approached all the newspapers.....

another bubble burst.....

[ChasingBlueSky 0]

Quote

>I have a hard time believing that a sample of 1105 point of views is
>a large enough sample to know how a few million people feel.

Statistics. During a statistics class in college we did an analysis, and discovered that you could poll fewer than 100 people and discover with 99% certainty who would win the popular vote for president. The gotcha is that everyone you pick has to respond and respond honestly, which is very hard to do in a poll.

I took stats as well, and in theory I understand the sampling size. In practice I don't honestly beleive that such a small sample works out. I saw this in practice when it came to 'guessing' our demographics, ratings and marketing rates while in radio. There is to much BS and spin on the way they use the sampling that makes it hard to believe.

_________________________________________
you can burn the land and boil the sea, but you can't take the sky from me....
I WILL fly again.....

[ypelchat 0]

Quote

Quote

approval rating down to 36 percent

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/03/13/bush.poll/index.html

It's good to see more and more Americans coming to their senses. I've been saying from day one that a man who has failed just about every business he has ever touched, should not be allowed to lay his hands on this country. He is a screw up.

I do appreciate the fact that as an American citizen I at least have the right to say that. That wouldn't fly far back when I was living in the USSR.

"I think he knows what Rome is. Rome is the mob. Conjure magic for them and they'll be distracted. Take away their freedom and still they'll roar. The beating heart of Rome is not the marble of the senate, it's the sand of the coliseum. He'll bring them death - and they will love him for it. "


So true.....

Yves.

[pop 0]

Whose quote is this?

7 ounce wonders, music and dogs that are not into beer

[ypelchat 0]

Gracchus, in the movie Gladiator.

Yves.

[pop 0]

Aah yes....a classic!! Thanks

7 ounce wonders, music and dogs that are not into beer

[Johnnyskydive 0]

[rhys 0]

Quote

Republican 39
Democrat 55
Unsure 7

republicans and democrats are both to the right of neutral! both capitalist fuckwits too.
i can't believe a country of so much population and power only has the choice of two major partys, you need a referendum to pass a MMP system to balance the odds a little, with minority groups as well as those redneck oil tycoons.

is it gonna happen?





Dreaming

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[mnealtx 0]

A MMP system would be what?

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[rhys 0]

I think it stands for mixed member proportion.

but it means when an election is counted each party gets the seats they won and the govornment is formed by more than one political party. yes the caucus gets roudy but at least poor/selfish decisions aren't made without scrutiny.

for instance if an election was 45%rep-55%dem then those proportions would make up the govornment. It's fair.

We voted it in here in New Zealand a number of years ago and it seems to work, it is most definately not perfect but name a system that is?

it allows smaller parties to emerge and have a 'chance' at making positive change to what they feel is nessecary. FFP (first past the post) elections are unfair and do not reflect what the 'whole' population wants. especially when the election is close(which it usually is)!

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[mnealtx 0]

Thanks for the info - appreciate it!

The U.S. government is not set up that way, however. Each Congressional district votes for it's Representatives separately, and each state votes for it's Senators separately.

There is no restriction as to political parties in principle - you could run as a "My Pet Goat" party candidate and take a Congressional seat if you won enough votes.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[Samurai136 0]

Quote

for instance if an election was 45%rep-55%dem then those proportions would make up the govornment. It's fair

Wrong.

It is unfair. Here's why. In an MMP essentially every opinion has a representitive vote in parliment/ congress. Initially this seems great. I am Black. I am Gay. I am a minority opinion. (playing devils advocate here) I have my voice in government.

In a MMP I have a designated representitve in government. Great! My opinion is represented as a minority. Wrong.

You opinion is completely undercut. The majority will always rule. Yes, you have your designated voice but it will always be out voted. The success of the American system is that for any one candidate, they must appeal to the minority vote to win the majority (popular) vote in their district.

Ultimately any random voter is more likely to have their opinion represented in government because the elected politician must be politically closer to the center than an extreme partizan politican.

"Buttons aren't toys." - Trillian
Ken

[rhys 0]

When the votes are close then coalitions are made with the minority partys and give them the power to make change.

so instead of having to compete with the big guys, as a smaller party, smaller partys can concentrate on the other smaller sometimes extremist partys and make themselves more popular than them. When the votes are counted a coalition is made with the strongest minority party to keep the Large party in power(if they can see eye to eye that is) then that smaller partys members become part of the working govornment and get to make the positive changes they have in thier policies! so essentially the strongest of the smaller parties gets to decide what the next govornment will be in a close election.

FFP govornments get away with more dodgy shit because nobody with a conflict of interest is present at such decisions. MMP sheds light onto the dodgy goings on and therefore creates a fairer govornment.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[akarunway 1]

"living in the USSR" "You don't know lucky you are." I just couldn't resist. Now that song will be stuck in my head all day

I hold it true, whate'er befall;
I feel it, when I sorrow most;
'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all.

[billvon 3,006]

>living in the USSR

Speaking of the USSR . . .
Stolen from the Dream of the Blue Turtles:

In Israel and America, there's a growing feeling of hysteria
Conditioned to respond to all the threats
In the rhetorical speeches of the insurgents
Now Bin Laden says he will destroy you
I don't subscribe to this point of view
It's such an ignorant thing to do
If Iraqis love their children too

How can they save their little boys from Bush Junior's deadly toys
There is no monopoly of common sense
On either side of the political fence
We share the same biology
Regardless of ideology
Believe me when I say to you
I hope Iraqis love their children too

There is no historical precedent
To put the words in the mouth of the President
There's no such thing as a winnable war
It's a lie that we don't believe anymore
Mr. Rumsfeld says he will protect you
I don't subscribe to this point of view
Believe me when I say to you
I hope Iraqis love their children too

We share the same biology
Regardless of ideology
What might save us, me and you
Is that Iraqis love their children too

[rhys 0]

Applause everybody,

clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap

Nice one Bill. This poem explains my feelings towards the whole debarcle exactly.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix