brenthutch 441 #2026 August 2, 2020 25 minutes ago, JoeWeber said: Just so I know how you will score the season, will it be decided by the number of named storms, the total intensity of all storms or the total dollar amount of destruction? NOAA predicted 6-10 Hurricanes with 3-6 major Hurricanes. We’ll go with that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JoeWeber 2,720 #2027 August 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, brenthutch said: NOAA predicted 6-10 Hurricanes with 3-6 major Hurricanes. We’ll go with that. Any other details, for example would a named Hurricane that dissipated at sea count? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 441 #2028 August 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, JoeWeber said: Any other details, for example would a named Hurricane that dissipated at sea count? A hurricane is a hurricane. Named storms and dollars of damage are meaningless metrics. BTW what do you think of ZERO typhoons in July and the lack of a trend in Atlantic hurricanes? It seems to run counter to the CAGW narrative. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JoeWeber 2,720 #2029 August 2, 2020 27 minutes ago, brenthutch said: A hurricane is a hurricane. Named storms and dollars of damage are meaningless metrics. BTW what do you think of ZERO typhoons in July and the lack of a trend in Atlantic hurricanes? It seems to run counter to the CAGW narrative. Seems is the operative word. Warming seas increase the probability of Atlantic Hurricanes. That probability by NOAA, I think, was for a 60% chance of more hurricanes, a 30% chance of a normal season and a 10% chance of fewer hurricanes. But other factors can offset or reduce the probability. For example, Saharan dust cover reflects the suns energy and temporarily reduces sea surface temperatures, thus reducing the probability of hurricane formation. Earlier this season, just as hurricane season was getting an early start, there was significant and thick SAL coverage in lower latitudes for a period of time. It happens but I'm not sure if it's predictable or included in the NOAA model. In any case it's not like NOAA predicted a 100% chance of more hurricanes. They know better, I'm thinking. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 441 #2030 August 2, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, JoeWeber said: Seems is the operative word. Warming seas increase the probability of Atlantic Hurricanes. That probability by NOAA, I think, was for a 60% chance of more hurricanes, a 30% chance of a normal season and a 10% chance of fewer hurricanes. But other factors can offset or reduce the probability. For example, Saharan dust cover reflects the suns energy and temporarily reduces sea surface temperatures, thus reducing the probability of hurricane formation. Earlier this season, just as hurricane season was getting an early start, there was significant and thick SAL coverage in lower latitudes for a period of time. It happens but I'm not sure if it's predictable or included in the NOAA model. In any case it's not like NOAA predicted a 100% chance of more hurricanes. They know better, I'm thinking. What about the lack of activity in the pacific? Not to mention no discernible trend in Atlantic hurricanes since record keeping began. Edited August 2, 2020 by brenthutch Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JoeWeber 2,720 #2031 August 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, brenthutch said: What about the lack of activity in the pacific? Not to mention no discernible trend in Atlantic hurricanes since record keeping began. I'm not familiar with the factors, besides sea surface temperatures and bad luck, that determine the numbers and intensities of typhoons in the pacific. For the permanent record, I'm not claiming I know anymore that just a little about Atlantic hurricanes most of which was learned from dodging them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gowlerk 2,190 #2032 August 2, 2020 2 hours ago, JoeWeber said: Just so I know how you will score the season, will it be decided by the number of named storms, the total intensity of all storms or the total dollar amount of destruction? He will be deciding which data to cherry pick as the cherries ripen, as usual. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 441 #2033 August 2, 2020 43 minutes ago, gowlerk said: He will be deciding which data to cherry pick as the cherries ripen, as usual. The # was picked by NOAA, not me. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JoeWeber 2,720 #2034 August 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, brenthutch said: The # was picked by NOAA, not me. And the probability number they picked was 60%, not 70, 80, 90 or 100%. It's climate, which is a little bit like roulette, not like making pancake batter for your kids where you know how many pancakes you'll get before the first ladle. That's why when you say 600, 700 or 800PPM Carbon is salubrious and a fine price to pay on the way to fusion power in 2060 eyes roll. The atmosphere is not a recipe. Predictions can falter and awful failure can easily follow success. Sort of like swooping as I think about it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 441 #2035 August 2, 2020 (edited) They DID predict a 90% chance of an average or above average hurricane season. (the average is six hurricanes and three major hurricanes) Edited August 2, 2020 by brenthutch Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JoeWeber 2,720 #2036 August 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, brenthutch said: They DID predict a 90% chance of an average or above average hurricane season. (the average is six hurricanes and three major hurricanes) So I wrote previously. 60% + 30% = 90% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 441 #2037 August 6, 2020 Updated prediction: ten hurricanes with five major ones https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-05-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-august-forecast Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CygnusX-1 43 #2038 August 6, 2020 2 hours ago, brenthutch said: Updated prediction: ten hurricanes with five major ones https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-05-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-august-forecast Too bad you already picked a minimum of 6 hurricanes with 3 major in post 2030. We hit that number and you will concede that climate change is happening, right? On 8/2/2020 at 9:53 AM, brenthutch said: NOAA predicted 6-10 Hurricanes with 3-6 major Hurricanes. We’ll go with that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JerryBaumchen 1,354 #2039 August 6, 2020 4 hours ago, brenthutch said: Updated prediction: ten hurricanes with five major ones https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-05-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-august-forecast Hi Brent, Wasn't it just last week that you were crowing about how there were so few hurricanes that it was proof that global warming was a hoax? You're as bad as Trump. Well, in your favor, I doubt that you would say that we have 'beautiful hurricanes, the best hurricanes.' Jerry Baumchen Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 441 #2040 August 7, 2020 9 hours ago, CygnusX-1 said: Too bad you already picked a minimum of 6 hurricanes with 3 major in post 2030. We hit that number and you will concede that climate change is happening, right? 9 hours ago, CygnusX-1 said: Too bad you already picked a minimum of 6 hurricanes with 3 major in post 2030. We hit that number and you will concede that climate change is happening, right? No, I said we would go with NOAA’s prediction, and NOAA’s prediction changed. I am just staying consistent. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 441 #2041 August 7, 2020 7 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said: Hi Brent, Wasn't it just last week that you were crowing about how there were so few hurricanes that it was proof that global warming was a hoax? You're as bad as Trump. Well, in your favor, I doubt that you would say that we have 'beautiful hurricanes, the best hurricanes.' Jerry Baumchen It is ironic that on the same day NOAA increases their hurricane forecast, the Atlantic has ZERO disturbances with hurricane potential. (Obviously that can change going forward) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wmw999 2,439 #2044 August 8, 2020 I don’t see any increase in State College Wendy P. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JoeWeber 2,720 #2045 August 8, 2020 1 hour ago, kallend said: John, If the graph isn't fake news, then the NOAA Logo is getting significantly colder over time. So what's your point? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 441 #2046 August 8, 2020 11 hours ago, kallend said: I’m glad you pointed this out. CAGW theory says we should have more hurricanes as temperatures rise, and as NOAA has illustrated, we have both an increase in temperature and no trend in hurricanes. According to scientific principle this would invalidate this portion of CAGW theory. Apply this sober analysis across the board and one is left with an irrational, blubbering puddle of emotion and not a rational theory. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turtlespeed 219 #2047 August 8, 2020 4 hours ago, brenthutch said: I’m glad you pointed this out. CAGW theory says we should have more hurricanes as temperatures rise, and as NOAA has illustrated, we have both an increase in temperature and no trend in hurricanes. According to scientific principle this would invalidate this portion of CAGW theory. Apply this sober analysis across the board and one is left with an irrational, blubbering puddle of emotion and not a rational theory. How can we have an increase in temperature if warming stopped already? It was 1998 . . . right? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 441 #2048 August 8, 2020 55 minutes ago, turtlespeed said: How can we have an increase in temperature if warming stopped already? It was 1998 . . . right? Either the temperature has been “adjusted” upward or warming doesn’t lead to more hurricanes. Take your pick Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turtlespeed 219 #2049 August 9, 2020 6 hours ago, brenthutch said: Either the temperature has been “adjusted” upward or warming doesn’t lead to more hurricanes. Take your pick Not taking the bait. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,026 #2050 August 16, 2020 Greenland ice loss passes "point of no return".https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-0001-2.pdf Share this post Link to post Share on other sites