skinnyflyer 0 #26 February 6, 2007 it appears the peak of global oil production may have already passed in 2005. which probably means that within the next few years demand will begin to overtake supply. the media will probably tell us that its an opec conspiracy or that its all irans fault. http://youtube.com/watch?v=4IwtAQzrfiw"Death is more universal than life; everyone dies but not everyone lives." A. Sachs Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,070 #27 February 6, 2007 >it appears the peak of global oil production may have >already passed in 2005. which probably means that within the >next few years demand will begin to overtake supply. Since we have an exponential demand curve, and since peak oil involves a leveling-off before we hit the peak, I expect to see massive supply shortages before we hit the actual peak. The price/availability of oil depends on both demand and supply. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,106 #28 February 6, 2007 Quote> The price/availability of oil depends on both demand and supply. There's a novel concept. You mean we could actually reduce demand?... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NCclimber 0 #29 February 6, 2007 Can someone please explain why the price of oil fell 35% from last Summer's highs to a recent level of $50/barrel? If the oil companies were just trying to help the Republicans, why did it make new 18 month lows in January? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,070 #30 February 6, 2007 > Can someone please explain why the price of oil fell 35% from last >Summer's highs to a recent level of $50/barrel? Demand/supply ratio fell. Summer driving season ended and several countried upped their output. Note that due to the cold, demand is rising again; up to $59 at last check. >If the oil companies were just trying to help the Republicans . . . They're not that well organized. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
skinnyflyer 0 #31 February 6, 2007 it won't be clear that we've hit peak until several years after it occurs. and apparantly production has fallen since 2005. and now that the second largest oil field in terms of production; cantarell in mexico, is crashing at something like 14%/year it seems unlikely that new production capacity will be able to offset decline let alone raise overall production. i was also surprised to learn that the u.s. imports more oil from mexico than from saudi arabia."Death is more universal than life; everyone dies but not everyone lives." A. Sachs Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
skinnyflyer 0 #32 February 6, 2007 i believe that we're likely to see frequent and more violent price swings in the near futur."Death is more universal than life; everyone dies but not everyone lives." A. Sachs Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ExAFO 0 #33 February 6, 2007 I'm going to interest United Airlines in building a vast fleet of sail boats. I say we build us a fine ship of the line or a man-o-war. Arrr!!Illinois needs a CCW Law. NOW. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sundevil777 102 #34 February 6, 2007 So, it won't be as "easily drillable". Doesn't mean it isn't there. Certainly the price will be affected. Enough to last centuries is a stretch, though. If restrictions on drilling in those areas currently not allowed are lifted, then there is a lot more to be had. Alaska, the Rocky Mountains and offshore have all been off limits. Then there are the oil sands/shale in Canada, and much of the oil in Siberia hasn't been tapped. Coal can be converted to oil, and there is a huge amount of that. Seems like nobody is willing to recognize that indeed there is a lot of fossil fuel still to be had. Personally, I think we should be willing to suffer the higher prices that would go along with a policy of not buying oil from many Arab countries and Venezuela. It might be a more effective weapon than our military or diplomats can wield. Along with the higher prices, we would benefit from the surge of alternative energy source research that would result.People are sick and tired of being told that ordinary and decent people are fed up in this country with being sick and tired. I’m certainly not, and I’m sick and tired of being told that I am Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,070 #35 February 6, 2007 > So, it won't be as "easily drillable". Doesn't mean it isn't there. Right, but it does put an upper limit on what we can get. When it takes more energy to get the oil out than we can get burning it, it is no longer effectively recoverable. (other than as a chemical stock.) >I think we should be willing to suffer the higher prices that would go >along with a policy of not buying oil from many Arab countries and Venezuela. Do you want to be in a situation where we have drilled all our cheap oil, Iraq and Venezuela have plenty - and someone realizes that our military runs on oil? The country who has reserves of defendable oil left will be the "last man standing" when resources get tight. I hope it's us. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ExAFO 0 #36 February 6, 2007 We're all gonna die!!Illinois needs a CCW Law. NOW. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NCclimber 0 #37 February 6, 2007 Quote> Can someone please explain why the price of oil fell 35% from last >Summer's highs to a recent level of $50/barrel? Demand/supply ratio fell. Summer driving season ended and several countried upped their output. Supply and demand? Good one. Summer driving season ended? Looking at the previous decade, crude rallied during September in 7 out of 10 years. And some countries upped their output? Causing worldwide prices to drop by 1/3rd? Just about all of the OPEC countries have been upping their output as fast as they can, for the last five years. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,070 #38 February 6, 2007 >Supply and demand? Good one. Yep. Supply went up, demand went down. Prices fell. Economics 101. >Summer driving season ended? Looking at the previous decade, >crude rallied during September in 7 out of 10 years. Yes. Here in the US, oil demand peaked in Aug at almost 22,000kbal/day and then dropped to below 21,000kbal/day in Sept. >And some countries upped their output? Causing worldwide prices >to drop by 1/3rd? Yep. Price swings are set partly by flexibility of demand. If the product has a flexible demand (like say barbie dolls) then small changes in supply result in small changes of price. If the product has a fixed uptake rate (and oil is more fixed than barbies; few people stop going to work when gas is expensive) then small changes in supply result in large changes of price, if supply is very near demand. Look for a lot more swings in the future, and look for them to be larger. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
skinnyflyer 0 #39 February 6, 2007 here is the overall trend in oil prices since 1988. http://www.oilnergy.com/1obrent.htm#since88"Death is more universal than life; everyone dies but not everyone lives." A. Sachs Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,070 #40 February 6, 2007 >here is the overall trend in oil prices since 1988. Here it is corrected for inflation. You can see where the economies of scale kicked in, where the oil embargo caused prices to rise, and where we are now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
masterrig 1 #41 February 6, 2007 QuoteUh, BTW, the guy in the video you posted said coal will run out in about 60 years and oil will run out in about 10 years. Some quotes which are applicable to this thread: ----------------- We must educate all our people to an understanding of the arithmetic and consequences of growth, especially in terms of population and the earth's finite resources. We must educate all our people to recognize the fact that growth of populations and growth of rates of consumption cannot be sustained. We need to educate people to examine carefully the claims of the optimists that ensure us that technological fixes will always be found whenever they are needed . . . they are confident that expanding populations and economies can always be sustained. ------------- If the only ultimate check on population growth is misery, then the population will grow until it is miserable enough to stop its growth. __________________________________ We need to quit being so damned wasteful in this country. We've always held that this is a land of plenty. I agree with you about 'education'. Chuck Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sundevil777 102 #42 February 6, 2007 Quote> So, it won't be as "easily drillable". Doesn't mean it isn't there. Right, but it does put an upper limit on what we can get. When it takes more energy to get the oil out than we can get burning it, it is no longer effectively recoverable. (other than as a chemical stock.) We are not anywhere close to that point, never will be, not worth discussing. Quote>I think we should be willing to suffer the higher prices that would go >along with a policy of not buying oil from many Arab countries and Venezuela. Do you want to be in a situation where we have drilled all our cheap oil, Iraq and Venezuela have plenty - and someone realizes that our military runs on oil? You have presented a false choice. There are many more possible outcomes than you describe. I do think it wise to use the 'weapon' of a boycott of their oil. If effective, then those countries might no longer be adversaries. Even if it is not effective at changing their politics, it will make them weaker, and put us in the lead on important new technologies. QuoteThe country who has reserves of defendable oil left will be the "last man standing" when resources get tight. I hope it's us. That implies that we would be better to purposefully buy as much imported oil as possible, saving our supply for later. Another false choice. Even if you are the "last man standing", you wouldn't be standing for long, and the rest of the world would be in bad shape. I think it much more important to avoid such a scenario, leading the rest of the world to new energy technologies.People are sick and tired of being told that ordinary and decent people are fed up in this country with being sick and tired. I’m certainly not, and I’m sick and tired of being told that I am Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
skinnyflyer 0 #43 February 7, 2007 QuoteWe are not anywhere close to that point, never will be, not worth discussing. actually this is exactly the point we are at now. the point when we start depending on massive increases in the production of tar sands oil production, with a questionable return on energy invested, just to offset the decline in conventional oil production."Death is more universal than life; everyone dies but not everyone lives." A. Sachs Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sundevil777 102 #44 February 7, 2007 QuoteQuoteWe are not anywhere close to that point, never will be, not worth discussing. actually this is exactly the point we are at now. the point when we start depending on massive increases in the production of tar sands oil production, with a questionable return on energy invested, just to offset the decline in conventional oil production. I reject your assertion completely. Oil production from the sands/shale is happening because the price of the product is competitive given a high enough price of 'regular' oil. If it took as much energy to make it usable as it yields when used by the consumer, it would be that much more expensive, and not competitive with regular oil. Besides, there is a lot of oil that is off limits because of policy decisions, not wanting to affect certain areas. Those decisions can be changed.People are sick and tired of being told that ordinary and decent people are fed up in this country with being sick and tired. I’m certainly not, and I’m sick and tired of being told that I am Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ExAFO 0 #45 February 7, 2007 Butt Secks.Illinois needs a CCW Law. NOW. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,070 #46 February 7, 2007 >We are not anywhere close to that point, never will be . . . I recommend viewing the video linked in the beginning of this thread. It will make the math a bit clearer. >You have presented a false choice. It is a fact that we have a finite amount of cheap oil available, and it is a fact that our military runs on oil. Now we come to the choice. At the point that the oil is almost gone (and it WILL be almost gone at some point) - who do you want in control of that oil? You can make the choice, but you can not click your heels together and make our oil supply infinite. > I do think it wise to use the 'weapon' of a boycott of their oil. If effective, >then those countries might no longer be adversaries. You think enough economic blackmail (and perhaps a few more wars) and they will start liking us? We have good relationships with countries that leave us alone. Other countries are similar to us in that respect. Perhaps we should try that. >and put us in the lead on important new technologies. The only thing that can do that is our leadership in new technologies. We cannot lead by being weak innovators and then try to destroy all those who would innovate more effectively. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Remster 30 #47 February 7, 2007 Quote If it took as much energy to make it usable as it yields when used by the consumer, it would be that much more expensive, and not competitive with regular oil You're assuming the cost of energy purchased by Suncor , Syncrude and Albian is the same as the cost of energy sold as oil. But eh, what do I know, I'm just a mining engineer.Remster Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sundevil777 102 #48 February 7, 2007 QuoteNow we come to the choice. At the point that the oil is almost gone (and it WILL be almost gone at some point) - who do you want in control of that oil? You can make the choice, but you can not click your heels together and make our oil supply infinite. Wrong. If oil is still being used in mass quantities, then being the last to have the last bit of it won't matter much, because it will all be gone very soon anyway. Your scenario is only worth considering if there was, and will be, nothing else to replace oil. Clicking of heels will not be involved, as the price goes up, other things will replace it, including oil made from coal or other things. QuoteWe have good relationships with countries that leave us alone. Other countries are similar to us in that respect. Perhaps we should try that. That would work well if everyone in the world had good intentions. Ours is not such a world. So, would you agree we should leave Darfur alone, neither Clinton or any other country should have meddled in Kosovo? If you were in charge, Germany should have been left alone in the '30s? I hadn't heard of historians that say such a policy would have been helpful, just the opposite is true - we didn't intervene soon enough. Promising to leave Islamofacists alone is not likely to change their stated goal of destroying western society, killing or converting everyone that doesn't believe their way. The ability of them to destroy our economy does not depend on their ability to kill us, it is much more achievable than that. Changing policy to leave them alone will not change that.People are sick and tired of being told that ordinary and decent people are fed up in this country with being sick and tired. I’m certainly not, and I’m sick and tired of being told that I am Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
skinnyflyer 0 #49 February 7, 2007 QuoteI reject your assertion completely it is not an assertion it is fact. just go look at any of the projections for where future oil production will come from. Quote Besides, there is a lot of oil that is off limits because of policy decisions, not wanting to affect certain areas. Those decisions can be changed. you completely missed the point of the video linked at the beginning or more likely didn't watch it. the point is that even if we did find massive new oil deposits or opened up restricted areas it would do nothing satiate our exponentiel demand."Death is more universal than life; everyone dies but not everyone lives." A. Sachs Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sundevil777 102 #50 February 7, 2007 QuoteQuote If it took as much energy to make it usable as it yields when used by the consumer, it would be that much more expensive, and not competitive with regular oil You're assuming the cost of energy purchased by Suncor , Syncrude and Albian is the same as the cost of energy sold as oil. But eh, what do I know, I'm just a mining engineer. I'm not assuming that. If oil made from the sands in Canada is price competitive, then that is the bottom line, unless they are being subsidized to create the final product. Some will say that ethanol is an example of just this - it is only viable because it is subsidized.People are sick and tired of being told that ordinary and decent people are fed up in this country with being sick and tired. I’m certainly not, and I’m sick and tired of being told that I am Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
