The Bush Recession

[kallend 2,030]

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How do the Bushites want to spin all this? It should be entertaining at least.

No spin needed. The definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Since that has yet to happen, I think saying that we are in a recession is a bit premature. Are we heading there? Perhaps...

Of course, you can make your own definition of a recession if it makes you happy.

www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/money/2008/01/10/cnsachs110.xml Goldman Sachs was the only major US player to stay out of ther sub-prime loan market so maybe they do exhibit some wisdom.

And the World Bank says: web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,date:2008-01-09~menuPK:34461~pagePK:34392~piPK:64256810~theSitePK:4607,00.html

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kelpdiver 2]

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The Bush policies probably aren't 'responsible' for the current situation. Or at least not the policies of lower taxes, higher spending, and higher deficits.

Monster deficits have no impact on economy?????

You're surely joking ...

Reagan ran monster deficits in the 80s and the economy was booming. Bush followed up and there was a recession. Clinton started reducing the deficit and had a recession in 1994, and a booming stretch up until he left office. We've seen a couple cycles since Bush Jr. took office.

So yeah, it's pretty obvious that deficits don't cause recessions. Our debt load is well short of the point where the debt load will crush us as seen in the third world.

I'd certainly would have preferred that Shrub pick between cutting taxes or spending more, rather than pick both, but that's not the cause of the liquidity crisis now and the potential drop in consumer spending. The lower interest rates inflated real estate prices and gave people credit they no longer can tap. Investors trying to maintain higher returns on fixed income in the face of the lower interest rates made foolish choices. Here we are.

I'm sorry, I disagree with most of the rest of your posting, but the details are beyond the subject at hand.

[Darius11 12]

I believe we are already in the middle of a recession. Part of my business is selling goods to the government. Immediately after the first year of the War in Iraq we noticed a huge drop in business from the government. The government has to spend their money by the September of every year, and this year we did not have a single sale. It has been a huge drop the last 4 years.

That along with higher gas prices which effect every thing, the increased cost of manufacturing raw materials, and the loss of consumer confidence is going to fuck a lot of small business like my self.

Personally I am about to lose everything I have worked my ass of to get, even considering selling all my gear just because I will need cash on hand.

So yes there is a recession, I don’t know who to blame or will waist my time trying to figure out whose fault it is. Shit happens and all we can do is deal with it.

I think the most important thing in the economy is consumer confidence, as once people stop spending and money stops changing hands then we all lose.

I'd rather be hated for who I am, than loved for who I am not." - Kurt Cobain

[crwtom 0]

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Reagan ran monster deficits in the 80s and the economy was booming. Bush followed up and there was a recession. Clinton started reducing the deficit and had a recession in 1994, and a booming stretch up until he left office. We've seen a couple cycles since Bush Jr. took office.

The recession was 1990-1991 (which did GHWB in in the elections) at the end of the Reagan Aera and on top of the huge deficit. Same pattern as 20 yeasr later now maybe shifted by a couple of years earlier. The only difference, in the 80's money was blown on a domestic party (military industry and such) and on the 00's on war and pork, which may have accelerated the inevitable bill/invoice to the public at the end in the latter case.

T

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Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

[kelpdiver 2]

You see a 20 year pattern, I see a 6 year one.

1984
1990
1994
2001
2007?

I know you hate Bush. That's fine. Take him to task for his voodoo economics gone really stupid. But you can't blame him for every bad thing that has happened.

[joedirt 0]

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at current, they're unlikely to move any further due to inflation fear.

That's not what I got from Bernanke today. What's your opinion on this... do you think inflation concerns are more important to them than domestic growth? Do you think domestic growth will not be a problem this year making it a moot point?

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Market timing on metals sounds like a good way to lose your shirt.

Maybe... i'll tell you next year... but my shirts were paid for in gold quite a while ago thanks to FED policy. Maybe I don't give our FED people enough credit, but once this credit market starts getting really tight I just can't beleive their gonna bring rates back up at the same time. This type of thing is just a hobby though, i'm an amateur.

[kelpdiver 2]

you're right - it's pretty clear they're going to lower the rates further. But with the threat of inflation to balance, it will only go so far.

It's a funny political dynamic - looking over the past few decades money policy on election years tends to be pretty favorable to the incumbent, but this is a pretty challenging year.

[kallend 2,030]

From the Wall Street Journal (bastion of liberalism).

online.wsj.com/article/SB119990867859778525.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[happythoughts 0]

The housing market and credit issues are simply caused by non-payment. The theory is that people will get jobs that will pay them enough to become solvent again.

Where will these jobs come from?
(I don't mean minimum wage jobs either)

A person that trades a high paying manufacturing job for a job with 2/3 of the previous wage is under-employed.
They don't appear on the unemployment list, but they do not drive the economy in the previous fashion.

What large scale industry exists in the US now?

Steel - Japan
Electronics - Japan
Software - India/China
Textiles - Asia

GM can't compete now. Wait until India puts a $7,000 SUV in a dealer showroom.

This is a market issue. No president can change this.

If the Fed makes more money available, people still won't be able to repay the loan.

[shropshire 0]

<>

And that's possible as they are in the process of buying Land Rover!!

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

[kallend 2,030]

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What large scale industry exists in the US now?

Weapons. We spend 45% of the entire world's defense budget.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Lucky... 0]

>>>>>>>>>>>This is a market issue. No president can change this.

Well, when you subscribe to supply side economics, you're right. IF you raise taxes on corps, have social programs that assure the poor eat and live, then they will spend that money and keep US corps in business by way of demand. When you give money to corps, either by grant or by tax cuts, they are smart, they hoard it and it stangantes the economy. This is exemplified time an dtime again, yet the geniuses won't accept that.

[Lucky... 0]

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What large scale industry exists in the US now?

Weapons. We spend 45% of the entire world's defense budget.

Yea but that pays a lot to the few, nothing to most; a great limited industry that does little but drive up taxes and the debt simultaneously.....but you obviously know that, I'm just telling the rest.

[joedirt 0]

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When you give money to corps, either by grant or by tax cuts, they are smart, they hoard it and it stangantes the economy. This is exemplified time an dtime again, yet the geniuses won't accept that

Really? Can you give some examples of this? GDP will FALL if this is true. It definitely didn't happen last time, in fact we came out of a recession fairly quickly considering the other circumstances.

I'm certainly not a huge fan of our current tax structure but your post almost sounds ridiculous to me. Beleive it or not, most small businesses in this country are corporations, it's not just Starbucks and Wall Mart. Almost all employees in the US are working for a corporation of some sort. Your drop zone is probably a corporation too, unless it is a club.

[Lucky... 0]

>>>>>>>>>>Really? Can you give some examples of this? GDP will FALL if this is true.

Great depression, GDP rose after Hoover left and FDR did his, "Chicken in every pot" socialism.

When Clinton entered office, inherited a 25B/year deficit, he raised taxs immed under the 1993 Omnibus Spending Bill, rasied them slightly for the middle, greatly for the rich. He also inherited a 7% unemp rate and huge interest rate, left it with ~7% interest and 4% unemp, a positive budget surplus.

Facist pig Reagan immed cut taxes, the debt trippled in 8 years, left unemp high and left GHW Bush a mess. Bush's answer, which he figured out too late, was to raise taxes, which he then lost the election for. It's a shame too, becuase he was actually a good president other than coattailing that garbage Reagan.

Is that enough for you?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>It definitely didn't happen last time, in fact we came out of a recession fairly quickly considering the other circumstances.

I don't think it was quick, as well as we are headed into another one. Considering under your president we will have increased the debt 4 trillion $+, will have doubled house prices, trippled gas prices, had the US Dollar fall below the Canadian dollar when your president inherited a ratio of 1USD = 1.55 CD and rising, I think you need to look at who you call ridiculous. This hammering of the economy led to the need to lower interest rates that we haven't seen for 40 years, the result was having to leave them that low for so long to spur the economy that house sellers compensated the lack of interest payments to increase the principal. Factor in slimy lenders and your president also left us with a mortgage crisis leading to all kinds of disaster including the loss of 1000's of jobs. Yea, I'm ridiculous. Nice vote for Bush, genius.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>I'm certainly not a huge fan of our current tax structure but your post almost sounds ridiculous to me.

That's because you put corporate profits before people, health, kids, education, jobs, everything. You think healthy corporations equal jobs. Many times corporations feel it is wise to close businesses, lay peoiple off, send jobs overseas. Did you watch pretty woman? Gere was a corporate raider, he would buy corporations in debt that were asset rich, sell the assets, funnel off the $$$ and then BK the corp while all the employees were fucked. It was a movie, but it does happen. Honeywell just advertised the layoff of 240 people to send jobs overseas, they call it a, "business decision." The workers call it financial devistation. Brilliant, yea, corps are here to help us.

>>>>>>>>>>>>Beleive it or not, most small businesses in this country are corporations, it's not just Starbucks and Wall Mart.

No shit. In most cases they are LLC's (limited liability companies). People incorporate to protect their persoanl assets, in fact, in the 70's it was a trend to try to incorporate your personal life so you could protect certain assets even if you got in a car wreck on the way to work. The courts sniffed that out and killed it. I know guys who own acft and incorp them seperately, in fact, I know of a very large DZ taht does that. I talked to a lawyer who knew of a cab company with 100 cabs and they incorporated each seperately to proect the other 99 if 1 got in a serious wreck. The courts didn't buy it.

Many scumbags will incorp their business so they can act illegally and then flash the corporate badge of immunity. You have to then, pierce the veil of the corporation in order to get at their personal assets.

So when I write, "corporation" don't mince it to mean a mom and pop operation, that's weak. I think you know I mean major corps, the ones the gov hides behind and bows to.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Almost all employees in the US are working for a corporation of some sort.

No shit. Something you probably don't know is that cities, counties, etc are incorporated in a sort. They are insured nd run like a business. When I refer to a corporation I obviously am referring to the bigs, can we get past that?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>Your drop zone is probably a corporation too, unless it is a club.

They're stupid if they're not. Even clubs are incorporated I'm sure. They have to have a founder, so that person would want to protect themselves.

[Lucky... 0]

>>>>>>>>The housing market and credit issues are simply caused by non-payment. The theory is that people will get jobs that will pay them enough to become solvent again.

It's bigger than that. It started with idiot cutting taxes, giving that 300/600 bucks away, causing the fed to drop interest rates to 40+ year lows and leave them there. That led to house prices doubling. The housing market has played out like a pyramid scheme, the first to play win big, the last loose their ass.

As Bush said, a president's legacy won't be written for 50 after his leaving office. That's a bit high, I think intelligent people already have written it, it will become more and more affimed as time goes on.

Those who voted for Bush, figure it out. But you won't, you'll get the moral fundies and the fiscal Nazi's together to run it into the shitter even further. When it finally pops, you'll blame the left. Some people are prone to terminal stupidity and can't understand simple data that repeats itself.

[kallend 2,030]

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When you give money to corps, either by grant or by tax cuts, they are smart, they hoard it and it stangantes the economy. This is exemplified time an dtime again, yet the geniuses won't accept that

Really? Can you give some examples of this? GDP will FALL if this is true. It definitely didn't happen last time, in fact we came out of a recession fairly quickly considering the other circumstances.

I'm certainly not a huge fan of our current tax structure but your post almost sounds ridiculous to me. Beleive it or not, most small businesses in this country are corporations, it's not just Starbucks and Wall Mart. Almost all employees in the US are working for a corporation of some sort. Your drop zone is probably a corporation too, unless it is a club.

I doubt his DZ managed to pull a TIF deal like 1/3 of all new Wal-Marts do.

If you have a Wal Mart in your town, there's a good chance that YOUR tax money is going to make the world's richest family even richer.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[mnealtx 0]

By all mean, tax those corporations down!!

Then they can lay off people that the government can take care with that same tax money they just took (plus some more).

Or, the company decides the cost of business is too high and closes or moves overseas, laying off the employees.

Great idea!!

Republican economics: Feed the golden goose so it will get bigger and lay more, larger eggs.

Democrat economics: Kill that fucker and get ALL the eggs NOW!!

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[Zipp0 1]

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Republican economics: Feed the golden goose so it will get bigger and lay more, larger eggs.

Then use those larger eggs to buy golden geese in China and Mexico. Move operation offshore to avoid corporate taxes. Exploit 3rd world geese and shitcan overpriced American geese. Line your own pockets to the max, paying as little in taxes and employee benefits as possible. Retire, pass golden geese to offspring.

Repeat.

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Chuck Norris doesn't do push-ups, he pushes the Earth down.

[mnealtx 0]

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Republican economics: Feed the golden goose so it will get bigger and lay more, larger eggs.

Then use those larger eggs to buy golden geese in China and Mexico. Move operation offshore to avoid corporate taxes. Exploit 3rd world geese and shitcan overpriced American geese. Line your own pockets to the max, paying as little in taxes and employee benefits as possible. Retire, pass golden geese to offspring.

Repeat.

WOW...the government owns the businesses now? When did the Glorious Revolution come about, Comrade???

Nice strawman...but shows what happens when business are choked down with excessive taxation.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[Zipp0 1]

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Republican economics: Feed the golden goose so it will get bigger and lay more, larger eggs.

Then use those larger eggs to buy golden geese in China and Mexico. Move operation offshore to avoid corporate taxes. Exploit 3rd world geese and shitcan overpriced American geese. Line your own pockets to the max, paying as little in taxes and employee benefits as possible. Retire, pass golden geese to offspring.

Repeat.

WOW...the government owns the businesses now? When did the Glorious Revolution come about, Comrade???

Nice strawman...but shows what happens when business are choked down with excessive taxation.

What the hell are you talking about? I said nothing about the government owning the corporations. I talked about corporations moving offshore, often paying NO TAXES, while cutting US jobs, benefits and passing lower paying jobs to foreign workers. And I am sick and fucking tired of eveyone saying that 'strawman' shit. Every argument that buries yours is not a 'strawman.'

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Chuck Norris doesn't do push-ups, he pushes the Earth down.

[Royd 0]

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That's because you put corporate profits before people, health, kids, education, jobs, everything. You think healthy corporations equal jobs. Many times corporations feel it is wise to close businesses, lay peoiple off, send jobs overseas. Did you watch pretty woman? Gere was a corporate raider, he would buy corporations in debt that were asset rich, sell the assets, funnel off the $$$ and then BK the corp while all the employees were fucked. It was a movie, but it does happen. Honeywell just advertised the layoff of 240 people to send jobs overseas, they call it a, "business decision." The workers call it financial devistation. Brilliant, yea, corps are here to help us.

But I thought that you were an altruistic socialist. Those people don't see borders.You ought to be rejoicing in the fact that we are giving those poor, pitiful Indians a chance to improve their lives. Maybe you're really just selfish, like the rest of us capitalist bastards.

[mnealtx 0]

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Republican economics: Feed the golden goose so it will get bigger and lay more, larger eggs.

Then use those larger eggs to buy golden geese in China and Mexico. Move operation offshore to avoid corporate taxes. Exploit 3rd world geese and shitcan overpriced American geese. Line your own pockets to the max, paying as little in taxes and employee benefits as possible. Retire, pass golden geese to offspring.

Repeat.

WOW...the government owns the businesses now? When did the Glorious Revolution come about, Comrade???

Nice strawman...but shows what happens when business are choked down with excessive taxation.

What the hell are you talking about? I said nothing about the government owning the corporations. I talked about corporations moving offshore, often paying NO TAXES, while cutting US jobs, benefits and passing lower paying jobs to foreign workers. And I am sick and fucking tired of eveyone saying that 'strawman' shit. Every argument that buries yours is not a 'strawman.'

Want a tissue?

We were discusing GOVERNMENT policy...not the actions of businesses. You came in and posted about business actions so that you could make your point, hence, a strawman argument.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[kallend 2,030]

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By all mean, tax those corporations down!!

Then they can lay off people that the government can take care with that same tax money they just took (plus some more).

Or, the company decides the cost of business is too high and closes or moves overseas, laying off the employees.

Great idea!!

Republican economics: Feed the golden goose so it will get bigger and lay more, larger eggs.

Democrat economics: Kill that fucker and get ALL the eggs NOW!!

How do you feel about those corporations that make deals with the local govt. so that they (the corp) gets to keep the sales taxes paid by their customers?

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[mnealtx 0]

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By all mean, tax those corporations down!!

Then they can lay off people that the government can take care with that same tax money they just took (plus some more).

Or, the company decides the cost of business is too high and closes or moves overseas, laying off the employees.

Great idea!!

Republican economics: Feed the golden goose so it will get bigger and lay more, larger eggs.

Democrat economics: Kill that fucker and get ALL the eggs NOW!!

How do you feel about those corporations that make deals with the local govt. so that they (the corp) gets to keep the sales taxes paid by their customers?

Nobody but a blind fool goes into business to purposely LOSE money. If that's the deal they make, then more power to them.

The purpose of a business is to maximize profit for it's shareholders (or owners), after all.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706