Must be a Tough Day to be Crying the "R" word...

[jcd11235 0]

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I don't think they would. His solutions are based on tax changes, to both the employers and employees, rather than revamping the health care system. Far less scary, though I'm sure many would still rather keep the status quo until it breaks completely.

That's why they would love it. It throws a bunch of money (though probably not enough if the system isn't revamped) at the problem without doing much to address the underlying causes. It offers taxpayers less value for the buck.

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[lawrocket 3]

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You make good points, but you have to agree that our economy is not in the best of shape at this moment in time and it will get worse before it gets better.

An apparently, things are not so bad as many perceive them to be. And not nearly so bad as many people wish they were.

http://real-us.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080502/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

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NEW YORK - Wall Street gave up sharp gains to trade mixed Friday after a government employment report showed the nation's employers cut far fewer jobs than expected last month, stirring optimism about the buoyancy of the economy.

A separate report showing factory orders increased in March following two months of declines helped boost investors' enthusiasm...

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The Labor Department's report that employers cut 20,000 jobs in April was a relief to Wall Street, which had been expecting payrolls to decrease by 70,000 jobs. This marked the fourth straight month of job losses, but the data signaled that perhaps the economy might be resisting falling into recession.

The Commerce Department said Friday that U.S. manufacturers saw orders increase 1.4 percent in March. Economists expected a 0.2 percent increase after declines in January and February.

Now, many people are going to hate this. It is not indicative of an economy humming along wonderfully. But it also does not support the notion that we are in a recession, much less entering a recession or a depression.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 2,028]

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You make good points, but you have to agree that our economy is not in the best of shape at this moment in time and it will get worse before it gets better.

An apparently, things are not so bad as many perceive them to be. And not nearly so bad as many people wish they were.

http://real-us.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080502/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

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NEW YORK - Wall Street gave up sharp gains to trade mixed Friday after a government employment report showed the nation's employers cut far fewer jobs than expected last month, stirring optimism about the buoyancy of the economy.

.

You do realize that you claiming things are getting better because they're not getting worse quite so fast as predicted, right?

Here's a Hint: 20,000 jobs were still LOST last month.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

And yet the unemployment rate dropped.

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You do realize that you claiming things are getting better because they're not getting worse quite so fast as predicted, right?

Yes. I do. I remember on my first jump, I thought how good it was that I had a working canopy. Sure, I was still descending, and there was some work ahead of me to be safe, but I figured that I was in a much more survivable situation. Yes, a better situation.

And yet, the spirit of irrational pessimism seems dominant still by plenty. As if people WANT a recession.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[rushmc 23]

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And yet the unemployment rate dropped.

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You do realize that you claiming things are getting better because they're not getting worse quite so fast as predicted, right?

Yes. I do. I remember on my first jump, I thought how good it was that I had a working canopy. Sure, I was still descending, and there was some work ahead of me to be safe, but I figured that I was in a much more survivable situation. Yes, a better situation.

And yet, the spirit of irrational pessimism seems dominant still by plenty. As if people WANT a recession.

There are many that WANT everyone to THINK (at the very least) there is.

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[kelpdiver 2]

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And yet the unemployment rate dropped.

That's the least meaningful metric on the subject - in a very bad recession, people exhaust their unemployment benefits before finding a job and are no longer counted as unemployed.

[lawrocket 3]

The unemployment rate remained high durign the Depression, didn't it?

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kelpdiver 2]

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The unemployment rate remained high durign the Depression, didn't it?

The practice of not counting the long unemployed was started during by Reagan, the master of metrics.

(ignoring the silliness of the comparison to the 30s)

[jcd11235 0]

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The unemployment rate remained high durign the Depression, didn't it?

The practice of not counting the long unemployed was started during by Reagan, the master of metrics.

(ignoring the silliness of the comparison to the 30s)

Interesting. I knew the why, but I didn't know the when.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[lawrocket 3]

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However, I don't think ANY voters need the NBER, you, me, or GWB to tell them how they are faring under $4 gas, high food prices, the $US in the basement, homes losing value...

I never presumed to tell anyone how they are faring. I did point out that despite the problematic components, consumer spending is up and the overall economy grew (a hair).

Crying recession long enough is only going to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's bound to happen because our economy does seem to cycle -- about every 6-8 years it seems.

If I start spouting that a plane is going to crash...sooner or later it's going to happen.

I place the current energy burden on the energy laws passed in 2005, 2007 and the weak dollar. Ethanol is a great idea, but not at the expense of the food supply.

Ask anyone with any knowledge about finances and they will tell you we are in a recession. Merryl Lynch's CEO stated this back in January, Buffet even said so even though we do not meet the technical definition of it. Look at wall street and you will see some of the smartest people in the finance world telling you that yes we are in a recession. Nothing like back in the mid 70s but yes we are in a recession.


http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/2008-03-03-buffett_N.htm

Buffett - the worst is over - at least for Wall Street.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7382714.stm

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Muenkel 0]

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Point being, 2 consecutive quarters of decline is NOT the determining factor, contrary to Gawain's original claim. NBER has yet to rule on the current situation.

However, I don't think ANY voters need the NBER, you, me, or GWB to tell them how they are faring under $4 gas, high food prices, the $US in the basement, homes losing value...

This statement by Kallend has made the most sense to me. I think everyone is arguing semantics. Maybe the pure definition of 'recession' does not yet apply but we are in financial trouble in this country. I fear it is going to get much worse before it gets better.

_________________________________________
Chris

[Amazon 7]

I would surmise that those in the public sector have a tad less to worry about than those of us in the private sector.

Right now with all the probability of going to Iraq its still more job security than many in the private sector have.

I wonder if the OP understands that.

[lawrocket 3]

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Point being, 2 consecutive quarters of decline is NOT the determining factor, contrary to Gawain's original claim. NBER has yet to rule on the current situation.

However, I don't think ANY voters need the NBER, you, me, or GWB to tell them how they are faring under $4 gas, high food prices, the $US in the basement, homes losing value...

This statement by Kallend has made the most sense to me. I think everyone is arguing semantics. Maybe the pure definition of 'recession' does not yet apply but we are in financial trouble in this country. I fear it is going to get much worse before it gets better.

I disagree, my friend. A recession has always been defined as a contraction of the economy. "Things not going great?" There's a different between that and a "recession."

For political purposes, people like to redefine words to suit their purposes. You will find people arguing that there was a recession in Clinton's last year in office. Hogwash. There were non-consecutive quarters of reduced GDP. That's not a "recession" as it has ever been commonly accepted.

When people start changing defitions of things because they want to point out how bad things are, it muddies what could be fairly clear. How do we make someone sound bad? Call him a Nazi - even though he is nowhere NEAR a Nazi. Just the word alone makes the person sound bad.

The same can be done with anything.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[jcd11235 0]

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A recession has always been defined as a contraction of the economy.

Yes. The question is, by what metrics do we define that contraction? Do we use nominal growth or real growth? It's quite possible for the former to be positive while the latter is negative. At the end of the day, from the consumers' perspective, only the real growth matters. That's what affects the thickness of their wallets and the balance of their bank accounts.

It's not uncommon for a recession to be over before it is ever officially recognized. It matters very little what the official definition is. If the people generally find their incomes to less purchasing power, official recession or not, the effects are the same.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[kallend 2,028]

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Buffett - the worst is over - at least for Wall Street.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7382714.stm

Oh!

www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/05/05/america/Berkshire-Media.php

Buffett reiterated that he believes the U.S. economy is in a recession by his definition, even if it hasn't yet met the commonly used criteria of two quarters of negative growth.

He said his definition of a recession is when most people and businesses are not doing as well as they were three, six or nine months ago.

"I would say that we're in a recession clearly," Buffett said.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

Well, since we haven't experienced "negative growth" at ALL, most people and businesses are "doing better" than they were three, six, nine months ago.

When the economy keeps growing, how can that be a recession?

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[joedirt 0]

Real growth.

Seriously people if you want a new definition then just make a new word.

[kallend 2,028]

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Well, since we haven't experienced "negative growth" at ALL, most people and businesses are "doing better" than they were three, six, nine months ago.

When the economy keeps growing, how can that be a recession?

Maybe Warren Buffet knows something that you don't.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

That's like saying, "Maybe Goerge W. Bush knows something you don't."

Are you indicating that those in power and with power should not be disagreed with?

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kallend 2,028]

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That's like saying, "Maybe Goerge W. Bush knows something you don't."

Are you indicating that those in power and with power should not be disagreed with?

No, I'm saying that those with a proven track record in some area should have their opinions respected. That excludes Bush on almost every topic.

YOU brought up Warren Buffet's opinion. Based on our relative economic successes, I'd say he has a pretty good chance of knowing more about business cycles than the two of us put together.

OTOH, I have been on record since before the 2003 Iraq invasion of making better predictions than George Bush about said invasion, and about the size of the federal deficit. "Our budget will run a deficit that will be small and short-term." President Bush, 2002 State of the Union.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[lawrocket 3]

I understand that, John. But it appears that even Buffett is saying that the worst is over.

Buffett knows plenty. I suspect Bernanke does, too. And yet, there are always differences of opinion.

I, for one, tend to be one of those who disfavors doom and gloom. Economy is as much about perception as anything else.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[JohnnyD 0]

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I understand that, John. But it appears that even Buffett is saying that the worst is over.

Actually he said this yesterday:

OMAHA, Nebraska (Reuters) - Warren Buffett on Sunday said he does not expect financial markets to panic as write-downs and losses for bad debts mount in the financial services industry, but said those losses were not over "by a long shot."

The world's richest person, who runs Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) (BRKb.N), said at a press conference the Federal Reserve brought markets back from a precipice in March in helping broker JPMorgan Chase & Co's (JPM.N) purchase of Bear Stearns Cos (BSC.N), which was on the brink of bankruptcy.

"There's going to be more pain, sure," Buffett said. "The action of the Fed, in terms of Bear Stearns, prevented in my opinion the contagion where you're essentially going to have bank runs on the investment banks ... The idea of a financial panic ... has been pretty well taken care of. That was a watershed event."

He added, though: "That doesn't mean the losses are over by a long shot ... We've looked at some of the investment banks, and it's clear some more losses are going to be incurred."

[lawrocket 3]

Yes. But he also indicated that te worst is over - or, at least, it won't get any worse, and that it may take some time for the rebound to trickle down to the general population.

It doesn't sound to me like the guy's worried...

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[JohnnyD 0]

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Yes. But he also indicated that te worst is over - or, at least, it won't get any worse, and that it may take some time for the rebound to trickle down to the general population.

It doesn't sound to me like the guy's worried...

He said this on Saturday:

"We would be very happy if we earned 10%, pre-tax" on the additions to Berkshire's equity portfolio, said Buffett. "Anyone that expects us to come close to replicating the past should sell their stock; it isn't going to happen. We'll get decent results over time, but not indecent results." Added Munger: "You can take what Warren said to the bank. We are very happy at making money at a rate in the future that's much less than the past... and I suggest that you adopt the same attitude."

I agree he's not particularly worried and he has no reason to be. He's not your garden variety American staring down an ARM, dwindling IRA account, uncertainty in Medicare and Social Security, devalued real estate, and soaring gas prices. The guy buys airplanes like the rest of us buy a gallon of milk.

[Amazon 7]

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I, for one, tend to be one of those who disfavors doom and gloom. Economy is as much about perception as anything else.

But on the other hand pie-in-the-sky optimism truely odes not work. Reference Donald Rumsfelds over-optimistic outlook on the Iraq Invasion.

Realistic goals.. and realistic outlooks on trends go a lot farther towards guilding confidence as well as turning to long term finalcial well being rather than the current short term greed that permeates corporate America.