Latest Developments in Zimbabwe

[nerdgirl 0]

Anyone else following the latest developments in Zimbabwe?

President Robert Mugabe's & his ZANU party agreed to a power sharing agreement with new-Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). ZANU retains control of the military (ZDF, ZNA, & AFZ). Surprisingly, to many observers, MDC is supposedly going to control the domestic police forces – most expected Mugabe would not cede control.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Rookie120 0]

Go get the U.N. to sign another resolution! They seem to be good at talk and no action.

If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck!

[nerdgirl 0]

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Go get the U.N. to sign another resolution! They seem to be good at talk and no action.

Apparently I am being slow this evening - please explain how your comments have any relevance to the post to which you responded?

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[airdvr 210]

Lucky should be happy about this.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[n23x 0]

What kind of outside pressure brought this deal into play (was it aid related)?

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In his speech, Mr Tsvangirai said the agreement was a "product of painful compromises" and that it did not provide "an instant cure" to the fortunes of Zimbabwe

.jim

"Don't touch my fucking Easter eggs, I'll be back monday." ~JTFC

[nerdgirl 0]

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What kind of outside pressure brought this deal into play (was it aid related)?

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In his speech, Mr Tsvangirai said the agreement was a "product of painful compromises" and that it did not provide "an instant cure" to the fortunes of Zimbabwe

South Africa's Mbeki has been given a lot of credit (or grief, depending on one's perspective) for brokering the power-sharing agreement.

The role or impetus on Mugabe's party to get the international aid organizations and international community to re-engage in Zimbabwe is speculative. Something did get him to agree to the agreement, tho ...

Reports do indicate that it was a factor for PM Tsvangirai and the MDC:

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The MDC leader said his first priority was to stop Zimbabwe's devastating food shortages and open the country to aid from the international community and its African neighbours.

"This unity government will let businesses flourish so our people can work and provide for their families with pride," he [Tsvangirai] said.

There is little doubt -- beyond Mugabe and his supporters -- that Tsvangirai won the election. It seems to be a credit to Tsvangirai to compromise for the longterm benefit of his country (i.e., getting Mugabe out of power, albeit slower than most of the world would like.)

VR/Marg


p.s. during today's State Dept Daily Press Briefing -- (what's on *your* iPod? ) -- Sean McCormack stated that the US has been briefed by representatives of the MDC and supports the agreement.

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[TheAnvil 0]

That country has seen far more than its fair share of suffering. Hopefully this will be the start of a meaningful transition of power from Mugabe and his thugs to the opposition. That racist bastard Mugabe needs to exit stage left as soon as possible.

Vinny the Anvil
Post Traumatic Didn't Make The Lakers Syndrome is REAL
JACKASS POWER!!!!!!

[Gawain 0]

Who has power over the money...that country is going through beyond-hyper inflation, 100,000+%. Mugabe is the corrosive element. While he remains in power, Zimbabwe is in a tenuous position.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[nerdgirl 0]

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Who has power over the money...that country is going through beyond-hyper inflation, 100,000+%.

Estimates vary from the official government value of 22,400% to over 50M%.

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Mugabe is the corrosive element. While he remains in power, Zimbabwe is in a tenuous position.

If Mugabe died tomorrow would all of Zimbabwe's problems be solved? Of course not. That's one of the inherant dangers of focusing on a single individual.

Pointing out problems is easy; creating, implementing, and executing effective solutions is much harder. What do you propose doing?

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Gawain 0]

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If Mugabe died tomorrow would all of Zimbabwe's problems be solved? Of course not. That's one of the inherant dangers of focusing on a single individual.

Pointing out problems is easy; creating, implementing, and executing effective solutions is much harder. What do you propose doing?

VR/Marg

I don't dispute that, but recent have been the root of Mugabe's own play, from price controls to rubbing out the opposition in the last election.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[nerdgirl 0]

Again, pointing out problems is easy; creating, implementing, and executing effective solutions is much harder. What do you propose doing?

I'll even suggest some possible policy options: (1) do nothing, always an option, (2) have AFRICOM lead an invasion of Zimbabwe (pragmatics of troops to be dealt with later).

Perhaps a more effective policy in alignment with advancing US strategic interests would look a lot like what the State Dept has been/is doing: keep open lines of communication; publically support the domestic and African-led process; request additional inofrmation on specifics; and involve folks who are knowledgeable (aka experts) w/r/t southern African politics, culture, history, and fluent in languages involved, i.e., use diplomacy. Don't make it about Mugabe. *Could* the US do more? Yes. Is it in the US strategic interest to do a lot more or to interfere in their process at this time? I don't think so. US strategic interests in Africa are much higher in the Maghreb.

Reference again: here and here, independent and dependent variables, aka factors, that have been shown to correlate with stability, which show that the most important factors are institutional.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Gawain 0]

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Again, pointing out problems is easy; creating, implementing, and executing effective solutions is much harder. What do you propose doing?

Again, I'm not arguing any particular point you make. I do believe that Mugabe's removal would open the opportunity for near immediate improvements which would make less direct interventions by the African Union more appealing.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[nerdgirl 0]

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I do believe that Mugabe's removal would open the opportunity for near immediate improvements which would make less direct interventions by the African Union more appealing.

How do you propose affecting "Mugabe's removal"?

If by direct intervention, do you think that would increase or decrease the instability in Zimbabwe & the neighboring states?

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Gawain 0]

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I do believe that Mugabe's removal would open the opportunity for near immediate improvements which would make less direct interventions by the African Union more appealing.

How do you propose affecting "Mugabe's removal"?

If by direct intervention, do you think that would increase or decrease the instability in Zimbabwe & the neighboring states?

VR/Marg

Unfortunately, I don't know enough about how he consolidated his power.

It does appear that change from within may be the most difficult. Direct intervention from Zimbabwe's neighbors should be on the list of considerations in my view (Ethiopia's move into Somalia wasn't a total failure was it?).

Again, if this "agreement" to share power is exploited carefully, it could undo the damage which many attribute to Mugabe.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[nerdgirl 0]

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Again, if this "agreement" to share power is exploited carefully, it could undo the damage which many attribute to Mugabe.

Or if the power-sharing agreement is not undermined due to obsession with a single individual and desire for retribution, Mugabe could be gone in a few years, institutions supported, and overall stability of Zimbabwe improved (still very far from ideal.)

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[ErricoMalatesta 0]

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Hopefully this will be the start of a meaningful transition of power from Mugabe and his thugs to the opposition. That racist bastard Mugabe needs to exit stage left as soon as possible.

Yeah the problem is he killed white people...

[BIGUN 1,317]

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At a news briefing, State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack called the agreement - under which Mr. Tsvangirai will share power with President Mugabe as prime minister - a heartening development after years of turmoil.

http://voanews.com/english/2008-09-16-voa42.cfm

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[TomAiello 26]

I've been following it for some time (like years) now.

I honestly don't believe that Mugabe will share power. It's my (somewhat cynical) assessment that this is all just a play for time/breathing room on Mugabe's part. I expect to see him revert to his usual thuggishness in short order.

For what it's worth, I don't believe the US should intervene there (or anywhere else, for that matter) because I don't want to spend my money trying to fix things all over the world. I believe that fixing things in Zimbabwe is pretty much the business of people in Zimbabwe.

Were I living in Zimbabwe, I actually think I'd favor a full on, massively violent, throw 'em up against the wall style revolution. Things there are so screwed up that the best course of action is to hit the reset button and start over.

-- Tom Aiello

Tom@SnakeRiverBASE.com
SnakeRiverBASE.com

[nigel99 489]

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I've been following it for some time (like years) now.

I honestly don't believe that Mugabe will share power. It's my (somewhat cynical) assessment that this is all just a play for time/breathing room on Mugabe's part. I expect to see him revert to his usual thuggishness in short order.

For what it's worth, I don't believe the US should intervene there (or anywhere else, for that matter) because I don't want to spend my money trying to fix things all over the world. I believe that fixing things in Zimbabwe is pretty much the business of people in Zimbabwe.

Were I living in Zimbabwe, I actually think I'd favor a full on, massively violent, throw 'em up against the wall style revolution. Things there are so screwed up that the best course of action is to hit the reset button and start over.

I think you are partly right. However I think the more sinister part is that Morgan (now prime minister) has bought into the coalition. I don't know what the carrot was but for the winner to buy into being underdog to the loser after holding out for 4/5 months something happened - and it happened in secret. Add to this that Zimbabwe now has an enormous government (just what you need to escape inflation at 10-40 MILLION %)

It is also not without precedent as in 1987 ZAPU (Joshua Nkomo) joined forces with Mugabe after some estimated 20 000 people were killed. This allowed Mugabe to have a 1 party state with no cohesive opposition in exactly the same way as this agreement.

Quietly sitting in the wings is a person called Simba Makoni - he may be Zimbabwe's only hope in about 5 years time.

Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived.

[nerdgirl 0]

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Quietly sitting in the wings is a person called Simba Makoni - he may be Zimbabwe's only hope in about 5 years time.

Thanks for the additional information; I was hoping you would proverbially 'chime into' the thread.

With whom is Makoni affiliated? Why do you see him/his influence as hopeful?

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[nerdgirl 0]

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I honestly don't believe that Mugabe will share power. It's my (somewhat cynical) assessment that this is all just a play for time/breathing room on Mugabe's part. I expect to see him revert to his usual thuggishness in short order.

Thanks for adding to the discussion. Appreciate the perspective.

I don't think anyone (?) is under the impression that Mugabe is doing it because he's suddenly appreciated the importance of putting his people's interests forward. If he didn't feel his power was threatened, he wouldn't have done anything, imo,

What's different from 1987? First, the economy. Second, pressure from other nearby African states/lack of tacit support by other nearby African states. Third, Mugabe's getting old. Speculate those are the critical factors, especially the first two. Lesser factors: international sanctions and withdrawal of the international community.

In the 1987 power-sharing agreement, iirc, Mugabe retained control of domestic security forces (police). [Nigel - do you recall?] I suspect that may be a key piece to limiting Mugabe's reversion to "thuggish" behavior ... all speculate that's one area about which the US State Dept wants to know more, i.e., what are the institutional barriers to limit Mugabe and his proxies' thuggish behavior? And that needs to be tested.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[rickjump1 0]

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Hopefully this will be the start of a meaningful transition of power from Mugabe and his thugs to the opposition. That racist bastard Mugabe needs to exit stage left as soon as possible.

Yeah the problem is he killed white people...

Yeah; and look at the country now. Maybe if some of the "white" farmers were asked to return , they might help rebuild the country.

Do your part for global warming: ban beans and hold all popcorn farts.

[nigel99 489]

Simba Makoni http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simba_Makoni

Was a senior member of Mugabe's government but resigned/got fired around 2002 for not following the party line as he disagreed with the policy direction. Although he was a member of the politburo until he stood against Mugabe for the presidency which has resulted in 1/2 the population liking him as it makes him anti-west by implication, and the other 1/2 lumping him as a Mugabe stooge.

He is a very experienced politician and could probably get alot of support. He contested against Mugabe in these elections and although he launched his campaign only about 3 weeks (from memory) before elections he got 10% of the vote which is pretty incredible.

Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived.

[nerdgirl 0]

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Simba Makoni http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simba_Makoni

PhD Chemist ... hmmm ... nice.
/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Skyrad 0]

It will end in tears

When an author is too meticulous about his style, you may presume that his mind is frivolous and his content flimsy.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca