Riddle me this (re: the economy)

[Gawain 0]

With all the "doom-gloom" apparently going on right now, and today's market is opening down right now, and the "bail-out" deal currently not happening, something should be happening that apparently isn't:

-- Commodities should be going through the roof: Gold, Silver, Platinum, Oil...et al...

...but, they're not.

With the coming "meltdown" and "end of the world" and "end of free markets as we know them" precious commodities, as of now, are not seeing a huge up-tick in commodities of intrinsic value.

Why?

Could it be that the "meltdown-end-of-the-world-free-market-death-as-we-know-it" isn't as dire as the "in-the-tank" press is hyping...

As of 10:59 EDT, 26 SEP 08:
Oil down $2.07/bbl
Silver up $0.21/oz
Gold up $17.80/oz
Copper down $8.05/lb
Corn down $9.25/bu
Coffee down $2.00/lb
Cocoa up $20.00/MT

Where's the run?

So, conservatives in Congress are rightly stalling on a quick solution for this. Enough people are saying that this situation is problematic, but putting the screws to the taxpayer is not the only solution.

Rep. Frank and Sen. Dodd need to recuse themselves from this "deal". Real businessmen need to be consulting the rest of the leadership, and the solution needs to be based on leadership, not lawyer-ship.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[Andy9o8 2]

Quote

Where's the run?

You haven't seen my garage.
And you're not going to.

[billvon 3,006]

>So, conservatives in Congress are rightly stalling on a quick solution
>for this. . . .Rep. Frank and Sen. Dodd need to recuse themselves from
>this "deal".

Actually, the republicans have to stop using this as a campaigning tool, and hand over negotiations to Dodd. He's been the most effective voice in slowing this down so far, and has been quite vociferous in the need to add safeguards (i.e. guarantees that we get the money back) before anything goes forward.

Hopefully, if something _does_ pass, people will heed Obama as well and not load it down with pork.

[Gawain 0]

Quote

>So, conservatives in Congress are rightly stalling on a quick solution
>for this. . . .Rep. Frank and Sen. Dodd need to recuse themselves from
>this "deal".

Actually, the republicans have to stop using this as a campaigning tool, and hand over negotiations to Dodd. He's been the most effective voice in slowing this down so far, and has been quite vociferous in the need to add safeguards (i.e. guarantees that we get the money back) before anything goes forward.

Hopefully, if something _does_ pass, people will heed Obama as well and not load it down with pork.

Dude...Sen. Dodd has taken more money from this industry than anyone in Congress. Sen. Obama has the two former CEOs of Freddie/Fannie as advisors to his campaign...

There are members of Congress that actually used to be businessmen, not lawyers. Find them to lead this effort. Sen. Dodd is a "dud" and Rep. Frank is doing all sorts of dancing, since he's on the record as little as five years ago saying how Fannie/Freddie are fine, don't need reform, and if they fell, they wouldn't be bailed out anyway.

Folks, the democrat party leadership is lining up behind the President (whom they despise) to make this happen...something is very wrong here.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[marks2065 0]

Quote

Quote

>So, conservatives in Congress are rightly stalling on a quick solution
>for this. . . .Rep. Frank and Sen. Dodd need to recuse themselves from
>this "deal".

Actually, the republicans have to stop using this as a campaigning tool, and hand over negotiations to Dodd. He's been the most effective voice in slowing this down so far, and has been quite vociferous in the need to add safeguards (i.e. guarantees that we get the money back) before anything goes forward.

Hopefully, if something _does_ pass, people will heed Obama as well and not load it down with pork.

Dude...Sen. Dodd has taken more money from this industry than anyone in Congress. Sen. Obama has the two former CEOs of Freddie/Fannie as advisors to his campaign...

There are members of Congress that actually used to be businessmen, not lawyers. Find them to lead this effort. Sen. Dodd is a "dud" and Rep. Frank is doing all sorts of dancing, since he's on the record as little as five years ago saying how Fannie/Freddie are fine, don't need reform, and if they fell, they wouldn't be bailed out anyway.
----------------------------------------------------------
something is VERY wrong here. ceo's need to be held responsible for their leadership (or lack there of). everyone is holding Bush responsible for what happened during his time why not follow that to the ceo's?

Also why would we give $700 billion dollars to the people that started this mess (and it starts in 1994 under clinton and continued under Bush) This should be a limited bailout with oversight. the checkbook should be held by one of each party with a presidentially apointed mediator, and the companies involed should be made to bare part of the costs.

I like the fact that this thing has stalled, makes people think a little and maybe a wiser descision will prevail.

Folks, the democrat party leadership is lining up behind the President (whom they despise) to make this happen...something is very wrong here.

[billvon 3,006]

>Dude...Sen. Dodd has taken more money from this industry than anyone
>in Congress. Sen. Obama has the two former CEOs of Freddie/Fannie as advisors
>to his campaign...

Right. And McCain helped CAUSE the first massive S+L bailout decades ago, and his chief financial advisor was paid by investors to remove the safeguards that could have prevented this economic downturn. But somehow I doubt you will be calling for him to recuse himself.

>Folks, the democrat party leadership is lining up behind the President
>(whom they despise) to make this happen...something is very wrong here.

And the GOP is calling for a bailout. Yes, there is something very wrong here. Playing the usual partisan politics game of "set the other guy up to fail" is not the solution.

[jcd11235 0]

Quote

Sen. Obama has the two former CEOs of Freddie/Fannie as advisors to his campaign...

Care to name them, or are you just parroting McCain's misleading talking points?

From Obama's Fannie Mae 'Connection':

The Obama campaign last night issued a statement by Raines insisting, "I am not an advisor to Barack Obama, nor have I provided his campaign with advice on housing or economic matters." Obama spokesman Bill Burton went a little further, telling me in an e-mail that the campaign had "neither sought nor received" advice from Raines "on any matter."

From Obama and McCain both have ties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac:

A former member of Barack Obama’s VP search team, James A. Johnson, served as chairman of Fannie Mae. Although the Obama campaign doesn’t take contributions from lobbyists, it has received significant donations from both companies’ employees and PACs.

John McCain’s connections to the two mortgage companies are more numerous. His campaign manager, Rick Davis, headed the Homeownership Alliance, an advocacy group for the two lenders. His close adviser, Charlie Black, is a long-time lobbyist whose firm represented Freddie Mac.

Two of McCain’s bundlers, supporters who help raise large amounts of money for the campaign, have ties to Fannie Mae. Robert H. Holt is a lobbyist for the firm, and Wayne Berman is managing director of Ogilvy Government Relations, which also represents the company.

A third McCain bundler, Geffrey T. Boisi, is a director of Freddie Mac

From McCain Transition Head Lobbied for Freddie Mac Before Takeover:

The lobbying firm of the man Republicans say John McCain has chosen to begin planning a presidential transition earned more than a quarter of a million dollars this year representing Freddie Mac, one of the companies McCain blames for the nation's financial crisis.

Timmons & Co., whose founder and chairman emeritus is William Timmons Sr., was registered to lobby for Freddie Mac from 2000 through this month, when the federal government took over both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

From McCain's Fannie and Freddie Connections:

Aquiles Suarez, listed as an economic adviser to the McCain campaign in a July 2007 McCain press release, was formerly the director of government and industry relations for Fannie Mae. The Senate Lobbying Database says Suarez oversaw the lending giant's $47,510,000 lobbying campaign from 2003 to 2006.

And other current McCain campaign staffers were the lobbyists receiving shares of that money. According to the Senate Lobbying Database, the lobbying firm of Charlie Black, one of McCain's top aides, made at least $820,000 working for Freddie Mac from 1999 to 2004. The McCain campaign's vice-chair Wayne Berman and its congressional liaison John Green made $1.14 million working on behalf of Fannie Mae for lobbying firm Ogilvy Government Relations. Green made an additional $180,000 from Freddie Mac. Arther B. Culvahouse Jr., the VP vetter who helped John McCain select Sarah Palin, earned $80,000 from Fannie Mae in 2003 and 2004, while working for lobbying and law firm O'Melveny & Myers LLP. In addition, Politico reports that at least 20 McCain fundraisers have lobbied for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, pocketing at least $12.3 million over the last nine years.

For years McCain campaign manager Rick Davis was head of the Homeownership Alliance, a lobbying association that included Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, real estate agents, homebuilders, and non-profits. According to Politico, the organization opposed congressional attempts at regulation of Fannie and Freddie, along the lines of what John McCain is currently proposing. In his capacity of president of the group, Davis went on record in 2003 and insisted that no further reform of the lenders was necessary, in contradiction to his current boss's sentiments. "[Fannie and Freddie] are subject to an innovative and stringent risk-based capital stress test," Davis wrote. "The toughest in the financial services industry."

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[marks2065 0]

everybody is up to eyes in this shit and we have no choice but to let this play out.

[nerdgirl 0]

Quote

-- Commodities should be going through the roof: Gold, Silver, Platinum, Oil...et al...



As of 10:59 EDT, 26 SEP 08:
Oil down $2.07/bbl
Silver up $0.21/oz
Gold up $17.80/oz
Copper down $8.05/lb
Corn down $9.25/bu
Coffee down $2.00/lb
Cocoa up $20.00/MT

(1) “Should be” according to whom?

(2) Oil prices fell $2.07/barrel on Friday due to concerns and uncertainties that the proposed bailout would not be sufficient to restore demand according to most analysts …

Otoh, oil prices rose more on Thursday: +$2.29/barrel.

Monday saw “Oil makes biggest single-day price jump ever” when prices spiked by $25.45/barrel at noon, finally closely (only) up $16.37/barrel.

Other explanations offered for Monday’s surge in price of oil: “A massive jump in the price of oil this week has raised new concerns about the role of speculators and possible market manipulation, but traders say the historic surge had more to do with ‘stupidity’ or poor risk management.”

Perhaps more importantly w/r/t oil prices, demand in the US is down more than 5% from a year ago and “[o]il prices have dropped sharply from record-high levels above 147 dollars in July on worries that demand will shrink in the faltering global economy.”

The settling of the price of oil at the end of the week seems to more be an indicator than the proposed bailout is having a stabilizing influence. The rise in gold commodity prices is somewhat in line with the proposed assertion that “Commodities should be going through the roof” - prices for “gold shot above $920 an ounce Friday before closing up below those highs.” On Friday, the US Mint suspended the sale of 24-karat gold coins “because it can't keep up with soaring demand as investors seek the safety of gold amid economic turbulence.” Sale was temporarily halted in August too.

“… silver contracts rallied even higher than gold on Friday, closing up 23 cents an ounce at $13.50.”

From where did you get the data and interpretation that you suggest? For rises to be meaningful, one needs to know over the time period of change.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[joedirt 0]

What is your point nerdgirl?

[nerdgirl 0]

Quote

What is your point nerdgirl?

My apologies, I thought it was clear. Always good to have a check on one's assumptions. I appreciate the request for clarification.

The assertions suggested in the original post to which I responded were (1) not supported by the data, (therefore plenty of counter-data provided) and not well-specified (time of change), and (2) the correlations & causations suggested don’t hold (therefore multiple counter-explanations provided). Even if Friday’s data did support the asserted trend (which is doesn’t wholly when more data is introduced), selectively picking one day and ignoring the rest of the week or longer term trends in attempting to explain economic behavior is a less than robust methodology. It may, however, inspire further inquiry ... or generate questions.

It was also, like your request for more information, (3) an inquiry as to who or on what basis the things that were asserted as phenomena which we “should be” observing were based, i.e., is it historical precedent (when? where?), is it an economic model (whose?) or is it notional speculation?

Do you have answers to (3)? Or counter-explanations?

VR/Marg

[edit] p.s. to paraphrase [airdvr], the point is it's worth investigating the rest of the story.

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Gawain 0]

Quote

Do you have answers to (3)? Or counter-explanations?

VR/Marg

[edit] p.s. to paraphrase [airdvr], the point is it's worth investigating the rest of the story.

I saw you initial point, and I still disagree. The $16 surge in oil didn't hold at the end of the day. There "should" be some kind of stagflation type run (ala 1970s) on some of these commodities. Gold is up, but down from March. Silver is way down from earlier this year, as is Platinum. There has been no run on precious commodities.

Again. Where is the real crisis?

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[jcd11235 0]

Quote

The $16 surge in oil didn't hold at the end of the day.

Yes the the $16.37 surge in oil did hold at the end of the day, according to Marg's cited source. It was the $25.45 surge that did not hold at the end of the day.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[nerdgirl 0]

Quote

I saw you initial point, and I still disagree.

You disagree with the data?

Quote

Again. Where is the real crisis?

Hopefully, the USG is avoiding that with action.

Do you remember what happened to the Japanese markets in the 1990s? And what their response was?

It's not a strawman that you're trying to make ... the data is equivocal. It's not making the case you're trying to make. And the data may support a counter-hypothesis, that the actions of USG (as opposed to the inaction of the Japanese Diet) are stabilizing the market so that the indicators are unclear -- some are up, some are down. What you're asserting supports the pyschological effect of the proposed bail-out, i.e., the actions are stabilizing the market.

In some ways it's not unlike the claimants that assert 'we aren't seeing people die from a crisis of polio or measles today in the US, therefore we don't need vaccines anymore.' (Nevermind that the first 6 months of 2008 saw 130 cases of measles, above the 10-y US average of ~60 case per year; those 130 cases were largely in unvaccinated children.)

Have you explored *any* counter-explanations? Or are you fitting data to the case you want?

Illustratively, copper [& nickel too] prices are soaring ... and for reasons largely unrelated to the financial turmoil. If you don't examine counter-explanations and if you apply sleection bias to your data, you may miss the underlying reasons.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Gawain 0]

Quote

Quote

The $16 surge in oil didn't hold at the end of the day.

Yes the the $16.37 surge in oil did hold at the end of the day, according to Marg's cited source. It was the $25.45 surge that did not hold at the end of the day.

That's right...I mis-typed...my mistake.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[Gawain 0]

Quote

Quote

I saw you initial point, and I still disagree.

You disagree with the data?

I disagree with the situation as it's being force-fed to us.

Quote

Quote

Again. Where is the real crisis?

Hopefully, the USG is avoiding that with action.

Good God, I hope not.

The United States Government that lauds the benefits of our open society and free market economy now wants to undo this hole thing.

Quote

Do you remember what happened to the Japanese markets in the 1990s? And what their response was?

Indeed I do, my wife is Japanese and have a fair understanding. The result of that action put Japan into a 10 year+ recession. Just now, the Japanese banks are looking to invest off-shore again.

Quote

Have you explored *any* counter-explanations?

I have, and I am offering my own. This stuff has been simmering for a while now, then all of the sudden, the Sec Treas says, "we need to fix this and the only way to do it is with $700B".

First of all, I don't know why anyone would take that at face value.

Second of all, the lawmakers in DC were coming out with announcements of agreements when there had been NONE.

We aren't getting the whole story and that is reflected by what is NOT happening. Despite these set-backs, the economy is still creeping growth. Interest rates, while staying steady are low. The dollar no longer appears to be in a free fall. Investors are not pulling everything they have out of the market.

Quote

Or are you fitting data to the case you want?

I took a snap shot of what was going on Friday morning, in the wake of what had been in the news, no deal, conservatives raising an eye-brow to this price tag.

The underlying point from my post is that this self-made crisis is more and more political than anything else. The democrats have enough representation in Congress to "pass" the "rescue", but they haven't and they won't without the Republicans...why is that?

Solely to get them on the hook for the biggest socialization and government takeover in the history of mankind?

Let them take more time I say...there is enough money in the world financial markets that $700B is barely a drop in the bucket. The size of the world market is about $51Tr.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[nerdgirl 0]

Quote

Quote

Do you remember what happened to the Japanese markets in the 1990s? And what their response was?

Indeed I do, my wife is Japanese and have a fair understanding. The result of that action put Japan into a 10 year+ recession. Just now, the Japanese banks are looking to invest off-shore again.

Uh ... Japanese failure to do anything. Not action. It was the *lack* of action that led to the recession.

E.g., Japan's Financial Crisis: Institutional Rigidity and Reluctant Change

"From 1985 to 1990, Japan experienced an asset bubble of unprecedented proportions. The Nikkei Stock Index surged in these five years from below 7,000 to over 39,000, while the price of other assets--and real estate, in particular--multiplied many times over. During this period, the central bank maintained an extremely loose monetary policy, holding interest rates at postwar lows. Japanese banks engaged in a lending frenzy and, in doing so, helped to fuel the surge in asset prices. They extended many loans for purposes of investment in the stock or real estate markets. They extended many more for the buildup of industrial capacity on a scale that could only be fully utilized if bubble-period consumption trends persisted.

"From 1990, this bubble began to burst--first with a plunge in the Nikkei Stock Index, followed in early 1992 by a tumble in land prices. Both developments had a severe impact on the ability of corporate and individual borrowers to repay loans. The bursting of the bubble thus left banks throughout Japan--both large and small--in financial distress, burdened with massive amounts of bad debt. This bad debt, in turn, weakened bank capital ratios, sharply raising their likelihood of collapse and severely impairing the capacity of banks to extend credit to new borrowers. (e.g., what was seen in the US paper market on Monday ... that affects small businesses who need short term loans).

"History is replete with financial crises, however.2 In recent decades, many countries have experienced distress in their banking sectors, in particular. Since the 1980s, crisis has struck several major Latin American and African countries, Russia, and numerous countries in East Asia. Even advanced industrial nations with highly advanced financial systems and seemingly strong banking regulators such as the United States and the Scandinavian countries have experienced severe crises. So, why a book about Japan's financial crisis? At least two features of the Japanese case stand out as distinctive; both are intimately related and pose important substantive and theoretical puzzles.

"The first feature is the extraordinary delay by Japanese government officials before intervening to aggressively address the bad debt problem in the nation's banking system. The resolution of banking crises typically requires the use of public funds to recapitalize banks, augment the depositor safety net, and establish a temporary agency to take control of failed banks and dispose of their assets. Since an injection of public funds is always politically unpopular, governments often delay before mustering the political will to allocate taxpayer money to this end. Nonetheless, mechanisms seem to exist in other countries to spur a more prompt response to financial crisis than that seen in Japan.

"According to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) study, those countries that made the greatest progress in the wake of financial crisis took a little less than ten months on average before embarking on systemic bank restructuring while those countries making the slowest progress took, on average, approximately four years.

"In Japan, eight years passed from the onset of severe financial distress before the government initiated aggressive measures to tackle the bad debt problem and institute fundamental financial system reforms. As a result of this delay, what might have been relatively small costs of clean up in economic terms turned into staggering costs. By the time of this action, the amount of bad debt held by Japanese banks was estimated to total 1 trillion dollars or approximately 30 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). Clearly Japan's extraordinary delay places the country well outside even the upper bounds of normalcy."

It was *inaction* on the part of the Japanese Diet that led to 10+year recession. The case of Japan supports intervention, whether you or I like it, of the USG. It also suggests that it should be careful policy not rushed.

VR/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[joedirt 0]

Thanks for clarifying your original post. I agree, in that a one day rise or fall in prices can mean anything. I however disagree with you on the notion that the Japanese recession was caused by a lack of government action. I think the Austrian school types make more sense. Recession is the cure. It takes quite an arrogant politician to think he can control this sort of thing. "Addressing bad debts" is a euphamism for keeping overinflated assets overinflated. The only way they can do that is by inflating everything else. Except I think there's a good chance it will backfire. Our paper assets could still deflate while our tangibles go though the roof. Since so many other countries are struggling too, we could see commodities and oil disconnect from a direct relationship from the dollar. I picture a bailout plan where their beloved stock market has a brief rally, every one pats each other on the back. In the mean time commodities start picking up steam behind the scenes. Eventually the stock market crashes again, everyone yells for our leaders to do something. This time though it may not be as easy to sell out t notes and the dollar really starts falling. I guess we're gonna find out if intervention can be a long term solution, but I don't have much faith in that.

[jcd11235 0]

Quote

I think the Austrian school types make more sense.

Austrian economic theory isn't applicable in the real world.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[joedirt 0]

Which part? That creating artificialy low interest rates leads to unsustainable growth? Or that recession is needed to bring prices in line and sell off surplus?

Care to enlighten this ol country boy?

[jcd11235 0]

Quote

Which part? That creating artificialy low interest rates leads to unsustainable growth? Or that recession is needed to bring prices in line and sell off surplus?

Care to enlighten this ol country boy?

The part where any government intervention at all will result in economic problems, and how consumers and firms can keep one another in check with only supply and demand.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[ChasingBlueSky 0]

Quote

Quote

Sen. Obama has the two former CEOs of Freddie/Fannie as advisors to his campaign...

Care to name them, or are you just parroting McCain's misleading talking points?

Interesting how your proof was ignored.

You could also add this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/us/politics/22mccain.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1222707082-1XKK8s3CHQPVbleS7mNUlw

_________________________________________
you can burn the land and boil the sea, but you can't take the sky from me....
I WILL fly again.....

[Gawain 0]

I wasn't ignoring your post about connecting the Fannie/Freddie dots to Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain, the differences in what you cite are simple. Those that worked for Fannie/Freddie as outside firms versus those that actually ran the company. Frank Raines has known Sen. Obama since before he became an Illinois State Senator (http://www.nndb.com/people/905/000094623/).

Those that worked for Fannie/Freddie, a law firm, a lobbyist are voices for those that run the show. As you might say, the buck doesn't stop with them....does it?

Anyway, if you're familiar with www.nndb.com, I find it to be a fascinating site. They also have a mapper. I plugged a bunch of names, trimmed some of the connection lines and came up with an interesting picture.

One thing I found interesting is that there were fewer overlaps than I thought there would be, as all these clowns run in the same circles. I don't know if my screen capture will be legible, but...

...I'm weary of all these guys now...

Edit...nevermind...the attachment looks like @ss...

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[jcd11235 0]

Quote

I wasn't ignoring your post about connecting the Fannie/Freddie dots to Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain, the differences in what you cite are simple. Those that worked for Fannie/Freddie as outside firms versus those that actually ran the company.

Right, because outsourced work on behalf of the company is totally irrelevant.

Quote

Frank Raines has known Sen. Obama since before he became an Illinois State Senator.

It's terribly unfortunate for your argument that Raines isn't involved in the Obama campaign. By your logic, everyone Obama has ever known is involved in his campaign. If that's the case, then it says something extremely positive about Obama as a candidate, don't you think?

Quote

Those that worked for Fannie/Freddie, a law firm, a lobbyist are voices for those that run the show. As you might say, the buck doesn't stop with them....does it?

Do you think it was the executives or the lobbyists that lobbied for the deregulation that ushered in the financial crisis? A hitman is no less guilty than the guy who puts out the contract, figuratively speaking.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[kallend 2,027]

Quote

Frank Raines has known Sen. Obama since before he became an Illinois State Senator (http://www.nndb.com/people/905/000094623/).

..

Well, there's an irrelevance if ever I saw one.

I've known the former chairman of the Cook County (Illinois) Republican Party for decades. I've been to his cocktail parties. Does that make me a Republican campaign staffer?

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.