US guns in Mexico

[downwardspiral 0]

The Myth of 90 Percent: Only a Small Fraction of Guns in Mexico Come From U.S.

www.FourWheelerHB.com

[marks2065 0]

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The Myth of 90 Percent: Only a Small Fraction of Guns in Mexico Come From U.S.

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oh no you just fucked up the "take you guns away" liberal agenda for the month. Another perfect example of numbers and how they get used for the wrong reasons

[DrewEckhardt 0]

The fully-automatic M16, AK47s, and sub-guns showing up in Mexico effectively can't be purchased in America.

The weapons with no serial numbers (as in not removed serial numbers, but originally manufactured without serial numbers) can't be purchased from gun-shops in America.

Only the nice firearms used by wealthy people for self-protection come from here.

I like this first-hand report and editorial:

http://www.ncc-1776.org/tle2009/tle512-20090329-05.html

[chuckakers 425]

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The Myth of 90 Percent: Only a Small Fraction of Guns in Mexico Come From U.S.

There ya go, getting in the liberals way with those pesky facts. I get the feeling this will be a very quiet thread.

Chuck Akers
D-10855
Houston, TX

[JohnRich 4]

Yep, another fine example of the lying propaganda that gun-o-phobes use to try and scare the public into enacting more gun restrictions on the American public, who are not the cause of Mexico's gun violence.

[wmw999 2,452]

Thanks for posting that.

Wendy W.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[downwardspiral 0]

Honestly I do hope Obama institutes another assault weapon ban becuase that would almost make certain he is only a 1 termer.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=6960824

www.FourWheelerHB.com

[nerdgirl 0]

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Thanks for posting that.

+1

Further illustration of the value of empirical data.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[TomAiello 26]

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Honestly I do hope Obama institutes another assault weapon ban becuase that would almost make certain he is only a 1 termer.

It would also make me a fair chunk of change.


Edit to add: But I find it extremely unlikely that it will happen before the economy picks up. Check out this letter from congressional democrats occupying seats with largely pro-gun constituencies. Or this one, and note that Max Baucus isn't exactly a political lightweight.

-- Tom Aiello

Tom@SnakeRiverBASE.com
SnakeRiverBASE.com

[kelpdiver 2]

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Thanks for posting that.

+1

Further illustration of the value of empirical data.

/Marg

I was anticipating someone whining about the source of the data by now, however. There's a bit of irony in FoxNews reporting about the misuse of data by others.

[rushmc 23]

Just like you

Killing a thread before it even gets started

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[JohnMitchell 16]

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I get the feeling this will be a very quiet thread.

YOU ARE ALL WRONG. GUNS CAUSE CRIME. TURN THEM ALL IN TO ROSIE O'DONELL. GET OVER IT!!!

There, fixed it for ya.

[warpedskydiver 0]

The anti-gun sociopaths are just too busy biting the pillow to bother looking at the TV screen.

All they hear is the words 90% and they are full of overwhelming confidence they are right.

[1969912 0]

Where are the Fox News Channel Derangement Syndrome (FNCDS) folks?

"Once we got to the point where twenty/something's needed a place on the corner that changed the oil in their cars we were doomed . . ."
-NickDG

[jcd11235 0]

The article is crap, and draws conclusions not supported by the data presented. The authors either lack an understanding of basic statistics, or they are intentionally trying to mislead readers by making a false assertion and using smoke and mirror tactics in attempt to support it.

From the article:

In 2007-2008, according to ATF Special Agent William Newell, Mexico submitted 11,000 guns to the ATF for tracing. Close to 6,000 were successfully traced -- and of those, 90 percent -- 5,114 to be exact, according to testimony in Congress by William Hoover -- were found to have come from the U.S.

But in those same two years, according to the Mexican government, 29,000 guns were recovered at crime scenes.

In other words, 68 percent of the guns that were recovered were never submitted for tracing. And when you weed out the roughly 6,000 guns that could not be traced from the remaining 32 percent, it means 83 percent of the guns found at crime scenes in Mexico could not be traced to the U.S.

Out of 29,000 guns recovered from crime scenes, 11,000 were submitted to the ATF for tracing attempts. We cannot assume that none of the 18,000 guns that were not submitted for tracing did not come from, or even could not be traced back to the US. In fact, without knowing how the 11,000 guns that were submitted were selected (i.e. were they selected randomly?) from the 29,000 guns recovered from crime scenes, we can't say much of anything about the other 18,000 guns, except that they were not submitted for tracing.

(Note that 11/29 = 37.93%, not 32%, as the authors claim.)

Of the 11,000 guns that were submitted, nearly 6000 were successfully traced. We cannot assume that none of the 5000 guns that were not successfully traced came from the US, nor can we assume they came from the US in the same proportion as found in the 6000 guns that were successfully traced.

Of the nearly 6000 guns that were successfully traced, 5114 traced back to the US. This is figure, 5114/6000, or ~85.23%, is a meaningful statistic, albeit not a very useful one. It tells us that, out of approximately 6000 guns recovered from crime scenes in Mexico and submitted to the ATF (of the US), and subsequently successfully traced, during the two year period of 2007-2008, 5114, or over 85%, of those guns were traced back to the US.

Without knowing why the ATF received the sample they received, or without knowing the reasons (as they relate to the the different sources of guns recovered from crime scenes in Mexico during 2007-2008) why ~45% of the submitted weapons were not traceable, we cannot draw conclusions about the source of the ~24,000 guns that were not successfully traced with any reasonable level of confidence.

Clinton and others were wrong to claim that 90% (note that 85.23% rounded to one significant figure rounds to 90%) of the weapons used to commit crime in Mexico came from the US. On the other hand, the authors La Jeunesse and Lott are also wrong claiming that "83 percent of the guns found at crime scenes in Mexico could not be traced to the U.S." There is an important difference between could not be and were not. Given the data referenced in the article, we only know that about 20.3% of the guns could not be traced to the US.

It's important to also note that an inability to trace a gun to the US does not necessarily imply that the gun definitely did not come from the US.

Clinton's 90% claim assumes that Mexico randomly selected from 29,000 recovered guns the 11,000 guns submitted to ATF. It also assumes that, of the population of 11,000 guns submitted to ATF, the ~6000 that were successfully traced were effectively a random sample from that population. It is highly unlikely that either assumption is correct.

At the opposite extreme, La Jeunesse and Lott's 17% figure (which should actually be 18% if proper rounding is performed) assumes that, of the 18,000 recovered guns that were not submitted to ATF, none came from the US. It also assumes that, of the ~5000 guns submitted to ATF that could not be traced, none came from the US. It is highly unlikely that either assumption is correct.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[kelpdiver 2]

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The article is crap, and draws conclusions not supported by the data presented. The authors either lack an understanding of basic statistics, or they are intentionally trying to mislead readers by making a false assertion using smoke and mirror tactics in attempt to support it.

Well, it was another case of tit for tat.

They destroyed the false claims being made, but then not content with victory, made up some shit. It always bad when they false simple division tasks.

[rushmc 23]

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It's important to also note that an inability to trace a gun to the US does not necessarily imply that the gun definitely did not come from the US.

WELL, there you have it then. All them there guns came from the US.



You claim crap and then you print crap. Talk about a stretch.



You say someone cant prove there point and then turn around and say YOU dont need to

Got me goin this AM

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[mnealtx 0]

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It's important to also note that an inability to trace a gun to the US does not necessarily imply that the gun definitely did not come from the US.

Bullcrap. The trace goes from the manufacturer, to the distributor, to the gun shop who looks it up in their bound book. If it came up negative on a trace, it wasn't sold in the U.S. and it came from somewhere else.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[rushmc 23]

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It's important to also note that an inability to trace a gun to the US does not necessarily imply that the gun definitely did not come from the US.

Bullcrap. The trace goes from the manufacturer, to the distributor, to the gun shop who looks it up in their bound book. If it came up negative on a trace, it wasn't sold in the U.S. and it came from somewhere else.

What the hell is the matter with you????? If a gun cant be traced then it for damn sure came from the US!!! Right????

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[SkyDekker 1,465]

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WELL, there you have it then. All them there guns came from the US.

That's not what he said in that post. he is dead on with his analysis of the data provided in the article. The article does make conclusions that cannot be supported by the data.

In short, the data presented cannot be used to claim that 90% of guns in Mexico come from the US, however the data can also not be used to claim that 90% of guns in Mexcio did not come from the US.

[jerryzflies 0]

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It's important to also note that an inability to trace a gun to the US does not necessarily imply that the gun definitely did not come from the US.

Bullcrap. The trace goes from the manufacturer, to the distributor, to the gun shop who looks it up in their bound book. If it came up negative on a trace, it wasn't sold in the U.S. and it came from somewhere else.

Aren't you the guy who told us a few years back that you know nothing about statistics?

Nice of you to offer an "expert" opinion on the meaning of the data.

If you can't fix it with a hammer, the problem's electrical.

[nerdgirl 0]

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It's important to also note that an inability to trace a gun to the US does not necessarily imply that the gun definitely did not come from the US.

Bullcrap. The trace goes from the manufacturer, to the distributor, to the gun shop who looks it up in their bound book. If it came up negative on a trace, it wasn't sold in the U.S. and it came from somewhere else.

Mike -

I have guns that are untracable in terms of ownership and transfer before my dad acquired them. Inherited them from my father and grandfather. They were purchased and in my dad's case, some were imported in very different times. The records from when my dad was a *legal* small arms dealer are lost (>40 years ago).

While I doubt that is the case for more than a very few, if any, of the guns recovered in Mexico, I would have thought you would have considered those scenarios.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[nerdgirl 0]

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... Out of 29,000 guns recovered from crime scenes, 11,000 were submitted to the ATF for tracing attempts. We cannot assume that none of the 18,000 guns that were not submitted for tracing did not come from, or even could not be traced back to the US.

...

Note that 11/29 = 37.93%, not 32%, as the authors claim.

...

Of the 11,000 guns that were submitted, nearly 6000 were successfully traced. We cannot assume that none of the 5000 guns that were not successfully traced came from the US, nor can we assume they came from the US in the same proportion as found in the 6000 guns that were successfully traced.

...

At the opposite extreme, La Jeunesse and Lott's 17% figure (which should actually be 18% if proper rounding is performed) assumes that, of the 18,000 recovered guns that were not submitted to ATF, none came from the US. It also assumes that, of the ~5000 guns submitted to ATF that could not be traced, none came from the US. It is highly unlikely that either assumption is correct.

Thanks for taking the time to really pull apart and analyze the reported data (all of which is secondary or tertiary) and the reporter's analysis.

If I'm understanding correctly what you posted, the value is somewhere between 18% & 85% of guns recovered from Mexico (therefore does not include non-recovered guns ... might be higher, might be lower, might be the similar) were transitted (?) or purchased (?) in the US. That is what can be said with confidence based on the report, yes? Or is that incorrect?

From the Fox New article:

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In a remarkable claim, Auturo Sarukhan, the Mexican ambassador to the U.S., said Mexico seizes 2,000 guns a day from the United States -- 730,000 a year. That's a far cry from the official statistic from the Mexican attorney general's office, which says Mexico seized 29,000 weapons in all of 2007 and 2008.

That's an order of magnitude discrepancy.


--- -- --- -- ---


All ya'all who are rallying around anti-gun or pro-gun (the majority in this thread) or whatever rhetoric are mirroring each other. What's wrong with [jdcd11235]'s analysis?

Acknowledging that legally acquired small arms make it into illegal activities does not necessarily imply one is anti-gun. Just like acknowledging one might die skydiving does not make one anti-skydiving.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[mnealtx 0]

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It's important to also note that an inability to trace a gun to the US does not necessarily imply that the gun definitely did not come from the US.

Bullcrap. The trace goes from the manufacturer, to the distributor, to the gun shop who looks it up in their bound book. If it came up negative on a trace, it wasn't sold in the U.S. and it came from somewhere else.

Aren't you the guy who told us a few years back that you know nothing about statistics?

Nice of you to offer an "expert" opinion on the meaning of the data.

Perhaps you'd care to explain what significance statistics has on the accomplishment of a gun trace.

By all means, enlighten us.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[mnealtx 0]

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It's important to also note that an inability to trace a gun to the US does not necessarily imply that the gun definitely did not come from the US.

Bullcrap. The trace goes from the manufacturer, to the distributor, to the gun shop who looks it up in their bound book. If it came up negative on a trace, it wasn't sold in the U.S. and it came from somewhere else.

Mike -

I have guns that are untracable in terms of ownership and transfer before my dad acquired them. Inherited them from my father and grandfather. They were purchased and in my dad's case, some were imported in very different times. The records from when my dad was a *legal* small arms dealer are lost (>40 years ago).

While I doubt that is the case for more than a very few, if any, of the guns recovered in Mexico, I would have thought you would have considered those scenarios.

/Marg

I understand your point - however, we are talking about current military-issue weapons. Additionally, when a gun shop closes, the ATF gets all the yellow forms and bound book records, if I recall correctly.

Seeing as how I have seen serial number checks done on guns back to the range of the 1930's, I don't consider it a large possibility.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706