Swine Flu Over-reaction?

[Pinna 0]

If nothing else I think that this serves as a good example of just how bad it could quickly get globally if something really lethal (militarized or mutated) managed to enter the general population.

[airdvr 210]

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Better safe than sorry.

Me thinks you're in the wrong sport for that adage.

"..cause for conern...not cause for panic..." Barring kids from school is panic induced hysteria.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[jerryzflies 0]

When dealing with a new virus strain, don't you think it better to be over-prepared rather than under-prepared?

Some people early last year underestimated the seriousness of the economic situation (the "R" word). Look where lack of action on that got us.

"A stitch in time saves nine"

If you can't fix it with a hammer, the problem's electrical.

[nerdgirl 0]

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I've been feeling over the last few days that this has become a media-driven event.

Are we over-reacting?

Are local, country, State, federal (e.g., CDC), and international (e.g., WHO) public health services over-reacting? I don't think so.

Is it becoming a media-driven event? Probably. What doesn't today?

Am I over-reacting? I don't think so ... but rarely do individuals self-identify their own reactions as over-reactions or under-reactions.

I've had a couple folks contact me for recommendations on travel to Mexico. Most are just looking for plain-spoken information from someone they trust ... . And I've told both to go ahead; one couples' trip isn't scheduled to December ... what one can say meaningful about pandemic flu risk next December is extremely limited, i.e., very little beyond historical extrapolations.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Shotgun 1]

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This flu has the opposite effect. It kills primarily healthy people age 20-40. (It's technically their immune response that kills them, but same end result.)

I've heard this mentioned several times, but it seems to me that most of the people in the U.S. who are confirmed to have this flu do not fall into that age range. And the one confirmed swine flu death was a child. But I can't seem to find any actual statistics about the age groups that are being affected. I also can't find age stats about the 20 or so confirmed swine flu deaths in Mexico (or any of the suspected cases).

[ryoder 1,590]

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I am not in on how many people worldwide die from the flu. I think the average is 36k in the US.

I just heard that number on the radio this morning.

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[airdvr 210]

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When dealing with a new virus strain, don't you think it better to be over-prepared rather than under-prepared?

Prepared...absolutley. What preparations should we be making?

Tamiflu? Not nearly enough to go around and it doesn't prevent, only shorten.

There is a vaccine. Complications included paralysis.

Other than common sense things as stated from the CDC we are as prepared as we'll ever be.

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Some people early last year underestimated the seriousness of the economic situation (the "R" word).

This isn't a political thread.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[nerdgirl 0]

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There is a vaccine. Complications included paralysis.

Different strain. Iirc, that was an H2N2 strain; this is an H1N1. Different vaccine.
There is no vaccine for the current strain circulating.

You do, perhaps however inadvertantly, illustrate the importance of communicating information.

/Marg

Act as if everything you do matters, while laughing at yourself for thinking anything you do matters.
Tibetan Buddhist saying

[Beachbum 0]

Just heard on the noon news that we now have a confirmed fatality in Houston from it. This was a "toddler" who was sent here from Mexico City via Brownsville though, not a local.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6398202.html


My opinion, yes ... they do oversensationalize on tv news (not just this issue!), but such seems the standard these days. I understand the need to report on this, and provide information (hopefully accurate), but we don't need nearly half of the news broadcast dedicated to it at this point!! Personally, I like to see some variety in the news even when there is something particularly important (or deemed so by media) going on that needs coverage.

As long as you are happy with yourself ... who cares what the rest of the world thinks?

[AndyBoyd 0]

This could certainly become a major problem, but it is not one yet. Remember when the bird flu was going to kill everyone? Before that it was SARS. Everyone needs to take a deep breath and relax right now. Yes, this could be a terrible pandemic. But now, very few people have contracted this disease, and, at least in the USA, symptoms have been mostly mild, with only 1 fatality I am aware of.

IMHO, the media is blowing this way out of proportion. Example: last night, in Chicago, ABC local news started its 10:00 p.m. broadcast with a story about how 1 (!) girl in South Bend, Indiana (2 hours from Chicago) had swine flu, but symptoms were mild. They dispatched a reporter to South Bend, who interviewed some student wandering around the quadrangle at Notre Dame who claimed he had a sore throat. The story took nearly 10 minutes of a 30 minute broadcast.

[kelpdiver 2]

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So in the name of not buying into some "sky is falling" hype, do you think it is worth the risk for those kids to go to school and risk contaminating other kids? Personally, I don't think it is. Better safe than sorry.

I think it would be ridiculous to stop educating for a week every kid who traveled to any country where swine flu (or the potential pandemic du jour).

Since kids are natural disease vectors, let's just shut down all schools forever, just to be safe.

[kelpdiver 2]

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Some economists are estimating that a full blown pandemic will cost the world GDP 5%. The current banking/real estate crises is expected to cost 0.5%. This is as scary as it gets.

Ok, reality. If we had a pandemic to match one that happened 90 years ago when medical care was poorer and we were just concluding WW1, yeah, it could suck. But right now we have a health scare.

You didn't mention how the swine flu epidemic of 1976 turned out.

[NWFlyer 2]

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You didn't mention how the swine flu epidemic of 1976 turned out.

It had some awesome PSAs

"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." -P.J. O'Rourke

[masterblaster72 0]

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Since kids are natural disease vectors, let's just shut down all schools forever, just to be safe.

Yeah, that's exactly my point. No hyperbole there.

Be humble, ask questions, listen, learn, follow the golden rule, talk when necessary, and know when to shut the fuck up.

[jerryzflies 0]

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When dealing with a new virus strain, don't you think it better to be over-prepared rather than under-prepared?

Prepared...absolutley. What preparations should we be making?

Tamiflu? Not nearly enough to go around and it doesn't prevent, only shorten.

There is a vaccine. Complications included paralysis.

Other than common sense things as stated from the CDC we are as prepared as we'll ever be.

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Some people early last year underestimated the seriousness of the economic situation (the "R" word).

This isn't a political thread.

Just an example of what can happen when a situation is misunderstood, ignored, or not taken seriously. Sorry if you found it embarrassing.

If you can't fix it with a hammer, the problem's electrical.

[quade 4]

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Ok, reality. If we had a pandemic to match one that happened 90 years ago when medical care was poorer and we were just concluding WW1, yeah, it could suck. But right now we have a health scare.

91 reported cases in US and 1 death so far in a case where they KNEW the person had swine flu and was under medical care. I think that's a significantly higher ratio than a "normal" flu and to me, that seems quite a bit higher than simply a "health scare."

We'll see how it turns out in the long run, but for now, I think basic precautions are prudent.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[jtnesbitt 0]

Being careful is good, but I think the media is definitely blowing it way out of proportion and it's scaring people.

My coworker just left about 30 minutes ago because his wife called and said their kid came home from school with a runny nose and *possibly* a fever. So they are taking him to the doctors office NOW. Personally, i think thats a terrible idea. Now they are going to subject themselves and their kid to 30 other snotty nosed kids in the same waiting room most likely picking up something while they are there.

"If this post needs to be moderated I would prefer it to be completly removed and not edited and butchered into a disney movie" - DorkZone Hero

[freeflybella 0]

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91 reported cases in US and 1 death so far in a case where they KNEW the person had swine flu and was under medical care. I think that's a significantly higher ratio than a "normal" flu and to me, that seems quite a bit higher than simply a "health scare."

My math skills are limited but if the average flu kills 36,000 per year in the US, that's about 100 per day.

Plus, the one death here was toddler who was infected in Mexico and traveled to Texas for treatment.

Action expresses priority. - Mahatma Ghandi

[lawrocket 3]

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>I also reckon that this will be like the normal flu and kill mainly infants,
>the elderly and immune compromised.

This flu has the opposite effect. It kills primarily healthy people age 20-40. (It's technically their immune response that kills them, but same end result.)

I've heard that but with no data to support it. We've got one reported death in Texas of a 20 month-old. I haven't found anything other than the unattributed statements in the media. (not that viruses cannot or do not often affect adults worse than children - varicella sure does.)

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[millertime24 8]

My friend sent me a picture, and I think I know how all this happened.

Muff #5048

[quade 4]

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My math skills are limited but if the average flu kills 36,000 per year in the US, that's about 100 per day.

That sounds like a lot (and it is), but the way the CDC calculates that number is NOT what most people think it is.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_flu-related_deaths.htm

This is much more serious than a "normal" flu in that nobody has any natural immunities to it and there hasn't been a vaccine created for it.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[434 2]

The fear is based on The 1918 flu pandemic http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

[quade 4]

This just in;
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE53N22820090429
and
http://www.who.int/en/

Will people still be calling it an over reaction when it gets to 6?

What I don't understand is how some people can't recognize a serious threat when they see one. It's almost like they have to finish reading "My Pet Goat" before they're willing to admit there's a issue.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[rehmwa 2]

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It's almost like they have to finish reading "My Pet Goat."

Jeeez, I'm still working through "Go, Dog,Go"

hee hee, 'do you like my hat?' classic

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[TomAiello 26]

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'do you like my hat?'

I do! I do! I like that party hat!

-- Tom Aiello

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