Iranians dare to dream of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad losing his job

[dreamdancer 0]

looking like a very close election...

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If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is worried about losing his job on Friday he is not showing it. Support may be growing for the moderate Mir Hossein Mousavi, his main rival for the Iranian presidency, but the hardliner is sticking to his guns.

On the eve of what looks like the country's most significant election in a decade, Ahmadinejad was in classic attack mode yesterday, using his final campaign rally to lambast Zionism and imperialists and accuse the three other candidates of using "Hitler's methods, to repeat lies and accusations until ­everyone believes them".

In a strange piece of political repetition, Ahmadinejad's slogan, courtesy of Barack Obama, is "Yes We Can". Even opponents admit it would be rash to assume he cannot win four more years. His common touch and defiance of the US and Israel go down well in the countryside and small towns, and with many poor and traditional people everywhere.

"The president is a good man and fears no one," said Mariam Azarmi, a computer expert, as her little boy clung to her black chador while they awaited the start of another noisy rally. "He has made us proud in the world."

Reza Mansouri lives in south Tehran, stronghold of the Basij militia and home to many mullahs. "Ahmadinejad is good for the poor. He's the best of the lot. Mousavi is only good for the rich," said the 53-year-old driver.

But elsewhere in this vast capital, the president is loathed for his mishandling of the economy, squandering billions in oil revenue and depleting the reserves with populist gestures. Unemployment of 17% is a ­disaster, especially for the young. Inflation – officially 24%, though Ahmadinejad claimed in one TV debate it was 14% – has taken a heavy toll.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/10/iran-elections-mahmoud-ahmadinejad

stay away from moving propellers - they bite
blue skies from thai sky adventures
good solid response-provoking keyboarding

[jcd11235 0]

Mousavi offers the most potential w/r/t women's rights. Aside from his promises of reform, his wife is (publicly) campaigning for him, something I believe to be a first in Iran, at least since their revolution.

Women's rights is an issue that requires reform if Iran is to gain the respect of western developed countries. It's nice to see that there is increasing popular support for candidates promoting such reform.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[TomAiello 26]

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Women's rights is an issue that requires reform if Iran is to gain the respect of western developed countries. It's nice to see that there is increasing popular support for candidates promoting such reform.

And, perhaps astonishingly to some, this has all happened without a US invasion.

Can it be that the world doesn't need us to save it?

-- Tom Aiello

Tom@SnakeRiverBASE.com
SnakeRiverBASE.com

[GeorgiaDon 362]

Perhaps in time Iran can get back to where it was in 1953, before a US-led coup (Operation Ajax) ousted the democratically elected government and installed the Shah of Iran, who then went on to lead decades of exceedingly harsh suppression of political freedom through his CIA-trained secret police (called "SAVAK"). Our track record of "nation building" in that part of the world has been anything but stellar.

Don

_____________________________________
Tolerance is the cost we must pay for our adventure in liberty. (Dworkin, 1996)
“Education is not filling a bucket, but lighting a fire.” (Yeats)

[dreamdancer 0]

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Perhaps in time Iran can get back to where it was in 1953, before a US-led coup (Operation Ajax) ousted the democratically elected government and installed the Shah of Iran, who then went on to lead decades of exceedingly harsh suppression of political freedom through his CIA-trained secret police (called "SAVAK"). Our track record of "nation building" in that part of the world has been anything but stellar.

Don

don't forget the british part in ajax

(and then suez)

stay away from moving propellers - they bite
blue skies from thai sky adventures
good solid response-provoking keyboarding

[kelpdiver 2]

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Inflation – officially 24%, though Ahmadinejad claimed in one TV debate it was 14% – has taken a heavy toll.

How pathetic is it when a nation blessed with a great trade balance makes so little use of that gift? A couple of the tiny oil nations get it (Dubai), but these others will be toast when we finish draining the oil.

[SpeedRacer 1]

I wonder if the ones who bash Liberals in this forum will be rooting for the more Liberal candidate to win in the Iranian election.

Speed Racer
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[TomAiello 26]

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Perhaps in time Iran can get back to where it was in 1953, before a US-led coup (Operation Ajax) ousted the democratically elected government and installed the Shah of Iran, who then went on to lead decades of exceedingly harsh suppression of political freedom through his CIA-trained secret police (called "SAVAK"). Our track record of "nation building" in that part of the world has been anything but stellar.

Exactly why we should not be invading foreign countries to remake them in our own image. It wasn't a good idea then and it's not a good idea now.

Plus, it's goddamn expensive, and the return on investment is extremely poor.

Yet somehow still, people wander around calling out the need for the US to invade and re-organize foreign countries.

-- Tom Aiello

Tom@SnakeRiverBASE.com
SnakeRiverBASE.com

[TomAiello 26]

Personally, I wish Mohammed Khatami would run again.

Has anyone besides me noticed that Rafsanjani appears to be an Iranian version of Dick Cheney? He wants to "help" but his aid hurts you so much in the public eyes that it has negative value?

-- Tom Aiello

Tom@SnakeRiverBASE.com
SnakeRiverBASE.com

[miked10270 0]

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Personally, I wish Mohammed Khatami would run again.

Mousavi is running and seems relatively progressive.
Interestingly, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has simply exhorted Iranians to vote "based on their own views and decisions,.. God willing, the best and the most deserving person will be elected...."

I suspect there'll be a run-oo between Mousavi and ahmedinejad with their respective foreign policies being of little importance compared to domestic policies and performance.

I hope Mousavi wins... Because his name is easier to spell and pronounce!

Mike.

Taking the piss out of the FrenchAmericans since before it was fashionable.

Prenait la pisse hors du FrançaisCanadiens méridionaux puisqu'avant lui à la mode.

[TomAiello 26]

I think one of the most interesting things here is that the Iranians do have a functioning democracy, and yet we (meaning most of the American and European observers) don't like it because it doesn't conform to our societal ideals.

I'm shocked to find myself actually admiring the mullahs a little here, in that they have set up the rules of the game and are resisting the temptation to change them mid-stream.

-- Tom Aiello

Tom@SnakeRiverBASE.com
SnakeRiverBASE.com

[SpeedRacer 1]

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I think one of the most interesting things here is that the Iranians do have a functioning democracy, and yet we (meaning most of the American and European observers) don't like it because it doesn't conform to our societal ideals.

I'm shocked to find myself actually admiring the mullahs a little here, in that they have set up the rules of the game and are resisting the temptation to change them mid-stream.

But don't the mullahs get to pick who is and who is not an "appropriate" candidate to run in the election?

Speed Racer
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[TomAiello 26]

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I think one of the most interesting things here is that the Iranians do have a functioning democracy, and yet we (meaning most of the American and European observers) don't like it because it doesn't conform to our societal ideals.

I'm shocked to find myself actually admiring the mullahs a little here, in that they have set up the rules of the game and are resisting the temptation to change them mid-stream.

But don't the mullahs get to pick who is and who is not an "appropriate" candidate to run in the election?

Yes. But the definitions of "appropriate" are broad enough to include people who disagree with them.

-- Tom Aiello

Tom@SnakeRiverBASE.com
SnakeRiverBASE.com

[miked10270 0]

So... After extended polling times (and a VERY fast count):

Ahemdinajad: 62.6%

Mousevi: 34%

Turnout: 85%!!!

While the other candidates may be crying "Foul", I understand that the Iranian voting system is VERY fair and not "fixable".

So, it's Ahmeninajad for another 4 years. The people have spoken (a damn sight more than speak in Britain or The US).

Mike.

Taking the piss out of the FrenchAmericans since before it was fashionable.

Prenait la pisse hors du FrançaisCanadiens méridionaux puisqu'avant lui à la mode.

[likearock 2]

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While the other candidates may be crying "Foul", I understand that the Iranian voting system is VERY fair and not "fixable".

Have I got a bridge for you.

[TomAiello 26]

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While the other candidates may be crying "Foul", I understand that the Iranian voting system is VERY fair and not "fixable".

Have I got a bridge for you.

I don't know. The system has been looked at by outside experts, who all thought it was pretty fair. The franchise is limited, and candidates must be approved, but the actual voting hasn't seemed to be rigged, when examined by non-Iranians.

Just because the results aren't something we like doesn't mean they're rigged. It may just be that the Iranian voters have a different view of what's "good" for their country than you or I might.

-- Tom Aiello

Tom@SnakeRiverBASE.com
SnakeRiverBASE.com

[likearock 2]

http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2009/06/irans_voting_manipulation_indu.html

June 10, 2009
Iran's Voting Manipulation Industry

By Mehdi Khalaji

With Iran's presidential campaign culminating on June 12, all three challengers to incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad are expressing increased concern about the possibility of election fraud and manipulation of the election. Not only are there complaints about regime influence on the campaign, such as biased coverage by state-run television, the voting itself can be manipulated in numerous ways.

Voting Procedures

According to Iranian law, the Interior Ministry administers elections. In each ward or county, the ministry forms an executive committee that consists of the ward or county head, the local head of the National Organization for Civil Registration, the chief prosecutor or his representative, and eight respected local figures. The Guardian Council has the duty of supervising the electoral process at each polling station and has created observation committees with more than 130,000 members. Each candidate has the right to send an observer to each fixed polling station to observe both the voting process and the ballot count.

In Iran, voting follows quite different procedures than those used in most Western countries. For instance, there is no voter registration. Instead, a person's voting eligibility is determined by a "birth certificate" (BC). (Although Iran has recently introduced national identification cards, these are not used for voting.) The BC, issued by the National Organization for Civil Registration, looks like a passport, with pages that can be stamped. Voters can go to any of the more than 60,000 voting stations across the country or around the world, including those in thirty-five U.S. cities. Since there is no requirement to vote near one's residence, voter turnout at a particular voting station, or even in a city, can theoretically exceed the estimated number of eligible voters in that locality. When a person receives a ballot, the BC is recorded and stamped, but there appears to be no verification, either during the voting or after, of the documentation.

Manipulation Mechanisms

Voting can be easily manipulated in several ways:

Collecting birth certificates. In previous elections, reports have surfaced that the Imam Khomeini Committee, a large state charity affiliated with the leader (or, as he insists, supreme leader), Ali Khamenei, "rent" BCs belonging to the poor. It has been alleged that after regular voting hours, those engaged in fraud fill out ballots using the rented BCs. In some elections, polls remained open for many hours after the designated closing time, feeding concern that irregular votes were being cast.

Eligible voters. Relying on birth certificates complicates the calculation of eligible voters. Different government offices give very different estimates: while the Interior Ministry puts the total number of eligible Iranian voters at 46 million, Iran's Center for Statistics claims the number is over 51 million. Not being able to even estimate the number of eligible voters makes it difficult to judge if "ghost" votes have been cast. According to the National Organization for Civil Registration, the number of existing BCs considerably exceeds the number of Iranians. Many BCs are issued as replacements for reportedly lost BCs, and there is little to prevent people from using the duplicate BCs to vote at two different polling stations. Also, some Iranians do not invalidate their relatives' BCs after they die. In the last presidential election, reformist sources announced that more than two million fraudulent BCs may have been used by the Basij militia and others to obtain ballots.

Illiteracy. According to official statistics, the illiteracy rate in Iran is more than 20 percent. Voters are required to write the name of their preferred candidate on the ballot; there are no pictorial symbols, and voters are not allowed to make an "X" to indicate their choice. Since many people are unable to write, the government allows volunteers, mostly affiliated with the Basij, to be inside polling stations to help voters write the name of their preferred candidate. Obviously, these Basij volunteers can easily write in any name they wish.

Mobile polling stations. According to the Ministry of Interior, there will be more than 14,000 mobile ballot boxes for people unable to vote at the nearly 47,000 fixed polling stations (for instance, the infirm, the elderly, and the military); the number of mobile boxes is more than ten times the number used in the previous election. Adequate supervision of the mobile boxes is extremely difficult, creating a situation where no one watches who casts the ballots or is present during the tally.

Counting process. The two-stage counting process presents perhaps the most troubling aspect of the elections. At each polling station, after the end of voting hours, the votes are counted and recorded on Form 22 in the presence of representatives from the candidates, the Interior Ministry, and the Guardian Council. These forms are secret however; the results are not announced to the press or released to the candidates. Instead, in the second stage of the counting process, the forms are sent to the Interior Ministry, where the votes are tallied and published on Form 28, which reports the votes by province or county. But because there is no supervision of the preparation, there is no way to compare Form 28 to Form 22. In other words, it is possible for agents from the Guardian Council or the Interior Ministry to change the vote totals before announcing them. This stage provokes suspicion among candidates as well as independent observers about the accuracy and fairness of the counting.

Validation of the election. The official validation of the election results is a two-stage process. The first stage is validation by the Guardian Council, which is a partisan body that does not bother to conceal its political preference. In the past, the Guardian Council has canceled the voting in some districts where voting problems allegedly occurred, and not surprisingly, these are often districts where reformers do well. The second stage of validation is by Khamenei, who has the constitutional authority to overrule the voters if he so chooses.

In an open letter published on June 7, a group of Interior Ministry employees expressed concern about the ministry's plans to intervene and manipulate the election by various means. They mentioned a fatwa issued by an ayatollah in Qom, which provides ministry officials with a religious justification for manipulating the election in favor of Ahmadinezhad. Some reformist sources such as roozonline.com believe that the fatwa was issued by Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, who is known to be a fervent supporter of Ahmadinezhad and his religious worldview.

The representatives of Mir Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karrobi also sent an open letter, published on June 8, to Ahmad Jannati, the secretary of the Guardian Council, warning about manipulation of the election.

Conclusion

Ahmadinezhad's rivals have no faith that the Interior Ministry will respect the law and conduct a fair election. Mehdi Karrobi and Mir Hossein Moussavi suggested that a "committee for safeguarding the fairness of vote" supervise the election on behalf of the candidates, but the Interior Ministry and the Guardian Council rejected the idea. It is not clear how much voting manipulation will occur on June 12, but it is abundantly clear that Iran's election procedures leave ample opportunity for massive voter fraud.

Mehdi Khalaji is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on the domestic policy of Iran as well as the politics of Shiite groups in the Middle East.

[jerryzflies 0]

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So... After extended polling times (and a VERY fast count):

Ahemdinajad: 62.6%

Mousevi: 34%

Turnout: 85%!!!

While the other candidates may be crying "Foul", I understand that the Iranian voting system is VERY fair and not "fixable".

So, it's Ahmeninajad for another 4 years. The people have spoken (a damn sight more than speak in Britain or The US).

Mike.

Well, did the pundits ever call that one wrong!

If you can't fix it with a hammer, the problem's electrical.

[Darius11 12]

There is blood on the streets of Iran right now. The election was a fruad and the results are untrue.

These are what friends in Iran are posting when they can. Most lines are down.
"To all non-Iranian friends: please help spread the news of the outrage and disgust of the Iranian people with the election results. Unfortunately, the western media is not currently doing a good job of exposing this blatantly fraudulent election. This is not the will of the Iranian people; they are mostly in shock or despair, and the braver ones are being mercilessly beaten on the streets. PLEASE SHARE"


"Here's a status from 5 minutes ago for those who give a shit with whats happening in the Region: In Tehran right now-the regime is beating people with machetes; mobile telecommunication lines are down (how conveniently); and civil protesting has now turned into a blood bath against the people. Some scenes and pictures sent remind you of the Tiananmen massacre. My brother is one of those guys speaking his heart."


"a reporter in Tehran reports: "Some Employees of the Department of Internal Affairs announced that the real election results are as follows: Moosavi (reformist candidate): 19,075,623 votes, Karroobi (reformist candidate) 13,387,104 votes, Ahmadi Nezhad (incumbent) 5,698,417 votes, and Rezaei 3,754,218 votes." This makes a lot of sense to all of us."


I hope the people win for once.

I'd rather be hated for who I am, than loved for who I am not." - Kurt Cobain

[kelpdiver 2]

It was a bit striking reading the initial report where two candidates claimed victory, yet with the current results at 68% for the incumbency.

[likearock 2]

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There is blood on the streets of Iran right now. The election was a fruad and the results are untrue.

Impossible. Haven't you heard? The Iranian voting system is VERY fair and not "fixable". You're probably overly concerned with the fact the government wouldn't allow international observers. No big deal, they're all on the honor system over there.