Your financial predictions for 2010-2012?

[Andy9o8 2]

I predict my 2 kids are going to spend me out of house & home.

[rhaig 0]

ditto on that, but add a wife

--
Rob

[freethefly 6]

Not so sure about 2010 or 2011 but, 2012 adds up to the answer to everything (with a little bit of rearranging).
20+12=32+10 (the 0 and the 1 reversed)=42! WOW, just WOW!
So proud that I finally figured it all out and now I am cluing the world in on this revelation!

"...And once you're gone, you can't come back
When you're out of the blue and into the black."
Neil Young

[Andrewwhyte 1]

Slow modest recovery this year with unemployment remaining stubbornly high this year followed by stagflation next.

[rushmc 23]

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There are a lot of different backgrounds on this board so let's hear thoughts from the 'men/women on the street.'

The market's recovered a bit from mid 8k to mid 10k (I don't count the sub 7k dip- that was pure fear) consumer spending has risen slightly end of this year and unemployment filings have leveled off.

On the other hand wave two of the mortgage resets will begin to take hold mid 2010,

http://tinyurl.com/nnysg4


commercial real estate is starting to get hit hard,

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2009-01-11-commercial-real-estate_N.htm

nation-sates like Dubai are nearly bankrupt,

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE5BD03U20091214

contrarians like James Chanos are calling for China being the next bubble to pop,

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/08/business/global/08chanos.html?adxnnl=1&dbk=&adxnnlx=1262959262-TV1Tdcmf2DYYTiLAlxT1fw

and if earnings don't catch up to stock prices we could see another 20% pull back real quick.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/181148-s-p-500-modestly-overvalued

What are your thoughts for the next two years? Mild steady recovery, full speed ahead, or double-dip W shaped correction?

If we continue the same path energy rates will skyrocket (although some think that is a good thing)

Rate increases are already being asked for for the new wind farms coming on line. To the toon of about 16%. Dont know what they will get.

As the feds push more distribution companies to divest themselves of their transmission systems (which moves regulatory control to FERC and away from state utility boards) wheeling rates (based on capital build and rebuild investment) will force even higher pass through s of electricity costs. This is compounded by tree hugers and carbon tax fears which will not allow companies to build coal fired generation plants further increasing costs because we will be more dependent on higher cost transmission fees.

All of this will do wonders to help the economy rebound huh

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rhys 0]

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nation-sates like Dubai are nearly bankrupt,

http://www.reuters.com/...dUSLDE5BD03U20091214

Ignorance is bliss eh?

Dubai World is a company! A real estate company that got into trouble due the financial crisis.

They have been since bailed out and continue to contribute to the construction of one of the (if not the)most modern, diverse and beautiful cities in the world

Dubai itself remains a very stable and wealthy emirate. The locals here (I'm currently in Dubai) were laughing at a mere comment of Dubai being broke (one i overheard). You will find the emirate is quite the opposite of broke!

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[rhys 0]

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There are a lot of different backgrounds on this board so let's hear thoughts from the 'men/women on the street.'

One thing is for sure, the USA will continue to spend money it has not got, on killing innocent foreign civilians, while a certain few 'make' an absolute 'killing' out of it.

Also the US federal reserve will continue to print money, the Euro will gain even more strength, and China will continue to influence the global economy more than ever.

what does the future hold for the USA financially?

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[Gawain 0]

With the Fed gearing up to stop buying troubled mortgages this spring, I want to know what people think will happen when the next set of 5 year, and 7 year ARMs adjust this year, because I'm hearing and reading bits that this year is going to be heavy for those to adjust. Add to the rising rates resulting from the government not buying any more, what will they adjust to? From 5% to 9%? 11%?

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[tkhayes 348]

I predict that real estate has a lot further to fall, therefore, foreclosures, homelessness and all the stuff that goes with the real estate fall will also increase.

I do see a movement from the larger banks to smaller ones since the large banks are not really interested in helping refinance/restructure, but they might get the message if their customer base starts to exit.

Profits on Wall street will increase, mostly because companies reduce expenses on nasty things like EMPLOYEES, and therefore from the top down, all we will hear is about how well the recovery is going and how well everything is with the Dow above 10K and all that crap. Which only matters if you actually OWN stocks.

China will eventually fall, since no one around the world is buying any/enough of their products. THey too will eventually recover as they are far more resilient that we are.

USA is fairly resilient, so we might fair OK in the long haul (if more regulation in the economy, health care and the tax system take place), but will most likely continue on the delusion that we can run an economy based on making money from money alone. And we will do little or nothing to enhance our manufacturing base and rebuilding the economy in a grass-roots fashion.

USA population will continue to hope for the good ol' days (like 2001-2005) where everyone had excesses of everything and we will continue to work for less with fewer benefits, because SOMEDAY, it will all come back.

Wall St will relish and foster this sort of delusion because that is how they continue to make profits and drive up the stock market at the expense of EVERYTHING else, including their own people and country.

Eventually, we will crash hard again, probably in 5-10 years because we have changed NOTHING significant during the last crash. All we do is try to maintain the systems that got us here.

in 20-50 years, the poor will be so poor and the rich will be so rich, that internal security will become our biggest issue, with the military being used to protect the USA Hierarchy against its own people. A "French Revolution" style event may very well take place. Depends on how much of the military abandons their own ranks to support the people and how many stay on to protect the 'delusion'.

I will probably be dead by then, so who gives a fuck anyway - I'm just in it for the money and me baby......

[rhys 0]

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China will eventually fall, since no one around the world is buying any/enough of their products.

Everybody elses products are made there, including many of the USA's products, Englands products, Australias products and most of the worlds products because China has an endless workforce that is willing to work (hard) for not much at all.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[tkhayes 348]

true, but if eveyrone is depressed economically, then there is no money - no money means no purchases , or at least fewer purchases.

If everyone sees a 30% downturn in spending, then China sees a 30% downturn in output and 30% layoffs, etc.

But you are right, they are used to working hard for little or nothing, hence why they wil recover faster than us; they had less distance to fall.

[rhys 0]

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true, but if eveyrone is depressed economically, then there is no money - no money means no purchases , or at least fewer purchases.

If everyone sees a 30% downturn in spending, then China sees a 30% downturn in output and 30% layoffs, etc.

So you don't think people move from brand name products to less expensive products in times of hardship?

Companies don't move thier manufacturing processes to less expensive alternatives in the same situation?

I bet wallmart fared well during the peak of the financial crisis, while the labelled shops struggled.

China is set to make a killing!

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[tkhayes 348]

a huge amount of what we buy already is made in China, therefore it IS the least expensive brand already.

Unless jobs and money turn around, people will still spend less or stop spending.

Muy prediction is based on more job losses, more foreclosures, and another collapse after the 'artificial recovery' wears off.

Wal-Mart is fairing well yes, but for how long? People on the street still do not really have any more money, Dow Jones or otherwise. No money means eventually the faucet runs dry.

I am surviving as well, but I do not think the (near) future is that good for all of us.

[rhys 0]

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Muy prediction is based on more job losses, more foreclosures, and another collapse after the 'artificial recovery' wears off.

I agree with that for sure, iI was discussing it with my bank manager when he was trying to get me to invest my superannuation a in higher interest/higher risk option. I asked him how much people lost in October 2008 in their 'super' plans, he said the chances of that heppening again were not so great.

I said I am 35 years old and do not anticipate retiring for at least 20 years and anticipate another wall st. crash within 5 years(more likley 2).

He said nothing and signed me up on the 'no risk' plan.

He knows what I know, he just makes more money signing up the idiots!

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a huge amount of what we buy already is made in China, therefore it IS the least expensive brand already.

Unless jobs and money turn around, people will still spend less or stop spending.

Wal-Mart is fairing well yes, but for how long? People on the street still do not really have any more money, Dow Jones or otherwise. No money means eventually the faucet runs dry.

I am surviving as well, but I do not think the (near) future is that good for all of us.

oh so we will all just stop eating, cleaning our clothes, watching tv, buying jeans...

We will just stand there and do nothing?

China will continue to recieve contracts for maufacturing, the less money people have, the less they will pay for stuff, fortunately for China that means that thier profits will increase and American manufacturers will, outsource or decline.

Did you ever wonder how they make that power drill for $15 or or the t shirts for $2?

I'll give you a clue, I bet they were not made in America!

What will you buy when you are broke and need to drill a hole? The power drill with a year garantee (even though you know it is crappy) for $15 or the one for $129?

Living in Australia I can see a bright future, Tourism is up and my income has never been so good.

More and more Chinese, Koreans and other Asians are travelling and jumping out of planes.

Just because America is going down the toilet, does not mean the rest of the world is.

The financial crisis made everyone weary of Americas stability and the facade cannot be upheld forever.

but just keep on kidding yourself that the US is the world police and has the recources to continue the frivilous military spending because you are all about to get a rude wakening!

vhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2Aw0cKmxWQ&feature=autofb

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[tkhayes 348]

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What will you buy when you are broke and need to drill a hole?

you will most likely choose to NOT drill the hole...

[rhys 0]

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you will most likely choose to NOT drill the hole...

so you'll stand there with your finger up you bum and do nothing...

... yep your country 'is' fucked!

Needs are things that have to happen in order to advance, if you choose not to fulfill your needs, then you are setting yourself into a downward spiral.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[Amazon 7]

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you will most likely choose to NOT drill the hole...

so you'll stand there with your finger up you bum and do nothing...

... yep your country 'is' fucked!

Needs are things that have to happen in order to advance, if you choose not to fulfill your needs, then you are setting yourself into a downward spiral.

Rhys Needs

[rhys 0]

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Rhys Needs

You 'need' some new material! if you were Australian that would be a sheep joke!!


you used to be witty, you've changed!

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[Amazon 7]

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Rhys Needs

You 'need' some new material! if you were Australian that would be a sheep joke!!


you used to be witty, you've changed!

I guess its from reading all the nutty posts

[rhaig 0]

wait... I'm confused. I thought the Kiwi's were the sheep fuckers.

--
Rob

[rhys 0]

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wait... I'm confused. I thought the Kiwi's were the sheep fuckers.

That depends on who you talk to, I am a New Zealander (Living in australia).

Australians are the ones that always call kiwis sheep fuckers. this is due to the fact that a few decades ago there were 40 million sheep in NZ to the 3 million people.

In reality New Zealand is a small country where it is not possible to be more then 150km from the ocean/civilisation and in australia one can be 2000km away from the closest sheila and the fly munching desparate outback yobbos would be 100x more likely to stoop to beastiality than thier humble kiwi counterparts.

Joke; a kiwi and an aussie are driving along when they see a sheep with its head stuck in a fence, the kiwi (who is driving) pulls over and says "watch this", he jumps out of the car and 'gives the sheep one' while to aussie sits there watchng. The kiwi gets back in the car and says; "O.K. now it's your turn" so the Aussie gets out and sticks his head in the fence!!!

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[rhys 0]

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Here's something else- analysis of the market rally has been unable to determine where the money is coming from.

bact to the subject at hand here is the next part of the doco on the US national deficit

clicky

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

[Lucky... 0]

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The market's recovered a bit from mid 8k to mid 10k (I don't count the sub 7k dip- that was pure fear) consumer spending has risen slightly end of this year and unemployment filings have leveled off.

Of course you don't count the bottom, we'll just give you a mulligan. sub 7k? Still sugar-coating? It was 6547 as far as I see. Trying to mitigate your guy's good work?

Did you forget about that little GDP thingy that has made an insane recovery?

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm

Oh, and projections will be 4% the 4th Q of 2009.

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and if earnings don't catch up to stock prices we could see another 20% pull back real quick.

http://seekingalpha.com/...-modestly-overvalued

Can you leave out your BS rag sites like seeking alpha? You sound like that other guy on here (Stanley) who's been forecasting a market pop for some time now.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/179913-crony-capitalism-on-obama-s-economic-policies

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What are your thoughts for the next two years? Mild steady recovery, full speed ahead, or double-dip W shaped correction?

Continued slow growth and job reinstatement. Tax increases also. It will take unionization before wages get good again. However, product demand will help.

[Lucky... 0]

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Slow modest recovery this year with unemployment remaining stubbornly high this year followed by stagflation next.

Considering economists haven't fully understood 70's stagflation, I don't see how you can predict it.

[Lucky... 0]

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There are a lot of different backgrounds on this board so let's hear thoughts from the 'men/women on the street.'

One thing is for sure, the USA will continue to spend money it has not got, on killing innocent foreign civilians, while a certain few 'make' an absolute 'killing' out of it.

Also the US federal reserve will continue to print money, the Euro will gain even more strength, and China will continue to influence the global economy more than ever.

what does the future hold for the USA financially?

+1,000