0
Iago

Your financial predictions for 2010-2012?

Recommended Posts

Quote

true, but if eveyrone is depressed economically, then there is no money - no money means no purchases , or at least fewer purchases.

If everyone sees a 30% downturn in spending, then China sees a 30% downturn in output and 30% layoffs, etc.

But you are right, they are used to working hard for little or nothing, hence why they wil recover faster than us; they had less distance to fall.




The money is there, it's just stagnating in the hands of the rich. The only 2 ways to fix this are to:

- Raise taxes

- Deficit spend

If you do the Republican thing and shrug, you're fucked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

...and another collapse after the 'artificial recovery' wears off.



Which is why the artificial deficit spending recovery needs to be replaced with a real recovery tax increase, much like Hoover did in 1932 by raising the top tax brkt from 24% to 63%. It worked. We now have a top brkt of 35%, time to jack it to 50-60%. Garbage like Reagan and GWB insisted on dropping it, now we have another mess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

but just keep on kidding yourself that the US is the world police and has the recources to continue the frivilous military spending because you are all about to get a rude wakening!



Right, we laughed as the USSR went down thinking we were impervious.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
my prediction is that a bunch of people will spout off about what will happen this next 2 years wrt the economy. A bunch of them will be wrong. Some will be right. Some will have followed their own advice and lost tons of money. some will make tons of money.

Beyond that, I cannot predict what is going to happen.
--
Rob

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

Slow modest recovery this year with unemployment remaining stubbornly high this year followed by stagflation next.




Considering economists haven't fully understood 70's stagflation, I don't see how you can predict it.


Economists don't fully understand much. That said stagflation is not that mysterious. It occurs when quantitative easing produces nominal GDP growth that is swamped by structural inflation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

Quote

Slow modest recovery this year with unemployment remaining stubbornly high this year followed by stagflation next.




Considering economists haven't fully understood 70's stagflation, I don't see how you can predict it.


Economists don't fully understand much. That said stagflation is not that mysterious. It occurs when quantitative easing produces nominal GDP growth that is swamped by structural inflation.



Or in simpler words - the combination of a recession and a spike in energy costs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote


Dubai World is a company! A real estate company that got into trouble due the financial crisis.

They have been since bailed out and continue to contribute to the construction of one of the (if not the)most modern, diverse and beautiful cities in the world



Dubai World is a nice corporate shield for the government, one that is about to screw London in particular out of a lot of money.

Who else here is surprised to see Rhys supports slavery? Dubai ain't beautiful to the 100s of thousands of workers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Who else here is surprised to see Rhys supports slavery? Dubai ain't beautiful to the 100s of thousands of workers.



I never said I agreed with the political standpoint of the country, i simply said they are not broke, and that it is a beautiful city. Neither do I pretend to know about the ins and outs of the emirate that i am currently in.

Asthetically it 'is' beautiful. but I have read some disturbing articles on the treatment of the workers here.

Meanwhile you live in a country that was founded with slave labour and racism, and many of the comments posted in these forums will conclude that the mindset of the past has not subsided completely.

I belong a country that was the first in the world to give women the vote. And has looked after its indiginous people and teaches the native language in school to ALL students.

In fact it is compulsory in many tertiary institutes to do a paper in Maori language.

How about you try to see your own faults before trying to belittle others!
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

I once heard an econ prof explain macro econ to someone (over a pitcher of beer). It started out with, "pretty much nobody knows what it's going to do. It's all fucking magic."



:D:D:D
Probably the truest thing every said about econ. If you're right, you get invited to all the cool parties.


yeah... I wasn't listening that closely, but I did hear him say something about "we just try to make better guesses than the next guy".
--
Rob

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote


Economists don't fully understand much. That said stagflation is not that mysterious. It occurs when quantitative easing produces nominal GDP growth that is swamped by structural inflation.



Or in simpler words - the combination of a recession and a spike in energy costs.


No. The combination of recession and repetitive printing of money as an alternative to people actually changing their habits.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I predict Obama will have everyone get a tattooed barcode on their hands or forehead. Everyone who refuses will be lined up in front of his Death Panels.

Oh, and also, Kansas Representative Dennis Moore, who retired in November, will become a highwayman and steal everyone's lupines.
Speed Racer
--------------------------------------------------

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote


How about you try to see your own faults before trying to belittle others!



Why? I don't claim the same high moral ground that you try to. You're lauding a country that is built on luring foreign work, repossessing their passports, and then changing the terms of the deal.

This is 2009 - even in the 19th Century, only the South was sustained by slave labor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Comparing your country's present to another country's past is kind of chickenshit.

Wendy P.
There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Comparing your country's present to another country's past is kind of chickenshit.

Wendy P.


:D

Now that's telling it like it is!!!!

:)
"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
o.k. we'll talk present;

you (USA) are slaughterng the civilians of a foreign countries in the name of a lie, the threat that is posed on you country was much less before the war on terror started.

now you are broke, and will have to try to sustain the idiocy and crime you have created in the middle east. democracy will not be installed, instead a haven for 'extremists' will be grown to an unprecedented level along with an unprecedentd level of hate towards your country from people that have all the right to hate you. They have lost control of their country, thier families (how would you feel?) and I do not blame them for hating you the way they do. you all talk about liberty and freedom yet you applaude the slaughter of innocent human beings and suggest it is O.K. because they 'may' pose a threat to you.

Remember 9/11 was not mastreminded by some cave dwelling family member of you ally. It was masterminded by members of your own country!

New Zealand on the other hand refused to assist the USA on the war on terror for 2 reasons;

1, it was an illegal war

2, It set a precedent for anyone to attack anyone they disliked and felt a threat.

If these reasons are considered unimportant by the USA then what is so wrong if someone comes and begins the slaughter of US citizens on US soil?

You idiots/assholes have created more trouble for this planet than you are willing to realise and it is the USA that is creating more hardship (for its own citizens and foreiners) than any other nation.

It is also making you all broke, while your 'leaders' get extremely rich!

better start learning mandarin!

Have you ever played 'risk' before?
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

with 4M people, it's completely irrelevant.



Illustrative of the arrogance that makes the world hate us. If even symbolic, it's important to have the support of others.

At its peak in July 1942, New Zealand had 154,549 men and women under arms (excluding the Home Guard) and by the war's end a total of 194,000 men and 10,000 women had served in the armed forces at home and overseas. A total of 11,928 New Zealanders, or 0.73% of the 1939 population, lost their lives.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_history_of_New_Zealand_during_World_War_II

Yea, they were insignificant in WWII, a war they got behind; and what was their population then? See, American arrogance to minimize the sacrafice of others via ethnocentric views.

____________________________
MORE RESEARCH______

- 1940 population 1,637,300 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand

- 11,928 died in WWII

- .728% of Kiwi's died

- 1940 US population = 132,122,446 http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/1990s/popclockest.txt

- 416,000 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties


Hell, that last graph did all the math for us:

USA rate of WWII casualty = .32%

New Zealand rate of WWII casualty = .73%

NEW ZEALAND HAD > TWICE THE RATE OF CASUALTY AND YOU HAVE THE FUCKING GALL TO UNDERMINE THEIR VOICE, THEIR PRESENCE IN WARS? DO YOU GET IT, EVEN A LITTLE?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So what you're saying is that even 60 years ago, in a war that has absolutely no bearing on today, they were still irrelevant.

"Ethnocentric views." Could I buy you a dictionary so you could get a clue? New Zealand consists primarily of European immigrants, biased towards England, just like the United States.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

So what you're saying is that even 60 years ago, in a war that has absolutely no bearing on today, they were still irrelevant.



You don't get it, the US lost fewer and a lower % of people per capita than many, mnay other countries, yet the US histopry books and guys like you still think we beat both Germany and Japan when in reality we beat Japan with help and we helped the USSR beat Germany. Italy was mutual and quick. What's next; the American Indians loved us? Love guys who write the history books based upon their egos rather than truth.

As for bearing on today, I was drawing a reference that you called them irrelevant today and established their relevance today as well as then; I'm sorry for you that you're unable to discern a parallel. If you want to try to understand what others mean by, "ugly American" just look at the words you're writing about an ally in one of the most relevant wars in world history, ours died next to theirs and you mock their importance. As far as I know, we've never had a disagreement with the Kiwi's and you call them irrelevant; see why Republicans make poor ambassadors?

Quote

"Ethnocentric views." Could I buy you a dictionary so you could get a clue? New Zealand consists primarily of European immigrants, biased towards England, just like the United States.



1) New Zealand still has a significant Maori population, which is like Polynesian peoples. They celebrate Chinese New Year.

2) Your ideas about ethnocentricity are antiquated at best, actually just wrong

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ethnocentric

- characterized by or based on the attitude that one's own group is superior

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/ethnocentric

- 1. Sociology. the belief in the inherent superiority of one's own ethnic group or culture.

- 2. a tendency to view alien groups or cultures from the perspective of one's own.




I understand your thinking is limited to white/black and that skin color determines ethnicity or that origin 100's of years ago means there will be no diversion from cultural ethnicity, I do understand Republican thinking as primordial. However, it is you who thinks ethnicity is determined by origin 100's of years ago as unchanging and that of skin color.

Since ethnicity is heavily tied to culture, are you going to say American ethnicity/culture is anything like New Zealand ethnicity/culture? Did the Kiwis oppress a race/races of people like the US did? NO. Do the Kiwis have such a depraved HC / social system that they selectively dole out who gets medical care? NO. You can't have it both ways; defame New Zealand for being so far out there and CULTURALLY DIFFERENT FOR HAVING CRADLE-TO-GRAVE, yet culturally the same, as part of their population derrived from the same place some of the US did 100's of years ago. Furthermore, blacks = 13% of the US as well as Mexican/Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic at 15+%, Asians at 4% and then others. So to say we are even racially European as a rule is yet another Republican falacy. But I won't stop you, as you think America runs the world. Your party's corporate love has assured that China rules the world.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, your knowledge and acknowledgement of new zealand history astounds me.;)

One just has to look at the battle of Gallipoli (ww1) to see how a small population can make a big difference. if it wasn't for the drunken english officers i'm sure they would have had even more success.

You are also right about the corporate greed propping up chinas strength.

If US manufacturers had kept employing americans, and dare i say it, the government made sure they did so, then maybe america wouldn't be in the shit right now.

The neo con right wingers in here are strong advocates for corporatons doing as they please and anti government regulation, but can't seem to put 2 and 2 together about the unemployment problems the USA is facing.

Just because the US government is corrupt, does not mean that government regulation is a bad Idea, it just means USA needs to grow a spine and make thier leaders accountable for thier actions.

If my prime minister is in a car that is speeding, it is just as likely to get a speeding ticket than any other, just as much as if they buy a new home they will be askedwhere they got the money from.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, then the world will see peace." - 'Jimi' Hendrix

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Quote

So what you're saying is that even 60 years ago, in a war that has absolutely no bearing on today, they were still irrelevant.



You don't get it, the US lost fewer and a lower % of people per capita than many, mnay other countries, yet the US histopry books and guys like you still think we beat both Germany and Japan when in reality we beat Japan with help and we helped the USSR beat Germany. Italy was mutual and quick. What's next; the American Indians loved us? Love guys who write the history books based upon their egos rather than truth.



No, you won't accept it. If FDR had accepted America's desire to avoid the war, we could have continued to supply oil to Japan and it would have taken the entire South Pacific. Then there would have been no attack on Pearl, no entrance into the European conflict.

If loss rate is your metric (you always pick lame ones), then the Polish Jews are probably #1. The vast majority died. But did they have any bearing on the conclusion of the war? Unfortunately, not a bit. Quantity matters much more.

Do you think Dubya stayed up at night, worried that the Kiwis weren't going to help in Iraq? He barely cared what the UN thought. NZ wasn't even an afterthought.

Quote


1) New Zealand still has a significant Maori population, which is like Polynesian peoples. They celebrate Chinese New Year.



So does San Francisco, which has more Chinese people than that entire country does. NZ is whiter than America.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

0