What if?

[Hooknswoop 19]

OK, random “what if?” thought:

What if the US government knew that there would be a major earth ‘event’ in the next 4-6 years? How would they prepare?

Derek V

[JohnnyD 0]

Form a committee to enlist a study.

[quade 4]

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OK, random “what if?” thought:
What if the US government knew that there would be a major earth ‘event’ in the next 4-6 years? How would they prepare?

Well, the very first thing they'd have to deal with are the planetary disaster deniers claiming it's all just a scam and "Earth Ark" was just a scheme by the VP of the previous administration to make a buck.

Of course, this is going to fail wildly and the only survivor is going to be a baby that gets blasted into space on a rocket and end up on another world where he becomes Superman.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

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OK, random “what if?” thought:

What if the US government knew that there would be a major earth ‘event’ in the next 4-6 years? How would they prepare?

Derek V

Need more specifics.

How tight of a timeframe - within a day, week, month or...?

How tight of an area - West Coast, SoCal, LA Basin, Pamona?

How solid of a predicition - 100%? less?

Because they say there is a good chance of a serious quake on the west coast within the next 10-15 years.

They are doing a lot of "Quake-proofing" out there too. Although most of it is in reaction to damage from previous quakes, knowing that more are inevitable.

The problem is the reliabilty of the prediction. Look at the Gulf/East coast and hurricanes. A lot of people don't evacuate because they don't believe they are going to get hit or how bad the storm will be.

And the predictions are wrong just enough for people to justify that behavior.

In reality, a 20 minute warning would be enough for the vast majority of the people to reach a place of safety and to shut off electricity and gas (natural and liquid) pipelines. Although the damage would still happen, the injuries and the worst of the "after damage" from fires would be prevented.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[quade 4]

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Need more specifics.

Let's say it was something like THIS.

Now, that's not a planet killer, but:

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A later, more refined NASA estimate was 880 megatons.[2] The impacts which created the Barringer Crater or the Tunguska event are estimated to be in the 3–10 megaton range[16] The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons.

So, pretty fuggin' big.

We'd know the date and as time got closer and more refined we'd even know the impact area. Looking at the graphic of the possible areas affected, let's say it hit somewhere in the middle, maybe 100 to 200 miles west of Los Angeles, but still well within the range of pretty much leveling everything on the west coast.

Ok, specific enough?

What do you think the government would do? Try to move the people? Try to cover it up (in this particular case, not even close to being possible BTW).

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[ryoder 1,590]

1. Pols would frantically enact laws prohibiting it.

2. TSA would immediately begin strip searching passengers for no apparent reason, (as per SOP).

3. GOP and Joe Lieberman would call for preemptive military action.

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[lawrocket 3]

First:
If this year, for example, George W Bush would be blamed. As would Halliburton, the baking industry, and the petrochemical industry. In ten years they may be blaming Obama.

There would be those who would seek to not only to refute the blame on Bush but may even question whether the entire Anarctic ice shelf is going to slide into the ocean and ca_se a worldwide tsunami if we font stop driving SUV's eating animal flesh while investing trillions in the systematic razing of the first world industial base. Others may agree and claim that it is God's will because he hates fags. I personally think Sterculius, Roman God of Feces, is going to take a methane laden dump.

In all seriousness there will be debate on effectiveness versus cost based on certainty. Some will argue for more proof. Others will say risk is enough.

Personally. I'd get Dr. Strangelove.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

Okay, I misread the OP and thought "Quake" not anything else.

A real (complete) coverup probably wouldn't happen. There's no way a secret of that magntiude could be kept.
There's a chance it would be dismissed as a lunatic fringe conspiracy theory for a while, but I'd still bet the truth would come out in the end (in time? good question).

Take the asteroid you linked. It would be nice to think that the gov't would take the proper action, develop a space vehicle that would move it to a safe orbit (easy if done right away, harder and harder as it gets closer). In fact, Russia is doing just that.

But my faith in gov't makes me believe that they'd wait until it was too late. Then they'd go into panic mode.
The smart folks would evacuate weeks or months ahead of time, but there would be a lot who wouldn't (or to a certain degree couldn't). Total chaos in the evac zone, getting worse until the end.

And of course there would be those who wouldn't believe it was real and would refuse to leave, and then scream loudest for rescue afterwards (if they managed to survive - there would be survivors)

I tend to be a little cynical about this, but after seeing hurricanes hit the southeast coasts for my entire life, I don't have a lot of faith in human nature.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[billvon 3,009]

>maybe 100 to 200 miles west of Los Angeles

1) I don't think you could get anything like that range of certainty until very near collision time. (After all, that sort of accuracy would have to be 130,000 times greater to predict impact location within 100 miles than to predict an earth impact.) Which hemisphere would probably be the best we could do.

2) Why do hypothetical meteors, floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, pestilences of Biblical proportions and escaped monsters always seem to occur close to LA? Why not Bugscuffle, TN or Boring, OR?

>What do you think the government would do?

Realistically, probably nothing. Not knowing the impact point until too late, you could wind up killing more people through panic than through the threat represented by the meteor.

[quade 4]

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2) Why do hypothetical meteors, floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, pestilences of Biblical proportions and escaped monsters always seem to occur close to LA? Why not Bugscuffle, TN or Boring, OR?

I dunno man! I didn't make the graphic, but if you consider the line as a bell curve . . . whammo . . . LA is toast (if it ever actually happens).

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[kelpdiver 2]

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2) Why do hypothetical meteors, floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, pestilences of Biblical proportions and escaped monsters always seem to occur close to LA? Why not Bugscuffle, TN or Boring, OR?

No Hollywood actor wants to go there, and no one cares if TN gets destroyed. It has to be in LA, where millions would cheer its destruction.

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>What do you think the government would do?

Realistically, probably nothing. Not knowing the impact point until too late, you could wind up killing more people through panic than through the threat represented by the meteor.

Who thinks it's equally likely that the Russian attempt would kill us all rather than let the asteroid narrowly miss Earth.

If you knew the west coast was going to get hit in 4 years time, I think it would be practical to make a serious effort to relocate key infrastructure and arrange for the people to all get to high ground (is east of the Sierra enough, or do we have to go to Colorado?). But as you write, it's unlikely you could be certain where the impact zone would be, and certainly not 4 years out.

[jcd11235 0]

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Why do hypothetical meteors, floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, pestilences of Biblical proportions and escaped monsters always seem to occur close to LA? Why not Bugscuffle, TN or Boring, OR?

Or, outside the US, such as in Fucking, Austria? (No offense to my Fucking friends intended.)

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[Royd 0]

Hopefully, they would enact an alcohol subsidy, so that those who couldn't really afford it, could get in on the fun, of the Asteroid/Earthquake/Tsunami/Volcano party.

[rushmc 23]

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OK, random “what if?” thought:

What if the US government knew that there would be a major earth ‘event’ in the next 4-6 years? How would they prepare?

Derek V

They wouldn't. Despite which party, the gov would not want to waste a good disaster.

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[masterrig 1]

Probably, get the underground bunkers finished in time. Like the one under Cheyenne Mt. and others located in various places in this country. Allowing only strategic political figures and the filthy rich.


Chuck

[Erroll 80]

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..Why not Bugscuffle, TN

And here I thought you made that up.






Ok, so I had some time on my hands.

[Hooknswoop 19]

What about:

Enlisting Hollywood's aid? Get people used to the idea of a major event with disaster movies. Hollywood as worked with the government before.

Derek V

[rehmwa 2]

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OK, random “what if?” thought:

What if the US government knew that there would be a major earth ‘event’ in the next 4-6 years? How would they prepare?

Derek V

Politicians would immediately make hay with it to advance their personal and partisan efforts. In this case, use it as justification for governement health care and carbon taxes. On the other side, use it to start rebalancing the mix of party representation in Congress.

Both parties will agree that the event will require immediate and large tax increases and congressional pay raises.

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[GeorgiaDon 362]

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...it's unlikely you could be certain where the impact zone would be, and certainly not 4 years out.

Bill Cole knows.

But he's not sayin'.

_____________________________________
Tolerance is the cost we must pay for our adventure in liberty. (Dworkin, 1996)
“Education is not filling a bucket, but lighting a fire.” (Yeats)

[billvon 3,009]

>Bill Cole knows. But he's not sayin'.

Oh, Bill Cole's been sayin' quite a bit. I think we are up to the End of the World version 3.

[happythoughts 0]

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...it's unlikely you could be certain where the impact zone would be, and certainly not 4 years out.

Bill Cole knows.

But he's not sayin'.

That's not true. He gives us the absolutely, unequivocal, Biblically-true, one-time date... about twice a year.


"The new date for the end of the world is..."

[happythoughts 0]

Food - most cities only keep a 3-day supply.

Based on what happens in Calif about every 5 years,
the govt has very little control over the population.

They just wait until the fires burn out and there is no
more goods to steal. Then, they claim they have restored calm.

Survivalists believe that they will be respected and raised to a position of leadership.
They will be pleased for about 2 weeks.

[riddler 0]

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What if the US government knew that there would be a major earth ‘event’ in the next 4-6 years? How would they prepare?

This being the U.S. government, they would probably find the nearest deep cave, and go hide there until it's over. I doubt they care that much about the people.

Of course, when it's over, they would come out and preach about how they saved everyone to try to win votes.

Can you tell I'm jaded?

Trapped on the surface of a sphere. XKCD

[riddler 0]

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The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons.

Good point - people talk about things like asteroids, nuclear war, earthquakes, etc being cataclysmic events. But IMO the most frequent planet-changing scenarios are large volcanoes - it wouldn't take long for all life on one continent to die from a big eruption, and the other continents might do only a little better. Restoration of vegetation to human-sustainable levels would take years.

Trapped on the surface of a sphere. XKCD

[kelpdiver 2]

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The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons.

Good point - people talk about things like asteroids, nuclear war, earthquakes, etc being cataclysmic events. But IMO the most frequent planet-changing scenarios are large volcanoes - it wouldn't take long for all life on one continent to die from a big eruption, and the other continents might do only a little better. Restoration of vegetation to human-sustainable levels would take years.

I don't recall a big die off happening after 1883. Nor after Pompei or Mt St. Helens. Has there ever been a planet changing eruption?

When it happens, I'll take my arsenal and head for the Mormon temple. They're taught to keep rather large stocks of food and if they're as good as my grandmother at doing so, I'll be set for some time.