The Myth of Big-Time Gun Trafficking

[SkyDekker 1,465]

Ohhh cool, I can play that one too:

"U.S. Defense Department shipments to Latin America, known and tracked by the U.S. State Department as "foreign military sales."

"Weapons ordered by the Mexican government, tracked by the State Department as 'direct commercial sales.'"

[mnealtx 0]

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Turns out this number of "90% from the US" might be true.

Wanted to touch back on this with some new info:

From El Universal, a Mexican news site (translated via babelfish):

"From year 2007 an annual increase of the seizures of arms on the part of the Sedena, and the information is being registered significant sample that in 2010 the securings, that added 83 thousands 613, grew 83% with respect to the seized thing in 2009, when 45 thousands 630 were seized. "

That's a total of 129,243 weapons collected by Mexico during 09/10.

How many were submitted to ATF for tracing?

29,284 - some 70% of which (20,499) were traceable.

22.6% submitted for tracing, 15.8% traced.

Looks like we can call the 90% myth....busted.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[quade 4]

Quote

Quote

Turns out this number of "90% from the US" might be true.

Wanted to touch back on this with some new info:

From El Universal, a Mexican news site (translated via babelfish):

"From year 2007 an annual increase of the seizures of arms on the part of the Sedena, and the information is being registered significant sample that in 2010 the securings, that added 83 thousands 613, grew 83% with respect to the seized thing in 2009, when 45 thousands 630 were seized. "

That's a total of 129,243 weapons collected by Mexico during 09/10.

How many were submitted to ATF for tracing?

29,284 - some 70% of which (20,499) were traceable.

22.6% submitted for tracing, 15.8% traced.

Looks like we can call the 90% myth....busted.

JR, is it possible you two are talking about two different things?

Traceable isn't the same thing as from.

If a gun was made in the US, it's from the US. If a gun was imported into the US and then smuggled into Mexico, that would, in at least some sense of the word, also mean it's from the US.

I don't think it's "myth busted" as much as "claim not clearly defined."

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[GeorgiaDon 362]

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22.6% submitted for tracing, 15.8% traced.

Looks like we can call the 90% myth....busted.

Perhaps, but without knowing why the rest were not submitted, are you making assumptions that they did not originate in the US? I'm curious about why such a small percentage was submitted. Were they a random sample? Then you could extrapolate to the whole sample. Were most guns rendered untraceable in some way? If so, you can't tell much of anything from the data. If the 29,284 guns were the whole sample of what was potentially traceable, then about 70% were traced by the ATF. Not 90%, but still a high percentage. If on the other hand the 29,284 were the guns the Mexican authorities already suspected came from the US, the sample is too biased to be meaningful.

Don

_____________________________________
Tolerance is the cost we must pay for our adventure in liberty. (Dworkin, 1996)
“Education is not filling a bucket, but lighting a fire.” (Yeats)

[mnealtx 0]

Quote

Quote

Quote

Turns out this number of "90% from the US" might be true.

Wanted to touch back on this with some new info:

From El Universal, a Mexican news site (translated via babelfish):

"From year 2007 an annual increase of the seizures of arms on the part of the Sedena, and the information is being registered significant sample that in 2010 the securings, that added 83 thousands 613, grew 83% with respect to the seized thing in 2009, when 45 thousands 630 were seized. "

That's a total of 129,243 weapons collected by Mexico during 09/10.

How many were submitted to ATF for tracing?

29,284 - some 70% of which (20,499) were traceable.

22.6% submitted for tracing, 15.8% traced.

Looks like we can call the 90% myth....busted.

JR, is it possible you two are talking about two different things?

I'm not JR - kindly try to keep straight whom you're replying to.

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Traceable isn't the same thing as from.

If a gun was made in the US, it's from the US. If a gun was imported into the US and then smuggled into Mexico, that would, in at least some sense of the word, also mean it's from the US.

Your 'imported and smuggled' weapon would still have an ATF record from when it was imported.

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I don't think it's "myth busted" as much as "claim not clearly defined."

That *was* what was claimed, at least initially.

California Sen. Dianne Feinstein said at a Senate hearing: "It is unacceptable to have 90 percent of the guns that are picked up in Mexico and used to shoot judges, police officers and mayors ... come from the United States."

William Hoover, assistant director for field operations at the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, testified in the House of Representatives that "there is more than enough evidence to indicate that over 90 percent of the firearms that have either been recovered in, or interdicted in transport to Mexico, originated from various sources within the United States."

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[mnealtx 0]

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22.6% submitted for tracing, 15.8% traced.

Looks like we can call the 90% myth....busted.

Perhaps, but without knowing why the rest were not submitted, are you making assumptions that they did not originate in the US? I'm curious about why such a small percentage was submitted. Were they a random sample? Then you could extrapolate to the whole sample. Were most guns rendered untraceable in some way? If so, you can't tell much of anything from the data. If the 29,284 guns were the whole sample of what was potentially traceable, then about 70% were traced by the ATF. Not 90%, but still a high percentage. If on the other hand the 29,284 were the guns the Mexican authorities already suspected came from the US, the sample is too biased to be meaningful.

Don

I doubt it was a random sample, but as claimed in the more recent news articles, the fact that many of the would not be traceable by ATF as they were full-auto.

For info: Civilians cannot buy a full-auto weapon manufactured since 1984. Anything manufactured since then can only be sold to the government, the military, or LE.

Pre-1984 full-auto weapons command a VERY high premium (in the tens of thousands of dollars) and require a myriad of paperwork and licensing before the sale, and they are aggressively tracked by the ATF.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[SkyDekker 1,465]

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I doubt it was a random sample, but as claimed in the more recent news articles, the fact that many of the would not be traceable by ATF as they were full-auto.

Right, so you are debunking your own "evidence". Just because they are not tracable, does not mean they are ot from the US.

When one of the myriad of the US gun manufacturers sells to the Mexican government and those guns end up on the street. Then, those guns may not be tracable, but they are still from the US. I agree they were not smuggled across the border per se, but they are still from the US.

[Bertt 0]

A CNN anchor made the point this week that the Mexican army buys weapons from the U.S., so when a soldier joins a drug gang, he takes his weapon with him, and the gang now has another US made weapon.

You don't have to outrun the bear.

[Gravitymaster 0]

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A CNN anchor made the point this week that the Mexican army buys weapons from the U.S., so when a soldier joins a drug gang, he takes his weapon with him, and the gang now has another US made weapon.

Well then clearly the Mexican Police need to be disarmed. I can't think of a better way to keep guns out of the hands of criminals. Perhaps background checks would be effective. Oh, wait.

[Gravitymaster 0]

I don't pay much attention to gun threads but as I understand it, the only weapons that are submitted for tracing are those which the Mexicans think came from the US. So AK47's and other weapons that aren't made in the US are not submitted. If that's true, then it would appear that a relatively small percentage are suspected by Mexico to have come from the US. Nobody has talked about the number that are coming from Russia and China, particularly given their increasing presence in SA.

[mnealtx 0]

Exactly.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[kelpdiver 2]

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I doubt it was a random sample, but as claimed in the more recent news articles, the fact that many of the would not be traceable by ATF as they were full-auto.

Right, so you are debunking your own "evidence". Just because they are not tracable, does not mean they are ot from the US.

it's amazing that you try to turn this on its own head.

The claim made repeatedly is that > 90% of these guns are coming from the US. Clearly there is no actual evidence to support this when < 15% are even examined. Yet it's mnealtx's burden to prove to you that the other 85% are definitely not american? You seemed to have glossed over the full auto issue as well.


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There is a story cropping up on the news lately that the ATF has been releasing a stream of guns into the trafficking lanes with hopes of tracing them up the druglord command structure. Another bravo move by our own gastapo that appears to have resulted in a couple of them being used in a border cop killing. Mind you, this is a recent program, so it has no bearing on the 90% conversation.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

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The claim made repeatedly is that > 90% of these guns are coming from the US.

Correct, that appears to be the claim, followed by that the majority of those come from US gun stores. I agree that the second part of that claim is easily debunked. The majority do NOT come from US gun stores.

This however does not mean that 90% of the guns did not originate in the US. That is still very much possible. The tracing argument and full auto etc has no bearing on this part of the argument. It simply doesn't establish anything relevant to the first part of the statement.

The link JR posted ot the article on foxnews.com claims that your government is very aware that many guns they legally sell to Mexico end up on the streets. Those M16's would not be tracable, but they are still from the US. (But clearly not from a US gun store)

[mnealtx 0]

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The link JR posted ot the article on foxnews.com claims that your government is very aware that many guns they legally sell to Mexico end up on the streets. Those M16's would not be tracable, but they are still from the US. (But clearly not from a US gun store)

No. If you're going to argue the point, at least try to do it from an honest position.

From the OP:

"Large-scale traffickers, these suits claim, purchase guns in big batches from corrupt or irresponsible dealers, especially those operating in states with weak gun control laws. These guns are then moved to places with stricter laws, where they are sold, supposedly at high markups, to criminal buyers. "

They are NOT talking about gov't to gov't transfers.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[SkyDekker 1,465]

Do you really read what people write?

I already said that I agree that these weapons are not being bought in gun stores in the US and smuggled over the border.

The original claim by your president is quoted in the article linked by JR and reads:

"More than 90 percent of the guns recovered in Mexico come from the United States,

many from gun shops that line our border," President Obama said in February 2009.

When you read that, do you see the two parts of the claim? Do you understand how the claim is not that 90% are coming from gun-stores in the US?

My position is perfectly honest. Yours appears to be based on a mis-read or mis-understanding.

[rushmc 23]

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Do you really read what people write?

I already said that I agree that these weapons are not being bought in gun stores in the US and smuggled over the border.

The original claim by your president is quoted in the article linked by JR and reads:

"More than 90 percent of the guns recovered in Mexico come from the United States,

many from gun shops that line our border," President Obama said in February 2009.

When you read that, do you see the two parts of the claim? Do you understand how the claim is not that 90% are coming from gun-stores in the US?

My position is perfectly honest. Yours appears to be based on a mis-read or mis-understanding.

While I see your point, one has to remember that the point of the stories that state guns come from the US, are meant to enhance the arugument for stricter gun control laws enforces against the civian population. But here, gov to gov transfers are used to try and inflate the numbers to make a stronger case for limiting gun sales

That is my take on this anyway

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[SkyDekker 1,465]

And I agree that part of the argument is not tenable. Nor do I think that what people do with legally purchased guns is the responsibility of gun store owners. Some of this stuff is just the price of the 2nd Amendment.

[rushmc 23]

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And I agree that part of the argument is not tenable. Nor do I think that what people do with legally purchased guns is the responsibility of gun store owners. Some of this stuff is just the price of the 2nd Amendment.

Damn

We agree

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rushmc 23]

Kenneth Melson, the acting director of the Bureau of Tobacco, Alcohol and Firearms (ATF), is expected to step down in the wake of the “Fast and Furious” gun-running scheme in which weapons were sold to Mexico’s drug cartels.


Kenneth Melson
Melson, who has been acting director since April 2009, is likely to resign within the next couple of days, says CNN.

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rushmc 23]

On another note, I do not buy the story line on this one. It seems so totally incompetent and ridicules a plan that anyone with half a brain would not do it.

Just think about this. Had no agent been killed (and that is where the headlines came from) where would this have plan taken them? Can anyone tell me a purpose to this plan that makes more sense than the story given? Please?

And maybe, just maybe, we are dealing with the government. Who, it seems, in their own minds can do no wrong

But....

I dont get it, I just dont get it........

But, if you look at the first few lines of the op

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In recent decades, advocates of gun control have taken their cause to court, bringing lawsuits that charge the gun industry with negligence because of how it distributes firearms. Large-scale traffickers, these suits claim, purchase guns in big batches from corrupt or irresponsible dealers, especially those operating in states with weak gun control laws. These guns are then moved to places with stricter laws, where they are sold, supposedly at high markups, to criminal buyers.

Advocates argue that gun manufacturers and distributors are aware of these illegal practices and could stop them, if they chose to, by refusing to supply guns to the problematic dealers.

I think the real reason for this plan becomes a bit clearer.

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[DanG 1]

Can you make your theory clearer by just saying what it is? I don't get what you're implying.

- Dan G

[SkyDekker 1,465]

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In recent decades, advocates of gun control have taken their cause to court, bringing lawsuits that charge the gun industry with negligence because of how it distributes firearms. Large-scale traffickers, these suits claim, purchase guns in big batches from corrupt or irresponsible dealers, especially those operating in states with weak gun control laws. These guns are then moved to places with stricter laws, where they are sold, supposedly at high markups, to criminal buyers.

Advocates argue that gun manufacturers and distributors are aware of these illegal practices and could stop them, if they chose to, by refusing to supply guns to the problematic dealers.

This is very similar to the tobacco smuggling scheme I discussed earlier in this thread.

[mnealtx 0]

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Can you make your theory clearer by just saying what it is? I don't get what you're implying.

They were trying to make a case that most of the guns where coming from straw purchases in order to justify more/stricter gun control laws.

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[DanG 1]

So the government was supplying guns to Mexican drug gangs in order to create evidence that stricter gun control was needed?

Sounds a little far fetched, unless I don't understand the premise.

- Dan G

[rushmc 23]

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So the government was supplying guns to Mexican drug gangs in order to create evidence that stricter gun control was needed?

Sounds a little far fetched, unless I don't understand the premise.

Supplying? No.

Allowing would be a better term

Even forcing as retailers were being told to sell even when they (the retailers) told the ATF what was going on

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln