Earth's Mantle Affects Long-Term Sea-Level Rise Estimates

[StreetScooby 5]

Thought I'd post this. Interesting article. I think we can all agree that continuing to dump large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere is not a good idea. Some of us can agree that "models" are not science. An even smaller subset(?) will agree that having government policies based upon said "models", especially considering those policies will do nothing towards solving the problem and give the government more power over our lives, cannot be justified.

Earth's Mantle Affects Long-Term Sea-Level Rise Estimates

Quote

Central to Moucha's argument is the fact that viscous mantle flows everywhere, all the time. As a result, it's nearly impossible to find what he calls "stable reference points" on Earth's surface to accurately measure global sea-level rise. "If one incorrectly assumed that a particular margin is a stable reference frame when, in actuality, it has subsided, his or her assumption would lead to a sea-level rise and, ultimately, to an increase in ice-sheet melt," says Moucha, who joined SU's faculty in 2011.

We are all engines of karma

[jgoose71 0]

So you are telling me that the Earth's constantly moving tectonic plates might also have an effect on the sea level?

Next thing you know, you are going to be telling me the earth is round....

"There is an art, it says, or, rather, a knack to flying. The knack lies in learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss."
Life, the Universe, and Everything

[kelpdiver 2]

jgoose71

So you are telling me that the Earth's constantly moving tectonic plates might also have an effect on the sea level?

Next thing you know, you are going to be telling me the earth is round....

It's a meaningful detail when talking about the 'rising sealines' on the Eastern Seaboard, with the tectonic effect appearing to be more significant than the absolute change in the water.

[StreetScooby 5]

Quote

It's a meaningful detail...

I was pretty surprised that anyone even thought of asking that question. Very relevant in the overall picture, IMO.

We are all engines of karma

[lawrocket 3]

kelpdiver

***So you are telling me that the Earth's constantly moving tectonic plates might also have an effect on the sea level?

Next thing you know, you are going to be telling me the earth is round....

It's a meaningful detail when talking about the 'rising sealines' on the Eastern Seaboard, with the tectonic effect appearing to be more significant than the absolute change in the water.

Post-glacial rebound is a very big deal along the eastern seaboard and especially in the Gulf states. Meanwhile, sea level in the Pacific Northwest is dropping as measured by gauges because the land is rising. Post-glacial rebound. The Black Sea has a rising sea level. Yep. The Black Sea.

[Url]http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/[/url]

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[skiskyrock 0]

lawrocket

Post-glacial rebound is a very big deal along the eastern seaboard and especially in the Gulf states. Meanwhile, sea level in the Pacific Northwest is dropping as measured by gauges because the land is rising. Post-glacial rebound. The Black Sea has a rising sea level. Yep. The Black Sea.

[Url]http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/[/url]

Why is this at all surprising to you?

[livendive 8]

Looking at that map, it appears the vast majority of measuring points around the US indicate a rising sea level (sinking land level). I only see two points in the Pacific Northwest where the converse appears true.

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[livendive 8]

StreetScooby

An even smaller subset(?) will agree that having government policies based upon said "models", especially considering those policies will do nothing towards solving the problem and give the government more power over our lives, cannot be justified.

Part of a government's role is to plan for an unknown future. I know of no reasonable adults who would agree that throwing darts to guess at that future is a wiser course of action than using the best models available.

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[GeorgiaDon 379]

Quote

Post-glacial rebound is a very big deal along the eastern seaboard and especially in the Gulf states. Meanwhile, sea level in the Pacific Northwest is dropping as measured by gauges because the land is rising. Post-glacial rebound. The Black Sea has a rising sea level. Yep. The Black Sea.

Here is a map of rates of post-glacial rebound. Unsurprisingly, rates are far faster in areas where the ice sheets were thickest, such as Northern Canada. Of course, there the land is rising, which would produce the appearance of falling sea levels. Even in the Ottawa Ontario area, beach terraces with marine shells can be found at elevations up to 500 feet above present-day sea level, and the area experiences small earthquakes (magnitude 2-4) fairly regularly due to isostatic rebound, but remember that's 500 feet in 12,000 years. Rates of movement in non-glaciated areas is low; it seems to be barely above 0 around the Gulf States and Florida/Georgia/South & North Carolina, so I do not understand your comment about it being an especially big deal in the Gulf States.

There is also a question of magnitude. Rates of change of 0 to 1 mm/year are significantly less than the rates predicted from ocean warming and ice melting, or the observed rates given on the chart you posted. Movement due to tectonic events is well known, it can be measured accurately, and it can be applied to observed sea level changes to discriminate true sea level rise (or fall) from local land movement. To imply (as some seem to be doing) that scientists are too stupid to be able to distinguish tectonic movements from sea level changes is disingenuous at best.

On the chart you posted, high rates of apparent sea level change are shown at two stations in the vicinity of the Mississippi Delta. In such areas, the weight of incoming sediment being deposited on the delta at the mouth of such a large river would be expected to cause the crust to sink. This is an example of isostastic equilibrium for sure, but not of "post-glacial rebound".

Don

_____________________________________
Tolerance is the cost we must pay for our adventure in liberty. (Dworkin, 1996)
“Education is not filling a bucket, but lighting a fire.” (Yeats)

[lawrocket 3]

livendive

Looking at that map, it appears the vast majority of measuring points around the US indicate a rising sea level (sinking land level). I only see two points in the Pacific Northwest where the converse appears true.

Blues,
Dave

Correct. That was the point. If sea level - as measured by tide gauges - is dropping in some places then it provides evidence that there is more going on than just "sea level rise." Sea levels can have some local variations for short periods of time. But a general stasis should be seen.

What aren't we hearing? "We should begin adapting to the settling of the coastline. Already we are seeing the effects in Louisiana where about 2000 square miles of land in the last 75 years due to subsidence. This is not a prediction. It's not a model. It is a problem now and yet the concern is of damage from a predicted rise in sea level and its effects in 85 years. Question: why?

It seems that geology has more to do with threats of inundation than does climate change.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[livendive 8]

What are the huge cross-cutting impacts of this? Will it significantly affect weather? Agriculture? Energy supply & demand? Public health?

What could we do to mitigate this? Oh yeah, absolutely nothing.

What adaptations might be suggested (besides "don't put roads at <10' msl, or do ensure they're designed to withstand occasional flooding")

Red herring.

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[rushmc 23]

livendive

What are the huge cross-cutting impacts of this? Will it significantly affect weather? Agriculture? Energy supply & demand? Public health?

What could we do to mitigate this? Oh yeah, absolutely nothing.

What adaptations might be suggested (besides "don't put roads at <10' msl, or do ensure they're designed to withstand occasional flooding")

Red herring.

Blues,
Dave

Same answer for cutting carbon

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[kelpdiver 2]

livendive

What are the huge cross-cutting impacts of this? Will it significantly affect weather? Agriculture? Energy supply & demand? Public health?

What could we do to mitigate this? Oh yeah, absolutely nothing.

What adaptations might be suggested (besides "don't put roads at <10' msl, or do ensure they're designed to withstand occasional flooding")

Red herring.

no, the significance is that the tectonic fall may account for a significant portion of the 'rising seas' claims being used to justify all sorts of dramatic expenditures and change.

Back when the cry was about seas risings 10s of feet, it didn't matter. But now that reality has set in and I've seen the scare claims reduces to as low as 10 cm over decades, it matters.

[livendive 8]

You realize the effects are additive, right? If the seas are "rising" relative to the US as a result of plate tectonics, AND they're getting more water as a result of melting ice sheets, what possible argument could there be against smarter and more resilient development of coastal areas?

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[livendive 8]

rushmc

***What are the huge cross-cutting impacts of this? Will it significantly affect weather? Agriculture? Energy supply & demand? Public health?

What could we do to mitigate this? Oh yeah, absolutely nothing.

What adaptations might be suggested (besides "don't put roads at <10' msl, or do ensure they're designed to withstand occasional flooding")

Red herring.

Blues,
Dave

Same answer for cutting carbon

I'm sure you've been more wrong in the past, but I don't remember it.

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[rushmc 23]

livendive

******What are the huge cross-cutting impacts of this? Will it significantly affect weather? Agriculture? Energy supply & demand? Public health?

What could we do to mitigate this? Oh yeah, absolutely nothing.

What adaptations might be suggested (besides "don't put roads at <10' msl, or do ensure they're designed to withstand occasional flooding")

Red herring.

Blues,
Dave

Same answer for cutting carbon

I'm sure you've been more wrong in the past, but I don't remember it.

Blues,
Dave

Maybe
But the data for the last 10 plus years supports my views more than yours

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[lawrocket 3]

[Reply]There is also a question of magnitude. Rates of change of 0 to 1 mm/year are significantly less than the rates predicted from ocean warming and ice melting, or the observed rates given on the chart you posted.

[livendive 8]

You wouldn't know data if it was wearing a name tag identifying it as an android lieutenant commander assigned to the USS Enterprise, and your attempts to snipe are so poorly written that all we can do is shake our heads and guess at what you were probably trying to say. Do you even know the difference between mitigation and adaptation? And do you believe both are impossible?

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[lawrocket 3]

[Reply]You realize the effects are additive, right?

[rushmc 23]

livendive

You wouldn't know data if it was wearing a name tag identifying it as an android lieutenant commander assigned to the USS Enterprise, and your attempts to snipe are so poorly written that all we can do is shake our heads and guess at what you were probably trying to say. Do you even know the difference between mitigation and adaptation? And do you believe both are impossible?

Blues,
Dave

Sorry
I know I should leave your religion alone

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[livendive 8]

As I have said all along, adapting to the inevitable is the first course off action. Mitigating our contribution (i.e. not making the problem worse) comes second. Nobody yet to argue reasonably "but what about all the good that comes from maximizing our CO2 emissions and burning through our fossil fuels as quickly as we can?"

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[livendive 8]

Is it your position that tectonic plate dynamics are responsible warming temperatures, decreased snowpack in the cascade and Sierra Nevada mountains, increased deglaciation, and a pine beetle outbreak 10x bigger than previously observed?

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[rushmc 23]

livendive

As I have said all along, adapting to the inevitable is the first course off action. Mitigating our contribution (i.e. not making the problem worse) comes second. Nobody yet to argue reasonably "but what about all the good that comes from maximizing our CO2 emissions and burning through our fossil fuels as quickly as we can?"

Blues,
Dave

Mitigation is only effective when what is mitigated has an effect
Data (for the last 10 years) would indicate that the models (those models you hold is such high esteem, that have not met predictions) are close to being correct

So, please keep trying to belittle and insult me
Makes me know I am getting close to what you suspect
You just have yet to convince yourself

I stand ready to receive your next volley of belittling and vitriol

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[livendive 8]

rushmc

Sorry
I know I should leave your religion alone

You seem to have a poor definition of "religion". FYI - It's generally considered to be "belief that is predicated on faith alone, rather than observation." You know, kinda like when you "Me too" to any post aggreeing with your opiniong and "Nuh uh" to any post disagreeing, regardless of the merits or flaws in the information included in those posts?

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)

[livendive 8]

Are you saying that you do not believe CO2 emissions have any effect on global temperature? On what sound theory do you base this opinion?

Blues,
Dave

"I AM A PROFESSIONAL EXTREME ATHLETE!"
(drink Mountain Dew)