Did Russia affect the election?

[Bob_Church 7]

It's looking as though the answer is no.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/10/congress_russian_facebook_troll_ads/

[gowlerk 2,251]

Bob_Church

It's looking as though the answer is no.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/10/congress_russian_facebook_troll_ads/

No one will ever be able to answer that question conclusively. But it is beside the point. The real question is two fold. One, did Russia try to influence the election. And two, did any Americans try to help them.

Most likely the answers are yes and no.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[Phil1111 1,149]

Bob_Church

It's looking as though the answer is no.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/10/congress_russian_facebook_troll_ads/

You presume that the training of President Putin via the KGB and GRU is to specialize in stupidity. That the money spent on this campaign was without targets, motives and goals.

How Russia ‘Pushed Our Buttons’ With Fake Online Ads

"Many Americans this week got their first looks at fake Facebook ads placed by Russian propagandists during the 2016 election campaign to sow discord in the US....

Psychologists and students of advertising say the ads were cleverly designed to look like other internet memes, and to appeal to readers’ emotions. Jay Van Bavel, an associate professor of psychology at NYU, says he was surprised at the sophistication of the campaign. “It wasn’t transparent lies. It was just pushing our buttons,” says Van Bavel. “To me, this is more pernicious. It’s not a matter of fiction that we can root out with fact-checking. It’s more about turning Americans against each other.”

The ads took issues that voters care about and then “fed them to us as aggressively as possible,” he says.

Facebook estimates that 10 million people saw the paid ads and up to 150 million people saw other content from the fake accounts, which Facebook has traced to the Internet Research Agency, a Kremlin-backed troll farm....

“The IRA are not amateurs, they're clearly familiarizing themselves with the kind of content that resonates with the target audiences,” says Renee DiResta, researcher with Data for Democracy, a nonprofit group that has been digging into the data on Russian-linked accounts....

The ads did not look like the products of Madison Avenue. Rather, they camouflaged themselves in the vernacular of the Internet. Jennifer Grygiel, a communications professor at Syracuse University who teaches about memes, thinks the low-budget look is an engagement strategy. They want to make it appear as though the ads “could have been created by your average American....

Van Bavel, the NYU professor, has studied a phenomenon he calls “moral contagion,” referring to the use of moral emotional language to help content go viral on social networks. He says tugging at those emotions tends to drive people deeper into ideological echo chambers, dynamics he saw at play in the Russian ads. “What you’re more likely to click on is stuff that triggers this part of the brain that is so primal,” he says. “Russians knows as much. They know how to pull us apart and agitate us.”

There’s nothing new about campaigns to manipulate voters, but Van Bavel believes says it can be more polarizing in the internet age because access to media is more fragmented and curated...

Bruce McClintock, an adjunct policy analyst at the Rand Corporation and a retired brigadier general who served as the senior defense official at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, says the ads resonate with Russian and Soviet tactics of other eras.

“It’s about spreading disinformation, propaganda, counterfeit official documents to increase confusion,” he says. McClintock says the goal of the campaign likely was broader than just the election and includes the long-term objective of weakening the US and undermining America’s reputation in the eyes of the world."
https://www.wired.com/story/how-russia-pushed-our-buttons-with-fake-online-ads/

Enhance divisions in a target population when one party has a clear advantage. Results in fragmentation of the vote. Reduced inclination to vote.

The expansion of parameters of thinking is necessary when something dosn't seem right on the face of it.

It appears as if the retired brigadier general and president Putin were both exactly right.

How Putin's oligarchs funneled millions into GOP campaigns
https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2018/05/08/putins-proxies-helped-funnel-millions-gop-campaigns

Editor's note May 8, 2018: This column originally published December 15, 2017. New allegations about $500k in payments from a Russian oligarch made to Trump attorney Michael Cohen have placed it back in the news....

Buried in the campaign finance reports available to the public are some troubling connections between a group of wealthy donors with ties to Russia and their political contributions to President Donald Trump and a number of top Republican leaders. And thanks to changes in campaign finance laws, the political contributions are legal. We have allowed our campaign finance laws to become a strategic threat to our country....

Like Bossie, Dan Backer helped to open the floodgates to millions of dollars of influence brought to bear on incumbents and their political challengers who are now pressured to kowtow to their donors with the biggest bank accounts, even if their billions are earned in Russian rubles....

The changes to our campaign finance laws created an avenue for Russia to try to influence our elections. There are holes in our firewall and they aren't on the internet."

[Bob_Church 7]

But what about the actual numbers of views as recorded by Facebook? Are you assuming those are falsified or just don't count?

[Bob_Church 7]

My personal opinion, after reading that and looking at the numbers is that this was just for information gathering. They wanted to see what worked and how well. They knew that whichever of the clowns were were to choose from won we in the US were royally screwed so they weren't really concerned about results.
But that's just me.

[rushmc 23]

gowlerk

***It's looking as though the answer is no.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/10/congress_russian_facebook_troll_ads/

No one will ever be able to answer that question conclusively. But it is beside the point. The real question is two fold. One, did Russia try to influence the election. And two, did any Americans try to help them.

Most likely the answers are yes and no.

It is a known fact that the Clinton campaign did work with the Russians as she paid for it. The pee pee doc.

And the Russians did try and spread chaos to make the people question the election. With the media, deep state and Democrat help, for some, they succeeded.

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[Bob_Church 7]

rushmc

******It's looking as though the answer is no.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/10/congress_russian_facebook_troll_ads/

No one will ever be able to answer that question conclusively. But it is beside the point. The real question is two fold. One, did Russia try to influence the election. And two, did any Americans try to help them.

Most likely the answers are yes and no.

It is a known fact that the Clinton campaign did work with the Russians as she paid for it. The pee pee doc.

And the Russians did try and spread chaos to make the people question the election. With the media, deep state and Democrat help, for some, they succeeded.

I think a lot of it is a combination of the wording and people desperate to believe that they won when they didn't. What we keep hearing is "The Russians used the computer networks to interfere with our elections." It tends to be background noise and people picture hackers changing the number of votes by breaking into the voting machines. Not this trivial crap.

[pchapman 279]

rushmc

It is a known fact that the Clinton campaign did work with the Russians as she paid for it.

I'm not really well informed on the matter, but that's a curious and deceptive use of the term "worked with".

If I were a cop investigating the mafia and I have contacts I talk with or informants who pass me tips, I hope you wouldn't say that I'm "working with the mafia".

[wan2doit 6]

The article phil 1111 posted stated - “It wasn’t transparent lies. It was just pushing our buttons,” says Van Bavel. “To me, this is more pernicious. It’s not a matter of fiction that we can root out with fact-checking. It’s more about turning Americans against each other.”

Just taking the example of Dep't of Interior (DOI) federal land management planning one who has knowledge of it knows that American's buttons have been being pushed hard and painfully for decades by DOI. I suspect Negative effects of DOI's actions on the little guys and gals have kept a constantly growing number (millions)of Americans pissed off for one or two generations. IMHO they don't just dislike DOI they hate it.

Many have positive images of smokey the bear when thinking of DOI/Nat Park Service/USFWS etc. but others understand all to well how DOI has massive power to wreck lives and cultures.

As far as those folks I refer to here Russia couldn't have had much effect on them or changed how they voted. They wanted a drastic change and had no concern for repercussions and that is what happened in one of our three branches of government.

DOI alone much less all the other federal and state agencies have a propaganda machines equal to anything the russians have. From what I have experienced the Russians may be learning from our side.

We are way down a very bumpy road and there ain't no tellin' how much more bumpier it will get.

We are our own biggest threat due to our ignorance due to decades of apathy.

[434 2]

Another question

Have USA ever tried to affect other countries elections?

I think the answer to that question is a yes, and then the next question will be, why shouldnt you expect other countries to do the same?

Even intelligeince is shared between the different countries and different parties and trying to protect each others interests. All in the best of interest of the Nations of course. There will always be back doors opens for those who is willing to use them.

[billvon 3,073]

>If I were a cop investigating the mafia and I have contacts I talk with or informants who
>pass me tips, I hope you wouldn't say that I'm "working with the mafia".

To RushMC, that would hinge on whether you were a democrat or a republican.

[Phil1111 1,149]

Iago

*********It's looking as though the answer is no.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/10/congress_russian_facebook_troll_ads/

No one will ever be able to answer that question conclusively. But it is beside the point. The real question is two fold. One, did Russia try to influence the election. And two, did any Americans try to help them.

Most likely the answers are yes and no.

It is a known fact that the Clinton campaign did work with the Russians as she paid for it. The pee pee doc.

And the Russians did try and spread chaos to make the people question the election. With the media, deep state and Democrat help, for some, they succeeded.

Politicians have been running bullshit campaign ads forever. If you're going to be swayed one way or the other by a crappy Facebook post OR a legit 'Paid for by Imma Screwya Hard campaign' TV spot you should probably turn in your voter card.

Just my opinion.

You're right. Advertising is completely ineffective. The trillions of dollars spent selling beer on sports programs. A waste. All the hundreds of millions that those stupid Koch brothers donate. All wasted.

Google ads, more waste. The legislation limiting donations, prohibiting foreigners from donating. Should all be tossed out. in fact the doors should be thrown open for any foreigner to donate to political campaigns. It will spur jobs!

[airdvr 210]

Quote

Politicians have been running bullshit campaign ads forever. If you're going to be swayed one way or the other by a crappy Facebook post OR a legit 'Paid for by Imma Screwya Hard campaign' TV spot you should probably turn in your voter card.

^^^^
This. If you want to live in China where all communications from the outside world is massaged be my guest.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[rushmc 23]

434

Another question

Have USA ever tried to affect other countries elections?

I think the answer to that question is a yes, and then the next question will be, why shouldnt you expect other countries to do the same?

Even intelligeince is shared between the different countries and different parties and trying to protect each others interests. All in the best of interest of the Nations of course. There will always be back doors opens for those who is willing to use them.

Yes. The Obama Administration used State Department money to try and defeat Bibi Netanyahu

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[kallend 2,106]

rushmc

***Another question

Have USA ever tried to affect other countries elections?

I think the answer to that question is a yes, and then the next question will be, why shouldnt you expect other countries to do the same?

Even intelligeince is shared between the different countries and different parties and trying to protect each others interests. All in the best of interest of the Nations of course. There will always be back doors opens for those who is willing to use them.

Yes. The Obama Administration used State Department money to try and defeat Bibi Netanyahu

Meanwhile Republicans just sponsor military coups.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Bob_Church 7]

edit: I was quoting phil but screwed it up and show it as airdvr. Sorry about that.

"You're right. Advertising is completely ineffective. The trillions of dollars spent selling beer on sports programs. A waste. All the hundreds of millions that those stupid Koch brothers donate. All wasted.

Google ads, more waste. The legislation limiting donations, prohibiting foreigners from donating. Should all be tossed out. in fact the doors should be thrown open for any foreigner to donate to political campaigns. It will spur jobs! "

Bad advertising that few people even see is a waste. I think the point of the article is that so few people saw this stuff that they made no difference, and they have the numbers from Facebook to back that up. Not that Facebook is some icon of honesty but if they were going to lie I think they'd have inflated the numbers, not reduced them.
As for advertising in general, I think a lot of it is a scam, but one that too many people make too much money from to look at honestly. Some of it works of course, but a lot, and I'm thinking primarily of television advertising, has become a joke and a scam. But that's another thread.

[Phil1111 1,149]

Bob_Church

edit: I was quoting phil but screwed it up and show it as airdvr. Sorry about that.

"You're right. Advertising is completely ineffective. The trillions of dollars spent selling beer on sports programs. A waste. All the hundreds of millions that those stupid Koch brothers donate. All wasted.

Google ads, more waste. The legislation limiting donations, prohibiting foreigners from donating. Should all be tossed out. in fact the doors should be thrown open for any foreigner to donate to political campaigns. It will spur jobs! "

Bad advertising that few people even see is a waste. I think the point of the article is that so few people saw this stuff that they made no difference, and they have the numbers from Facebook to back that up. Not that Facebook is some icon of honesty but if they were going to lie I think they'd have inflated the numbers, not reduced them.
As for advertising in general, I think a lot of it is a scam, but one that too many people make too much money from to look at honestly. Some of it works of course, but a lot, and I'm thinking primarily of television advertising, has become a joke and a scam. But that's another thread.

Almost every aspect of advertising is driven by psychological studies and science. Advertising is a 220 billion dollar industry in the US alone. A person thinks an ad is ineffective, when in fact its targeted at your whole psychology, your mindset.

This may help:
https://hbr.org/2016/04/targeted-ads-dont-just-make-you-more-likely-to-buy-they-can-change-how-you-think-about-yourself

And a longer version:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1904/01/the-psychology-of-advertising/303465/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/272314/advertising-spending-in-the-us/

There is a certain hubris to suggest that an individual is not subject to the same psychological process that anyone else is. But this is a skydiving forum!

[Bob_Church 7]

Phil1111

***edit: I was quoting phil but screwed it up and show it as airdvr. Sorry about that.

"You're right. Advertising is completely ineffective. The trillions of dollars spent selling beer on sports programs. A waste. All the hundreds of millions that those stupid Koch brothers donate. All wasted.

Google ads, more waste. The legislation limiting donations, prohibiting foreigners from donating. Should all be tossed out. in fact the doors should be thrown open for any foreigner to donate to political campaigns. It will spur jobs! "

Bad advertising that few people even see is a waste. I think the point of the article is that so few people saw this stuff that they made no difference, and they have the numbers from Facebook to back that up. Not that Facebook is some icon of honesty but if they were going to lie I think they'd have inflated the numbers, not reduced them.
As for advertising in general, I think a lot of it is a scam, but one that too many people make too much money from to look at honestly. Some of it works of course, but a lot, and I'm thinking primarily of television advertising, has become a joke and a scam. But that's another thread.

Almost every aspect of advertising is driven by psychological studies and science. Advertising is a 220 billion dollar industry in the US alone. A person thinks an ad is ineffective, when in fact its targeted at your whole psychology, your mindset.

This may help:
https://hbr.org/2016/04/targeted-ads-dont-just-make-you-more-likely-to-buy-they-can-change-how-you-think-about-yourself

And a longer version:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1904/01/the-psychology-of-advertising/303465/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/272314/advertising-spending-in-the-us/

There is a certain hubris to suggest that an individual is not subject to the same psychological process that anyone else is. But this is a skydiving forum!

Do you think that enough people sit through the 12 or more commercials packed into each commercial break in a tv show to make it worth the money spent? TV advertising, I believe, is in a death spiral. And I'm not talking about paying attention or not, I know they can get the message through without making you think about it, but I'm talking about the number of people who used VCRs and now DVRs or whatever it takes to just skip them completely.

[jakee 1,563]

airdvr

Quote

Politicians have been running bullshit campaign ads forever. If you're going to be swayed one way or the other by a crappy Facebook post OR a legit 'Paid for by Imma Screwya Hard campaign' TV spot you should probably turn in your voter card.

^^^^
This. If you want to live in China where all communications from the outside world is massaged be my guest.

And yet.... that's not how it works. You may not get swayed by that stuff, but you don't decide the election on your own. The people who do get swayed by that stuff are still allowed to vote.

Look at the ridiculous shit Nolhtairt's been posting recently - like the cheap photoshop fake of Obama handing out medals that he captioned "you can't make this up". He was swayed by that amateur hour nonsense and he still gets to vote, and so do all the rest of them.

It's easy to think you're above all this stuff and so should everyone else be, but as pointed out above, advertising works.

Do you want to have an ideagasm?

[jcd11235 0]

Bob_Church

Do you think that enough people sit through the 12 or more commercials packed into each commercial break in a tv show to make it worth the money spent? TV advertising, I believe, is in a death spiral.

It's easy enough for advertisers to measure the effects of advertising campaigns. Most companies won't continue buying airtime if it doesn't increase revenue.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[SkyDekker 1,465]

We see enough people here who constantly need to be corrected because what they are posting is simply incorrect. That means that campaigns to sway opinion and votes are definitely working.

[rushmc 23]

SkyDekker

We see enough people here who constantly need to be corrected because what they are posting is simply incorrect. That means that campaigns to sway opinion and votes are definitely working.

Barack Obama said there is no way the Russians could ever influence our elections.

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[nolhtairt 0]

rushmc

***We see enough people here who constantly need to be corrected because what they are posting is simply incorrect. That means that campaigns to sway opinion and votes are definitely working.

Barack Obama said there is no way the Russians could ever influence our elections.

I predict there will be no collusion found on the Republican side.

[Bob_Church 7]

SkyDekker

We see enough people here who constantly need to be corrected because what they are posting is simply incorrect. That means that campaigns to sway opinion and votes are definitely working.

But this article seemed to be mostly about the actual numbers of viewers. All of these other arguments seem mute since we can see that very very few people even saw these.
That's the point they were trying to make but it seems to have been completely overlooked. If you pay a local TV station to run ads for you DZ then none of the advertising skills in the world will help if they either forgot to run them or ran them when everyone was out doing something else and never saw them.

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

Well, this article was only about ads that were purchased by the 'troll farms.'

That was only a small part of the campaign.

This doesn't even touch on the posts by the trolls.

We even saw some of those here.

It's hard to look at a small part of the issue and call the whole thing ineffective.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo