Pennsylvania Special Election Results: 18th Congressional District

[ryoder 1,590]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

No doubt there will be calls for a recount.

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[Phil1111 1,149]

ryoder

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

No doubt there will be calls for a recount.

"Trump's level of popularity or lack thereof also suggests Republicans are on their way to losing the House. Depending on the poll or average you examine, Trump's approval rating is within a few points of 40%. The latest Gallup poll for example has him at just a 39% approval rating. That's below where President Barack Obama's approval rating was heading into the 2010 and 2014 midterms.
I collected data on each president's approval rating at this point before each midterm election in Gallup surveys since 1946. Trump's 39% approval rating at this point projects that the Republicans will lose the House popular vote by 10 points. (There's a fairly wide margin of error in this estimate given that we are still have a lot time before the midterm.)
If the 10-point estimate is right on, Republicans will probably have a net loss of between 30 and 40 seats. That is far more than the net 23 seats they need to lose (if Lamb wins) for them to lose the House. "
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/14/politics/pennsylvania-special-election-not-isolated/index.html

Just in time for a little Muellerburger report.

[nolhtairt 0]

49.8% for the winner? Will there be a runoff election due to not having the 50% majority?

Damn the Libertarian candidate!

[RonD1120 62]

From what I hear on the news, Land is a Demopublican. He lines up more with conservative values than with the progressive liberals. He may well be the best choice.

Look for the shiny things of God revealed by the Holy Spirit. They only last for an instant but it is a Holy Instant. Let your soul absorb them.

[DanG 1]

Huh, that's not what your hero, Donald Trump, said about Land. He, and the Republican Party, said Land was a Nancy Pelosi protege who would never give Trump a single vote.

Could it be that Trump was lying?

- Dan G

[RonD1120 62]

DanG

Huh, that's not what your hero, Donald Trump, said about Land. He, and the Republican Party, said Land was a Nancy Pelosi protege who would never give Trump a single vote.

Could it be that Trump was lying?

I heard sound bite this AM. Land stated that Pelosi should be replaced. That does not sound much like a protégé to me.

Look for the shiny things of God revealed by the Holy Spirit. They only last for an instant but it is a Holy Instant. Let your soul absorb them.

[kallend 2,027]

RonD1120

From what I hear on the news, Land is a demopublican. He lines up more with conservative values than with the progressive liberals. He may well be the best choice.

Conor Lamb. LamB.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[billvon 2,991]

>From what I hear on the news, Land is a Demopublican. He lines up more with
>conservative values than with the progressive liberals. He may well be the best choice.

I was wondering how the right would spin this crushing loss. Sounds like they are going with the "it's not a loss" angle.

Lamb supports abortion rights. He wants expanded background checks on gun purchases. He's against the GOP tax bill and says it will balloon the deficit. He wants to "call out" Republicans on “their public hypocrisy." He thinks climate change is a threat that needs to be addressed. He opposes Obamacare repeal.

I agree that he is the best choice. And heck, if that's the "new face" of the republican party I'd vote Republican too.

[kallend 2,027]

RonD1120

***Huh, that's not what your hero, Donald Trump, said about Land. He, and the Republican Party, said Land was a Nancy Pelosi protege who would never give Trump a single vote.

Could it be that Trump was lying?

I heard sound bite this AM. Land stated that Pelosi should be replaced. That does not sound much like a protégé to me.

Are you claiming that Trump lied yet again?

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[billvon 2,991]

Thought this was interesting from a report on the election:

============
Earlier in the evening, before it became clear the results would be so close, several Republican officials told CNN they were expecting Saccone to lose. Party officials were placing the blame squarely on Saccone's campaign but also on Trump's Saturday rally for the candidate, which some Republicans believe helped drive up Democratic turnout.
============

Looks like there may be fewer candidates asking for Trump's help in the future.

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

Phil1111

"Trump's level of popularity or lack thereof also suggests Republicans are on their way to losing the House. Depending on the poll or average you examine, Trump's approval rating is within a few points of 40%. The latest Gallup poll for example has him at just a 39% approval rating. That's below where President Barack Obama's approval rating was heading into the 2010 and 2014 midterms.
I collected data on each president's approval rating at this point before each midterm election in Gallup surveys since 1946. Trump's 39% approval rating at this point projects that the Republicans will lose the House popular vote by 10 points. (There's a fairly wide margin of error in this estimate given that we are still have a lot time before the midterm.)
If the 10-point estimate is right on, Republicans will probably have a net loss of between 30 and 40 seats. That is far more than the net 23 seats they need to lose (if Lamb wins) for them to lose the House. "
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/14/politics/pennsylvania-special-election-not-isolated/index.html

Just in time for a little Muellerburger report.

I don't think that 'historical' results are really going to apply this time.

It's a lot more complicated (and a lot simpler too).

Look at the disapproval ratings instead of the approval. Trump is pretty much hated by those who don't like him. There's not a whole lot of middle ground.

A lot of the folks that stayed home a year and a half ago are pretty pissed. They may or may not regret not voting for HRC, but they are certainly going to make sure they vote next time.

And there's a fairly large amount of people who voted either R (but maybe not Trump) or 3rd party who are not going to do that again.
I'm in that group. I've never voted D in a national or major state election before, but there's a very good chance I will at the midterms. I'm almost certainly never going to vote R again in my life.

The desire to "dump Trump" is pretty strong.

The Governor's races in VA & NJ, the Senate race in AL and this one are all very interesting. Places that were Republican strongholds are falling (Trump won that PA district by 22%).

These races may well be a harbinger of things to come.

I think a veto proof D majority in both the House & Senate is possible. Maybe not likely, but possible.

And despite the damage that may do to gun rights, I'd love to see Trump emasculated that way.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[rushmc 23]

I think the general consensus was Trump could not win the presidency either, correct?

How did that work out for you?

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[billvon 2,991]

>I think the general consensus was Trump could not win the presidency either, correct?
>How did that work out for you?

Best thing that ever happened to the democrats. They are going into the next election riding high.

Edited to add - and that's not just me thinking that. Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) recently said this to his GOP colleagues - "If we are going to cloister ourselves in the alternative truth of an erratic leader, if we are going to refuse to live in a world that everyone else lives in ... then my party might not deserve to lead."