North Korea policy

[gowlerk 2,249]

On 3/5/2019 at 1:17 AM, AlanS said:

The free trade agreement with China was a strategic mistake.

There is no free trade agreement between China and the US. So I'm not sure how it could be a mistake. And the one they were working on with Canada seems to be on a long hold thanks to our American cousins putting us in a spot over trying to enforce their withdrawal fro the Iran agreement.

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

On 3/6/2019 at 10:10 AM, AlanS said:

Your information is old. 

North Korea hasn't been doing public tests or launches recently but they've been working just as hard as before in building more nuclear bombs and improving their designs.  And they have been getting help which will increase their capabilities fast. They just haven't shown these capabilities publicly yet.

The chemicals to process plutonium, the milling machines needed to make compact nuclear bombs and solid rocket boosters are not things that North Korea can produce domestically. During this hiatus, they have been importing these things quietly with external help. 

This is such an important issue that we need to link trade talks with China to help from them bring down the Kim Dynasty in North Korea. 

 

 

Where are you getting your information? 

I haven't seen any of this in the public news, which is all I have.

I won't argue that they are trying to increase their arsenal & improve their capabilities.

 

But I have yet to see anything that suggests they have any real capability at the moment. Maybe a handful of warheads, and a few missiles of questionable reliability.

And even if they had more, and more reliable weapons, so what?

The US has a LOT more. And lots better too. And, while it's been almost 75 years since one's been used, we are the only country to have ever used them. KJU knows full well that if he attacks the US with nukes, then the DPRK will cease to exist.

I'm still waiting for an explanation of how KJU presents a real 'existential threat' to the US. Even several missiles would not destroy the US. It would cause a hell of a lot of death & destruction, but the US would persist. The idea that China or Russia would step in and take over a 'weak' US after some sort of exchange with the DPRK is fantasy. 

Besides, attacking the US is not anywhere in KJU's game plan. He wants to stay in power. His possession of nukes is a very strong deterrent to anyone trying to 'bring him down'.

How do you propose to get China to betray their ally? They are allied with the DPRK for a reason, and it would take a lot to get them to abandon them. 

Trade talks? Ha.
They are winning the "Trade War" the Mango Mussolini started. The trade deficit has risen to record levels. We have virtually zero leverage over them on trade. 

China has been allied with the DPRK since the communists took over in 1949. There's no way they would 'bring down' KJU or the "Kim Dynasty". Besides, what would replace it? 
Not unlike Iraq, there is a government of sorts in place. It's reasonably stable, although vicious, brutal and oppressive. KJU makes for a nice distraction in the region. China has a certain amount of influence, but not much real control. But if they 'brought down' KJU and his government, the chaos would be tremendous. The number of refugees that would inundate China would be tremendous. 

 

It is a huge stretch to imagine that they would do anything along that line. 

[AlanS 1]

On 3/7/2019 at 6:00 PM, wolfriverjoe said:

Where are you getting your information? 

I haven't seen any of this in the public news, which is all I have.

I won't argue that they are trying to increase their arsenal & improve their capabilities.

 

But I have yet to see anything that suggests they have any real capability at the moment. Maybe a handful of warheads, and a few missiles of questionable reliability.

:

Article:   North Korean Sept. 2017 test was an order of magnitude (10x) stronger than the previous 5 tests. See link for details. 

https://gizmodo.com/north-korea-s-2017-nuclear-test-estimated-to-be-16-time-1835235895

This is a quote from the article. 

Quote

The country has now conducted a total of six tests, each one stronger than the last. But as the new research shows, the difference detected between the fifth and sixth tests is particularly alarming. The jump from roughly 20 kilotons to 250 kilotons signifies a dramatic boost in North Korea’s nuclear potential.

The sudden increase in capability was likely due to help from outside the NK getting high precision machinery into the country. 

What is also very disturbing is that picture in the article. Instead of being a single ball or cylinder more common of the older and less efficient nuclear weapon designs, that is a peanut shape similar to the US W88 design, where a Uranium-235 stage acts as a spark-plug igniting Plutonium-239 pit surrounding a tritium and deuterium core for a more efficient hydrogen bomb.  Instead of a nuclear bomb weighing several tons, it could now be less than 1,000 lbs which would make it easier to deliver on a rocket.   The previous estimate was they had enough material for 60 bombs but was of the less efficient design.  You take the same amount of nuclear material and it could double the number of more powerful and deliverable nuclear bombs they have.  North Korea could have more nuclear weapons than England or France by 2024.

The other area they have been working on is solid stage rockets to replace the liquid-fueled rockets.  This means they could be hidden and launched more easily. 

None of these advances are possible without high-tech milling equipment, and the chemical getting into North Korea through its border with China.