covid-19

[winsor 236]

2 hours ago, nwt said:

Same as how we have people like winsor looking to an anarchist blog site for medical information.

The article obliquely addressed my concern with the definition of what constitutes a "case," and that has varied.

The probability of false positives or false negatives using PCR is a function of cycles.  If it takes 40 cycles to detect, you're in pretty good shape; if you're positive at 10 cycles you're hosed. CDC guidelines seem to have changed over time, and it stood at 20 PCR cycles the last time I checked, where previously labs such as Quest Diagnostics would run 30 or 40.

I've been tested repeatedly (negative so far), and when I've asked how many cycles they ran I didn't get much of an answer.

I tend to look at case fatality rates to gauge the progress of the disease, but that is still less than exact.

As far as how effective the vaccine is at suppressing the disease, Gibraltar is enlightening.

I couldn't find a fringe web page for the data, so Reuters will have to do:

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/gibraltar/

This may be no big deal, but basically every recent case has been in an overvaccinated population (they show 150%).

If vaccination reduces the death rate, that's great.  If it reduces permanent damage from the proliferation of blood clots of various sizes, that's wonderful as well.

I suspect that, like HIV, it will take something along the lines of 3CL protease inhibitors to put the brakes on the disease.  HIV is still around, but it is not wreaking havoc the way it did 30 years ago.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

[gowlerk 2,241]

19 minutes ago, winsor said:

If vaccination reduces the death rate, that's great.  If it reduces permanent damage from the proliferation of blood clots of various sizes, that's wonderful as well.

And clearly harm reduction is what the vaccines are providing. Where I live nearly 80% of eligible people (those older than 4) are vaccinated that is down from the 85% before it was approved for children, but is rising back up quickly. Even though they are a minority the vaccine refusers make up about 60% of new cases. Leaving about 40% to be among the fully vaccinated. But those sick enough to need hospital care are mostly from the refuser group and among the ICU bed occupants almost all are unvaccinated. The few that are not mostly have other conditions that weaken their immune system. Vaccination more than reduces the death rate. It almost zeros it and if you don't get sick you don't get long term effects from being sick. It is a classic no brainer. Please stop making posts about things you don't understand. Please do go to whatever sites you hang out in and do your best to spread the word. Vaccines are good.

[nwt 131]

49 minutes ago, winsor said:

I tend to look at case fatality rates to gauge the progress of the disease, but that is still less than exact.

You are in so far over your head.

[winsor 236]

1 hour ago, nwt said:

You are in so far over your head.

Okay, this is what I meant by orthodoxy.

If you want to address anything I have said line and verse, fine.

If all you have is abuse, you have nothing.

Just because I never finished High School does not mean my understanding of epidemiology is too weak to consider the effects - medical, political, social, economic and historic - of this virus.

I have a passing familiarity with viruses, their treatment and prevention.   Again, I am underwhelmed by the numbers for any of the vaccines, and contend that they offer insufficient protection against SARS-CoV-2.  The extent of breakthrough infections, and the fact that virus shedding is equivalent between the unvaccinated and the vaccinated somewhat reduces the overall benefit of vaccination.

Given natural selection, the virus that proliferates in a vaccinated individual is more likely to be resistant to the vaccine.  Thus, the virus being shed by a breakthrough infection is more likely to result in further breakthrough infections.

In any event, the vaccines have benefit, but they are certainly not harmless and their efficacy falls well short of 100%.

It behooves us to continue research on other means of treatment and prevention if we are to get a handle on this bug.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

Edited December 8, 2021 by winsor

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

43 minutes ago, nwt said:

You are in so far over your head.

Oh please.

There's a difference between ignorance & deliberate misinterpretation of data.

Here's one example:
https://www.factcheck.org/2021/11/scicheck-why-its-easy-to-misinterpret-numbers-of-deaths-among-the-vaccinated/

In the Gibraltar example, they have a highly vaxxed population.
Almost complete. But the vax isn't 100% effective, so there are still cases.

So, as Billvon has pointed out on a couple occasions, more of the cases will be among the vaxxed, just because of the numbers.

To paraphrase what I remember Bill writing, if 99% are vaxxed, but half the cases are from the vaxxed, it means the vax is highly effective. 
It doesn't mean the idiots and deniers won't hop on the 'half the cases are vaxxed!!!! The vax DOESN'T WORK!!!' bandwagon. 

You have to dig a bit deeper, comparing rates among vaxxed & unvaxxed to get real, usable data. 

As a couple examples, Minnesota has found that the death rates for vaxxed under 65 is 0.0/100k. Zero. That doesn't mean there aren't any deaths, it means the number rounds down to zero at the first past the decimal.
That would mean less than 0.05/100k, or something like less than 1 in 2 million. 

Washington state is no longer reporting the death rates for vaxxed under 65 because it's essentially zero.

[billvon 3,058]

12 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

To paraphrase what I remember Bill writing, if 99% are vaxxed, but half the cases are from the vaxxed, it means the vax is highly effective. 

Yep.  And further, the age distributions matter. For example, Florida is currently seeing a lower new-infection rate than California, even though they have a lower vaccination rate (61% vs 63%.)  However, Florida has a much higher percentage of old people than California does - and that at-risk population is, on average, more vaccinated.   Florida, for example, has almost twice the percentage of people in the 65-74 year old category than California does - and that demographic has an 89% vaccination rate.   The 20-24 category has a higher percentage in California - and on average they have a 57% vaccination rate.

Good overview on the math behind this:

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

 

 

[billvon 3,058]

The first study results on Omicron are in, and it's not good but not all that bad.  Antibodies produced by Pfizer vaccinations are about 2.5% as effective against Omicron as they were against the original variant - but cell mediated immunity seems to be largely unaffected.  Which means much less protection against initial infections (antibodies prevent initial infections) but similar protection against serious disease (which depends largely on cell based response.)

Study: https://secureservercdn.net/50.62.198.70/1mx.c5c.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-267417v1-Sigal.7z

 

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

I've got some advanced math. Calc, Stats, nothing beyond sophomore college level.
It's been a while so I only remember a bit.

What I mostly know is that the math behind these stats (vaxxed vs unvaxxed, rates and cases, ect) is mostly beyond me.

I DO know that the people behind the scenes, figuring out the numbers have the math to get it right.
So, for legit sources, the data coming out is pretty solid.

Not the shit being posted on FB, not the '99.9xxx survival rate', not the 'XX vaxxed are dying every day' not those claims.

And ALL  the legit math says vaxes work.
Last I heard vaxxed were 8 times less likely to get sick.

11 times less likely to end up in the hospital.

15 times less likely to die.

[billvon 3,058]

3 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Last I heard vaxxed were 8 times less likely to get sick.

11 times less likely to end up in the hospital.

15 times less likely to die.

Yep. The exact ratios vary on assumptions (which variant, preconditions, state of infection etc) but those are all close to the estimates for various combinations of those factors.

[gowlerk 2,241]

2 minutes ago, billvon said:

Yep. The exact ratios vary on assumptions (which variant, preconditions, state of infection etc) but those are all close to the estimates for various combinations of those factors.

So, you would think a good conservative would find it to be a civic duty to help the nation and the local community to do what they can. Yet for a good number the opposite is what they think. Apparently false information like the kind Winsor seems to be attracted to has convinced about 15% of the population where I am and an astounding 30% of the American people that it is "wrong for me".

[gowlerk 2,241]

21 minutes ago, billvon said:

The first study results on Omicron are in, and it's not good but not all that bad.

I'm starting to hear now that it is very transmissible but less virulent. Maybe. What I am wondering is if it is less virulent because it is showing up in a lot of people who are vaccinated or survivors. Perhaps it has not yet had a chance to infect many of the hosts in which it would still be a novel infection. 

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

17 minutes ago, billvon said:

Yep. The exact ratios vary on assumptions (which variant, preconditions, state of infection etc) but those are all close to the estimates for various combinations of those factors.

The numbers I used were from Wisconsin Dept of Health Services. 

Different places have seen slightly different numbers. 
But they're all pretty close from what I've seen.

10 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

So, you would think a good conservative would find it to be a civic duty to help the nation and the local community to do what they can. Yet for a good number the opposite is what they think. Apparently false information like the kind Winsor seems to be attracted to has convinced about 15% of the population where I am and an astounding 30% of the American people that it is "wrong for me".

Trump & the Rs spent the last 6 years convincing people that the 'media is lying about everything'. Along with all the other garbage which was simply lies the base wanted to hear.

Not a huge surprise that they are now dying in droves because of the lies.

Of course, the fact that Russian propaganda is aiding and abetting the lies, adding to the deaths is just another 'fun fact' in the whole thing.

 

One of the more interesting ones is the "No thanks, I'm not your experiment" meme.

https://ifunny.co/picture/no-thanks-i-m-not-your-experiment-wk7BrP5R8

 

The image is actually from a 50s Soviet anti-alcohol campaign.
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/нет-no-poster

Almost as if Putin and Russia are doing their very best to find ways of hurting the US by making the pandemic worse for us.

[winsor 236]

27 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

So, you would think a good conservative would find it to be a civic duty to help the nation and the local community to do what they can. Yet for a good number the opposite is what they think. Apparently false information like the kind Winsor seems to be attracted to has convinced about 15% of the population where I am and an astounding 30% of the American people that it is "wrong for me".

Out of curiosity, what do you think I do for a living?

What in particular do you claim is "false" and on what basis?

You appear to categorize me as an 'anti vaxxer.'  If so, precisely what leads you to that conclusion?

[gowlerk 2,241]

7 minutes ago, winsor said:

You appear to categorize me as an 'anti vaxxer.'  If so, precisely what leads you to that conclusion?

Actually I do not. But it is clear that you spend some of your time on sites run by people who are discouraging others from being vaccinated. You have made many statements just today that are false. Mostly based on over the top rhetoric that you must have found somewhere. You seem to be one of those who are predisposed to believe in media and other authority figure conspiracies' so you seek out places that confirm them. 

I'm not sure what you do for a living at all. My general impression is that you are likely a little older than my 64 years and that you are retired. Please enlighten me if you wish.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

Whatever cause you give to the deaths, the following shows the excess deaths:

You can certainly think that all those extra deaths that seem to pretty steadily coincide with the various waves in the US are due to cops kneeling on people and car crashes.....I guess.

Sauce

[nwt 131]

1 hour ago, winsor said:

Just because I never finished High School does not mean my understanding of epidemiology is too weak to consider the effects - medical, political, social, economic and historic - of this virus.

I hate to be blunt, but yes it does. You have no clue what you're doing. So much of what you say is so wrong that I wouldn't know where to start. And since you've shown yourself to be unwilling to listen to anything that contradicts your preconceived notions, why should I try? Yes, I'm being pretty blunt with you, but not abusive.

[winsor 236]

8 minutes ago, nwt said:

I hate to be blunt, but yes it does. You have no clue what you're doing. So much of what you say is so wrong that I wouldn't know where to start. And since you've shown yourself to be unwilling to listen to anything that contradicts your preconceived notions, why should I try? Yes, I'm being pretty blunt with you, but not abusive.

As previously noted, you got nothing.  Actually, less than nothing.

[gowlerk 2,241]

Just now, winsor said:

As previously noted, you got nothing.  Actually, less than nothing.

As a person who never finished junior high school I will agree that your lack of formal education does not preclude you from having a basic grasp on those ideas. I do not know exactly what it is that causes you to not have a good grip on the facts. I suspect it is a form of willful ignorance. But whatever the reason is your arguments here have been so weak as to border on laughable. Except that they are not funny.

[winsor 236]

25 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

As a person who never finished junior high school I will agree that your lack of formal education does not preclude you from having a basic grasp on those ideas. I do not know exactly what it is that causes you to not have a good grip on the facts. I suspect it is a form of willful ignorance. But whatever the reason is your arguments here have been so weak as to border on laughable. Except that they are not funny.

I didn't say I lacked formal education.

I never bothered to get a B license, either.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

22 minutes ago, winsor said:

I didn't say I lacked formal education.

I never bothered to get a B license, either.

Oh it is a gotcha....you say you didn't finish High School, clearly implying something, but you then get to say you do have a Phd in something else and you get to be all smug and stuff. I am sure the people at the cocktail parties are mightily impressed and utter lots of oohs and ahhhs.

[gowlerk 2,241]

32 minutes ago, winsor said:

I didn't say I lacked formal education.

I never bothered to get a B license, either.

Well that's real cute of you to tease about your education and work experience. Why don't you just come out and state in then instead of expecting me to guess. The point is that you demonstrate low understanding of the subject at hand.

[winsor 236]

29 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Oh it is a gotcha....you say you didn't finish High School, clearly implying something, but you then get to say you do have a Phd in something else and you get to be all smug and stuff. I am sure the people at the cocktail parties are mightily impressed and utter lots of oohs and ahhhs.

Nah, just playing into the claims that I lack knowledge by parties that can't back up their objections.

Seems fair.

[winsor 236]

22 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Well that's real cute of you to tease about your education and work experience. Why don't you just come out and state in then instead of expecting me to guess. The point is that you demonstrate low understanding of the subject at hand.

As opposed to you, who demonstrate nothing. Don't bitch.

[gowlerk 2,241]

15 minutes ago, winsor said:

As opposed to you, who demonstrate nothing. Don't bitch.

Hmmm.... a stinging rebuke. Even cuter!

[nwt 131]

1 hour ago, SkyDekker said:

Oh it is a gotcha....you say you didn't finish High School, clearly implying something, but you then get to say you do have a Phd in something else and you get to be all smug and stuff. I am sure the people at the cocktail parties are mightily impressed and utter lots of oohs and ahhhs.