CDC stats seasonal flu

[bigbearfng 18]

I'm not sure if anyone else has read this report? It's straight from the CDC. Perspective?

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

[gowlerk 2,192]

51 minutes ago, bigbearfng said:

I'm not sure if anyone else has read this report? It's straight from the CDC. Perspective?

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

We pretty much already know that. Flu has killed between 12,000 and 61,000 per year in the USA for the last few years. Part of the goal is to get this new virus down to that level in the future. We probably will have to live with that as a minimum, but we don't know.

By perspective, I guess you mean how does that compare with the current situation. This new virus is "novel" meaning none of us have any immunity to it right now. If we allow it to just have its way with us the estimates are that about 60% of the population will get sick. 330 million Americans equals 198 million illnesses. They think 20% of those will need hospital care, that is 39 million. Maybe 20% of those will need intensive care including ventilators is about 7.8 million. 20 % of those people will die, or 1.56 million. So to give the perspective you are looking for, how does 61,000 compare to 1.56 million?

Of course all these numbers are estimates and not proven. They also do not say anything about the effect of the healthcare system being completely overwhelmed for an unknown period of time. Anyone else getting sick or injured and needing treatment will have to compete with the needs of all these victims. How would you feel as a nurse working in a New York hospital right now and seeing some of your co-workers dying as well as knowing that you are likely bringing the virus home to you family?

Perspective? This is a magnitude of order more serious that the flu.

Edited April 1, 2020 by gowlerk

[SkyDekker 1,465]

1 hour ago, bigbearfng said:

I'm not sure if anyone else has read this report? It's straight from the CDC. Perspective?

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Perspective being that with the actions you have taken so far, you will still blow by the annual flu deaths. Imagine what happens if you do nothing?

These comparisons to the flu are really useless.

[gowlerk 2,192]

3 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

These comparisons to the flu are really useless.

That is very true. And it is an insult to front line heath workers who will die from this. That does not happen with influenza.

[bigbearfng 18]

38 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

That is very true. And it is an insult to front line heath workers who will die from this. That does not happen with influenza.

What makes you think front line health workers haven't died from seasonal flu?  

Also different strains of Corona virus have been here for a long time-they were already included on the respiratory path panel.

[gowlerk 2,192]

2 minutes ago, bigbearfng said:

What makes you think front line health workers haven't died from seasonal flu?  

Also different strains of Corona virus have been here for a long time-they were already included on the respiratory path panel.

I'm not arguing with you about it. If you want to believe there is a valid comparison go right ahead.

[bigbearfng 18]

5 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

I'm not arguing with you about it. If you want to believe there is a valid comparison go right ahead.

I hope everyone greatly improves their basic hygiene at least after this. It would help with the spread of all diseases. Every time I see a guy walkout of a public restroom without washing his hands after taking a dump I want to yell at him. And then he's out pushing a cart around the store-then some else pushes that cart-then goes to the food court and eats a sandwich without washing their hands.... hepatitis A also anyone?

[airdvr 210]

In the beginning of all this I felt the way you do.  I've since changed my tune based on what I've seen worldwide.  I've had a heart attack, I smoked for almost 50 years.  If I get it I'm as good as done.  Talked with my wife today more about hospice than going to an ER and clogging up a bed that might be used to help someone.  With hospice she could at least get good comfort drugs.

[gowlerk 2,192]

2 minutes ago, airdvr said:

In the beginning of all this I felt the way you do.  I've since changed my tune based on what I've seen worldwide.  I've had a heart attack, I smoked for almost 50 years.  If I get it I'm as good as done.  Talked with my wife today more about hospice than going to an ER and clogging up a bed that might be used to help someone.  With hospice she could at least get good comfort drugs.

I just read an interesting NPR story on just who is doing most of the dying. I'm 62 and a 25 year smoker who quit 20 years ago and still in good health. So I'm in better shape than you are. But I have read the descriptions of what happens to people who get a bad case of this thing and it is not how I am wishing for the end to come for me. If your heart condition has been well controlled and treated you may have better odds than you are assuming.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/31/824846243/whos-sickest-from-covid-19-these-conditions-tied-to-increased-risk

 

[kallend 2,027]

I've yet to see a study that separates out the effect of age alone from the effects of underlying conditions that are often associated with the elderly (of which I am one, at 74, but at least I never smoked - anything).

[airdvr 210]

29 minutes ago, kallend said:

I've yet to see a study that separates out the effect of age alone from the effects of underlying conditions that are often associated with the elderly (of which I am one, at 74, but at least I never smoked - anything).

Yea...you and Clinton 

[kallend 2,027]

2 hours ago, airdvr said:

Yea...you and Clinton 

He smoked, he just didn't inhale.

I never smoked.

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

What about it?

Flu is dangerous. That's why they push the flu vaccine so hard.
That's why the CDC puts out all those ads about hand washing and coughing into your elbow. 

According to those stats, flu is fatal in about 0.1% of cases. That's 1 in 1000.

Covid 19 is fatal in about 3.5% of cases. That number varies from place to place. Germany is seeing very low fatality numbers. Italy is around 10%, but that may be because they aren't testing a lot of people who may be sick.

3% would be one in 33 cases dies. 

 

30 times more fatal. Plus there's no vaccine. Plus there's no acquired immunity (the flu comes in different strains, but some are close enough to others that immunity to one provides some protection against others).

That's why health care professionals aren't dying from the flu much. It happens, but it's rare. 
They all get vaccinated. So they have a decent amount of protection. 
Not at all available for this. 

 

To compare Covid-19 to the flu is like comparing a 182 to an F-16.

I agree that basic hygiene could stand improvement. But it doesn't seem to be a real issue.
There aren't a lot of people getting sick from it.

OTOH, I use public bathrooms all the time. I've seen waaaaaay to many guys walk out of the stall, past the sinks and grab the door handle. 
I've been using a paper towel to open the door, and then an elbow or toe on the exit door (those all open outwards) for a long time. 

[JerryBaumchen 1,363]

35 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

To compare Covid-19 to the flu is like comparing a 182 to an F-16.

Hi Joe,

But, but, Trump said . . . . . 

Jerry Baumchen