Coincidence, or enemy action?

[kallend 2,027]

What a terrible weekend for accidents.

Without getting involved in the minutiae of each accident, is there a message in the big picture here? Or is it just statistical noise?

"We have met the enemy, and he is us"

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[wmw999 2,452]

I'm not yet sure there's a big picture; it was relatively quiet for awhile, this weekend was pretty terrible.

The biggest upside to dz.com is the quick communication and learning that can come. But the biggest downside is the number of people who can then look at a simplistic analysis of an incident, then say "well, I'll never make that mistake."

It might be time to take some charts and look at them though, and see what pops out.

Wendy W.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[billvon 2,996]

If there was a common theme, there might be one area to concentrate on. But we have:

BASE deployment problem
BASE big-wall fatality
Tandem student harness problem
CRW exit problem
Low toggle turn
Low canopy collision

Doesn't sound like a persistent problem in one area.

[kelpdiver 2]

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What a terrible weekend for accidents.

Without getting involved in the minutiae of each accident, is there a message in the big picture here? Or is it just statistical noise?

It was the first long weekend of summer - a lot of jumping was going on. And it's long enough into springtime that people are off their winter rust.

I have a gut theory that in the dangerous sports the accidents come in bursts after which people are more cautious until enough time has passed to lose that edge and get the next burst. But I've never been able to establish it more firmly, and as Bill says nothing about this weekend indicates a widespread failure in care.

So I'm hoping it's just bad noise that we won't see again this year.

[tombuch 0]

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Without getting involved in the minutiae of each accident, is there a message in the big picture here? Or is it just statistical noise?

I think it is noise, but there is a message is to stay current and aware, and avoid complacency. When we have a weekend like this one I often think of the USPA Director of Safety and Training (currently Jim Crouch) who has to go into work every Monday and face those accidents, and the questions and investigations. That's a Kinda crappy way to start each week.
.

Tom Buchanan
Instructor Emeritus
Comm Pilot MSEL,G
Author: JUMP! Skydiving Made Fun and Easy

[georgerussia 0]

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Doesn't sound like a persistent problem in one area.

I think it is about the numbers.
For example, it was very calm for a while, and then got one non-fatal accident, and two cutaways (one of them was mine) in the same day.

* Don't pray for me if you wanna help - just send me a check. *

[bloody_trauma 2]

I'd say it has alot to with it being memorial day weekend, not pointing fingers though... alcohol has been known to cause impaired judgement and memorial day and alcohol are close friends

Fly it like you stole it

[MB38 0]

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I'd say it has alot to with it being memorial day weekend, not pointing fingers though... alcohol has been known to cause impaired judgement and memorial day and alcohol are close friends

I do not believe that alcohol has been linked to any of this past weekend's incidents. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

I really don't know what I'm talking about.

[bloody_trauma 2]

well its not only that but people tend to get a little more complacent whne on holiday, statistically there are lot more accidents that happen around days like memorial day when people are traveling and away from home, but they do also say your more likely to injure yourself when closer to home when around thing familiar to you, I'm kinda tiptoeing around on this one, everyones nerves are raw right now after what happened to GFD and all the other fatalities that took place this last weekend

Fly it like you stole it

[AFFI 0]

Seems like Bloody is just kidding...

[georgerussia 0]

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alcohol has been known to cause impaired judgement and memorial day and alcohol are close friends

Well, it was definitely out of question in our case, and I really doubt it for the rest of people.

* Don't pray for me if you wanna help - just send me a check. *

[kelpdiver 2]

it is a factor that can be present, as is lack of sleep or dehydration with the heat. I remember at last year's American Boogie that people were a bit out of it on load 1 on that Saturday, and the rest of the people on the ground were still coming back from the dead.

I had intended to jump Fri-Sun, but the work week plus the Friday sun had me sleeping in on Saturday.

[dorbie 0]

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What a terrible weekend for accidents.

Without getting involved in the minutiae of each accident, is there a message in the big picture here? Or is it just statistical noise?

When I saw this I thought it might be related to some people doing more and pushing themselves a bit farther on the memorial day weekend. That's not to say everyone involved did this.

It's a big enough cluster to merit serious consideration.

There were also a couple of cutaway incidents not so long ago at a holiday boogie.

One option would be to do a statistical analysis of incidents vs holidays & major boogies (normaliziing if possible for additional jumps done) and if there is a correlation raise awareness to help jumpers understand that they should be vigilant and as cautious as they normally would be during events/holidays. Lots of jumpers don't realize the risk they take in all sorts of ways (not excluding myself here) and you invariably discover this too late for yourself or someone else. A small adjustment in attitude or awareness might have disastrous consequences and we may all have been there, done that and walked away because we were lucky, completely oblivious of any additional risk.

[Programmer 0]

A real quick scan of incidents shows several of these clusters. For example, 1 base fatality and 2 in a single canopy collision in Europe over the weekend of 6-7 May; in 2005 over the weekend of July 4th, 1 TI killed in a collision, 2 swoopers in a single canopy collision, and a base fatality in France. Memorial day weekend might have stood out more because of the unusual nature of one incident and the fact that a couple of the people who were lost were well known and their passing generated a lot of comments. As Billvon pointed out, there's no common element here. The people involved were current, they were experienced - something went wrong. I'm trying to think of something eloquent to make sense of it, but all I can think of is BSBD.

[diverdriver 5]

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What a terrible weekend for accidents.

Without getting involved in the minutiae of each accident, is there a message in the big picture here? Or is it just statistical noise?

"We have met the enemy, and he is us"

A confluence of random events? It will be impossible to prove and you will always have neh'sayers but I do believe that some, not all events this past weekend can be attributed to it being Memorial Day weekend. The summer kickoff.

I was told once that most work related accidents happen either the first hour of the shift or the last hour of the shit. This was the first big weekend of the jumping year. Coincidence? I don't think you can prove a threaded link but in the back of our minds I bet we think it's at least possible.

Chris Schindler
www.diverdriver.com
ATP/D-19012
FB #4125

[airtwardo 7]

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What a terrible weekend for accidents.

Without getting involved in the minutiae of each accident, is there a message in the big picture here? Or is it just statistical noise?

It was the first long weekend of summer - a lot of jumping was going on. And it's long enough into springtime that people are off their winter rust.

I have a gut theory that in the dangerous sports the accidents come in bursts after which people are more cautious until enough time has passed to lose that edge and get the next burst. But I've never been able to establish it more firmly, and as Bill says nothing about this weekend indicates a widespread failure in care.

So I'm hoping it's just bad noise that we won't see again this year.

***

I think you nailed it Jason.

~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~

[Tonto 1]

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memorial day and alcohol are close friends

Gotta call bullshit on that one. 2 of the incidents happened outside of the US to people who are not from the US - so memorial day doesn't exist for them.

2 of the incidents were also BASE and not Skydiving. Different countries, different sports, different nationalities.

Think Global.

t

It's the year of the Pig.

[Andy9o8 2]

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Think Global.

Point well taken. But it is also possible that, given the relatively large percentage of jumps world-wide that occur in the US, a 3-day holiday weekend in the US just might increase the chance of the US contributing a statistical blip in the number of skydiving and/or BASE accidents over that weekend, even when looking at it globally. For example, during the US Independence Day long weekend in 2005 (Sat July 2, 2005 – Mon July 4, 2005), on Sat. July 2, 2005 there was a fatality at one US DZ, and on Monday, July 4, 2005, two jumpers were killed in a single canopy collision at another US DZ. Add to that a BASE fatality in France on July 3, 2005, and you have 4 fatalities worldwide over that 3-day period (either in our community or our "sister" community), with 3 of them occurring in the US during one of its "holiday weekends". Now that’s just raw statistics, for whatever it’s worth.

This year, the 4th of July falls on a Tuesday. It’s always a huge party and event day in the US, and many people in the US may turn that into a 4-day long weekend. Let’s all remember the sting of this past Memorial Day weekend and keep ourselves, and each other, safe over the 4th.