Lefties and lockdowns

[JoeWeber 2,720]

16 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

My kids are more concerned about the Tower of Terror than with COVID.  My youngest brother is down in Florida now with his family, but they are at Universal.  He says the place is packed and they have to wait in line for more than an hour for the rides.  The bars and restaurants are busy and yet COVID cases continue to plummet.  Seems that not locking down is working just as well as lockdowns and without the collateral damage.

I'll pray for you.

[nwt 131]

3 hours ago, brenthutch said:

My kids are more concerned about the Tower of Terror than with COVID.  My youngest brother is down in Florida now with his family, but they are at Universal.  He says the place is packed and they have to wait in line for more than an hour for the rides.  The bars and restaurants are busy and yet COVID cases continue to plummet.  Seems that not locking down is working just as well as lockdowns and without the collateral damage.

So you're suggesting that COVID is not transmitted between people? Sorry, I forget which exact brand of crazy nonsense you've been spouting.

[brenthutch 444]

47 minutes ago, nwt said:

So you're suggesting that COVID is not transmitted between people? Sorry, I forget which exact brand of crazy nonsense you've been spouting.

Where the hell did I claim that?  I’m just pointing out the demonstrable fact that lockdowns have a marginal impact on covid. The benefit is small/negligible while the damage is significant 

Edited February 10, 2021 by brenthutch

[billvon 2,995]

47 minutes ago, nwt said:

So you're suggesting that COVID is not transmitted between people? Sorry, I forget which exact brand of crazy nonsense you've been spouting.

He is not posting that; he knows better.  He is posting to make you angry.  Looks like it's working.

[nwt 131]

2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Where the hell did I claim that?

You imply it pretty directly with:

2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

lockdowns have a marginal impact on covid

 

[nwt 131]

1 minute ago, billvon said:

He is not posting that; he knows better.  He is posting to make you angry.  Looks like it's working.

Nah

[jakee 1,497]

7 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Where the hell did I claim that?  I’m just pointing out the demonstrable fact that lockdowns have a marginal impact on covid. The benefit is small/negligible while the damage is significant 

This is a graph of daily cases in the UK. On the 5th of November we started a 1 month lockdown. On the 6th of January we started a lockdown we are still in. If I'd asked you to guess when those lockdowns occurred just by looking at the graph do you think you'd have been able to get it approximately right, or is the effect just too damn subtle to notice?

 

[kallend 2,027]

8 minutes ago, jakee said:

This is a graph of daily cases in the UK. On the 5th of November we started a 1 month lockdown. On the 6th of January we started a lockdown we are still in. If I'd asked you to guess when those lockdowns occurred just by looking at the graph do you think you'd have been able to get it approximately right, or is the effect just too damn subtle to notice?

 

But, but, cases INCREASED from Jan 24 to Jan 28 and again from Feb 2 to Feb 4.   

Using the statistical methods Brenthutch uses in the climate threads, this shows distinctly that there has been no reduction.

[brenthutch 444]

2 hours ago, jakee said:

This is a graph of daily cases in the UK. On the 5th of November we started a 1 month lockdown. On the 6th of January we started a lockdown we are still in. If I'd asked you to guess when those lockdowns occurred just by looking at the graph do you think you'd have been able to get it approximately right, or is the effect just too damn subtle to notice?

 

Wow!  That looks just like Florida’s graph.

https://youtu.be/EiUcY4dECqA

Replace “bear patrol” with lockdowns 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 10, 2021 by brenthutch

[sfzombie13 324]

14 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Wow!  That looks just like Florida’s graph.

https://youtu.be/EiUcY4dECqA

Replace “bear patrol” with lockdowns 

 

 

 

 

big difference when one graph, the other one, shows what happens during a lockdown, while this one shows what happens when you slow down and stop testing.  nice try comrade.

[jakee 1,497]

22 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Wow!  That looks just like Florida’s graph.

It doesn't. It really, really doesn't. 

Where is Florida's halving of cases from mid November to early December? Where is Florida's 2/3rds reduction from early January to today? Again, this persona of yours - is it supposed to oblivious or perfidious?

[brenthutch 444]

27 minutes ago, jakee said:

It doesn't. It really, really doesn't. 

Where is Florida's halving of cases from mid November to early December? Where is Florida's 2/3rds reduction from early January to today? Again, this persona of yours - is it supposed to oblivious or perfidious?

Because Florida never went into a hard lockdown, their curve is much flatter.  More herd immunity = less of a spike.  Take a look at Sweden’s curve and compare it to the UK as a reference.

 

 

[olofscience 480]

11 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

More herd immunity = less of a spike.

They've had more vaccine?

On 2/1/2021 at 3:44 PM, brenthutch said:

Vaccination is how “herd immunity” is achieved.......(face palm)

You have no idea how herd immunity works, do you?

[brenthutch 444]

24 minutes ago, olofscience said:

They've had more vaccine?

You have no idea how herd immunity works, do you?

I’ll take a shot.  

When enough of the population develops antibodies, either through vaccination or exposure to the virus, that the transmission chain is broken.

How did I do?

BTW cases started dropping before the vaccine was widely available.

Edited February 10, 2021 by brenthutch

[brenthutch 444]

30 minutes ago, olofscience said:

They've had more vaccine?

You have no idea how herd immunity works, do you?

So when Europeans came to the Americas bringing diseases that decimated the native populations, the Europeans were unaffected because they had developed herd immunity via their robust vaccination program?

[BIGUN 1,317]

1 minute ago, brenthutch said:

So when Europeans came to the Americas bringing diseases that decimated the native populations, the Europeans were unaffected because they had developed herd immunity via their robust vaccination program?

Hold on. As mentioned earlier, there are two types of herd immunity - Natural herd immunity and vaccine herd immunity. 

[olofscience 480]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

When enough of the population develops antibodies, either through vaccination or exposure to the virus, that the transmission chain is broken.

How did I do?

How many is "enough of the population"?

Reciting dumbed-down explanations isn't really as impressive as you think it is. It makes you look like a whuffo pretending to be a skydiver on a dating app.

[brenthutch 444]

1 minute ago, olofscience said:

How many is "enough of the population"?

Reciting dumbed-down explanations isn't really as impressive as you think it is. 

Depends on several variables, and I replied with my audience in mind.

[olofscience 480]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

So when Europeans came to the Americas bringing diseases that decimated the native populations, the Europeans were unaffected because they had developed herd immunity via their robust vaccination program?

And what was the cost in European lives, to develop that herd immunity? You'd like that to be paid again today?

I hate to break it to you, but you don't own most of the lives that natural herd immunity will cost. It's not your decision whether that price will be paid.

[olofscience 480]

2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Depends on several variables, and I replied with my audience in mind.

No, don't dumb it down for me, I can handle it.

Again, another common excuse by fake skydivers when they're caught lying...

[brenthutch 444]

15 minutes ago, olofscience said:

No, don't dumb it down for me, I can handle it.

Again, another common excuse by fake skydivers when they're caught lying...

I’m not lying.  The numbers speak for themselves.

United Kingdom that locked down:  deaths per million of population-1750.  Running seven day average of deaths per million-67

Sweden which didn’t lock down is 1184  and 24 respectively.

 

 

[olofscience 480]

1 minute ago, brenthutch said:

I’m not lying.  The numbers speak for themselves.

United Kingdom that locked down:  deaths per million of population-1750.  Running seven day average of deaths per million-67

Sweden which didn’t lock down is 1184  and 24 respectively.

Well didn't you just say it depends on several variables?

28 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Depends on several variables, and I replied with my audience in mind.

So for the UK - Sweden comparison, you'd need to account for:

• UK population density vs. Sweden's population density
• UK's policies for sick leave vs Sweden's policies (hint: people self-isolate more effectively in Sweden because of more generous policies, UK has thousands of people disobeying due to financial reasons)
• other variables that I've probably missed

As several other posters have mentioned, if you compare Sweden with Denmark, Norway and Finland, 2 countries which are a lot more similar to Sweden than the UK in terms of these variables, you get:

[olofscience 480]

27 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

I’m not lying.  The numbers speak for themselves.

United Kingdom that locked down:  deaths per million of population-1750.  Running seven day average of deaths per million-67

Sweden which didn’t lock down is 1184  and 24 respectively.

Finland and Norway locked down, are much more similar to Sweden than the UK, and have a much smaller fraction of cases and deaths.

It's strange how Sweden's socialist policies are so hated by conservatives in the US, but when they screw up their covid response suddenly they're a shining example. One moment conservatives say that they're a country full of muslim migrants that somehow makes them the rape capital of the world, the next moment they're a "much more homogenous society than the US". Which is it?

Edited February 10, 2021 by olofscience

[brenthutch 444]

6 minutes ago, olofscience said:

12 minutes ago, olofscience said:

Finland and Norway locked down, are much more similar to Sweden than the UK, and have a much smaller fraction of cases and deaths.

 

You correctly identified population density as a key variable.  Sweden has about double the population density as Norway and Finland, so it’s not a valid comparison.

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

27 minutes ago, olofscience said:

Finland and Norway locked down, are much more similar to Sweden than the UK, and have a much smaller fraction of cases and deaths.

It's strange how Sweden's socialist policies are so hated by conservatives in the US, but when they screw up their covid response suddenly they're a shining example. One moment conservatives say that they're a country full of muslim migrants that somehow makes them the rape capital of the world, the next moment they're a "much more homogenous society than the US". Which is it?

Which one?

Whichever one suits the lies they want to spew at any given time.