NOAA Report on sea level rise

[kallend 2,026]

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html

The Next 30 Years of Sea Level Rise

Sea level along the U.S. coastline is projected to rise, on average, 10 - 12 inches (0.25 - 0.30 meters) in the next 30 years (2020 - 2050), which will be as much as the rise measured over the last 100 years (1920 - 2020). Sea level rise will vary regionally along U.S. coasts because of changes in both land and ocean height.

More Damaging Flooding Projected

Sea level rise will create a profound shift in coastal flooding over the next 30 years by causing tide and storm surge heights to increase and reach further inland. By 2050, “moderate” (typically damaging) flooding is expected to occur, on average, more than 10 times as often as it does today, and can be intensified by local factors.

 

Emissions Matter

Current and future emissions matter. About 2 feet (0.6 meters) of sea level rise along the U.S. coastline is increasingly likely between 2020 and 2100 because of emissions to date. Failing to curb future emissions could cause an additional 1.5 - 5 feet (0.5 - 1.5 meters) of rise for a total of 3.5 - 7 feet (1.1 - 2.1 meters) by the end of this century.

[wmw999 2,444]

Until central Pennsylvania floods with seawater there isn’t a problem, is there?

Wendy P. 

[gowlerk 2,190]

34 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

Until central Pennsylvania floods with seawater there isn’t a problem, is there?

Wendy P. 

But it will flood with refugees first. That'll be troublesome.

[billvon 2,991]

Just now, gowlerk said:

But it will flood with refugees first. That'll be troublesome.

Not if you build a wall.

Personally I am looking forward to my house becoming waterfront property; seas only have to rise about 80 feet for that.

[kallend 2,026]

39 minutes ago, billvon said:

Not if you build a wall.

Personally I am looking forward to my house becoming waterfront property; seas only have to rise about 80 feet for that.

40ft rise in the great lakes will give me a lakefront house.

[gowlerk 2,190]

33 minutes ago, kallend said:

40ft rise in the great lakes will give me a lakefront house.

It would I suppose. But the last time I checked they were still fresh water lakes and unlikely to be greatly affected by sea level rise.

[Phil1111 1,149]

 

4 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

It would I suppose. But the last time I checked they were still fresh water lakes and unlikely to be greatly affected by sea level rise.

ya shure? Its a rise in the level of the local lakes.

[CygnusX-1 43]

20 hours ago, billvon said:

Not if you build a wall.

Personally I am looking forward to my house becoming waterfront property; seas only have to rise about 80 feet for that.

Seas only have to rise about 10 feet (maybe less) for it to happen to me. Bring on climate change! I never liked my neighbors to the east anyway.

[brenthutch 444]

This would require a nearly doubling in the rate of sea level rise that we have experienced in the last hundred years.  This will be easy to confirm or falsify.

[wmw999 2,444]

44 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

This would require a nearly doubling in the rate of sea level rise that we have experienced in the last hundred years.  This will be easy to confirm or falsify.

You are unlikely to still be alive in another hundred years, I’d figure. Safe bet, right?

Wendy P. 

[brenthutch 444]

Just now, wmw999 said:

You are unlikely to still be alive in another hundred years, I’d figure. Safe bet, right?

Wendy P. 

I do expect to be around in thirty.  

[SkyDekker 1,465]

1 minute ago, wmw999 said:

You are unlikely to still be alive in another hundred years, I’d figure. Safe bet, right?

Wendy P. 

In his defense....did I just really type that......the equal rise is supposed to happen in 30 years. Don't know his exact age, but not unlikely he is still around....

[brenthutch 444]

If anyone were to take this report seriously, we will see a plummeting value in beachfront property and Obama would be ditching his ocean side bungalow in Hawaii.

[JoeWeber 2,720]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

If anyone were to take this report seriously, we will see a plummeting value in beachfront property and Obama would be ditching his ocean side bungalow in Hawaii.

Excellent. You managed to squeeze in a dig at Obama. 

[brenthutch 444]

10 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Excellent. You managed to squeeze in a dig at Obama. 

I’m pissed that he tore down the historic Robin’s Nest, from Magnum P.I. 

[billvon 2,991]

11 hours ago, brenthutch said:

If anyone were to take this report seriously, we will see a plummeting value in beachfront property and Obama would be ditching his ocean side bungalow in Hawaii.

And they are indeed crashing.  I guess some people do take science seriously.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/08/opinion/crashing-coastal-property-values-economic-fallout-climate-change/

[brenthutch 444]

2 hours ago, billvon said:

And they are indeed crashing.  I guess some people do take science seriously.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/08/opinion/crashing-coastal-property-values-economic-fallout-climate-change/

But…

https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/study-rising-seas-arent-causing-coastal-property-values-to-decline

“according to a new study co-authored by Yale SOM’s Matthew Spiegel, prices are not falling in the areas most likely to be affected.”  

 

[olofscience 480]

15 hours ago, brenthutch said:

But…

And random house buyers don't do quite as much risk assessment of rising sea levels...compared to insurers.

And guess what, some coastal homes will become uninsurable within the next 15 years.

(actually, it's already happening in the UK, and is only expected to become more widespread)

[gowlerk 2,190]

1 hour ago, olofscience said:

And random house buyers don't do quite as much risk assessment of rising sea levels...compared to insurers.

And guess what, some coastal homes will become uninsurable within the next 15 years.

(actually, it's already happening in the UK, and is only expected to become more widespread)

Could you put that into an easy to understand meme for the simple people here?

[NewGuy2005 53]

On 2/15/2022 at 3:52 PM, kallend said:

40ft rise in the great lakes will give me a lakefront house.

Think how awesome Niagra Falls will look with 40 feet of water going over the top.

[brenthutch 444]

On 2/15/2022 at 2:16 PM, kallend said:

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html

The Next 30 Years of Sea Level Rise

Sea level along the U.S. coastline is projected to rise, on average, 10 - 12 inches (0.25 - 0.30 meters) in the next 30 years (2020 - 2050), which will be as much as the rise measured over the last 100 years (1920 - 2020). Sea level rise will vary regionally along U.S. coasts because of changes in both land and ocean height.

More Damaging Flooding Projected

Sea level rise will create a profound shift in coastal flooding over the next 30 years by causing tide and storm surge heights to increase and reach further inland. By 2050, “moderate” (typically damaging) flooding is expected to occur, on average, more than 10 times as often as it does today, and can be intensified by local factors.

 

Emissions Matter

Current and future emissions matter. About 2 feet (0.6 meters) of sea level rise along the U.S. coastline is increasingly likely between 2020 and 2100 because of emissions to date. Failing to curb future emissions could cause an additional 1.5 - 5 feet (0.5 - 1.5 meters) of rise for a total of 3.5 - 7 feet (1.1 - 2.1 meters) by the end of this century.

That sounds familiar 

“in 1989, a senior U.N. environmental official claimed, “entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.” Obviously, those nations are still there.

Also, in 2005, the U.N. claimed, “Rising sea levels…will create up to 50 million environmental refugees by the end of the decade.”

[winsor 236]

27 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

That sounds familiar 

“in 1989, a senior U.N. environmental official claimed, “entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.” Obviously, those nations are still there.

Also, in 2005, the U.N. claimed, “Rising sea levels…will create up to 50 million environmental refugees by the end of the decade.”

That accounts for the influx at our Southern border.

Since it's All Our Fault, we should cater to every whim of these poor wretches.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

[Dr.SkyFall 28]

On 2/23/2022 at 8:58 AM, brenthutch said:

That sounds familiar 

“in 1989, a senior U.N. environmental official claimed, “entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.” Obviously, those nations are still there.

Also, in 2005, the U.N. claimed, “Rising sea levels…will create up to 50 million environmental refugees by the end of the decade.”

The first quote doesn't say that the nations will be destroyed by the year 2000, its sets the year 2000 as the 'trigger point' at which if the trend has not been reversed then these consequences will be unavoidable. The chain reaction has begun, now it is just a question of how much damage. Also they use the word could, not will.

 

The second quote says "...up to". Do you know how many environmental refugees there were that decade? Does not seem immediately obvious to me that  that figure is incorrect

[metalslug 36]

We've already had a glimpse of how green energy policies in the west have weakened their energy positions vs eastern dictators. Is there not perhaps a concern that reports such as these, the west's ocean rise predicament (or even perceived predicament) will only motivate future enemy leaders to go harder and faster at driving that trend? Does Russia and China, for example, stand to lose more than the rest of world due to ocean rise around their own countries? They don't seem genuinely concerned at this point.  At what point is the balance reached between saving a coastline vs saving an entire country?

Edited March 6, 2022 by metalslug

[lippy 918]

9 hours ago, metalslug said:

We've already had a glimpse of how green energy policies in the west have weakened their energy positions vs eastern dictators.

Many on here don't have the Fox News talking points decoder ring...I think you're referencing the "if Biden hadn't canceled Keystone, we'd be producing more oil and Russia wouldn't have as much leverage in the energy game" talking point....Is that what you're trying to say?