Ukraine

[jakee 1,489]

26 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

And that's different than EVERYTHING else he posts in what way??

They're actually good at it.

[gowlerk 2,190]

What happens in Ukraine in the end is mostly up to how strong and long lasting the Ukrainian's will to resist turns out to be. It is clear that despite some Maga and other isolationist opposition US and other NATO nations will keep the support going as long as Ukraine can keep fighting. It is just as clear that Russia is far too weak and poorly run to get the results it wants, even with their propaganda machine running full blast. There is and has never been a clear natural border between Russia and Ukraine. Russia's ethnic cleansing of the areas it now controls is at least partly working. The Soviet era border will never be completely restored so the conflict must end with some sort of compromise. In the meantime bleeding and weakening Russia some more seems to be a great idea. Supporting Ukraine may seem expensive but is actually a pretty good bargain. 

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

30 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

... In the meantime bleeding and weakening Russia some more seems to be a great idea. Supporting Ukraine may seem expensive but is actually a pretty good bargain. 

Russia 'bled & weakened itself quite effectively.

The corruption and 'kleptocracy' left the '2nd most powerful military in the world' a hollow shell 

They couldn't even drive a convoy to Kyiv. The tires on the wheeled vehicles were so old they disintegrated.
'Cuz the commanders stole the money for maintenance.

Right now, the west is disposing of a LOT of old and outdated ordinance by giving it to Ukraine.

The 'cost' has already been paid. 
I've seen it suggested that proper disposal of a lot of that stuff would have cost a fair amount of money. Not as much as shipping it over there, but a significant portion.

Of course, Russia is also 'disposing' of old ordinance. The difference, however is that the 'storage' conditions in Russia are questionable. Artillery rounds are a good example. Many are failing to explode in midair as they are supposed to. The fuses have degraded. Some don't explode at all. Some fall short (landing on their own troops). Some just explode in the barrel of the gun (destroying the gun and killing the crew in the process). 

Ukraine is making slow progress, but it's progress. Russia is barely hanging on, and losing an incredible amount of troops and equipment in the process.
Nobody knows just how long either Russia or Ukraine can continue. 

The answer to that will determine the outcome of the war (yeah, Captain Obvious at your service).

[gowlerk 2,190]

1 minute ago, wolfriverjoe said:

The answer to that will determine the outcome of the war (yeah, Captain Obvious at your service).

There will have to be a border between the countries. You can still see the recognized border displayed in google maps. I have no idea how it was drawn, but when Soviet Union controlled both countries it worked. It is a zig zag line that makes a Mississippi gerrymandered district look sensible. It follows rivers only in a few small sections. It probably was originally set up based on the linguistic identity of villages nearby. There is just no way it could work between two hostile nations. 

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

Just now, gowlerk said:

There will have to be a border between the countries. You can still see the recognized border displayed in google maps. I have no idea how it was drawn, but when Soviet Union controlled both countries it worked. It is a zig zag line that makes a Mississippi gerrymandered district look sensible. It follows rivers only in a few small sections. It probably was originally set up based on the linguistic identity of villages nearby. There is just no way it could work between two hostile nations. 

That's true of many international borders.

Ukraine's stated goal is to expel all Russians from Ukrainian territory. 

They want the 2014 borders.

With current drone tech, it wouldn't be all that hard to police & enforce. 

Depending on how Russia ends up at the end of everything, it may not be hard at all. 
Putin likely won't survive a loss to Ukraine (as in 'no longer alive').
Whatever/whoever takes over MAY want to be sure no more hostilities take place. 

I can see the potential for Ukraine to demand a DMZ a certain distance into Russia.

Say 20 miles. No military personnel or equipment. 
Drone surveillance to enforce it. 
Any tanks, armored vehicles, artillery or groups of military personnel over a certain size are subject to HIMARS attack.

Although there would be no motive for Ukraine to invade Russia, it could be a reciprocal DMZ (20 miles both sides of the border).

[gowlerk 2,190]

1 minute ago, wolfriverjoe said:

I can see the potential for Ukraine to demand a DMZ a certain distance into Russia.

I can see no realistic way Ukraine will be in a position to make any of those demands. Putin's end will not change Russia's nature. I understand that Russia is a corrupt place but the fact is that Ukraine is hardly any less so. The end of this conflict will involve a loss of territory for Ukraine. Barring a third world war with western armies getting involved that is. 

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

3 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

I can see no realistic way Ukraine will be in a position to make any of those demands. Putin's end will not change Russia's nature. I understand that Russia is a corrupt place but the fact is that Ukraine is hardly any less so. The end of this conflict will involve a loss of territory for Ukraine. Barring a third world war with western armies getting involved that is. 

Ukraine is not free from corruption.

But they're a LOOOOOOOONG way from what Russia is. To pretend there is any comparison any more is rather silly.

As far as making demands on Russia?
 

Maybe.

Maybe not.

It's not entirely out of the question that the military finally says 'fuck you, we quit'. 

The Russian navy has left Sevastapol. Which means they've basically abandoned the western Black Sea. Any time they sail, they get hit. So they really don't go out much.

The army is trying to retake various areas in the east. They make small gains, then Ukraine takes the territory back. 
During which the Russians suffer horrific losses. The Ukrainians are suffering losses too, but nowhere near as bad.

This is where western equipment is making a difference. 

While western supplied tanks and infantry fighting vehicles are getting hit, damaged and (a few) destroyed, the number of crew members getting killed or even seriously hurt is miniscule. 

OTOH, there was a Russian attack near Avdivka. They lost so many tanks & IFVs that their infantry was attacking unsupported. That is, without any tank or IFV support.
So they died in numbers reported to rival the Bakmuht debacle.

Near Kherson, the Ukrainians have established positions on the east bank of the Dnipro river. This is pretty big. If they can establish a good crossing, and get significant equipment across, the Russians are in trouble. If they can break through the lines, the Russians are seriously fucked. That's why the Russians are putting so many assets into defending it. One advantage the Ukrainians hold it the lay of the land. West bank has hills, east is flat. Ukraine has put tanks and artillery on the higher hills that have clear line of sight to the Russian positions. So the Russians have to hide in their trenches and bunkers, hoping not to get blown up by a direct hit.
This allows the Ukrainians crossing the river an easier time.

I don't have a crystal ball.

I don't even have access to decent information on what's really going on.

But all the info I can find makes it pretty clear that Russia is losing. 

Badly.

It's not in 'advances' or 'territory recaptured'. 

But in damage done, equipment destroyed, troops killed, that sort of thing.

[Phil1111 1,149]

15 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

I can see no realistic way Ukraine will be in a position to make any of those demands. Putin's end will not change Russia's nature. I understand that Russia is a corrupt place but the fact is that Ukraine is hardly any less so. The end of this conflict will involve a loss of territory for Ukraine. Barring a third world war with western armies getting involved that is. 

Ukraine ranks 21 places above Russia in the corruption perceptions index. It was just granted the right to start negotiations for EU membership three months ago. According to the Atlantic Council: "Historic progress: Ukraine receives green light for EU membership talks" 

In addition the EU just announced $50 billion Eu in aid to Ukraine, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said "provide predictable finance to Ukraine on its EU path,."

The Russian invasion is in its ninth year with western help really only for the last two. The Vietnam war lasted nineteen years and Putin is now 71.

[Phil1111 1,149]

1 minute ago, wolfriverjoe said:

....But all the info I can find makes it pretty clear that Russia is losing. 

Badly.

It's not in 'advances' or 'territory recaptured'. 

But in damage done, equipment destroyed, troops killed, that sort of thing.

Agree, Russia is losing. Their replacement troops average less than a weeks training before they are thrown into battle. Many of its best formations are long gone. Russia is scouring the scrap heaps of armor in every republic that it can so it can patch together T-54s and T-64s to throw into action. Alcoholism, drug use and a complete lack of discipline. Is forcing Russian commanders to restrict the issuance of weapons to troops shortly before they go to battle. Because brawls and battles have broken out in the barracks.

It is now trading satellite and nuclear technology with N. Korea so it can beg a few armored vehicles. The only place where Russia is winning is in the right wing forums of pro Putin puppets.

[gowlerk 2,190]

1 hour ago, Phil1111 said:

It is now trading satellite and nuclear technology with N. Korea so it can beg a few armored vehicles. The only place where Russia is winning is in the right wing forums of pro Putin puppets.

Yeah.....it's almost like you can see a light at the end of the tunnel. I just don't trust all the media and stories about how bad Russia is doing. Sure they are not doing well but they are not on their heels like some people seem to believe. They are dug into their positions and the have the resources to stay dug in. A big dose of realism is needed to counter the false optimism. Don't get me wrong, I am heavily in favour of supporting Ukraine for as long as they can keep it going. 

[Phil1111 1,149]

3 hours ago, gowlerk said:

Yeah.....it's almost like you can see a light at the end of the tunnel. I just don't trust all the media and stories about how bad Russia is doing. Sure they are not doing well but they are not on their heels like some people seem to believe. They are dug into their positions and the have the resources to stay dug in. A big dose of realism is needed to counter the false optimism. Don't get me wrong, I am heavily in favour of supporting Ukraine for as long as they can keep it going. 

Russia can do badly for a long long time. They can lose millions and millions of dead. But its Putin's war alone. Now he certainly has the reputation of not backing down. But if there is one fact that Ukraine knows for certain. Its that Putin and Russia never live up to agreements or treaties.

[jakee 1,489]

27 minutes ago, Slim King said:

Morning Joe ADMITS... 00.25% of taken territory is all they have gotten back in this war .. over a $100 Billion WASTED as Russia still controls 99.75% of what they took ...

Well that's obviously untrue. The blue shaded area below is territory taken by Russia during the 2022 invasion and regained by Ukraine. You don't have to be particularly good at maths to see that it is more than a quarter of a percent.

Edited November 27, 2023 by jakee

[billvon 2,991]

1 minute ago, jakee said:

Well that's obviously untrue. 

Come on.  He only slipped two decimal places.  I mean, it's truthy.

[Phil1111 1,149]

21 minutes ago, jakee said:

Well that's obviously untrue. The blue shaded area below is territory taken by Russia during the 2022 invasion and regained by Ukraine. You don't have to be particularly good at maths to see that it is more than a quarter of a percent.

 

19 minutes ago, billvon said:

Come on.  He only slipped two decimal places.  I mean, it's truthy.

Blinken: Ukraine has already retaken 50 percent of occupied territory   Clearly the Saint Petersburg School #74 doesn't have a very good math program. The Putin troll farm is also slipping to suggest that there is another Morning Joe in America besides the CNBC ex-congressman republican.

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

1 hour ago, billvon said:

Come on.  He only slipped two decimal places.  I mean, it's truthy.

Oh come on.

He's showed multiple times that he can't represent a percentage as a decimal. 

Funny how it always is a mistake that makes his position look better.

[Phil1111 1,149]

30 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Oh come on.

He's showed multiple times that he can't represent a percentage as a decimal. 

Funny how it always is a mistake that makes Putin's position look better.

FIFY

 

1 minute ago, Slim King said:

It was on YOUR SHOW... Morning Joe!!!!!

Reading comprehension and the separation of admitted conspiracy peddlers trolling. All for the benefit of an indicted war criminal and gangster state. Are other issues that he can't seem to separate from reality.

[billvon 2,991]

52 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

He's showed multiple times that he can't represent a percentage as a decimal. 

But he is surely in the top 99.99% of IQ!

[headoverheels 333]

Protests in Russia, wives and other relatives of soldiers.   No replacements available for rotation, so some soldiers have been been on continuous deployment since the beginning.   Also, not getting paid on time, if at all.

[jakee 1,489]

6 hours ago, Slim King said:

It was on YOUR SHOW... Morning Joe!!!!!

No it wasn’t. 

[jakee 1,489]

5 hours ago, Slim King said:

Russia pulled back their troops after they destroyed over 40 illegal Bio-Labs....

Russia pulled back after their invasion convoy was stopped and they failed to take Kyiv. They never intended to give up that ground and have their atrocious war crimes and mass civilian graves in Bucha and other towns exposed. 
 

The bio lab thing is pure fiction. I don’t think even the Kremlin claims that’s what happened.

[headoverheels 333]

Russian troop losses hit a new record in November, previously at a high last March.  Averaging over 900 soldiers per day, largely because of their attack on Avdiivka.

Edited November 28, 2023 by headoverheels

[gowlerk 2,190]

5 hours ago, jakee said:

The bio lab thing is pure fiction. I don’t think even the Kremlin claims that’s what happened.

40 biolabs? Who needs so many? How would you staff them?

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

5 hours ago, headoverheels said:

Russian troop losses hit a new record in November, previously at a high last March.  Averaging over 900 soldiers per day, largely because of their attack on Avdiivka.

Gotta wonder how many of those were killed by Russian 'barrier troops', who murder other Russians who retreat.

[jakee 1,489]

2 hours ago, Slim King said:

Now NATO is backing out. They can't let anyone join NATO that is involved in a war.

That has been the case since day one of the Russian invasion in 2014. This is yet another of those times you’re making a big song and dance about discovering something everyone else already knew. It just shows how uninformed you are. What NATO will do is admit Ukraine as soon as the current conflict is over.

2 hours ago, Slim King said:

This is HILARIOUS!!!!! Russia has everything they needed to prevent another 15,000 murders by the Nazi division of the Ukrainian troops.

So not only do you support Russia’s war in Ukraine, you think it’s funny? That’s evil. 

[jakee 1,489]

22 minutes ago, Slim King said:

I support the TRUTH!!!!! 

The truth that everyone except you already knew? 

Anyway, your post was quite clear - you support Russia's invasion of Ukraine, you're happy that (you think) they've achieved the goals of their bloody and brutal war, and you think what has happened there is hilarious. 

I can;t think of much that's more evil than that.