Ukraine

[piisfish 140]

Voldemort Putin

[BIGUN 1,409]

7 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Keith,

See Post #481.

I know, Jerry. I was kinda reaching there, but  . . . well, you know where I stand.

[Erroll 80]

On 3/7/2022 at 7:37 PM, JoeWeber said:

Of course it won't be a "no-fly zone". It also won't be a pickle barrel, a '59 Edsel or a pepperoni pizza. 

Seen on Twitter: "McDonalds Establishes No-Fry Zone"

[jakee 1,563]

16 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

IMO Putin now realizes that he has misjudged the west. As John Bolton said on Sunday. If trump had be re-elected Russia would have occupied all of Ukraine six months ago.

Putin knows that he has to recalculate the equation. That perhaps, he should have invaded Belarus instead.

What are you talking about? Belarus has a Russian puppet government. Russia literally invaded Ukraine through Belarus. The convoy attempting to reach Kyiv was staged out of Belarus. To most intents and purposes Belarus is already part of Russia.

Edited March 9, 2022 by jakee

[Phil1111 1,149]

40 minutes ago, jakee said:

What are you talking about? Belarus has a Russian puppet government. Russia literally invaded Ukraine through Belarus. The convoy attempting to reach Kyiv was staged out of Belarus. To most intents and purposes Belarus is already part of Russia.

The Russian people haven't been taught that yet. Any victory in Ukraine may result in a new definition of Pyrrhic. Putin needs distraction, satisfaction of his grievances. Try to get with the program jakee.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Phil1111

[jakee 1,563]

1 hour ago, Phil1111 said:

The Russian people haven't been taught that yet. Any victory in Ukraine may result in a new definition of Pyrrhic. Putin needs distraction, satisfaction of his grievances. Try to get with the program jakee.

Well, no. Putin didn’t invade Ukraine just for a domestic message, he did it for (what he thinks are) legitimate strategic and economic objectives. Now the war is going badly he still doesn’t need a distraction for the populace because he has instead used it as cover for going Full Soviet on state control of the media. On the flip side, as the world turns against him Ukraine is even more strategically valuable as (in his paranoid fantasies) a buffer against invasion, and the huge oil and gas reserves even more crucial to their economy as the only thing left they’re able to sell.

[ryoder 1,590]

An interesting point made by someone on another forum:

The US and NATO are dragging their feet about providing combat aircraft to Ukraine, over the fear of antagonizing a nuclear power.

In the Vietnam War, North Vietnam was getting MIG's from Russia, and also Chinese built MIG's from China, both nuclear powers.

[Phil1111 1,149]

14 minutes ago, ryoder said:

An interesting point made by someone on another forum:

The US and NATO are dragging their feet about providing combat aircraft to Ukraine, over the fear of antagonizing a nuclear power.

In the Vietnam War, North Vietnam was getting MIG's from Russia, and also Chinese built MIG's from China, both nuclear powers.

Not quite the whole story "There is one reported ace pilot from the USSR, Col. Vadim Shcherbakov who is credited with 6 air-to-air kills.^[16]"

The other Russian and Chinese combat pilots during the Vietnam war were more modest.

[JerryBaumchen 1,439]

Hi folks,

This just about flushes Ukraine down the proverbial drain:  U.S. closes door on sending fighter jets to Ukraine - POLITICO

A real Chamberlainesk position:  any action by the U.S. or NATO allies to provide jets could be seen by Russia as an act of aggression and lead to an escalation of its attack.

IMO a gutless position to take.

Jerry Baumchen

[gowlerk 2,249]

47 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

This just about flushes Ukraine down the proverbial drain:  U.S. closes door on sending fighter jets to Ukraine - POLITICO

A real Chamberlainesk position:  any action by the U.S. or NATO allies to provide jets could be seen by Russia as an act of aggression and lead to an escalation of its attack.

IMO a gutless position to take.

Jerry Baumchen

The defense and state departments along with the political leadership seem to be on different pages here. There is a battle brewing I think.

[ryoder 1,590]

1 hour ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

This just about flushes Ukraine down the proverbial drain:  U.S. closes door on sending fighter jets to Ukraine - POLITICO

A real Chamberlainesk position:  any action by the U.S. or NATO allies to provide jets could be seen by Russia as an act of aggression and lead to an escalation of its attack.

IMO a gutless position to take.

Jerry Baumchen

It is September 1939 and the free world is tip-toeing around, afraid that if they upset the Nazis, the war might spread beyond Poland.

[metalslug 36]

4 hours ago, gowlerk said:

The defense and state departments along with the political leadership seem to be on different pages here. There is a battle brewing I think.

It does seem odd to me that they would be not be on same page before making any promises of this magnitude. Is there a chance that this was always to be a token gesture to placate a desperate request?; "Hey, we tried, but the other guys said no. The US almost got you jets."

4 hours ago, ryoder said:

It is September 1939 and the free world is tip-toeing around, afraid that if they upset the Nazis, the war might spread beyond Poland.

The 'madman with multiple nukes' scenario is what separates this from 1939. If Putin is bluffing then his bluff is strengthened by the likely expectation that western nuclear powers would hesitate to return fire with WMDs to punish the actions of one man, hence M.A.D. is now also less of a deterrent. 'Tip-toes' might be only way to go for quite a long while still.

The Putin ambition may certainly spread beyond Ukraine but, if unprovoked, I'm less convinced at this stage that the war will. Not anytime soon, not without help from his friends. To Olof's earlier comment; I suspect the Ukrainian engagement has cost him and weakened him much more than he expected and he still has to hold that ground after, while the sanctions bite down. 

[jakee 1,563]

7 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

This just about flushes Ukraine down the proverbial drain:  U.S. closes door on sending fighter jets to Ukraine - POLITICO

A real Chamberlainesk position:  any action by the U.S. or NATO allies to provide jets could be seen by Russia as an act of aggression and lead to an escalation of its attack.

IMO a gutless position to take.

Jerry Baumchen

Especially since they’re telling Poland they should do it unilaterally without involving anyone else.
 

So the whole of NATO is scared to antagonise Putin, but their position is that a relatively small country which shares a border with Russia and has nuclear missiles stationed 20 minutes from their capital should be happy to antagonise Putin all in their own.

[olofscience 489]

2 hours ago, metalslug said:

The Putin ambition may certainly spread beyond Ukraine but, if unprovoked

As said here many times - Putin has never needed any provocation before, and he won't need any provocation in the future.

Bullies will do what they want. To stop them you have to hit back as hard as you can.

[airdvr 210]

18 hours ago, ryoder said:

An interesting point made by someone on another forum:

The US and NATO are dragging their feet about providing combat aircraft to Ukraine, over the fear of antagonizing a nuclear power.

In the Vietnam War, North Vietnam was getting MIG's from Russia, and also Chinese built MIG's from China, both nuclear powers.

You've stated the very reason we weren't allowed to "win" in Vietnam.

[kallend 2,106]

9 hours ago, ryoder said:

It is September 1939 and the free world is tip-toeing around, afraid that if they upset the Nazis, the war might spread beyond Poland.

The UK declared war on Germany 1100 GMT on September 3, 1939, and France a few hours later, followed by Canada, Australia, South Africa, Rhodesia, New Zealand. . . . . . I guess you aren't including them in "the free world".

[metalslug 36]

2 hours ago, olofscience said:

As said here many times - Putin has never needed any provocation before, and he won't need any provocation in the future.

I suspect that's a minority opinion, certainly not shared by NATO. They have repeatedly cited concerns over 'escalation', which is synonymous with provocation in this context.

Quote

Russia, with their economy already smaller than Italy before the invasion, will be going bankrupt even without counting the ongoing military expenses. They probably have until June at the latest. They'll run out of ammo, out of money, and out of friends.

When this happens, what do you suppose Putin may do next? Pack up his troops and withdraw? ...maybe launch a nuke?  Would you expect that direct military action by NATO within Ukraine right now would change Putin's action decisions either way ? ...if you believe that provocation absolutely doesn't factor into his decision making.

[olofscience 489]

48 minutes ago, metalslug said:

I suspect that's a minority opinion, certainly not shared by NATO. They have repeatedly cited concerns over 'escalation', which is synonymous with provocation in this context.

As you said - in this context.

In the wider context, Putin himself has expressed an interest in rebuilding the USSR, and he'll probably pursue that with no prompting necessary.

48 minutes ago, metalslug said:

When this happens, what do you suppose Putin may do next? Pack up his troops and withdraw? ...maybe launch a nuke?  Would you expect that direct military action by NATO within Ukraine right now would change Putin's action decisions either way ? ...if you believe that provocation absolutely doesn't factor into his decision making.

Hopefully pack up and withdraw. But remember - Biden was warning that Putin had already decided to invade a week before, and lots of people spent a week mocking that warning, especially the Moscow media. None of the diplomatic efforts in the weeks and days before the invasion worked, so it does seem like Putin is the stubborn rather than the adaptable type of person. He may already have decided his end game, and nothing NATO does will change it, except maybe for when. Either way we have to be prepared for the worst.

Edited March 10, 2022 by olofscience

[Baksteen 84]

45 minutes ago, metalslug said:

When this happens, what do you suppose Putin may do next? Pack up his troops and withdraw? ...maybe launch a nuke?  Would you expect that direct military action by NATO within Ukraine right now would change Putin's action decisions either way ? ...if you believe that provocation absolutely doesn't factor into his decision making.

It's a tough situation and I am glad I do not have to make a decision.

Military action may be the exact excuse Putin needs to escalate this conflict.

But so may military INaction. Putin could just quietly move on to the next 'nazi militarised' non-NATO country after Ukraine. Finland maybe?

And what if it IS a NATO country that is being invaded next time? I mean, it's only one single country, right? Totally preferably to lose a single country to nuclear annihilation?

Also, in other news and regarding monetary sanctions:
Dutch companies import coal by ship from various countries, including South Africa, Colombia, Australia and the United States. Russia is the largest supplier so far, with an annual share of 25 to 30 percent. That is (including transit) about 10 million tons of coal, with a value of about 3.5billion euros. 

https://www.nu.nl/klimaat/6188528/russische-steenkool-niet-nodig-maar-nederland-koopt-nog-schepen-vol.html (article in Dutch)

And that is just the tiny Netherlands.

The article goes on to explain that we could easily do without Russian coal, as the other coal producing countries could scale up production using existing infrastructure. That is because in recent years production had been scaled down due to a decline in global demand.

[Phil1111 1,149]

2 hours ago, airdvr said:

You've stated the very reason we weren't allowed to "win" in Vietnam.

In the absence of US boots right up to the Chinese border. There were many reasons.

In other news, those Canadians are sticking their noses in Ukraine: So many Canadian fighters in Ukraine, they have their own battalion, with another battalion on the way.

That is currently 50 more combatants than Canada currently has deployed in Latvia. According to the story Canadian church groups are fundraising to send combatants to Ukraine.

[ryoder 1,590]

1 hour ago, kallend said:

The UK declared war on Germany 1100 GMT on September 3, 1939, and France a few hours later, followed by Canada, Australia, South Africa, Rhodesia, New Zealand. . . . . . I guess you aren't including them in "the free world".

You are missing my point;

That is how the free world reacted in 1939;

It is not how they are reacting now.

[olofscience 489]

48 minutes ago, Baksteen said:

Military action may be the exact excuse Putin needs to escalate this conflict.

But so may military INaction. Putin could just quietly move on to the next 'nazi militarised' non-NATO country after Ukraine. Finland maybe?

Military buildup around Ukraine started around March 2021.

So this indicates Putin had already decided, or at least seriously considering an invasion a full year ago.

This means that he's probably plotted what he'll do next year.

Edited March 10, 2022 by olofscience

[gowlerk 2,249]

13 hours ago, ryoder said:

It is September 1939 and the free world is tip-toeing around, afraid that if they upset the Nazis, the war might spread beyond Poland.

Hitler did not have 1500 nuclear weapons ready to go at any time with a stockpile of 3500 more. Unfortunately the parallel is not that good.

[metalslug 36]

54 minutes ago, olofscience said:

Military buildup around Ukraine started around March 2021.

So this indicates Putin had already decided, or at least seriously considering an invasion a full year ago.

This means that he's probably plotted what he'll do next year.

With all that planning, things haven't quite gone Putin's way. I expect he would have had to rethink a lot of things in the last two weeks. I doubt he has the resources to go further, not for a while, for all the reasons you mentioned yourself earlier, the cost of the Ukrainian engagement and the bite of sanctions. If Putin does invade Finland (an unlikely but theoretical scenario) ;  NATO have been clear that they won't escalate for the benefit of a non-NATO member, it would be seen as a double-standard if they did escalate for Finland but not for Ukraine. I rather expect that Russia will eventually take Ukraine and stop there for a long time. They will hold it until they gradually go broke (and if sanctions persist to get them there), facing.guerilla-style attacks from whatever is left of the Ukrainian forces for months or even years. I do actually believe that there is no nuke risk if NATO remains passive during this time.

Edited March 10, 2022 by metalslug

[ryoder 1,590]

7 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Hitler did not have 1500 nuclear weapons ready to go at any time with a stockpile of 3500 more. Unfortunately the parallel is not that good.

Of course Putin will threaten nuclear action. He has them so it is just logical to make the threat.