Ukraine

[JerryBaumchen 1,362]

16 hours ago, billvon said:

You know, I didn't think the west's resistance would be so successful.  I really thought this would be over in two weeks.  But now it's going on three weeks, and while Russia is making progress, Ukraine has become a dumpster fire of Russia's failed ambitions and glaring weaknesses.  Russian generals are being killed left and right.  Ukrainians are making off with tanks and armored personnel carriers.  Ukranian drone operators are having a field day againt Russian armor, and it looks like the Russians don't have a clue as to how to stop them.

And closer to home for Putin the shit is hitting the fan.  Russia barely mananged to not default on an international loan payment recently.  That means that Putin has perhaps a month before the next payment comes due, and he is under trememdous pressure to have a success and end this before then.  And that means that when he gets to the barganing table, his position is greatly weakened.  Any deal that lets him claim a victory is going to look better and better to him.  It's looking like Ukraine may be able to retain their autonomy, something that didn't look possible three weeks ago.

And much of that is due to the cooperation of the west to boycott Russian goods.  Sure. it's making gas prices higher and making life miserable for Americans.  But it's working.  And if we can win this "war" - or even just get Ukraine a partial win at the truce table - that 'pain at the pump' will be more than worth it.  A victory of this sort without a single US soldier dying?  Without an open Russia/NATO conflict?  That's huge.  Good for us, and for all the other countries who honored the boycotts, supplied military aid to the Ukraine and did not fall to the temptation of cheap Russian oil.

Hi Bill,

I have to admit that I am surprised at how Ukraine is able to keep the Russian army at bay.

I can only hope that 'Putin's victory' includes something, somehow to rebuild the Ukraine infrastructure that is now almost non-existent.  That is going to take a LOT of money.

Jerry Baumchen

Edited March 21, 2022 by JerryBaumchen

[Phil1111 1,149]

6 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

my mistake tried an edit of prior post.

 

Edited March 21, 2022 by Phil1111

[Phil1111 1,149]

31 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Bill,

I have to admit that I am surprised at how Ukraine is able to keep the Russian army at bay.

I can only hope that 'Putin's victory' includes something, somehow to rebuild the Ukraine infrastructure that is now almost none existent.  That is going to take a LOT of money.

Jerry Baumchen

IMO the Russian conscripts have little motivation to pursue war. Hence the abandoned vehicles, tanks etc. Pilots are the senior officer core and they get paid far more. As such likely have greater motivations.

The generals are leading from the front because Russian military doctrine is entirely top down flow of orders. Junior officers have no latitude to act independently of orders. Not meaning that the generals have to be on the front lines. But they draft the overall plan. Which must be followed. When problems arise they likely want to go to the front to see what the hold up is. To direct individual units.

Western philosophy is to empower lieutenants to act. To take the initiative when maneuver for gain presents itself. The Ukrainian forces have adopted this leadership model. Which when combined with better weapons results in better success.

[brenthutch 444]

On 3/21/2022 at 8:26 AM, Phil1111 said:

About four years ago in these forums I stated that Nord Stream 2 should be cancelled. Due to the risks to the west arising from that dependence. The risks that a very dangerous Putin could morph into. Now its war 

If only there was a world leader who could have warned Europe on the dangers of over dependence on Russian oil and gas.

[olofscience 480]

4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

If only there was a world leader who could have warned Europe on the dangers of over dependence on Russian oil and gas.

FIFY.

Glad to know you're now advocating for reducing fossil fuel use.

[riggerrob 643]

My co-worker is of Ukrainian-Canadian descent and has been telling me some of the Ukrainian background to this current war. His father was born in the South-West corner of Ukraine, a few kilometers inland from Odessa. His father survived the Second World War by trading on the black market and immigrated to Canada after the war. He fit in well with the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who had already moved to the Canadian Prairies before and after the First World War. He taught my co-worker the cyrillic alphabet and how to speak Ukrainian. The lad did not learn English until he attended elementary school.

As I said in an earlier post, Soviets were upset that so many Ukrainians resisted communist rule (circa 1029), so they almost welcomed the Holomodor drought and famine of 1932. This drought struck around the same time as the Dust Bowl devastated the America Mid West during the "Dirty Thirties". The Eastern Ukrainian Oblasts (provinces) were the worst hit because they are traditionally the driest part of Ukraine. Soviets seized food from farmers to feed factory workers. Soviets also refused to ship food into the hungriest parts of Georgia and Eastern Ukraine. Thousands of Ukrainians were also forcably deported to make way for Russian-speaking immigrants. This was all part of Stalin's plan to "russify" the most rebellious (from a bolshevik perspective) part of Ukraine.

As an aside, Stalin also accused Crimean Tatars of betraying the Soviet Union, so deported them from Crimea to Siberia in the aftermath of World War 2. Did I mention that Stalin was merely the most blood-thirsty ruler of Moscow rullers... from a long line of ruthless rulers?

The current war is just a continuation of a centuries old process to "russify" Eastern Ukraine. Recent news footage - of Russian speaking - Ukrainians telling Russian soldiers to go home is an indication that even Russian-speaking Ukrainians prefer to live in a Western democracy.

While I may have been tired of hearing NATO propaganda about "evil Russians" by the late 1980s, it turns out that some of that propaganda is still true today.

[ryoder 1,590]

It would appear the morale problems in the Russian military go all the way to the top:

Exclusive: Inside a rare US meeting with a Russian general in Moscow

[headoverheels 333]

As Putin expected, things are happening fast in Ukraine.   The number of Russian deaths has pretty much equaled the Soviet losses in their Afghanistan "special military action."

 

[BIGUN 1,307]

4 hours ago, headoverheels said:

The number of Russian deaths has pretty much equale

 

[wmw999 2,444]

And I just read they’ve relocated (either forcibly or otherwise) over 400,000 Ukrainians, including over 80,000 children, from Ukraine to Russia.

Wendy P. 

[JoeWeber 2,720]

9 hours ago, wmw999 said:

And I just read they’ve relocated (either forcibly or otherwise) over 400,000 Ukrainians, including over 80,000 children, from Ukraine to Russia.

Wendy P. 

Well, we have clarifying news from the Russian General staff: it was all just a feint and we never intended to sack Kyiv or Kharkiv, so there! Also, the battles are going quite nicely with Russian forces now having destroyed "180 out of 148 S-300 and Buk M1 air defense systems”  and “300 out of 117 radars.” Could be time to wrap things up and go get some medals.

 

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by JoeWeber

[ryoder 1,590]

12 hours ago, wmw999 said:

And I just read they’ve relocated (either forcibly or otherwise) over 400,000 Ukrainians, including over 80,000 children, from Ukraine to Russia.

Wendy P. 

Russian population peaked in 1993.

Current birthrate is 1.5. (2.1 needed to maintain population.)

So this is one way to get replacement population.

[Phil1111 1,149]

30 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Russian population peaked in 1993.

Current birthrate is 1.5. (2.1 needed to maintain population.)

So this is one way to get replacement population.

Yeah but this population has a backbone and their heads are on top of their shoulders. Not in the sand, up their a$$, etc.

With hundreds of thousands of young people fleeing Russia because of the war. The covid fatalities, etc. Its likely the high variant.

I wonder what ever happened to those Russian guys that were in SC for a while. I hope they didn't get drafted.

[JoeWeber 2,720]

On 3/23/2022 at 6:09 AM, brenthutch said:

If only there was a world leader who could have warned Europe on the dangers of over dependence on Russian oil and gas.

Have you considered branching out to writing soap operas? You'd be great, for sure.

[JoeWeber 2,720]

2 hours ago, ryoder said:

Russian population peaked in 1993.

Current birthrate is 1.5. (2.1 needed to maintain population.)

So this is one way to get replacement population.

According to the Hindu Times, I'm sure you read it cover to cover and already know, another Russian General got whacked. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/ukraine-claims-another-russian-general-killed/article65259480.ece

[Phil1111 1,149]

33 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

According to the Hindu Times, I'm sure you read it cover to cover and already know, another Russian General got whacked. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/ukraine-claims-another-russian-general-killed/article65259480.ece

Join the Russian army. Where battlefield promotions are guaranteed.

Meanwhile on the Ukrainian front. The health of colonels is not going so well either.

[headoverheels 333]

6 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Well, we have clarifying news from the Russian General staff: it was all just a feint and we never intended to sack Kyiv or Kharkiv, so there! Also, the battles are going quite nicely with Russian forces now having destroyed "180 out of 148 S-300 and Buk M1 air defense systems”  and “300 out of 117 radars.” Could be time to wrap things up and go get some medals.

 

 

Look for Tucker, MTG, et al to be parroting that shortly, if not already.

 

[gowlerk 2,190]

5 minutes ago, headoverheels said:

Look for Tucker, MTG, et al to be parroting that shortly, if not already.

 

Putin only wanted a nibble but his generals insisted on a big bite. Now they are choking.

[riggerrob 643]

17 hours ago, headoverheels said:

Look for Tucker, MTG, et al to be parroting that shortly, if not already.

 

Russia achieved most of their goals in Southern Ukraine during the first day, when they reached the banks of the Dnieper River. Their first goal was to re-open the North Crimean Canal that supplies water to Crimea.

Their second goal was to capture a land bridge connecting Russia to Crimea. They almost completed that goal except for stubborn Ukrainians defending Mariupol. Russia could hav simply by-passed Mariupol and built a railroads to re-route North of Mariupol.

Russia's third goal was to install a puppet government favorable to Russia. That was what motivated their invasion of the Northern and North-Eastern cities of Kharkiv and Keeve. That goal has failed because of stubborn Ukrainians who do not want to live under Russian rule.

The latest announcement is Russian public attempt to mask their failures in Northern Ukraine while claiming glory for Russian successes in South-Eastern Ukraine.

Did I ever tell you how much I hate the MASKovka published by Russian politicians, Russian proagandists, Canadian politicians, Canadian propagandists, Canadian lawyers, etc.???????

[jakee 1,489]

18 hours ago, gowlerk said:

Putin only wanted a nibble but his generals insisted on a big bite. Now they are choking.

Putin doesn’t answer to his generals anymore than he answers to his oligarchs. No one in Russian tells Putin what to do or how to do it. After 20 years of relentless power consolidation, Putin is Russia.

[gowlerk 2,190]

1 hour ago, jakee said:

After 20 years of relentless power consolidation, Putin is Russia.

Yup. Until one day he isn't. Likely suddenly with no warning because that's the only way.

[JoeWeber 2,720]

1 hour ago, gowlerk said:

Yup. Until one day he isn't. Likely suddenly with no warning because that's the only way.

Agreed, but I think it was a misstep for Biden to effectively call for regime change today. Then again he'd already called him a war criminal and a butcher so there's that. 

[Phil1111 1,149]

2 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Agreed, but I think it was a misstep for Biden to effectively call for regime change today. Then again he'd already called him a war criminal and a butcher so there's that. 

Perhaps. But in the age of unlimited Russian lies and barbarity. Its refreshing to hear some straight talking.

I'd have called for a Russian patriot to do whats necessary.

[JoeWeber 2,720]

45 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Perhaps. But in the age of unlimited Russian lies and barbarity. Its refreshing to hear some straight talking.

I'd have called for a Russian patriot to do whats necessary.

Same thing only different. I am not super disappointed by the remark but it wasn't necessary. Biden has done an amazing job of coalescing NATO after Trumps blunders. There was no need to cause our European partners to wonder about our Presidents diplomatic capacities.

[Phil1111 1,149]

8 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Same thing only different. I am not super disappointed by the remark but it wasn't necessary. Biden has done an amazing job of coalescing NATO after Trumps blunders. There was no need to cause our European partners to wonder about our Presidents diplomatic capacities.

Agree. There is a bit of a split/difference between the countries closest to Russia. From NATO countries in Europe but farther away. The Baltic NATO countries and Poland have been the most upfront with Putin. All calling for the most action the most response.

Germany of course has done a complete back-flip on Russia. Then France, the UK and others a little more reserved in response.

IMO the unified, severe nature of sanctions was entirely Biden's doing. Certainly, other NATO countries went along. Other NATO countries made more aggressive contributions. But US diplomats led the way.