Ukraine

[ryoder 1,590]

  On 2/26/2022 at 2:56 PM, JoeWeber said:

They might even consider kicking the Russians off of the SWIFT network as a reminder that without global payments there is limited global trade.

Might be happening soon:

 

[Phil1111 1,149]

  On 2/26/2022 at 2:56 PM, JoeWeber said:

The nukes may or may not have deterred Putin. I suspect strongly that a few Nato divisions, including Americans, sprinkled along the borders would have kept his aspirations checked.

I disagree. Putin's bellicose statements to his people and his blatant "testing" of his nuclear missile options in the last two weeks. Clearly showed he was laying his cards on the table.

  On 2/26/2022 at 2:56 PM, JoeWeber said:

.... The Europeans need to show some strength now, not only military strength but strength of will. Every European Parliament should this moment be discussing significant defense budget increases...

Once again I disagree. They are spending enough already. Furthermore I hope the US doesn't use this war as an excuse to spend more. They need to move at maximum speed for energy independence from Russia. Complete independence. Cut Russia off at the economic knees independence. Furthermore politicians need to prepare its populations for the economic costs associated with this.

Instead park NATO divisions, A/C and missile systems closer to Russia in other NATO countries.

  On 2/26/2022 at 2:56 PM, JoeWeber said:

 Nord Stream 2 should be disabled at least semi-permanently. Any and everything they can do to telegraph they are serious about their own defense and energy independence, including nuclear, should be under discussion. They might even consider kicking the Russians off of the SWIFT network as a reminder that without global payments there is limited global trade...

Agree and go after every oligarch associated with Putin and seize ill gotten assets to pay Ukrainian reparations.

  On 2/26/2022 at 2:56 PM, JoeWeber said:

...Not only might it deter Russia from future aggression it might also give the Chinese reason to wait a few more decades for their turn.

But they won't, is my guess. It's like with the Swiss. They are rich. But they don't invest even in their own Air Force. Why? Well, they reason that by the time they'd need to use it all of their allies would be overrun so whats the point?

I'm more optimistic. France seized a Russian flagged ship overnight associated with the sanctions. Russia is a run down, corrupt system and its armed forces are weak. Look what happened when it tried to send its aircraft carrier to the Med last year. Putin likely started this war to distract from the weak economic growth over the last decade. Its declining birth rate. Its ageing population.

Western unity is the answer to Putin. it will ultimately also free Russia from its dictatorship.

[brenthutch 444]

  On 2/26/2022 at 3:16 PM, Phil1111 said:

Cut Russia off at the economic knees independence. Furthermore politicians need to prepare its populations for the economic costs associated with this.

 

This is a visual representation of what sanctions on the Russian energy sector would look like.  The EU is sitting on the branch (Russian oil and gas) 

Edited February 26, 2022 by brenthutch

[JoeWeber 2,820]

  On 2/26/2022 at 3:16 PM, Phil1111 said:

I disagree. Putin's bellicose statements to his people and his blatant "testing" of his nuclear missile options in the last two weeks. Clearly showed he was laying his cards on the table.

Once again I disagree. They are spending enough already. Furthermore I hope the US doesn't use this war as an excuse to spend more. They need to move at maximum speed for energy independence from Russia. Complete independence. Cut Russia off at the economic knees independence. Furthermore politicians need to prepare its populations for the economic costs associated with this.

Instead park NATO divisions, A/C and missile systems closer to Russia in other NATO countries.

Agree and go after every oligarch associated with Putin and seize ill gotten assets to pay Ukrainian reparations.

I'm more optimistic. France seized a Russian flagged ship overnight associated with the sanctions. Russia is a run down, corrupt system and its armed forces are weak. Look what happened when it tried to send its aircraft carrier to the Med last year. Putin likely started this war to distract from the weak economic growth over the last decade. Its declining birth rate. Its ageing population.

Western unity is the answer to Putin. it will ultimately also free Russia from its dictatorship.

They're each supposed to be spending 2% GDP on Defense and few have ever achieved it. We always exceed it at 3%+ to 4%+. The whole of the EU spent $225Billion in 2020. Maybe that should be enough but if it is they need new procurers. 

[Phil1111 1,149]

  On 2/26/2022 at 3:28 PM, JoeWeber said:

They're each supposed to be spending 2% GDP on Defense and few have ever achieved it. We always exceed it at 3%+ to 4%+. The whole of the EU spent $225Billion in 2020. Maybe that should be enough but if it is they need new procurers. 

Yes they all agreed to 2% minimum and only the Baltic NATO members have really exceeded that. But keep in mind that NATO already dwarfs Russian spending and military power.

[JoeWeber 2,820]

  On 2/26/2022 at 3:47 PM, Phil1111 said:

Yes they all agreed to 2% minimum and only the Baltic NATO members have really exceeded that. But keep in mind that NATO already dwarfs Russian spending and military power.

Not by enough, apparently. They're also short on pragmatism. This will go over like a turd in the punch bowl but some of us, including me, need to be ready to concede to some of Brent's arguments. None of those regarding whether climate change is either happening or salubrious, on those he's dead nuts wrong. But we ought not be as anxious as we are to kill the goose that lay's the oily egg. When the facts change........

[riggerrob 643]

  On 2/25/2022 at 12:19 PM, brenthutch said:

The cards have been dealt at this stage but if I had to go back to the beginning of his administration, I would have not sabotaged our fossil fuel industry and listened to the commanders on the ground in Afghanistan.  Tight oil and gas supply has strengthened Putin’s hand and the debacle in Afghanistan was Biden’s Bay Of Pigs. Which showed weakness and incompetence.  (Along with just about everything this administration has done).  Make your enemies strong + demonstrate your own weaknesses and incompetence = trouble 

Dear Brenthutch,

You are wandering off topic. Biden inherited a mess of an unwinnable war in Afghanistan, so he completed Trump's plan to withdraw all American troops from that Graveyard of Empires. Please do yourself a favor and review history to determine how many foreign empires have been able to conquer Afghanistan????????????????????

[riggerrob 643]

  On 2/24/2022 at 11:18 PM, JoeWeber said:

Winds are light and variable to southerly the next few days at Kiev, then back to Nor'Westerly, then back to Sou'Easterly next Thursday for a bit. Might be a good day for the Ukrainians to blow the Chernobyl sarcophagus if they're running out of options.

On a more cheerful note: that sounds like good skydiving weather1 How are Ukrainian skydivers reacting to the latest foolishness?

Lets' hear from Ukrainian skydivers.

[riggerrob 643]

  On 2/26/2022 at 3:16 PM, Phil1111 said:

... Putin likely started this war to distract from the weak economic growth over the last decade. Its declining birth rate. Its ageing population. ....

Good point!

Russia's biggest problems and alcoholism, abortion and ageing, all reducing Russian birthrates below replacement rates.

A Russian boy born during 1920 had only a 20 percent chance of surviving World War 2. All those casualties limited Russian birthrates during a series of waves. Poutine now fears that he will not have enough young soldiers (cough! cough! cannon-fodder) to resist the next invasion.

Couple this with long-standing Russian fears of different-colored and different-religioned invaders from: Austria, France, Germany, Lithuanian, Mongolia, Poland, Sweden, Tatarstan, Turkey, etc. Remember that Moscow was first separated from Keeve by a Muslim invasion that forced the principality of Moscow to pay tribute to the Khanate. Since Russians fear outsiders, immigration rates are tiny and Russian street gangs often beat minorities. The end result is that Russian population is shrinking.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

  On 2/26/2022 at 3:04 PM, JoeWeber said:

I'll make it easier for you: the world is full of paper tigers who are happy to advocate military response but are utterly clueless about who, what, where, why or how it can be accomplished or have any certainty that it wouldn't cause more harm than help. It sure sounds bold, though.

I’ll be flying to Holland to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the 18th squadron of the NEI. My grandfather’s participation permanently altered the course of my family, effects felt to this day. I have family and friends either on active duty or on reserve after active duty in the Canadian armed forces. 
 

Don’t think there is much use discussing the follies of war with a guy sipping Pinot Noir on the deck of his sailing yacht in the carribean though. 
 

You and Winsor are very much alike, believing you are the only ones with experiences that matter. 

[JoeWeber 2,820]

  On 2/26/2022 at 7:13 PM, SkyDekker said:

I’ll be flying to Holland to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the 18th squadron of the NEI. My grandfather’s participation permanently altered the course of my family, effects felt to this day. I have family and friends either on active duty or on reserve after active duty in the Canadian armed forces. 
 

Don’t think there is much use discussing the follies of war with a guy sipping Pinot Noir on the deck of his sailing yacht in the carribean though. 
 

You and Winsor are very much alike, believing you are the only ones with experiences that matter. 

Your attacks are getting weaker.

[ryoder 1,590]

  On 2/26/2022 at 7:13 PM, SkyDekker said:

Don’t think there is much use discussing the follies of war with a guy sipping Pinot Noir on the deck of his sailing yacht in the carribean though. 

How can you be sure he's not a Merlot guy?

[brenthutch 444]

  On 2/26/2022 at 6:38 PM, riggerrob said:

Dear Brenthutch,

You are wandering off topic. Biden inherited a mess of an unwinnable war in Afghanistan, so he completed Trump's plan to withdraw all American troops from that Graveyard of Empires. Please do yourself a favor and review history to determine how many foreign empires have been able to conquer Afghanistan????????????????????

The debacle was not the decision to get out of Afghanistan it was in the execution.

[ryoder 1,590]

Germany to send thousands of weapons to Ukraine in major reversal

Germany will send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles to Ukraine, marking a complete reversal in Berlin's restrictive arms export policy, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced Saturday.

Shoot, a fella' could have a pretty good weekend in Kyiv with all that stuff.

[lippy 918]

  On 2/26/2022 at 7:01 PM, riggerrob said:

 Poutine now fears that he will not have enough young soldiers (cough! cough! cannon-fodder) to resist the next invasion.

Poutine!?!? That’s a Canadian autocorrect if I ever saw one! 

[ryoder 1,590]

An unusual bit of news:

 

[SkyDekker 1,465]

  On 2/26/2022 at 7:33 PM, JoeWeber said:

Your attacks are getting weaker.

You know you have been sheltered too long when you start believing it is all about you. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by SkyDekker

[JoeWeber 2,820]

  On 2/26/2022 at 8:31 PM, ryoder said:

An unusual bit of news:

 

Can you get Growlers? 

[Phil1111 1,149]

  On 2/26/2022 at 8:31 PM, ryoder said:

An unusual bit of news:

 

The whole molotov cocktails story is very, very depressing. As is the idea of handing out Kalashnikov rifles to 50-60 year old men. Its one thing if you know guns and how to hunt. But untrained people taking on Russian troops with a Kalashnikov and a molotov cocktail. Is a bad bad situation.

They don't know to dig foxholes, conduct ambushes, stay out of the open, etc. etc. But you do what you have to when the hand you're dealt is bad all around.

Would Gofundme allow a campaign to "Send a stinger to Putin"? I think 100k will buy one. I heard a news report where the Ukrainians had shot down a troop carrying helicopter full of troops.

[ryoder 1,590]

The Hill: US, allies to kick certain Russian banks out of SWIFT banking system

Seems like after tanking the Moscow Stock Exchange, and now this, the oligarchs might turn on Putin at some point.

Edited February 26, 2022 by ryoder

[ryoder 1,590]

Apparently, Russian armor is re-enacting the Battle of the Bulge:

 

[JoeWeber 2,820]

  On 2/26/2022 at 7:35 PM, ryoder said:

How can you be sure he's not a Merlot guy?

First clue is I'm not Canadian. But yes, I'm a Pinot guy, foremost Burgundy--white and red. I'll leave the Molson reviews to my antagonist.

[JoeWeber 2,820]

  On 2/26/2022 at 8:54 PM, JoeWeber said:

Can you get Growlers? 

BIGUN, TriGirl, Brent, help me out here, please. Is it possible to get significant small arms (assault rifles, anti-tank weapons etc.) supplies into Ukrainian hands in real time? As in the next few days.

[JerryBaumchen 1,431]

  On 2/27/2022 at 1:48 AM, JoeWeber said:

BIGUN, TriGirl, Brent, help me out here, please. Is it possible to get significant small arms (assault rifles, anti-tank weapons etc.) supplies into Ukrainian hands in real time? As in the next few days.

Hi Joe,

Ask this guy, who might have an idea for you:  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz 

Germany to send Ukraine weapons in historic shift on military aid – POLITICO

Jerry Baumchen

 

[ryoder 1,590]

Apparently more Democrats than Republicans at the Romanian border: