Hurricane season

[brenthutch 444]

Now that it is hurricane season, ever tropical storm will be met with cries of CLIMATE CHANGE!  From the science denying alarmists.  Let us take a look at what the experts have to say…

 

“Christopher Landsea is Chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch at the National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center. In May 2022 he informed us there is no upward trend in hurricanes and calmly states “we cannot yet say with confidence whether there is any detectable human influence on past Atlantic hurricane activity, and this is particularly the case for any greenhouse gas-induced changes.””

[Moderator note - the citation is from WattsUpWithThat, a popular denier site, and is from an article describing, in their words, the "Coming Onslaught of Dishonest Climate Fear Mongering!"]

[johnhking1 96]

The climate must be changing, Galveston hasn't had as big as a hurricane as the one on September 8, 1900 that killed around 8000 people.

[Phil1111 1,149]

4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Now that it is hurricane season, ever tropical storm will be met with cries of CLIMATE CHANGE!  From the science denying alarmists.  Let us take a look at what the experts have to say…

 

“Christopher Landsea is Chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch at the National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center. In May 2022 he informed us there is no upward trend in hurricanes and calmly states “we cannot yet say with confidence whether there is any detectable human influence on past Atlantic hurricane activity, and this is particularly the case for any greenhouse gas-induced changes.””
 

Every year you start a thread about this subject and you quote false information. But expecting you to change is like expecting trump to tell the truth.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Phil1111

[brenthutch 444]

10 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

Every year you start a thread about this subject and you quote false information. But expecting you to change is like expecting trump to tell the truth.

From your link:
“There is no strong evidence of century-scale increasing trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes…., there is not strong evidence for an increase since the late 1800s in hurricanes, major hurricanes or the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane intensity.“ 

Thanks for your support! 

#truth

[Phil1111 1,149]

2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

From your link:
“There is no strong evidence of century-scale increasing trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes…., there is not strong evidence for an increase since the late 1800s in hurricanes, major hurricanes or the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane intensity.“ 

Thanks for your support! 

#truth

Its fruit season in Washington you need to continue your destiny in the cherry orchards.

 

[winsor 236]

13 hours ago, johnhking1 said:

The climate must be changing, Galveston hasn't had as big as a hurricane as the one on September 8, 1900 that killed around 8000 people.

I dunno, Ike managed to breach quite handily the seawall that was built to block a storm surge on a par with the1900 hurricane.  The only reason you did not have a much greater death toll was that people had ample warning and got to high ground.

Reducing any model to Single Input-Single Output form tends to limit its validity.  Regardless of the impact of humanity of climate, Climate Change orthodoxy is simply too dumbed - down to merit serious consideration.  Unless, of course, one must pay homage to it to receive grant money.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

[olofscience 480]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

From your link:

As usual, you haven't read the entire article in the link. Good effort making it past the title, though.

Some of their conclusions: (at the bottom of the page, which brent didn't reach as expected)

Quote

The strongest hurricanes in the present climate may be upstaged by even more intense hurricanes over the next century as the earth’s climate is warmed by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although we cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricanes will occur in the future with global warming, the hurricanes that do occur near the end of the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions. This expectation (Figure 15) is based on an anticipated enhancement of energy available to the storms due to higher tropical sea surface temperatures.

 

[Phil1111 1,149]

49 minutes ago, olofscience said:

As usual, you haven't read the entire article in the link. Good effort making it past the title, though.

Some of their conclusions: (at the bottom of the page, which brent didn't reach as expected)

 

"Earlier this week, Farmers Insurance said that it is going to be pulling out of the state of Florida, according to Insurance Journal, in a move that will potentially impact up to 100,000 policies once their current terms are completed. It’s the fourth major insurance company to pull out of Florida in the past year....in the past two and half years, 10 property insurers in Florida have become insolvent.... and in republican Texas...Texas leading the pack at over $7 billion in severe weather damages this year."

I increasing have a hard time gathering sympathy for Texas and Florida given their republican climate policies.

[billvon 2,995]

3 hours ago, olofscience said:

As usual, you haven't read the entire article in the link.

Of course he hasn't - nor has he verified that blatant propaganda that he read.

For example, the star of the article - Christopher Landsea - has said that climate change is making hurricanes stronger.  He merely thinks that the effect is less than other meteorologists think.

[CygnusX-1 43]

3 hours ago, olofscience said:

As usual, you haven't read the entire article in the link. Good effort making it past the title, though.

Some of their conclusions: (at the bottom of the page, which brent didn't reach as expected)

 

Oh, puhleeze. Even your quoted conclusion is full of uncertainty and doubt. Nothing is going to change here, and I quote:

"climate may be upstaged" and "cannot say at present" and "are expected to be" and "This expectation" and finally "an anticipated"

See all just speculation. Nothing is going to change. They even admit it. Let's do nothing until the phrases change to WILL happen or IS happening or better yet, HAS already occurred.

[jakee 1,497]

21 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Now that it is hurricane season, ever tropical storm will be met with cries of CLIMATE CHANGE!  From the science denying alarmists.  

Will it? Isn't every hurricane thread in every hurricane season started by you?

 

I don't actually know if that's true but it certainly feels like it is.

[brenthutch 444]

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)  800 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion 1205 UTC Tue Jul 25 2023
There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time.

*Spanish translations, when available, are courtesy of the NWS San Juan Weather Forecast Office.
 

Eastern North Pacific (East of 140°W)
Tropical Weather Outlook  500 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion 1605 UTC Tue Jul 25 2023
There are no tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific at this time.

 

Central North Pacific (140°W to 180°)
Tropical Weather Outlook  200 AM HST Tue Jul 25 2023
There are no tropical cyclones in the Central North Pacific at this time.

 

Its cute how you guys don’t know the difference between predictions and observations.

From NPR:

“In 2006, it was predicted that their frequency and intensity would increase owing to the warming of oceans. Hurricane frequency has dropped a bit, and their intensities haven't changed much.”

Edited July 25, 2023 by brenthutch

[jakee 1,497]

21 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Now that it is hurricane season, ever tropical storm will be met with cries of CLIMATE CHANGE!  From the science denying alarmists.

Ooooh I see what happened. You meant to say every time there happen to be no tropical storms will be met with cries of NO CLIMATE CHANGE by the science deniers.

 

(What is the probability that there will be a tropical storm happening at any given time, by the way?)

Edited July 25, 2023 by jakee

[olofscience 480]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Its cute how you guys don’t know the difference between predictions and observations.

Go on, show where this one occurred.

You're pretty much known here not knowing the difference between a model and observations.

[brenthutch 444]

It was meant to be illustrative of the difference between observation and prediction. I 

[brenthutch 444]

1 minute ago, olofscience said:

Go on, show where this one occurred.

 

Today’s conditions according to the National Hurricane Center 

[olofscience 480]

2 hours ago, CygnusX-1 said:

Oh, puhleeze. Even your quoted conclusion is full of uncertainty and doubt. Nothing is going to change here, and I quote:

"climate may be upstaged" and "cannot say at present" and "are expected to be" and "This expectation" and finally "an anticipated"

See all just speculation. Nothing is going to change. They even admit it. Let's do nothing until the phrases change to WILL happen or IS happening or better yet, HAS already occurred.

Anything that the scientific community has less than 99% certainty about, brent will latch on because he has 100% certainty about things, which makes him BETTER than anyone who has uncertainty.

 

Just ignore the fact that he can't process any function with more than 1 variable...

[olofscience 480]

3 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Today’s conditions according to the National Hurricane Center 

Go on...you haven't answered the question yet.

Edited July 25, 2023 by olofscience

[billvon 2,995]

2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Its cute how you guys don’t know the difference between predictions and observations.

Prediction - a warming climate will make hurricanes stronger.

Observation - the climate has warmed, and hurricanes have become stronger.

Let's see if YOU understand the difference.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1920849117

[brenthutch 444]

35 minutes ago, billvon said:

Prediction - a warming climate will make hurricanes stronger.

Observation - the climate has warmed, and hurricanes have become stronger.

Let's see if YOU understand the difference.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1920849117

If you molest the data hard enough you can get it to show anything.

[billvon 2,995]

3 hours ago, brenthutch said:

If you molest the data hard enough you can get it to show anything.

So you don't understand the difference between predictions and observations (i.e. data.)

C'est la vie.

[Phil1111 1,149]

3 hours ago, brenthutch said:

If you molest the data hard enough you can get it to show anything.

Ah! The very basis for which all FOX programming is created.

6 minutes ago, billvon said:

So you don't understand the difference between predictions and observations (i.e. data.)

C'est la vie.

FB, Twitter, the dark web, American Enterprise Institute, Truth Social, etc all have the algorithms working in the same direction. So to quote one of the most infamous writers of the extreme right “Think of the press as a great keyboard
on which the government can play.”  In this case its republicans and science deniers can play.

[billvon 2,995]

3 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

To quote one of the most infamous writers of the extreme right “Think of the press as a great keyboard on which the government can play.”  In this case its republicans and science deniers can play.

This quote sums up the republican reality-distortion process pretty well.  It came from an interview with a GWB staffer:

The aide said that guys like me were 'in what we call the reality-based community,' which he defined as people who 'believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.'  . . . 'That's not the way the world really works anymore,' he continued. 'We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors...and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do'.

Of course Kellyanne Conway put it far more succintly when explaining some lies Sean Spicer had told:

"Sean Spicer gave alternative facts to that . . . "

 

[Phil1111 1,149]

36 minutes ago, billvon said:

This quote sums up the republican reality-distortion process pretty well.  It came from an interview with a GWB staffer:...

 

Outstanding modern example of the same quote.

[grimmie 186]

4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

If you molest the data hard enough you can get it to show anything.

Irony meter broken.