The End of Manual Labor?

[JerryBaumchen 1,364]

Hi folks,

Actually, the end of manual labor has been the goal for a long time.  However, it does look like the efforts are beginning to really make progress:  

Corvallis robotics company says new Salem factory could employ up to 500 people - OPB

University of Washington engineers and computer scientists give assembly line robots a helping hand - OPB

The unemployment lines are going to be longer.

I once posted on here that every day, all over the world, people were working on automating all forms of labor.  I see no change in that assertion.

Will we need a guaranteed minimum annual income?  Something to consider.

Jerry Baumchen

 

[brenthutch 444]

6 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

Actually, the end of manual labor has been the goal for a long time.  However, it does look like the efforts are beginning to really make progress:  

Corvallis robotics company says new Salem factory could employ up to 500 people - OPB

University of Washington engineers and computer scientists give assembly line robots a helping hand - OPB

The unemployment lines are going to be longer.

I once posted on here that every day, all over the world, people were working on automating all forms of labor.  I see no change in that assertion.

Will we need a guaranteed minimum annual income?  Something to consider.

Jerry Baumchen

 

They said the same thing about the power loom. It was soft thinking then, it is soft thinking now.

[Stumpy 284]

Interesting article on this one
https://a16z.com/ai-will-save-the-world/

I'm a little less optimistic than andreesen, but more optimistic than most. 
(Also, most of the work I am doing at the moment is AI related.)

[JerryBaumchen 1,364]

25 minutes ago, Stumpy said:

Interesting article on this one
https://a16z.com/ai-will-save-the-world/

I'm a little less optimistic than andreesen, but more optimistic than most. 
(Also, most of the work I am doing at the moment is AI related.)

Hi Stumpy,

From your link:  Smarter people have better outcomes in almost every domain of activity: academic achievement, job performance, occupational status, income, creativity, physical health, longevity, learning new skills, managing complex tasks, leadership, entrepreneurial success, conflict resolution, reading comprehension, financial decision making, understanding others’ perspectives, creative arts, parenting outcomes, and life satisfaction.

I do not disagree with this premise.  However, it does not address the gist of my post; that jobs are being eliminated every day.

Not everyone benefits from the advances of high tech.  You can argue that 'everyone'  benefits somewhat due to the advances; but, if your job goes away, is that truly a benefit?

For every manual labor job eliminated, will there be a job in the high tech world?  On a 1 for 1 basis, I do not think so.

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  In the early 90's, I was at a production plant in  Brazil watching people assemble insulators.  There were about 9 to 11 people sitting at a large Lazy Susan installing parts.  I mentioned to the Production Mgr that I could develop some machinery to do it automatically & for less money.  He said, 'At these prices you can't.' 

Where was the last piece of clothing that you bought manufactured?

 

 

Edited September 24, 2023 by JerryBaumchen

[Phil1111 1,149]

4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

They said the same thing about the power loom. It was soft thinking then, it is soft thinking now.

"Soft thinking" Is that the best that you can do?

 

2 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

...  However, it does not address the gist of my post; that jobs are being eliminated every day.

Not everyone benefits from the advances of high tech.  You can argue that 'everyone'  benefits somewhat due to the advances; but, if your job goes away, is that truly a benefit?

For every manual labor job eliminated, will there be a job in the high tech world?  On a 1 for 1 basis, I do not think so....

Rising productivity generally leads to shorter work weeks and a greater standard of living.

Addressing income inequality is the essence of your concerns. Because most jobs that are eliminated by technology result in the individual finding employment a a lessor salary in a less technical job. For that the US is falling behind as the rich are getting far richer. Manual labor is not going to end for a long long time. Fruit still needs to be picked. Service jobs are expanding although at very poor salaries.

Economists Pin More Blame on Tech for Rising Inequality "Recent research underlines the central role that automation has played in widening disparities."

[SethInMI 174]

2 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

He said, 'At these prices you can't.' 

That has been the overwhelming story of "factory work" in the USA and in other developed countries in recent decades. Not job elimination through automation, but through movement to lower cost countries, like Brazil as you mention, but also China, Vietnam and plenty of others.

Will these new robotics affect that trend, or start a new one? I doubt it will be much noticed in this country, as a lot of factory jobs remaining are difficult to automate, the maintaining and re-configuring of existing robots, etc. Sure automation may come for those too, but it will be a slow process that society can absorb.  As Brent points out, we as a society have seen massive reductions in factory work over the last centuries and largely it has been a good thing.

When the robots come for the jobs in Bangladesh, that will be a milestone. Ethier robots have managed to get really cheap, or the Bangladesh economy has finally "made it".

 

[wmw999 2,452]

Im in Brazil right now; the thing that this cheap labor has given for now is that there is plenty of industry; we were in a city that is one of the tile centers in Brazil, as well as having a thriving medical center with three hospitals, a manufacturer of electric towers and the like that sells worldwide, as well as the ancillary support industries for those. Another area we were in yesterday is a national producer of shoes, leather goods, knitwear, chocolate, and souvenir knives (yes, there’s a tourist center for those last two, but it also means they sell lots of the others).

The US doesn’t really have much of that any more; we’re more and more a consumer society. Which ignores the existence and needs of many who aren’t of above average intelligence and/or education (I.e. half the population), who are more and more being relegated to positions of asking for things like food stamps and other assistance, and who have trouble finding decent places to live they can afford

Wendy P. 

[billvon 2,995]

3 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

For every manual labor job eliminated, will there be a job in the high tech world?  On a 1 for 1 basis, I do not think so.

Agreed.

Most of the jobs eliminated will be the sort of mindless jobs that are easy to automate - cold callers, garbage truck loaders, box makers etc.  Unfortunately those jobs are the sort that the people without any other skills could do, and there are no "higher level" jobs they can get.

So yes, it's a problem.

 

[JerryBaumchen 1,364]

54 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

Im in Brazil right now; the thing that this cheap labor has given for now is that there is plenty of industry; we were in a city that is one of the tile centers in Brazil, as well as having a thriving medical center with three hospitals, a manufacturer of electric towers and the like that sells worldwide, as well as the ancillary support industries for those. Another area we were in yesterday is a national producer of shoes, leather goods, knitwear, chocolate, and souvenir knives (yes, there’s a tourist center for those last two, but it also means they sell lots of the others).

   ; we’re more and more a consumer society. Which ignores the existence and needs of many who aren’t of above average intelligence and/or education (I.e. half the population), who are more and more being relegated to positions of asking for things like food stamps and other assistance, and who have trouble finding decent places to live they can afford

Wendy P. 

Hi Wendy,

Re:  a manufacturer of electric towers and the like that sells worldwide

Was it these guys:  SAE Towers - FROM DESIGN TO EXECUTION, MUCH MORE THAN ENERGY, TRANSMITTING LIFE.

I've been to their facilities numerous times; both for production & for tower testing.  Fun times.

Re:  The US doesn’t really have much of that any more

Yup.  I've worked with Bethlehem Steel, US Steel/American Bridge, Flint Steel, Falcon Steel - all gone except Falcon Steel, who are now owned [ I think ] by an overseas company:    Steel Lattice Towers | MICA Steelworks

All of those companies had lots of good paying jobs for the working class.  The vast majority of those jobs are now gone.  Some of it was because they did not institute more automated production methods.  Other companies overseas [ mostly Japan in the late 70's - early 80's ] did automate & took those jobs for their people.

Re:  Which ignores the existence and needs of many who aren’t of above average intelligence and/or education (I.e. half the population), who are more and more being relegated to positions of asking for things like food stamps and other assistance, and who have trouble finding decent places to live they can afford

This why I mentioned the minimum annual income.

Jerry Baumchen

[JerryBaumchen 1,364]

3 minutes ago, billvon said:

Agreed.

Most of the jobs eliminated will be the sort of mindless jobs that are easy to automate - cold callers, garbage truck loaders, box makers etc.  Unfortunately those jobs are the sort that the people without any other skills could do, and there are no "higher level" jobs they can get.

So yes, it's a problem.

 

Hi Bill,

That is the gist of my original post.  I won't be around as the problem becomes one that cannot be avoided; but, I think my children will.  If not them, then my grandchildren.

Putting one's head in the sand does not solve any problem.

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  While I am glad I did not have one of those mindless jobs, they did provide a good wage & brought us the success of the middle class.

[brenthutch 444]

One of my rental properties has the HVAC poop the bed at the end of July, I couldn’t get a replacement until next week. We want to get a bathroom remodel, contractor can’t get to us until sometime next year. My daughter’s bathtub has a slow drain I can’t get a plumber for two more weeks. Why? They all have more jobs than they can handle. AI can’t change a tire on your Tesla. 

[JoeWeber 2,721]

24 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Putting one's head in the sand does not solve any problem.

Not having children who then have grandchildren might.

[billvon 2,995]

5 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

 They all have more jobs than they can handle. 

You may be underestimating the sort of skill that (say) a finish carpenter or plumber requires.

[JoeWeber 2,721]

34 minutes ago, billvon said:

Agreed.

Most of the jobs eliminated will be the sort of mindless jobs that are easy to automate - cold callers, garbage truck loaders, box makers etc.  Unfortunately those jobs are the sort that the people without any other skills could do, and there are no "higher level" jobs they can get.

So yes, it's a problem.

 

First, so now we don't have greenies, we have brownies? No matter, excluding the possibility that clothes and food won't appear free of charge Star Trek style by pressing a button on a transconfabulator, what percentage of a nations GDP might you guess is acceptable to provide sustenance and housing for the incapable?

[billvon 2,995]

9 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

 what percentage of a nations GDP might you guess is acceptable to provide sustenance and housing for the incapable?

That's the question, isn't it?

If technology provides so much more output per working person, at the cost of increased unemployment, then some of that output goes towards living expenses for the people displaced by that technology (in a fair world at least.)  How much is that?  That will be the $64,000 question.

The capitalist answer (i.e. the capable make more $$$ and everyone else dies) is going to become increasingly unpalatable for the unemployed, so avoiding that could avoid a lot of bloodshed.

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

28 minutes ago, billvon said:

...The capitalist answer (i.e. the capable make more $$$ and everyone else dies) is going to become increasingly unpalatable for the unemployed, so avoiding that could avoid a lot of bloodshed.

Let them eat cake?

I've seen it claimed that the income inequality in the US right now is very similar to that of France, right before the revolution.

I wouldn't mind seeing the Koch bros, the Waltons, Harlan Crow and a lot of others end up facing the guillotine.

[Phil1111 1,149]

48 minutes ago, billvon said:

...The capitalist answer (i.e. the capable make more $$$ and everyone else dies) is going to become increasingly unpalatable for the unemployed, so avoiding that could avoid a lot of bloodshed.

Or to avoid bloodshed just sell them the republican message that you're poor because you're just not working hard enough. Or the Jebus answer All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty

[JoeWeber 2,721]

56 minutes ago, billvon said:

That's the question, isn't it?

If technology provides so much more output per working person, at the cost of increased unemployment, then some of that output goes towards living expenses for the people displaced by that technology (in a fair world at least.)  How much is that?  That will be the $64,000 question.

The capitalist answer (i.e. the capable make more $$$ and everyone else dies) is going to become increasingly unpalatable for the unemployed, so avoiding that could avoid a lot of bloodshed.

Might be the only solution is an Alien Visitation (assuming they also have free food recombobulators) or, probably better, a big ass meteor. If we ever find one on a Slim Pickens trajectory and big enough to squash us we'll deserve the outcome if we don't name it Jesus. 

[JerryBaumchen 1,364]

1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

Not having children who then have grandchildren might.

Hi Joe,

IMO parenthood & grandparenthood brings a joy that no other human activity can surpass.

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  As to what I think you are alluding to:  Yes, the days of 8 - 10 offspring needs to be behind us.  My mom & dad were both one of eight.  I have two children & each of my children have one each.

[JerryBaumchen 1,364]

11 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Might be the only solution is an Alien Visitation (assuming they also have free food recombobulators) or, probably better, a big ass meteor. If we ever find one on a Slim Pickens trajectory and big enough to squash us we'll deserve the outcome if we don't name it Jesus. 

Hi Joe,

Wasn't Slim riding that baby into Moscow?

Jerry Baumchen

 

[JoeWeber 2,721]

2 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Joe,

IMO parenthood & grandparenthood brings a joy that no other human activity can surpass.

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  As to what I think you are alluding to:  Yes, the days of 8 - 10 offspring needs to be behind us.  My mom & dad were both one of eight.  I have two children & each of my children have one each.

Indeed. We too often have abhorred, with our traditional dissonance, the fecundity of those we would welcome into our nation at a time when we need low level workers. And that group of us includes liberal cantaloupe eaters. But then here we are, encouraging our own kids to reproduce by offering them financial support while wondering where their kids might work in a future economy. Certainly, we have no worries because our kids will be the smart kids, I guess.

[normiss 801]

6 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Stumpy,

From your link:  Smarter people have better outcomes in almost every domain of activity: academic achievement, job performance, occupational status, income, creativity, physical health, longevity, learning new skills, managing complex tasks, leadership, entrepreneurial success, conflict resolution, reading comprehension, financial decision making, understanding others’ perspectives, creative arts, parenting outcomes, and life satisfaction.

I do not disagree with this premise.  However, it does not address the gist of my post; that jobs are being eliminated every day.

Not everyone benefits from the advances of high tech.  You can argue that 'everyone'  benefits somewhat due to the advances; but, if your job goes away, is that truly a benefit?

For every manual labor job eliminated, will there be a job in the high tech world?  On a 1 for 1 basis, I do not think so.

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  In the early 90's, I was at a production plant in  Brazil watching people assemble insulators.  There were about 9 to 11 people sitting at a large Lazy Susan installing parts.  I mentioned to the Production Mgr that I could develop some machinery to do it automatically & for less money.  He said, 'At these prices you can't.' 

Where was the last piece of clothing that you bought manufactured?

 

 

I've been in IT since the early 80's.

The jobs I've had have "gone away" 3 times.

Adapt to the changes and learn new skills. Skills that pay significantly more.

[olofscience 480]

5 hours ago, Slim King said:

Luckily there will always be singers, dancers, and entertainers. Artists of every kind will never go away.

Sure, but only as a side hobby after their 9-5.

 

They might not be able to make much money because of AI: https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/1/23703087/ai-drake-the-weeknd-music-copyright-legal-battle-right-of-publicity

 

Isn't unrestricted capitalism great? /s

Edited September 25, 2023 by olofscience

[johnhking1 96]

11 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Joe,

IMO parenthood & grandparenthood brings a joy that no other human activity can surpass.

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  As to what I think you are alluding to:  Yes, the days of 8 - 10 offspring needs to be behind us.  My mom & dad were both one of eight.  I have two children & each of my children have one each.

Except for the Amish, my neighbor has 12 kids.

[brenthutch 444]

13 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Bill,

That is the gist of my original post.  I won't be around as the problem becomes one that cannot be avoided; but, I think my children will.  If not them, then my grandchildren.

Putting one's head in the sand does not solve any problem.

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  While I am glad I did not have one of those mindless jobs, they did provide a good wage & brought us the success of the middle class.

We are going to need to increase our reliance on automation as many industrial regions are facing an aging workforce with birth rates well below replacement levels. China, Japan, Russia, much of the EU and yes even the United States are all demographically declining or flat-lining. Not only is automation good for our future, it’s critical.