Polls or betting odds?

[nigel99 471]

I got curious and looked up the betting odds on Trump winning the election in 2024 and they lean towards Trump winning.

I think we should start a dropzone betting pool. 

I'm willing to commit and say that I believe Trump is going to win 2024.

To be clear, I don't think he should, he's a terrible person. But I do think his cult like following will carry him across the line. 

[lippy 918]

2 hours ago, nigel99 said:

I got curious and looked up the betting odds on Trump winning the election in 2024 and they lean towards Trump winning.

I think we should start a dropzone betting pool. 

I'm willing to commit and say that I believe Trump is going to win 2024.

To be clear, I don't think he should, he's a terrible person. But I do think his cult like following will carry him across the line. 

I don't fault your logic in forming that opinion, but 10 months is a long time, especially for our goldfish-sized attention spans.  

I've got no doubt that a Trump victory is dishearteningly conceivable, but it's far from a done deal.  

IMO it's simply too early to tell.

[nigel99 471]

27 minutes ago, lippy said:

I don't fault your logic in forming that opinion, but 10 months is a long time, especially for our goldfish-sized attention spans.  

I've got no doubt that a Trump victory is dishearteningly conceivable, but it's far from a done deal.  

IMO it's simply too early to tell.

Yes it's a long time. But then again I am 12 days away from winning a bet that he wouldn't be jailed - mind you there is still a chance he spends a night in lockup due to a gag order violation. Wouldn't that be a great Christmas present having Trump in  jail for Christmas or New Year?

[gowlerk 2,190]

3 hours ago, nigel99 said:

To be clear, I don't think he should, he's a terrible person. But I do think his cult like following will carry him across the line. 

It's hard to see how. They weren't enough last time and he or they haven't aged well. I know Biden is also unpopular but last time around the anti-Trump vote won, and it will probably be even larger this time. Of course third party candidates could affect the outcome in unpredictable ways.

[ryoder 1,590]

Popular vote:

2016 ===========
Clinton   65,853,625
Trump    62,985,106
--------------------
difference 2,868,519

2020 ===========
Biden     81,283,501
Trump    74,223,975
--------------------
difference 7,059,526

 

It is hard to see how the Trump could get additional votes after Jan 6.

ETA: And in 2020 Trump was the incumbent, which is normally an advantage.

Edited December 19, 2023 by ryoder

[jakee 1,489]

8 hours ago, nigel99 said:

I think we should start a dropzone betting pool. 

I'm willing to commit and say that I believe Trump is going to win 2024.

I think he solidly loses.

[nigel99 471]

5 hours ago, ryoder said:

Popular vote:

2016 ===========
Clinton   65,853,625
Trump    62,985,106
--------------------
difference 2,868,519

2020 ===========
Biden     81,283,501
Trump    74,223,975
--------------------
difference 7,059,526

 

It is hard to see how the Trump could get additional votes after Jan 6.

ETA: And in 2020 Trump was the incumbent, which is normally an advantage.

I agree with your logic to some extent. However, since 2020 we have seen quite a big rise in extremism globally. People are strange and if you can radicalise them on one hand and instil fear in the others you can tilt the scales. 

[gowlerk 2,190]

7 hours ago, nigel99 said:

However, since 2020 we have seen quite a big rise in extremism globally. People are strange and if you can radicalise them on one hand and instil fear in the others you can tilt the scales. 

This is why both Trump and the right in general all over the world keep hammering away at the societal fear of the large amount of migration going on out of "shit hole countries" to more prosperous places. It is a winner and it will probably get worse as climate change forces more people to move. 

Edited December 19, 2023 by gowlerk

[JoeWeber 2,720]

13 hours ago, ryoder said:

Popular vote:

2016 ===========
Clinton   65,853,625
Trump    62,985,106
--------------------
difference 2,868,519

2020 ===========
Biden     81,283,501
Trump    74,223,975
--------------------
difference 7,059,526

 

It is hard to see how the Trump could get additional votes after Jan 6.

ETA: And in 2020 Trump was the incumbent, which is normally an advantage.

You'd think so but just wait until Jill Biden brings into the White, I repeat the White, House a Black and Gay tap dancing troop performing Porgy and Bess.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

I am with Nigel99, I also think Trump will win.

[TriGirl 318]

5 hours ago, gowlerk said:

This is why both Trump and the right in general all over the world keep hammering away at the societal fear of the large amount of migration going on out of "shit hole countries" to more prosperous places. It is a winner and it will probably get worse as climate change forces more people to move. 

It's also so sad that his party/base can't deduce a well-executed foreign policy that helps impoverished countries to develop and take care of themselves actually REDUCES the demand to migrate.

[billvon 2,991]

2 minutes ago, TriGirl said:

It's also so sad that his party/base can't deduce a well-executed foreign policy that helps impoverished countries to develop and take care of themselves actually REDUCES the demand to migrate.

That would be explained as "sending your tax money to MS-13" and immediately abandoned in favor of a better wall.

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

13 hours ago, TriGirl said:

It's also so sad that his party/base can't deduce a well-executed foreign policy that helps impoverished countries to develop and take care of themselves actually REDUCES the demand to migrate.

They aren't looking for actual solutions.

They're looking to scare the crap out of their idiot supporters. You know, the 'uneducated' that Trump loves so much.
They're looking for 'someone' to blame.

They will then paint themselves as the only people who can 'save the country'.

Standard despot tactics.

Just like, you know, Hitler.

[TriGirl 318]

8 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

They aren't looking for actual solutions.

They're looking to scare the crap out of their idiot supporters. You know, the 'uneducated' that Trump loves so much.
They're looking for 'someone' to blame.

They will then paint themselves as the only people who can 'save the country'.

Standard despot tactics.

Just like, you know, Hitler.

Oh yes, I do know.  Which is why it's so pathetic that actual people (voters) are so easily taken down that path instead of having the critical thinking skills (education) to see a bigger picture. :/

[nigel99 471]

54 minutes ago, TriGirl said:

Oh yes, I do know.  Which is why it's so pathetic that actual people (voters) are so easily taken down that path instead of having the critical thinking skills (education) to see a bigger picture.

Maybe I am turning into a grumpy middle aged man, but critical thinking skills seem to be in the decline.

[theplummeter 15]

I'm wondering if Covid deaths may end up playing a role in some swing states.  The University of Minnesota published the following study:

 

15% higher excess deaths among Republicans

In general, there was a 20.5 percentage-point (95% prediction interval [PI], 15.6 to 25.6 percentage points) increase in weekly death counts in Florida and Ohio between March 2020 and December 2021. Excess death rates were 2.8 percentage points (15%) higher for Republican voters compared with Democratic voters (95% PI, 1.6 to 3.7 percentage points).

 The higher excess death rate observed among Republican voters may continue through subsequent stages of the pandemic.

After May of 2021, roughly 1 month after COVID-19 vaccines became widely available, the gap between Republicans and Democrats further widened, to 7.7 percentage points (95% PI, 6.0 to 9.3 percentage points) in the adjusted analysis, or a 43% difference, the authors said. The difference was seen in Florida, but was most pronounced in Ohio.