Israel and Iran, a more active war?

[Phil1111 1,149]

Iran is behind Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi ship sinkers, etc. All involved in the Iranian objective of destroying Israel. US intelligence suggested that an Iranian attack on Israel is likely today and gold is up $40 an ounce. President Biden has stated that an outright attack on Israel by Iran would solicit an American response.

Opinions?

[gowlerk 2,190]

7 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Iran is behind Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi ship sinkers, etc. All involved in the Iranian objective of destroying Israel. US intelligence suggested that an Iranian attack on Israel is likely today and gold is up $40 an ounce. President Biden has stated that an outright attack on Israel by Iran would solicit an American response.

Opinions?

US intelligence has been pretty good at predicting things like this. They don't make public pronouncements lightly. But knowing the exact day seems unlikely. 

[airdvr 210]

The best motivation for EVs.  I'd love to get off the oil tit and out of ME politics.  Then they can blow each other back to the stone age for all I care.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

38 minutes ago, airdvr said:

The best motivation for EVs.  I'd love to get off the oil tit and out of ME politics.  Then they can blow each other back to the stone age for all I care.

People who lived around Pearl Harbor thought they were untouchable too.

[Phil1111 1,149]

22 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

People who lived around Pearl Harbor thought they were untouchable too.

Agree. Isolationism has never delivered the island of utopia that its adherents promise.

[normiss 798]

Drones and missiles are in the air headed towards Israel.

[Coreece 190]

5 hours ago, normiss said:

Drones and missiles are in the air headed towards Israel.

I don't think much will come of it.  Iran felt the need to display a show of force to save face.  Nothing too serious I hope.

Edited April 14, 2024 by Coreece

[normiss 798]

On 4/13/2024 at 10:37 PM, Coreece said:

I don't think much will come of it.  Iran felt the need to display a show of force to save face.  Nothing too serious I hope.

Unless Israel takes this opportunity to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities.

[JoeWeber 2,720]

22 minutes ago, normiss said:

Unless Israel takes this opportunity to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities.

If they had that capability I'm guessing it already would have happened.

[Stumpy 284]

31 minutes ago, normiss said:

Unless Israel takes this opportunity to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities.

Probably hoping the US will step in and do it for them.

[JoeWeber 2,720]

2 minutes ago, Stumpy said:

Probably hoping the US will step in and do it for them.

If we had that capability I'm guessing it would already have happened. We had enough trouble getting a thumb drive into their main facility, much less a bomb. 

[Stumpy 284]

9 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

If we had that capability I'm guessing it would already have happened. We had enough trouble getting a thumb drive into their main facility, much less a bomb. 

Nah it be easy. I saw a documentary about it called "Maverick"

 

[jakee 1,489]

1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

If they had that capability I'm guessing it already would have happened.

There are some fairly major events in the last twenty some years that have made the US less eager to spark new middle eastern conflicts.

[gowlerk 2,190]

3 minutes ago, jakee said:

There are some fairly major events in the last twenty some years that have made the US less eager to spark new middle eastern conflicts.

The cradle of civilization and the end of civilization. 

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

On 4/12/2024 at 8:59 AM, gowlerk said:

US intelligence has been pretty good at predicting things like this. They don't make public pronouncements lightly. But knowing the exact day seems unlikely. 

Well, they got it pretty damned close.

US intel also got it right when they predicted Putin would invade Ukraine.

Few other folks agreed, but it turned out the US was right.

The interesting thing is how public this (and the Ukraine invasion warnings) have been.

It would have been pretty simple, and pretty standard procedure, for the US to notify Israel quietly. 

Allow Israel to get advance warning, to be ready and waiting, able to fend off the attack (which they did pretty well).

Instead, the US chose to 'go public' with the warning. 

Telling the whole world that we had advance knowledge of what the Iranians (and the Russians back in 2022) were going to do.

Almost as if there's a message in that.

"Dear Bad Guys,

We know what you are going to do.
We know how you are going to do it.
We know when you are going to do it.

Love,
USA."

[gowlerk 2,190]

3 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

"Dear Bad Guys,

We know what you are going to do.
We know how you are going to do it.
We know when you are going to do it.

Love,
USA."

The NSA is both reassuring and frightening. 

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

4 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

The NSA is both reassuring and frightening. 

Yup. Like so many other powerful things.

Used for my benefit, it's awesome.

Used against me, awesomely frightening.

[jakee 1,489]

1 hour ago, wolfriverjoe said:

US intel also got it right when they predicted Putin would invade Ukraine.

Few other folks agreed, but it turned out the US was right....

Telling the whole world that we had advance knowledge of what the Iranians (and the Russians back in 2022) were going to do.

Almost as if there's a message in that.

"Dear Bad Guys,

We know what you are going to do.
We know how you are going to do it.
We know when you are going to do it.

Love,
USA."

I think there both a mischaracterisation and overstatement going on there. British intelligence also got predictions of Russian invasion spot on and were publicising them beforehand, and I'd be surprised if many other Russia experts in other western agencies didn't have the same conclusions.

The problem is, what did it matter? The British government appeared to simply refuse to believe it was true, and the US government seemed to think that "we know what you're doing" and a few token extra arms deliveries would be enough to deter Putin from following through. If the purpose of an intelligence agency is simply to know what's happening, then ok, great. But without being able to convince the decision makers of anything, what's the point?

The other thing that US and other intel agency's did get wrong was drastic underestimation of Zelensky and Ukraine's will and ability to resist, which really, really slowed down the level of support in the early days. I'm pretty sure there was a general feeling that any really expensive high tech weaponry given to Ukraine was simply going to get captured by the Russians when Kyiv was overrun. The ramifications of those delays are huge.

Edited April 15, 2024 by jakee

[gowlerk 2,190]

3 minutes ago, jakee said:

The other thing that US and other intel agency's did get wrong was drastic underestimation of Zelensky and Ukraine's will and ability to resist, which relly, really slowed down the level of support in the early days. I'm pretty sure there was a general feeling that any really expensive hight tech weaponry given to Ukraine was simply going to get captured by the Russians when Kyiv was overrun. The ramifications of those delays are huge.

Yes, and we all thought that the Russian military was competent. We were wrong.

[Phil1111 1,149]

4 hours ago, gowlerk said:

Yes, and we all thought that the Russian military was competent. We were wrong.

The US defense industry spent billions on lobbyists in order to spread fear of the big red Russian war machine.

[normiss 798]

2 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

The US defense industry spent billions on lobbyists in order to spread fear of the big red Russian war machine.

The US defense industry and military complex is a VERY profitable process.

[Phil1111 1,149]

10 minutes ago, normiss said:

The US defense industry and military complex is a VERY profitable process.

They had me convinced Russia was a credible military force. US arms exports rose to a new record last year $238 billion. With the US capturing 41% of all sales.

Somehow I think Russia will have a harder and harder time peddling weapons to the world. As if they had spare capacity.