Symptoms

[wmw999 2,447]

I know that some people don’t think they have a cold until a doctor takes a culture. Since they don’t go to the doctor, well, they’ve never had a cold, and colds aren’t real. Iterate for COVID and climate change.

This story in Time refers to where I used to live in the south of Brazil. One friend’s son has probably lost his farm (other than the actual land, but buildings and infrastructure are probably gone). Her mother was rescued from her second story apartment by being carried down, then boated via two boats and an ambulance. Her mother’s reaction was “there are so many nice people.” Her brother’s apartment building is flooded on the ground floor.

Several of my friends are without water at all, or drinkable water, for the foreseeable future. House damage with others. These are the educated and well-off. Now imagine the poorer people living in lower-lying areas.

Now consider that there was flooding there last year when I was there that killed about 40 people.

This is a chronically lightly-flooding area, kind of like parts of Houston. It’s where people live and have jobs and family; “choosing better,” uprooting, moving elsewhere and finding new work, housing, and connections isn’t just a simple matter of when.

 Those of you who consider climate change to be a liberal plot to steal your freedom, you’re wrong. Just because you don’t have COVID today doesn’t mean it’s not real, and that it doesn’t affect others differently.

They’re real people, not just nameless foreigners who chose poorly when it came to being born  

Wendy P. 

[winsor 236]

15 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

I know that some people don’t think they have a cold until a doctor takes a culture. Since they don’t go to the doctor, well, they’ve never had a cold, and colds aren’t real. Iterate for COVID and climate change.

This story in Time refers to where I used to live in the south of Brazil. One friend’s son has probably lost his farm (other than the actual land, but buildings and infrastructure are probably gone). Her mother was rescued from her second story apartment by being carried down, then boated via two boats and an ambulance. Her mother’s reaction was “there are so many nice people.” Her brother’s apartment building is flooded on the ground floor.

Several of my friends are without water at all, or drinkable water, for the foreseeable future. House damage with others. These are the educated and well-off. Now imagine the poorer people living in lower-lying areas.

Now consider that there was flooding there last year when I was there that killed about 40 people.

This is a chronically lightly-flooding area, kind of like parts of Houston. It’s where people live and have jobs and family; “choosing better,” uprooting, moving elsewhere and finding new work, housing, and connections isn’t just a simple matter of when.

 Those of you who consider climate change to be a liberal plot to steal your freedom, you’re wrong. Just because you don’t have COVID today doesn’t mean it’s not real, and that it doesn’t affect others differently.

They’re real people, not just nameless foreigners who chose poorly when it came to being born  

Wendy P. 

Where I find fault with your logic is in the oversimplification of the issues, that one either accepts orthodoxy of one sort or another or is in the "anti" camp.

There is often a third 'C) Other' option, which takes into account a different perspective.

"Climate Change" is a prime example, where one might take it to be a given, yet seem the presentation of Al Gore, 'The Day After Tomorrow' and so forth to be comic book pseudo science (Superman going faster than light to turn back time and what have you).

In Systems Analysis a Single Input Single Output model is the Holy Grail, where the transform results in an Identity Matrix (ones along the diagonal and zeroes elsewhere, resulting in a SISO relationship).  In medicine this amounts to a treatment with zero side effects or interactions.

In practice one is delighted to get Jordan form, which includes the odd derivative. In medicine this is more like the disease being generally worse than the cure.

The reality is that you often have more equations than you have unknowns, and some factors are thus treated as constants.  If this approach works, great.  When it doesn't, it's anyone's guess what's at play.

This is where systems of belief come into play.  Having the temerity to ask for the data becomes heretical; one does not have to claim you're wrong to note that the model and data are indeterminate.  Correlation does not imply causation and all that.

To suggest that someone who questions the popular analysis thereby disputes the raw data is disingenuous.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

[lippy 918]

3 minutes ago, winsor said:

Where I find fault with your logic is in the oversimplification of the issues, that one either accepts orthodoxy of one sort or another or is in the "anti" camp.

There is often a third 'C) Other' option, which takes into account a different perspective.

"Climate Change" is a prime example, where one might take it to be a given, yet seem the presentation of Al Gore, 'The Day After Tomorrow' and so forth to be comic book pseudo science (Superman going faster than light to turn back time and what have you).

In Systems Analysis a Single Input Single Output model is the Holy Grail, where the transform results in an Identity Matrix (ones along the diagonal and zeroes elsewhere, resulting in a SISO relationship).  In medicine this amounts to a treatment with zero side effects or interactions.

In practice one is delighted to get Jordan form, which includes the odd derivative. In medicine this is more like the disease being generally worse than the cure.

The reality is that you often have more equations than you have unknowns, and some factors are thus treated as constants.  If this approach works, great.  When it doesn't, it's anyone's guess what's at play.

This is where systems of belief come into play.  Having the temerity to ask for the data becomes heretical; one does not have to claim you're wrong to note that the model and data are indeterminate.  Correlation does not imply causation and all that.

To suggest that someone who questions the popular analysis thereby disputes the raw data is disingenuous.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

As always, your ability to use hundreds of words to say nothing is unrivaled.  You want to both deny the existence of actual data when presented, and also claim that it's heretical to ask for data.  

[wmw999 2,447]

Winsor, I didn’t say what you’re implying I did. Brent is the specialist in single input/single output “analysis” of climate change. This is a forum; tl:dr is a likely response  

Brazil is also complicit in climate change, whatever its manifestation; rapid population growth and deforestation of the Amazon counts. It’s in part a reaction to the “fuck you, we got ours, you have to protect your resources rather than using them because the richer world already sailed that ship away.”

The danger of any position is that the drawing of lines tends to group unlike quantities together. Ask a devout Muslim or Jew about the difference between an Episcopalian and a member of Westboro Baptist Church and the answer might well be “ doesn’t matter, they’re both Christians.” Which, as long as they’re both far away, is probably OK. But who would you rather have on city council or a school board? I try not to box individuals in; I’d appreciate the favor of consideration 

Wendy P.