Trump

[winsor 236]

1 hour ago, tkhayes said:

you keep using the word 'disastrous' without providing anything to support such strong language.  fer fuck's sake, GWB took us into two wars based on fucking lies, killed a million civilians and thousands of americans in those wars, which went on for 20+ years and cost us well over $10T.  you survived that and you and the country are still here, functioning. 

I am pretty sure that your morning this morning was the same pretty much as every morning you have had in the past 3 decades.

cry wolf..... if our choices today are 'disastrous', then I expect and ask for some examples that are at least on par with the war crimes of GWB.....

I have been in countries where the currency imploded effectively 100%, and the results weren't pretty.

Keynesian economics is generally viewed as debt to prime the pump when things are tough and paying it off when things are better.

We take on massive debt as a matter of course and pull out the stops when we encounter snags.

We have, in the interest of equality of outcome, identifed stupidity as a virtue and use denial as a means of dealing with unpleasant realities.

A review of historical record shows a variety of societies that have put themselves as far behind the curve as have we, and in every instance it ended badly.

Thank you for reminding me that This Time It's Different™!  I forgot.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

20 minutes ago, winsor said:

I have been in countries where the currency imploded effectively 100%, and the results weren't pretty.

Keynesian economics is generally viewed as debt to prime the pump when things are tough and paying it off when things are better.

We take on massive debt as a matter of course and pull out the stops when we encounter snags.

We have, in the interest of equality of outcome, identifed stupidity as a virtue and use denial as a means of dealing with unpleasant realities.

A review of historical record shows a variety of societies that have put themselves as far behind the curve as have we, and in every instance it ended badly.

I forget, but weren't you the one complaining about something being vague and just to be specific and state it?

So, which country are you drawing a parallel to?

What specific stage of that country's history do you believe is equivalent to where the US is now and why?

[tkhayes 348]

51 minutes ago, winsor said:

I have been in countries where the currency imploded effectively 100%, and the results weren't pretty.

Keynesian economics is generally viewed as debt to prime the pump when things are tough and paying it off when things are better.

We take on massive debt as a matter of course and pull out the stops when we encounter snags.

We have, in the interest of equality of outcome, identified stupidity as a virtue and use denial as a means of dealing with unpleasant realities.

A review of historical record shows a variety of societies that have put themselves as far behind the curve as have we, and in every instance it ended badly.

Thank you for reminding me that This Time It's Different™!  I forgot.

word salad..... you are saying nothing specific while still using 'disastrous' as your baseline, but you cannot point to any specific data, or scenario that could come to pass....  In the meantime, I am going fishing, I might even open a bottle of wine.

In other words, nothing disastrous, just a normal day.... like I expect yours is.

[winsor 236]

1 hour ago, SkyDekker said:

I forget, but weren't you the one complaining about something being vague and just to be specific and state it?

So, which country are you drawing a parallel to?

What specific stage of that country's history do you believe is equivalent to where the US is now and why?

A couple that come to mind are Germany and Yugoslavia.  In both countries the currency became wallpaper.

I don't believe anything, and one of the confounding factors is the Bretton Woods accords, making the US Dollar the basis for global monetary systems, followed by the emergence of the Petro dollar after Dick Nixon took us off the gold standard.

If, for reasons any good novelist could generate, the US Dollar was no longer accepted outside the US, things could get interesting.  If you imagine an economic quarantine, where zero ships were coming and going from our ports or oil terminals, the results would not be hard to enumerate. 

We're producing a fair amount of petroleum now, but we're still using more than we produce, last time I checked.  We're apparently a net importer of food.  Unless a manufacturer has started up,we don't make flat screen displays.

Shoes? Clothing? Shoe factories in New England have almost all been repurposed and the 'Garment District' in New York is anything but.

I knew Germans who were living the life of Reilly in 1922 but went on an involuntary diet within a year.  Some 650,000 Germans reportedly died from starvation or starvation related illness thereafter.  Due to laws in place Jews were spared to some extent, but even donating half of their income to soup kitchens and other relief didn't do much, and people at the brink of starvation developed seething hatred for people who looked fat and happy while they were dying.

When things got better, there was still a feral drive for payback, and the results are still with us.

Where are we in this scenario?  I think we have too much in common with high rollers with limitless markers.  We are convinced that we're winners because the house keeps bringing us drinks and slinky women keep rubbing up against us, but a quick running of the numbers says that we can never break even.

My guess is that you're pretty bright, and it concerns me that all of this isn't obvious to you.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

[JerryBaumchen 1,354]

56 minutes ago, winsor said:

A couple that come to mind are Germany and Yugoslavia.  In both countries the currency became wallpaper.

I don't believe anything, and one of the confounding factors is the Bretton Woods accords, making the US Dollar the basis for global monetary systems, followed by the emergence of the Petro dollar after Dick Nixon took us off the gold standard.

If, for reasons any good novelist could generate, the US Dollar was no longer accepted outside the US, things could get interesting.  If you imagine an economic quarantine, where zero ships were coming and going from our ports or oil terminals, the results would not be hard to enumerate. 

We're producing a fair amount of petroleum now, but we're still using more than we produce, last time I checked.  We're apparently a net importer of food.  Unless a manufacturer has started up,we don't make flat screen displays.

Shoes? Clothing? Shoe factories in New England have almost all been repurposed and the 'Garment District' in New York is anything but.

I knew Germans who were living the life of Reilly in 1922 but went on an involuntary diet within a year.  Some 650,000 Germans reportedly died from starvation or starvation related illness thereafter.  Due to laws in place Jews were spared to some extent, but even donating half of their income to soup kitchens and other relief didn't do much, and people at the brink of starvation developed seething hatred for people who looked fat and happy while they were dying.

When things got better, there was still a feral drive for payback, and the results are still with us.

Where are we in this scenario?  I think we have too much in common with high rollers with limitless markers.  We are convinced that we're winners because the house keeps bringing us drinks and slinky women keep rubbing up against us, but a quick running of the numbers says that we can never break even.

My guess is that you're pretty bright, and it concerns me that all of this isn't obvious to you.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

Hi Winsor,

While I agree that this country could do better when it comes to the national debt; I find your rantings strange.

Re:  If, for reasons any good novelist could generate, the US Dollar was no longer accepted outside the US, things could get interesting.

That is one big IF.  Even when Nixon took us off of the gold standard, that good old US $20 bill was taken with little concern.

I've travelled a fair amount in North America, South America, Europe & Asia.  I have never had any problem with my US currency.

Our economy is sound.  It could be better.  That alone is why IMO you are talking about one big IF.

Or, maybe you are talking about a novelist who only writes fiction.

We could be better; but, we are not the Gloom & Doom you seem to like to write about.

Jerry Baumchen

 

[JerryBaumchen 1,354]

Hi folks,

Trump is starting to sound like a Democrat:

Trump signals support for Florida abortion amendment 4, but campaign walks back : NPR

Trump says he'll support free IVF treatments in a second term : NPR

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  He once did try to run for POTUS as a Democrat.  Hmmmmm

 

[winsor 236]

2 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Winsor,

While I agree that this country could do better when it comes to the national debt; I find your rantings strange.

Re:  If, for reasons any good novelist could generate, the US Dollar was no longer accepted outside the US, things could get interesting.

That is one big IF.  Even when Nixon took us off of the gold standard, that good old US $20 bill was taken with little concern.

I've travelled a fair amount in North America, South America, Europe & Asia.  I have never had any problem with my US currency.

Our economy is sound.  It could be better.  That alone is why IMO you are talking about one big IF.

Or, maybe you are talking about a novelist who only writes fiction.

We could be better; but, we are not the Gloom & Doom you seem to like to write about.

Jerry Baumchen

 

The country's in debt to the tune of a third of a million dollars per taxpayer, all government functions are paid for with further debt and there is no plan for digging out of the hole in which we are.

I guess ignorance is bliss against realities as nasty as these.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

1 hour ago, winsor said:

and people at the brink of starvation developed seething hatred for people who looked fat and happy while they were dying.

When things got better, there was still a feral drive for payback, and the results are still with us.

Where are we in this scenario?  I think we have too much in common with high rollers with limitless markers.  We are convinced that we're winners because the house keeps bringing us drinks and slinky women keep rubbing up against us, but a quick running of the numbers says that we can never break even.

Appreciate the post.

I agree with you that the US is at a bit of a tipping point and I agree that a wide and deep divide between teh "haves" and "have nots" can create violent and long term consequences. Where you and I appear to disagree is that all hope is lost and it doesn't matter which party you vote for.

The Republicans have a very long history of taking from the middle class and basically "giving" it to the wealthy. The "trickle down economics" introduced by Reagan are solid evidence of that. Under Republicans the middle class, specially the lower middle class, does worse and the already wealthy get significantly wealthier. Under the last Republican candidate the only significant piece of legislation passed did the exact same again, expanded the debt burden disproportionately carried by the "have nots" and lined the pockets of the "haves". Under that candidate the divide grew again. There is nothing to suggest it would be any different if re-elected. Quite frankly it is very clear that under his presidency that divide will grow significantly.

The Democrats have a long history of trying to take from the "haves" and provide to the "have nots". They are the only party looking to decrease the divide and try and build a bit more of a harmonious society, which would significantly lower the risk you highlight in your post. Now some or maybe even all of their policies may not be successful or maybe even palatable, but they are trying.

Hence, I vehemently disagree that a vote for either party is the same, or that the US is doomed regardless of the outcome of this election. History suggest that under R the risks will grow and could come to fruition and that under D the risks could decrease and might not come to fruition. I don't see how one would vote for anything other than Democrat once you have identified the risks you have.

I will stay away from the policies around the control and submission of women espoused by Republicans, however that alone really should be a disqualifier AND a clear indication both sides are NOT the same.

[winsor 236]

10 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Appreciate the post.

I agree with you that the US is at a bit of a tipping point and I agree that a wide and deep divide between teh "haves" and "have nots" can create violent and long term consequences. Where you and I appear to disagree is that all hope is lost and it doesn't matter which party you vote for.

The Republicans have a very long history of taking from the middle class and basically "giving" it to the wealthy. The "trickle down economics" introduced by Reagan are solid evidence of that. Under Republicans the middle class, specially the lower middle class, does worse and the already wealthy get significantly wealthier. Under the last Republican candidate the only significant piece of legislation passed did the exact same again, expanded the debt burden disproportionately carried by the "have nots" and lined the pockets of the "haves". Under that candidate the divide grew again. There is nothing to suggest it would be any different if re-elected. Quite frankly it is very clear that under his presidency that divide will grow significantly.

The Democrats have a long history of trying to take from the "haves" and provide to the "have nots". They are the only party looking to decrease the divide and try and build a bit more of a harmonious society, which would significantly lower the risk you highlight in your post. Now some or maybe even all of their policies may not be successful or maybe even palatable, but they are trying.

Hence, I vehemently disagree that a vote for either party is the same, or that the US is doomed regardless of the outcome of this election. History suggest that under R the risks will grow and could come to fruition and that under D the risks could decrease and might not come to fruition. I don't see how one would vote for anything other than Democrat once you have identified the risks you have.

I will stay away from the policies around the control and submission of women espoused by Republicans, however that alone really should be a disqualifier AND a clear indication both sides are NOT the same.

I support fiscal conservative and social liberal policies.  What consenting adults do behind closed doors is none of my business, and likely constitutes To Much Information.

I really didn't give a rat's ass when one of our flight attendants opted for sex-change surgery, but I took exception to having to pay for it.  I also consider it insanity to support sex-changes for children.  Once you're 18 and on your own?  Knock yourself out.

Lyndon Johnson's Great Society did more damage to Black society than anything the KKK could come up with.  With the Best of Intentions, policies were put in place that enforced Victimhood in the Black community and deconstructed its family structure.

If you look at poverty as a function of being an unwed mother, the correlation is color blind.

Republicans focus on issues that puzzle me.  Having a first trimester abortion seems infinitely preferable to a life of poverty and a child without a father.  Certainly people have come from broken homes and become model citizens, but that really isn't the way to bet.

Anyway, my point is not that it is immaterial which party you support, it is that the character of the the toxicity is different between them.  They both suck, the only difference is which issue is a deal breaker when it comes time to vote.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

 

[kallend 2,026]

2 hours ago, winsor said:

A couple that come to mind are Germany and Yugoslavia.  In both countries the currency became wallpaper.

. . . . 

 

I recall people saying that it would happen to us back before Reagan's time.  Then he went and tripled the debt.

Sorry, but not holding my breath waiting for the $ to collapse.

[JerryBaumchen 1,354]

1 hour ago, winsor said:

The country's in debt to the tune of a third of a million dollars per taxpayer, all government functions are paid for with further debt and there is no plan for digging out of the hole in which we are.

I guess ignorance is bliss against realities as nasty as these.

Hi winsor,

Your reply to my post has nothing to do with what I posted.

Your rantings are strange.

Jerry Baumchen

[ryoder 1,590]

1 hour ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

Trump is starting to sound like a Democrat:

Trump signals support for Florida abortion amendment 4, but campaign walks back : NPR

Trump says he'll support free IVF treatments in a second term : NPR

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  He once did try to run for POTUS as a Democrat.  Hmmmmm

 

That was yesterday's news.

Now today:

Trump says he'll vote against Florida amendment enshrining abortion rights

[winsor 236]

1 hour ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Winsor,

While I agree that this country could do better when it comes to the national debt; I find your rantings strange.

Re:  If, for reasons any good novelist could generate, the US Dollar was no longer accepted outside the US, things could get interesting.

That is one big IF.  Even when Nixon took us off of the gold standard, that good old US $20 bill was taken with little concern.

I've travelled a fair amount in North America, South America, Europe & Asia.  I have never had any problem with my US currency.

Our economy is sound.  It could be better.  That alone is why IMO you are talking about one big IF.

Or, maybe you are talking about a novelist who only writes fiction.

We could be better; but, we are not the Gloom & Doom you seem to like to write about.

Jerry Baumchen

 

The 'if' upon which you have fixated is a basis for performing a material balance around the US.  Standard practice in some engineering disciplines.  The novelist part is to put off getting hung up on one black swan or another.

The reason the greenback has done well is Bretton Woods/Petro dollar, so far so good.

Bernie Madoff asked, ask he was led away, 'why are you mad at me? The US Government is a Ponzi scheme.'

My point is that the infinite wellspring of pretend currency cannot support us indefinitely.  We require more and more, and the question is not if but when and how bad.

No bubble can inflate indefinitely,  so it doesn't take a lot of insight to note that this bubble is guaranteed to pop.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

[nigel99 466]

1 hour ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi winsor,

Your reply to my post has nothing to do with what I posted.

Your rantings are strange.

Jerry Baumchen

Actually his post explains a lot I think and probably why Trumpononics appeals.

To summarise and paraphrase it. The US currency must be the global currency of choice and any threat to that is scary. 

Everything should be made in America, because having things like TV’s made in China is bad for Americans. 

The strangeness comes across because it’s a fantasy. A utopia with the benefits of globalisation and isolationism and none of the downsides for either. 

[JoeWeber 2,720]

2 minutes ago, nigel99 said:

Actually his post explains a lot I think and probably why Trumpononics appeals.

To summarise and paraphrase it. The US currency must be the global currency of choice and any threat to that is scary. 

Everything should be made in America, because having things like TV’s made in China is bad for Americans. 

The strangeness comes across because it’s a fantasy. A utopia with the benefits of globalisation and isolationism and none of the downsides for either. 

It was previously believed the universe couldn’t expand indefinitely, too.

[winsor 236]

4 minutes ago, nigel99 said:

Actually his post explains a lot I think and probably why Trumpononics appeals.

To summarise and paraphrase it. The US currency must be the global currency of choice and any threat to that is scary. 

Everything should be made in America, because having things like TV’s made in China is bad for Americans. 

The strangeness comes across because it’s a fantasy. A utopia with the benefits of globalisation and isolationism and none of the downsides for either. 

Boy, you couldn't have it more backwards on purpose.  Are you intentionally being obtuse?

[gowlerk 2,190]

7 hours ago, winsor said:

We have, in the interest of equality of outcome, identifed stupidity as a virtue and use denial as a means of dealing with unpleasant realities.

And you call it "supply side economics". 

[nigel99 466]

2 hours ago, kallend said:

I recall people saying that it would happen to us back before Reagan's time.  Then he went and tripled the debt.

Sorry, but not holding my breath waiting for the $ to collapse.

Well Trump the successful businessman will fix it all! Just look at how successful he is, this is the DJT media profitably 

Net profit margin	-1,955.79%

I’m not sure I’ve seen profit margins like that before. 

[Phil1111 1,149]

5 hours ago, winsor said:

The country's in debt to the tune of a third of a million dollars per taxpayer, all government functions are paid for with further debt and there is no plan for digging out of the hole in which we are.

I guess ignorance is bliss against realities as nasty as these.

Its $104k per person so it could be $500k per taxpayer but that omits corporate taxation-identities. In addition there is tariffs and other government revenues, i.e. land lease, drilling rights, etc.So individual taxpayers don't have to service all that debt. Personal income tax is about 35% of govt revenues.

"The Corporate Tax Rate in the United States stands at 21 percent. Corporate Tax Rate in the United States averaged 32.08 percent from 1909 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 52.80 percent in 1968 and a record low of 1.00 percent in 1910. source: Internal Revenue Service."

If the US dollar was not the reserve currency for the world interest rates could be 1-1.5% higher for US borrowers. IMO the debt is a concern but its not yet dangerous at 122% of GDP. US taxpayers have along ways to go to pay the tax levels of Scandinavian countries. The US rate of 43% is about 10% less than the Nordic countries.

[JoeWeber 2,720]

5 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

Its $104k per person so it could be $500k per taxpayer but that omits corporate taxation-identities. In addition there is tariffs and other government revenues, i.e. land lease, drilling rights, etc.So individual taxpayers don't have to service all that debt. Personal income tax is about 35% of govt revenues.

"The Corporate Tax Rate in the United States stands at 21 percent. Corporate Tax Rate in the United States averaged 32.08 percent from 1909 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 52.80 percent in 1968 and a record low of 1.00 percent in 1910. source: Internal Revenue Service."

If the US dollar was not the reserve currency for the world interest rates could be 1-1.5% higher for US borrowers. IMO the debt is a concern but its not yet dangerous at 122% of GDP. US taxpayers have along ways to go to pay the tax levels of Scandinavian countries. The US rate of 43% is about 10% less than the Nordic countries.

True but it's still on topic to do a hyper intellectual freakout, I guess. History is informative up until it ain't. 

[Phil1111 1,149]

3 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

True but it's still on topic to do a hyper intellectual freakout, I guess. History is informative up until it ain't. 

Agree. In medieval times during unusual events people would run around in circles screaming that the sky was falling. Now we know better and take airplanes up into the sky to fall ourselves.

Con men and carnival barkers still find it useful to scare people for their personal political advantage.Or sell them snake oil rebranded on FOX networks.

[wmw999 2,439]

1 hour ago, Phil1111 said:

Con men and carnival barkers still find it useful to scare people

Because safety is the largest piece of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs after physiological needs. Scaring people is powerful.

Wendy P. 

[winsor 236]

17 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

Because safety is the largest piece of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs after physiological needs. Scaring people is powerful.

Wendy P. 

Unfortunately, some fears are justified.  The superstitions of sailors and soldiers, for example, are mechanisms to address realities that are, and should be, terrifying.

[jakee 1,489]

44 minutes ago, winsor said:

Unfortunately, some fears are justified.  The superstitions of sailors and soldiers, for example, are mechanisms to address realities that are, and should be, terrifying.

By completely misunderstanding the reality of the situation and applying a nonsensical and ineffective solution. Killing an albatross won't really make your ship sink and voting Harris won't really bring on the end of the republic.

[normiss 798]

22 hours ago, ryoder said:

That was yesterday's news.

Now today:

Trump says he'll vote against Florida amendment enshrining abortion rights

Being an unsentenced felon, not yet serving out his sentence, is he even eligible to vote in FL?

Felons in FL have to complete their sentence, probation, and pay all fines and fees - he's not there yet.

I don't understand anything in the abnormal Trump world.