Slowest start to Atlantic hurricane season…

[brenthutch 444]

In more than a decade, confounding the experts who predicted we could see our first named storm as early as May.

”The more we know we learn just how little we know” (paraphrasing A.E.)

Edited June 12, 2024 by brenthutch

[Stumpy 284]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-06-11-atlantic-hurricane-season-first-storm-wait-meaning

[olofscience 480]

Didn't you post the same thing last year? How did that work out for you?  (spoiler: badly)

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

21 minutes ago, Stumpy said:

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-06-11-atlantic-hurricane-season-first-storm-wait-meaning

Oh there you go again.

Using facts.
Actual DATA.

Brent don't need no steenking facts!!!

[kallend 2,027]

56 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Trolls don't need no steenking facts!!!

FIFY

[olofscience 480]

Last year, how it started - Brent posted on July 23rd about how quiet it was in the Atlantic.

How it ended - by August 30th the Atlantic was VERY active, and Brent was nowhere to be found.

And I said:

On 9/8/2023 at 5:23 PM, olofscience said:

Poor brent's predictions have aged very, very badly.

 

But I guess to keep lying to himself, he'll probably start his "hurricane season" threads around April or May so he can gloat about there being no hurricanes.

 

My prediction has mostly panned out! We're only a few days past May and Brent has already made his hurricane post 

[brenthutch 444]

9 hours ago, olofscience said:

Last year, how it started - Brent posted on July 23rd about how quiet it was in the Atlantic.

How it ended - by August 30th the Atlantic was VERY active, and Brent was nowhere to be found.

And I said:

 

My prediction has mostly panned out! We're only a few days past May and Brent has already made his hurricane post 

What you guys are all missing, is there has been NO TREND in Atlantic cyclones due to higher levels of CO2. For that matter NOAA and the IPCC have observed no statistically significant increase in any meteorological phenomenon. It would seem that the much ballyhooed “climate catastrophe” is just a big nothing burger. It looks like Olof is going to go from  to. Kallend OTOH is a deep thinking intellectual whose brilliant insights are breathtaking . “He’s a Troll, he’s a Troll, he’s a Troll, he’s a Troll” is truly inspirational content.

Edited June 14, 2024 by brenthutch

[BIGUN 1,317]

9 hours ago, brenthutch said:

For that matter NOAA and the IPCC have observed no statistically significant increase in any meteorological phenomenon. 

As soon as you don't cite your source; everyone's spidey sense starts pegging out. Here's the IPCC's thoughts on the matter. Course it's a long read, so you'll probably dismiss it.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/

Everyone has areas of strengths and weaknesses. I am not a scientist and so; I have to rely on them pointing me in the right direction. From there, it requires a lot of reading and reflection. The point of this is; you're a guy that has done good things in this life. Ranger, MBA, good family, property investments, etc. But, this continued assault on global warming when all the data is contradictory; makes you an easy target.  

Brent, it's not like you're making a mistake. You continuously beat the same drum after everyone has cited sources to the contrary and then you act stunned they call you troll.  

[olofscience 480]

11 hours ago, brenthutch said:

there has been NO TREND

How would you know, you could barely add two numbers together 

 

11 hours ago, brenthutch said:

It looks like Olof is going to go from  to

Why would I cry if there are fewer destructive hurricanes causing property damage? I'm not you, I'd be happy about that.

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

16 minutes ago, olofscience said:

Why would I cry if there are fewer destructive hurricanes causing property damage? I'm not you, I'd be happy about that.

Well, it's not a hurricane, or even a tropical disturbance, but southern Florida is getting inundated. 

Record rainfalls and some pretty significant flooding.

Link: https://apnews.com/article/rain-florida-flooding-hurricane-season-bb31b2d8ac01ee1300642ce674c6e61c

From the story: 

Quote

Rico, of One Master Trucking Corp., was born and raised in Miami and said he was ready for the emergency.

“You know when its coming,” he said. “Every year it’s just getting worse, and for some reason people just keep going through the puddles.”

 

On Thursday morning, Daniela Urrieche, 26, was bailing water out of her SUV, which got stuck on a flooded street as she drove home from work on Wednesday afternoon.

“In the nine years that I’ve lived here, this has been the worst,” she said. “Even in a hurricane, streets were not as bad as it was in the past 24 hours.”

 

[brenthutch 444]

2 hours ago, BIGUN said:

As soon as you don't cite your source; everyone's spidey sense starts pegging out. Here's the IPCC's thoughts on the matter. Course it's a long read, so you'll probably dismiss it.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/

Everyone has areas of strengths and weaknesses. I am not a scientist and so; I have to rely on them pointing me in the right direction. From there, it requires a lot of reading and reflection. The point of this is; you're a guy that has done good things in this life. Ranger, MBA, good family, property investments, etc. But, this continued assault on global warming when all the data is contradictory; makes you an easy target.  

Brent, it's not like you're making a mistake. You continuously beat the same drum after everyone has cited sources to the contrary and then you act stunned they call you troll.  

From your link 

The SREX (Seneviratne et al., 2012) assessed low confidence for observed changes in the magnitude or frequency of floods at the global scale

Evidence on observed drought trends was limited at the time of SREX (Chapter 3) and AR5 (Chapter 2). The SREX concluded: ‘There is medium confidence that since the 1950s some regions of the world have experienced a trend to more intense and longer droughts, in particular in southern Europe and west Africa, but in some regions droughts have become less frequent, less intense, or shorter,

There is low confidence in most reported long-term (multi-decadal to centennial) trends in TC frequency- or intensity

Observed trends in severe convective storms are highly regionally dependent. In the USA, it is indicated that there is no significant increase in convective storms, and hail and severe thunderstorms 

. The AR5 reported a weakening of mean and maximum winds from the 1960s or 1970s to the early 2000s in the tropics and mid-latitudes, and increases in high latitudes, but with low confidence in changes in the observed surface winds over land

That is not me it comes from the IPCC.  The problem is that too many folks don’t know the difference between an observation and a prediction.

More from the national hurricane center today 

There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time.

There are no tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific at this time

There are no tropical cyclones in the Central North Pacific at this time.

 

 

 

[olofscience 480]

9 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

The problem is that too many folks don’t know the difference between an observation and a prediction.

The problem is that my observation is you're doing this more than a month earlier than last year:

How did that season end, again? 

[brenthutch 444]

Just now, olofscience said:

The problem is that my observation is you're doing this more than a month earlier than last year:

How did that season end, again? 

Within the range of historical norms. Why do you ask? Are you claiming something about last year’s hurricane season was unprecedented?

[olofscience 480]

3 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Are you claiming something about last year’s hurricane season was unprecedented?

Wow, you're really desperate to make shit up that I didn't say, huh  only chance you'll win this argument is by making the other side's arguments up yourself

 

So, why are you posting this before we're halfway through June? Last year it was around end of July. It's almost like there's a TREND (that I predicted, by the way)

[brenthutch 444]

11 minutes ago, olofscience said:

Wow, you're really desperate to make shit up that I didn't say, huh  only chance you'll win this argument is by making the other side's arguments up yourself

 

Yeah you talk a lot but you don’t actually say anything.

 

[olofscience 480]

Of course now, I'm going to have to modify my prediction for 2025 - because Brent has now been stung by acting as I predicted, he will then try to disrupt the trend by being far more conscious of when he starts his usual hurricane thread. (either posting around the same time, or leaving it a bit later, but not too late). Or maybe even go earlier, if he reads this particular post and wants a "gotcha" next year - times are pretty hard for climate change deniers these days.

[brenthutch 444]

1 hour ago, olofscience said:

Of course now, I'm going to have to modify my prediction for 2025 - because Brent has now been stung by acting as I predicted, he will then try to disrupt the trend by being far more conscious of when he starts his usual hurricane thread. (either posting around the same time, or leaving it a bit later, but not too late). Or maybe even go earlier, if he reads this particular post and wants a "gotcha" next year - times are pretty hard for climate change deniers these days.

The only prediction I recall you making, was that we would all be driving EVs by now.

[Stumpy 284]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

The only prediction I recall you making, was that we would all be driving EVs by now.

If olof said that (which I doubt - but quote the post if you can, I'll wait), its still a shit-tonne more accurate than anything you've said in the last few years.

[gowlerk 2,198]

2 hours ago, olofscience said:

Of course now, I'm going to have to modify my prediction for 2025 - because Brent has now been stung by acting as I predicted, he will then try to disrupt the trend by being far more conscious of when he starts his usual hurricane thread.

I believe he can only post when he is not on one of his frequent time outs. That may be a large influence on his schedule.

[olofscience 480]

33 minutes ago, Stumpy said:

If olof said that (which I doubt - but quote the post if you can, I'll wait), its still a shit-tonne more accurate than anything you've said in the last few years.

Brent will reply to this with his usual list of useless "predictions" which nobody really disputes (CO2 will increase, fossil fuel use will increase, that polar bear stuff).

He's predictable like that.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

5 hours ago, brenthutch said:

The SREX (Seneviratne et al., 2012) assessed low confidence for observed changes in the magnitude or frequency of floods at the global scale

from that link:

It is an established fact that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have led to an increased frequency and/or intensity of some weather and climate extremes since pre-industrial time, in particular for temperature extremes.

[olofscience 480]

27 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

from that link:

Brent only understands the street meaning of "low confidence", not its scientific context. He doesn't have a clue about probability and statistics (basic arithmetic is already stretching it).

Kind of like when the Covid-19 vaccine had 90+% effectiveness, and all the conspiracy theorists were screaming why it wasn't 100%?

[billvon 2,995]

It is worth noting that they currently have a high confidence in climate change increasing the amount of rain in precipitation events.  And with much of south Florida underwater again only a year after the last precipitation disaster, people are seeing the results of that climate change firsthand.

[wmw999 2,451]

Hasn’t hit Happy Valley yet

Wendy P.

[BIGUN 1,317]

23 hours ago, brenthutch said:

From your link 

Brent, you didn't read it to learn; you read it to find something that fits your narrative.